My early thoughts on the Belmont is that Icebox is not going to win. It looks like there is a virtual consensus that Ice Box will have to fall down to lose the Belmont. The Belmont could be a lucrative betting race with an odds-on chalk with only a small chance to win.
The foundation of my opinion is based on Ice Box's issues with lead changes. Horses that can not change leads usually can not go 12 furlongs. It looks like Ice Box was on the wrong lead in both the Florida and Kentucky derby. The Belmont is still three weeks away but it looks like someone with speed is going to have a huge edge with the favorite coming from off the pace. When the real running begins Icebox will be changing gears while the winner kicks away.
Ice Box makes up big ground on the wrong lead
Power cap- existential handicapping
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5 comments:
Wow, you're right! You are the very first person that I have read/seen that does not give Ice Box a good chance to win.
For a horse that doesn't always change leads he sure can close like a bolt of lightning. Imagine when he learns to switch leads what he'll be able to do.
Right now Ice Box is my pick to win but First Dude looks pretty intriguing after his guttsy and thoroughly impressive Preakness second. His huge strides will be perfect for Belmont's large turns and long stretch run.
I hadn't visited your blog before but you write some great stuff!
Ice Box will be a heavy favorite in this race. As a G1 winner and KY Derby runner up, he will be bet and bet hard. I never noticed the lead change, but he reminds me of a horse named Aptitude who ran well in the Derby with his come from behind style, was bet down to nothing in the Belmont and couldn't catch the lone speed named Commendable who went wire to wire for one Mr. D Wayne Lukas at about 18-1. The pace scenario will be the key to watch.
If Ice Box's issue with lead changing is ever going to cost him a win, the Belmont Stakes will be the race. Getting to the wire first in a twelve furlong race is a product of efficient movement. While I will concede that Ice Box is a horse with plenty of courage, I feel that his issues will cost him the winners share in the Belmont.
As crazy as this sounds...look for Dublin to outrun his foed..."if" Lukas holds him back for the first 1 1/8 th miles. Classy Mirage would beat this group(his mom).
First Dude ran huge as the pace setter in the Preakness. The couple of times the Belmont was basically the mop up race of the triple crown (see: 2000 and 2006) it degenerated into a G1 n1x field.
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