Category Killer Track~Play Of The Day

Monmouth Park Race 3

Monmouth has traditionally been know as a speed biased surface. East To West is a horse that has a few things going for him at a nice price(10-1). He has speed, is cutting back in distance and dropping in class. He is also the only horse in the field to run in the last month . The cutback from 1 3/16ths to one mile should give him the stamina to win a speed duel with Strait Count. Maybe he runs the rest of the layoff horses off their feet. East to West is a coast to coast candidate.

Win # 3 East To West

stats
7 2-0-1
strike rate 29%
cumulative return $51.6
$2 ROI $7.37
average winner $25.8

Monmouth Park Brings Belmont To Crisis

Take a look at the Monmouth entries for opening day. 5K claimers run for $30K, maiden specials run for $75K while the purse for N1X is $80K. All of the good barns are present; in fact there is a convergence of horsemen as barns from California, the mid Atlantic and New York converge. In a sport where the success of a venue is tied to its ability to latch onto the welfare dole i.e. slots, it is a refreshing to see clear thinking put to action. This mega-meet will surely attract attention; hopefully the horse fans will recognize excellence and reward it with their wagering dollar.

In comparison there is New York, with its political circus of useful idiots, politburo mediocrity and ubiquitous corruption, this is a jurisdiction that could never actualize a plan like "Category-Killer-Monmouth". In New York there is only a collection of individual needs and it is power that holds sway. The common good is not only ignored it is no longer recognizable. All these years of demoralization have brought New York to crisis. The NY racing industry is micro-chasm of the entire state. Former leading owner Paragallo is in jail for animal neglect. It has taken over 9 years and counting to install slots at Aqueduct. Albany has become completely ineffectual; it is a deadlock of competing special interests that can not find common ground. OTB's business model revolves around theft of funds coupled with non-payment of vendors. The once proud NYRA has been reduced to a pathetic beggar, needing loans to remain in daily operation. The only hope is one day slots will come and bail out the whole wretched mess. It is truly a false hope.

While New Jersey may also be on the verge of crisis, it is at least is fighting and the ground is fertile enough to sprout a new idea. Governor Christie has enacted a bold plan of action; a plan of action that has a good chance of usurping New York's former glory. New Jersey has a chance to crawl out from destabilization, reverse decades of demoralization and emerge as a functional jurisdiction. New Jersey is setting an example. While New Jersey rises, New York remains mired in demoralization, is doomed to crisis and then obliteration. Slots will never be savior and are only a interim solution leading to slots replacing racing entirely. Will others recognize what is happening and copy New Jerseys plan? Hopefully this Monmouth category-killer track revolutionizes the industry.

Belmont Early Thoughts

My early thoughts on the Belmont is that Icebox is not going to win. It looks like there is a virtual consensus that Ice Box will have to fall down to lose the Belmont. The Belmont could be a lucrative betting race with an odds-on chalk with only a small chance to win.

The foundation of my opinion is based on Ice Box's issues with lead changes. Horses that can not change leads usually can not go 12 furlongs. It looks like Ice Box was on the wrong lead in both the Florida and Kentucky derby. The Belmont is still three weeks away but it looks like someone with speed is going to have a huge edge with the favorite coming from off the pace. When the real running begins Icebox will be changing gears while the winner kicks away.

Ice Box makes up big ground on the wrong lead

Gimme A Light~Play Of The Day

Belmont Race 8

It has been over one year that I have waited for Pocket Cowboys to be entered on the turf. This silly old game requires the patience of a prisoner doing 20 upstate. The first time I spotted Pocket Cowboys this gelding was a two year old, from the looks of him I thought he would make a fine turf runner. He is a big boy with an imposing presence and big strides. it was these big strides that has helped him win the 2009 New York Derby. Today he takes a drop in class and stretches out to 10 furlongs on the turf. This is the kind of race he is built for. What has Scott Schwartz been waiting for? This is Pocket Cowboys' first turf race since 2008. He washed out badly in the 01APR race; if he is composed today I suggest a power bet on Pocket Cowboys to win today's 10 furlong race on the Belmont inner turf. He could be 10-1 or more.



stats
6 1-0-1
strike rate 17%
cumulative return $39.80
$2 ROI $6.60
average winner $39.80

Awesome Derby Pick ~Play Of The Day

So much hyperbole surrounds the Kentucky Derby. For an anachronism of a sport that gets almost no attention, this one race garners more attention than every other race combined. This race will be over-thought by men, women, children and computers. Here are my thoughts on the race.

