Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

14 April 2008

Arkansas Derby Thoughts

There was five speed horses in the ARK Derby and Gayego won the big speed battle and the war. Not only did Gayego run a helluva race but also consider that he was first time shipping, first time dirt and had to outrun his sprint pedigree. Nice performance by Gayego, I like that he repelled Z Fortune late when it looked like he was about to be overhauled. . However this was a huge move forward at one time. The trainer is also a nice guy and I was happy for him. However could he hold that form after all that momentum in the the form cycle? This is like trying to control a kite in a hurricane, his form is too volatile and likely to crash in the next race. Rather see a slow progression rather than a huge race all at once.

One trend I have noticed is that, War Pass, RecapturetheGlory, Big Brown, Gayego are all speed horses. You gonna have all the horses under 10-1 dueling out front like maniacs, tiring themselves out and testing their sprint pedigrees to the max. Right now I am on a closer hunt looking for my final derby horse.

If this race was today my wager would be on Court Vision. This horse just keeps on coming and can run all fricken day. The horse already is a GII winner over the Churchill Strip and will be third off the layoff for the master Mott. Looks like his progression is slow and deliberate. Mott is doing the crackdown now as we speak and we should get more than 20-1 if not 30-1 on derby day.

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