Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

15 May 2011

Preakness Power Longshot

With the Preakness Stakes 2011 looming it is time to share our longshot selection. Astrology is a speedy horse we have been following since he broke his maiden at Saratoga. With projected odds at around 15-1 this new shooter to the triple crown could make Preakness betting very rewarding. After a stakes win at Churchill last year he has followed up with three consecutive second place finishes. This colt has the pedigree and connections to win this race.

Astrology broke his maiden at the Spa in one of those super maiden races; a full field of 14 and he beat future stakes winner To Honor and Serve. This might have been a sprint win but this horse is by Chef de Race A.P. Indy; this a horse bred to go long. With 2011 derby-like tepid pace Astrology could sit a nice trip right off the pace. The threats to win -both closers- Dailed In and Animal Kingdom should leave Astrology alone on the pace.

Astrology can be absolved of his last two losses. His first first loss this year was in the Sunland Derby. Off a long layoff he pressed a wicked 45 and change pace. Rather than fade meekly Astrology still finished strong for the place. Horse thrive on routine and do not like abrupt change. Astrology had to deal with massive change for his next race. From bone dry desert to bog Astrology was shipped to Aqueduct for the waterlogged sloppy Jerome. He finished a gallant second to Adios Charlie who subsequently gave a good account of himself in the Peter Pan at Belmont.

With two races under his belt in this form cycle Astrology should be ready to run his peak race in the Preakness. The connections of trainer Asmussen and Stonestreet stables have won this race two of the last four years with 2007 winner Curlin and 2009 heroine Rachel Alexandra. Astrology has a shot to make it three out of five.


Tony Bada Bing said...

How long of a shot do you think he will be 8-1? maybe 5-1...

gc said...

DRF has Astrology at 15-1 on their Preakness line. I would not accept anything lower than 8-1 for a win wager.

Amateurcapper said...

Certainly, the Peter Pan result makes ASTROLOGY look better. I've been disappointed that he's taken so long to come to hand. I believe he's an intriguing selection and will remember him come Saturday. Thanks for the reminder.

Personally, I'm on SWAY AWAY as of today. Loved his bid/fade in the Arky Derby and believe that will set him up well for the Preakness. Bonde lures Gomez back...they were both pretty high on him after the San Vicente. Got his teeth knocked out and had tons o' trouble in the Rebel to excuse that finish.

I'll box our picks, use AK in between and underneath in exotics. Good luck!

Anonymous said...

Greg, Astrology draws post position 1. Any pluses or minuses with this draw?

G. C. said...

The one hole can be problematic and a double edged sword. Mostly likely to save ground but also most likely to get caught in a switch. Either way not a deal breaker for me.