Nice card at Belmont today. Hopefully the rain does not decimate the races and most importantly all horses and riders go back to their barns safely. This is the one day of the year when the racetrack crowd in downstate New York is not dominated by old degenerates. It is nice to see some people from outside the typical demographic enjoy the races.
McLaughlin's loaded gun
It looks like trainer McLaughlin can plan to make a more than one trip to the winners circle on this card. He has three likely winners; none of them are going to be great prices but they could be a safe heaven in a long program. In race one Marine Officer -dam was NY stakes winner Asti- should crush this field. She has class and a class turf horse like this usually has little problem winning off a layoff. In race four Rattlesnake Bridge has a rare five furlong work-McLaughlin usually works them 4 furlongs when they work 5 furlongs that signals readiness- this colt just towers over this field. Race 7 will be Trappe Shot's unveiling as top sprinter in the country. Like Rattlesnake Bridge this colt has a five furlong work signaling readiness.
Just A Game Stakes
This looks like a wide open race. No real standout here but Much Rejoicing is a filly that could win the"Just A Game" at a generous price. Race lacks pace which plays into Much Rejoicing's wheelhouse-this filly is used to pressing fast paces in sprints. Look at how this filly has done so much in such little time. Races on dirt, over pol track, over turf, then trips to Florida, New York, Canada. Then she completes her education with run over wet tracks, fast tracks and then turf. She has been liberally educated in the racing arts. She has shown that she has class and can run over broken bottles if needed. Today is the day she can apply that broad education towards a trip to the winners circle. Hopefully we can go for the ride alongside her.
Manhattan Stakes
Standout horse here in Prince Will I Am. Bet with him and you could feel like a king. The cutback from those marathon races in Florida should have this horse stout and strong in the homestretch. The Prince loves New York with a grade one win over this very track last year along with a win at the Spa. Race sets up nice for him. A cornerstone selection to build your castle around.
Belmont Stakes
Wide open race this year that looks interesting. Sometimes this race can be an afterthought. The early wagering has the public hammering down on Master of Hounds. The American raceing public has had this affection for Aiden O'Brien and the horses he ships from Ireland to run stateside. Unfortunately for the public Mr. O'Brien has not returned the favor with no wins in the last five years. Is this the horse to break the streak? Maybe it is better to let that long streak of futility to continue with someone else's money.
My longshot pet pick is Santiva. He is bred for this long trip and has run well in all of his dirt races. I like the preparation he has received taking five weeks off to prepare for this race from the derby. He is going to be my key horse that will be used with others in multi race wagers and trifectas.
Prime Cut is another horse here that will run well and surprise many with his talents of mobility.
Since Santiva is no lock with will also use Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, Prime Cut and money burner O'Brien's colt Master Of Hounds.
Power cap- existential handicapping
Showing posts with label Animal Kingdom. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Animal Kingdom. Show all posts
11 June 2011
22 May 2011
Take a shot
Animal Kingdom proved himself to be a legit dirt runner yesterday and will be a major threat going forward. Shackleford will have something to prove moving forward off of this race, he was up on a pace that was much faster and more contested than the Derby and have enough in the reserves to hold off a horse that blew by him two weeks prior. Three-year-old colts can make dramatic improvements from race to race in the spring, but to do these two things in one race is a little hard to believe.
One race left to go to the annual spring series and for a third straight year the crown is not on the line. A bust for bartenders at Belmont and ticket holders looking flip their tickets. There could still be lemonade made out of these lemons though. Animal Kingdom can be the first Derby-Belmont winner since Thunder Gulch if the connections see fit to enter him. Shackleford can prove that his Preakness win was not bias aided (being off the rail in the stretch was key) if he can last the grueling 12 furlongs of the Belmont Stakes. While it doesn’t have the sizzle or flash of a Triple Crown bid, it certainly makes for an interesting rematch with the likely possibility of Nehro running as well.
Street Sense and Super Saver both opted to pass the Belmont after defeats in the Preakness, with the bigger picture of making the Travers in mind. It worked out well for Street Sense, not so much for Super Saver. There is a reason for skepticism that Animal Kingdom would run in the last leg based on this, the same goes for Shackleford. Graham Motion is a conservative trainer who likes more time in between races as well, so another big race in three weeks with other big purse possibilities looming further down the road also gives one a moment of pause on the likelihood of the Derby winner making the Belmont.
Shackleford was all out to hold off the onslaught of closers in his last three efforts, 1 ½ miles gives the runners that excel in the last half of a race more time to make their moves. There is also the issue of this horse laying it all on the line like he did in his last three starts, how much is left in the tank for another big effort?
The Belmont Stakes could very well decide the Eclipse Award this year if both of the classic winners decide to show up. It would certainly behoove the connections of these colts to enter in the third leg as well. If Animal Kingdom goes and Shackleford stays in the stable and Animal Kingdom wins, it makes it harder for Shackleford to make up ground in the division with restricted graded stakes opportunities drying up. The same example could be used in reverse as well. No one in the division has more than one grade one win to their name up to this point, every grade one counts twice as much now as far as division bragging rights. Passing up a chance to take one down is akin to folding a good hand in poker, why not take a shot?
