Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

05 May 2011

Kentucky Derby Degraded Handicap

A feature in the Daily Racing Form entries that has been a staple for decades and is now in an experimental run here in an effort to expand the horse racing betting bankrolls of all of our fine readers. Here goes nothing.

8. Dialed In (4/1)

The default Derby favorite after the sudden drop of Uncle Mo's stock, he has shown an impressive closing kick and will likely be leading the charge from the back of the pack.

9. Derby Kitten (30/1)

Ran an impressive race in the Lexington on my pace figures and the main knock on the fact that the field he faced not being good is probably superficial. None of these prep races has produced anything worthy of superstar status.

1. Archarcharch (10/1)

Much like the Zito favorite, he is a dual stakes winner in 2011. He is not getting the same amont of respect due to the fact that both were tote board busting victories. The post is terrible, but he is one that could settle back on the rail and have the shortest path to the winner's circle.

19. Nehro (6/1)

This one is the third choice on the morning line despite not having a stakes win to his name. He is probably going to go off at a short price for this type of spot as well with the kind of closing kick he showed in his two stakes defeats.

11. Master of Hounds (30/1)

Included this high because he is the stranger of the bunch. Aidan O'Brien rarely if ever ships over for the Derby and this one apparently is a horse he thinks can win this race. He ran second in the UAE Derby going 1 3/16 miles, so distance should not be a problem the dirt surface is another issue though.

4. Stay Thristy (20/1)

This one has been under the radar with the presence of his well known neighbor Uncle Mo. His form was flattered when Toby's Corner rebounded from the Gotham defeat to win the Wood Memorial.

15. Midnight Interlude (10/1)

Up until April 9th, not a lot of people had this horse on their radar for the Derby. The defection of a few top stars in Southern California changed that outlook quite a bit. He could be coming into his own at the right time or that was a one race wonder. Either way the 10/1 line seems a bit low.

13. Mucho Macho Man (12/1)

Has shown the ability to rate off the speeds and has been working decently leading up to the Derby, he could be overlooked here and the value is there.

18. Uncle Mo (9/2)

How the mighty have fallen, there is a chance he may not run. Only included on here because he is the lowest in the line of probability in likely winners.

A graded handicap would have all twenty runners listed, but at this point trying to make a case for the other 11 is not an easy task at all. All the ones not mentioned above either have zero form or only positive races on the synthetic surfaces with no other redeemable qualities to speak of. You kind of have to feel sorry for the public handicappers who do the graded handicap and go through this mess on a yearly basis.

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