My pick is Awesome Act. This is a horse who has an impressive late kick and his breeding, his training and running style should be well suited to today's race. My existential handicapping tells me that this is a horse that can overcome adversity; the Derby is all about triumph over adversity.

When Awesome Act first arrived in New York his journey was an odyssey. A massive blizzard delayed his arrived for 3 days and instead of a swift journey her was grounded at a British airport for the days. While he did not have to sleep on a cot like the travelers recently grounded by the Iceland ash emergency he certainly faced situational adversity. He was then stuck in American quarantine and not able to work preceding the Gotham. On top of his travel inconveniences the Gotham was a race where Awesome Act was first time dirt. Horses that are first time dirt emerging from travel hardships are usually big failures, think Aidan O'Brien imports on B.C. day. Those O'Brien horse likely fly privately. Not only did Awesome Act win, he won in smashing style. His win was a bold statement for those paying attention. When the adversity a twenty horse field being spooked by a rabid 150K crowd materializes other horses will likely use their mind, Awesome Act should be as cool as a glacier.

The other edge that Awesome Act holds is that he should love the distance. He has a bottom of English style distance training that is completely unique to the field. This bottom of stamina will be very handy running ten furlongs for the first time. With twenty horses in the race the pace figures to be taxing for the front runners. A perfect set up for a late running closer with a strong base of stamina is likely. This race should set up perfectly for Awesome Act. The explosive turn of foot he displayed in the Gotham could be the trump card in the Derby. Could he delight us like Awesome Mich? We hope so. Awesome Act is the play of the day.

Kentucky Derby Win #16 Awesome Act

Stats

stats
5 1-0-1
strike rate 20%
cumulative return $39.80
$2 ROI $7.96
average winner $39.80

Ruff Play Of The Day

Aqueduct Race 8

It has been a relative long time since the last play of the day. This due to two reasons, first there were lenten vows that restricted my play, second is that I have found it hard to engage in a product that I find disappointing.

Today I see Ruffino returning from a layoff. This is a horse that always seems to run well fresh. He has run fresh 5 times and won 4 of those races. It seems that his trainer Bond knows this and sent this charge down to Florida this year. Florida horses are always deadly at Aqueduct at this time of the year. He should be ready to roll over a field of modest New York breds that have taken turns beating each other all winter. According to the morning line Ruffino is projected to be the second choice; if that is the case he is excellent value as he is clearly the most likely winner on the card. All of my eggs will be in his basket today.

Win #4 Ruffino

stats
4 1-0-1
strike rate 25%
cumulative return $39.80
$2 ROI $9.95
average winner $39.80

Struggling to Remain Engaged

Perhaps it is just my point of view but it seems that racing has crossed a new threshold into irrelevance. Once dedicated fans have decreased their involvement in the sport. My wagering is down over 75% this year. While other sports are erecting new cathedrals of excellence Aqueduct has a dumpster as the local point of it's apron. It seems that all of the value in wagering and excitement of the competition has flown the coop. The programs are littered with short fields and state bred welfare races. A perfect storm of economic forces, changing tastes, poor leadership, fractured control and slots fueled indifference has led to a critical point where the whole industry's foundation has been weakened.


Racing seems like it can not get out of its own way. While I really want to embrace synthetic surfaces, I find them to be the equivalent of a monkey-wrench. Racing may need change but this was the wrong change. Synthetic surfaces add complexity to a game that is already too abstract for many tastes. With races like the Blue Grass and Lexington relegated to irrelevant farces it seems like whole race meets are contested in a parallel universe that have no relevance to this(dirt racing) dimension. The false consumer morality that led tracks like Keeneland to install synthetic surfaces has led them into a tactical error. The dirt surfaces should have been upgraded and properly maintained; the new surfaces are foreign and bewildering to the majority of handicappers and horsemen. This major change the fabric of the product has quickened the rush to the doors.


