Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

29 May 2010

Pretty ~Play Of The Day

Belmont Park Race 6

Number six Pretty Cozzy here looks like a wire to wire candidate. This filly had some trouble last out "bolted both turns" is not going to get the job done, but perhaps if she is in the mood she can do much better. She certainly has the set-up as she is clearly lone speed; she has every right to assume the role of alpha-mare and take this field unchallenged. She is working well for this race and has taken money every time she has raced. The 10-1 morning line would be great. The poor behavior, the lack of turf success and unknown trainer should guarantee a great price. She could forget to stop this time and light up the tote.

Win #6 Pretty Cozzy

8 2-0-1
strike rate 25%
cumulative return $51.6
$2 ROI $6.45
average winner $25.8


Amateurcapper said...


Is this another inner turf special?

I worry when horses bolt on one turn, let alone two. Do you have any clues why she did?

gc said...

It is races like this that turn horseplayers into nasty old grumps. Pretty Cozzy ran the fastest half mile and six furlongs I have seen in 10 years at Belmont going 1 1/16th miles over the inner. She was bet down from 10-1 to 2-1 and got beat in a dirty photo after being up by 10 lengths at the top of the lane.

9 2-1-1
strike rate 22%
cumulative return $51.6
$2 ROI $5.73
average winner $25.8

Amateurcapper said...


Tough, tough beat. Did you have a personal odds line set where the mare wasn't playable? That kind of movement certainly would have caused me to run away.

My theory on front runners who I perceive to have an edge is that as long as they hold a longshot price, they're left alone. If bet down to a top two or three choice, they get pushed too hard the first or second 1/4 which saps the late energy.

In this case, PRETTY COZY was her own worst enemy. She quickened on her own the second 1/4 and then Coa was committed. For me, a sign of a sore horse like I was worried about in my comment to you.

Your thoughts?

Best of luck with today's offering.

gc said...

She clearly was way bet down way below where I thought she would be when I posted the night before.