this dumpster is now the focal point of the Aqueduct facility

Here in New York the incessant corruption is most easily viewed as it pertains to the racing industry. It is a shame that the press now longer provides a check on the politicians and has let them get away with ruining Aqueduct for so long. With the media not reporting the facts the public is oblivious to the buffoonery associated with the Aqueduct VLT project. The only action taken here has been inaction. NYRA has waited for almost ten years to have slots installed while Albany continues to drag it feet. Worst yet is the process has relegated NYRA to a de facto ward of the state. Hanging onto the slots as its meal ticket, NYRA has been frozen into inaction awaiting the slots like a welfare mother awaiting the first on the month. Meanwhile the grifters in Albany are planning round five of the Aqueduct slots cash grab. Wasn't round four a enough of a laugh? Every time these politicians run this farce it slowly loses it's effectiveness to garner kickbacks and favor from those that desire the Aqueduct slots contract. There was a time when Las Vegas giant MGM was going to operate this casino. Then politicians stepped in, restarted the process four times and cashed in time after time with kick backs. Now it looks like this slots grab could garner very little interest in the gaming industry. Certainly the respected names in the gaming industry like Steve Wynn will have nothing to do with the farce of New York racing after four aborted slots approval processes. K&K wigs of White Plains may end up with a better casino than Aqueduct.

While round five of slots cash grab commences the parasite known as NYC OTB is threatening to close down. It looks like they want to book bets without paying the track operators. If OTB was to have closed down ten years ago this could have been a huge positive for the industry. Racing could have shaken the image of the degenerate that is the popular image of horseplayers. The OTB should be something of the past. With this degenerate image in the past racing could have moved towards respectability. Perhaps mainstream marketers like Patrick Patten could have crafted a new imagine for racing away the crass materialism of naked gambling to something more gentlemanly or mainstream. The fear now is with racing in such a horrible condition that the loss of the OTB revenue may be a death blow; it is like starting a surgery while the patient is struggling to fight off an infection. The other fear is that the OTB fans may not return to bet; many of the old degenerates that filled the parlors will simply retire. OTB is a subject that will require leadership; however it seems to be a area steeped in corruption with a lack of vision.

The only bright spot remains the upcoming Monmouth meet- perhaps even this could be a negative as it could be the nail in NYRA's coffin. With racing out of New York the entire industry may just lose it's national niche and become a provincial rural sport like rodeo. California racing is in trouble too. New York like California means big money and media presence. Without New York or Southern California racing is a much smaller industry. The looming triple crown is the one time where racing will hit the mainstream for a few weeks. This triple crown could be the calm eye of a storm. In a few years racing will likely have a much different look as the game is gutted.

Wood Memorial $500K Pick 4 Pool

NYRA is guaranteeing the Wood Memorial pick 4 pool this year to be $500K; NYRA does this to let the players know that they expect $500K in the pick 4 pool. It looks like they drew up this number long before they drew the card. Pool guarantees are a marketing technique that usually helps inform the public of a larger than normal multi-race pool is expected and draws more money to that pool. However this time it looks like NYRA is going to have to pay to make good on this promise. How does NYRA expect this sequence to attract $500K in action? Over the four races there are only 23 betting interests! This may be some sort of record for short fields in a New York pick 4 sequence. Can this be a foreshadowing of what to expect at the Belmont backwater meet once Monmouth opens?


This pick 4 sequence is no compromise for quality, the sequence is lacking in quality competition as well. Three of the four races will have an odds-on favorite and if they all win this pick 4 could pay $20. The Bay Shore could easily be a N1X allowance and features a Contessa entry of uber-hyped Eightyfiveinafifty and Casteneda that will likely be 1-2 on the board. Then we have the Excelsior; a race named after the New York State motto which means "ever upward". With the complete moral bankruptcy of the New York state leadership the name of this race and the state motto has become a bad joke. Maybe a change to corruptus in extremis would be something that would suit the state/race better and provide an alibi for this and all future cards run at NYRA.

The Wood is another six horse field. Maybe four of them have a square shot -I will try to beat Zayat's horse here- of winning this but for $750K you would think that more than six colts would line up in the gate. Munnings just absolutely lays over the Carter; a race with only five betting interests; Pletcher trains two in here.


With the lack of entries, a dearth of quality, a void of competition, little interest on the part of the public, all enhanced by the moral bankruptcy of local officials- it looks certain that NYRA will have to pony-up to make good on this $500K guarantee. If things are this bad at Aqueduct how are things going to look when Monmouth is running $75K maiden and allowance races?