One race left to go to the annual spring series and for a third straight year the crown is not on the line. A bust for bartenders at Belmont and ticket holders looking flip their tickets. There could still be lemonade made out of these lemons though. Animal Kingdom can be the first Derby-Belmont winner since Thunder Gulch if the connections see fit to enter him. Shackleford can prove that his Preakness win was not bias aided (being off the rail in the stretch was key) if he can last the grueling 12 furlongs of the Belmont Stakes. While it doesn’t have the sizzle or flash of a Triple Crown bid, it certainly makes for an interesting rematch with the likely possibility of Nehro running as well.
Street Sense and Super Saver both opted to pass the Belmont after defeats in the Preakness, with the bigger picture of making the Travers in mind. It worked out well for Street Sense, not so much for Super Saver. There is a reason for skepticism that Animal Kingdom would run in the last leg based on this, the same goes for Shackleford. Graham Motion is a conservative trainer who likes more time in between races as well, so another big race in three weeks with other big purse possibilities looming further down the road also gives one a moment of pause on the likelihood of the Derby winner making the Belmont.
Shackleford was all out to hold off the onslaught of closers in his last three efforts, 1 ½ miles gives the runners that excel in the last half of a race more time to make their moves. There is also the issue of this horse laying it all on the line like he did in his last three starts, how much is left in the tank for another big effort?
The Belmont Stakes could very well decide the Eclipse Award this year if both of the classic winners decide to show up. It would certainly behoove the connections of these colts to enter in the third leg as well. If Animal Kingdom goes and Shackleford stays in the stable and Animal Kingdom wins, it makes it harder for Shackleford to make up ground in the division with restricted graded stakes opportunities drying up. The same example could be used in reverse as well. No one in the division has more than one grade one win to their name up to this point, every grade one counts twice as much now as far as division bragging rights. Passing up a chance to take one down is akin to folding a good hand in poker, why not take a shot?
14 May 2011
A Crucial Turning Point
The Preakness is now a week away; the Derby is considered the biggest event of the year, but the most important race of the year historically speaking is the Preakness. It has decided more year end honors than any other race has done in recent memory. Not to mention the obvious that it is the middle leg of the Triple Crown and is a single elimination playoff race for the Derby winner. There have been some dramatic finishes in recently as well. Recent memory speaks for itself on this one.
2010, Lookin at Lucky
After rough trips at Churchill and Santa Anita, he acquitted himself nicely with a jockey switch from Garret Gomez to Martin Garcia. Lookin at Lucky went on the clinch the divisional championship with a win in the Haskell. The Derby winner Super Saver was not the same after this race with the first of three off the board finishes. First Dude finished a resilient second after setting the pace, foreshadowing what the rest of the year held for this horse.
2009, Rachel Alexandra
Mine That Bird did not scare off many in this race and one of the chief opponents was a filly that just won by 20 lengths in the Kentucky Oaks. Breaking from post 13, Rachel Alexandra was wide most of the way while near the lead and still had enough left to hold off the surge of Mine That Bird. She went on to beat the male competition twice after this race en route to Horse of the Year and Champion three year old filly honors.
2008, Big Brown
After a dominant win in the Derby, he won with ease in the Preakness. If it weren’t for a quarter crack injury before the Belmont, this one would be referred to as a Triple Crown winner. He won two races at Monmouth Park and was named three-year-old champion.
2007, Curlin
The juvenile champion Street Sense and Curlin battled down to the wire in a photo finish that was about a fingernail difference between Street Sense going for a Triple Crown and taking an extended rest for the Travers and the Breeders’ Cup. Curlin was involved in two other thrilling stretch runs, the Belmont against Rags to Riches and the Jockey Club Gold Cup against Lawyer Ron. Both of those opponents went on to be named three-year-old filly champion and older male champion respectively. Curlin went on to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeder’s Cup Classic, which was the first of two Horse of the Year campaigns.
Animal Kingdom and Dialed In are the two horses that will immediately get a boost to the top of the class based on past successes. If one of the fresh horses or a Derby also ran wins it, a new challenger for the year-end championships has arrived. It will certainly be an interesting week.
2010, Lookin at Lucky
After rough trips at Churchill and Santa Anita, he acquitted himself nicely with a jockey switch from Garret Gomez to Martin Garcia. Lookin at Lucky went on the clinch the divisional championship with a win in the Haskell. The Derby winner Super Saver was not the same after this race with the first of three off the board finishes. First Dude finished a resilient second after setting the pace, foreshadowing what the rest of the year held for this horse.
2009, Rachel Alexandra
Mine That Bird did not scare off many in this race and one of the chief opponents was a filly that just won by 20 lengths in the Kentucky Oaks. Breaking from post 13, Rachel Alexandra was wide most of the way while near the lead and still had enough left to hold off the surge of Mine That Bird. She went on to beat the male competition twice after this race en route to Horse of the Year and Champion three year old filly honors.
2008, Big Brown
After a dominant win in the Derby, he won with ease in the Preakness. If it weren’t for a quarter crack injury before the Belmont, this one would be referred to as a Triple Crown winner. He won two races at Monmouth Park and was named three-year-old champion.
2007, Curlin
The juvenile champion Street Sense and Curlin battled down to the wire in a photo finish that was about a fingernail difference between Street Sense going for a Triple Crown and taking an extended rest for the Travers and the Breeders’ Cup. Curlin was involved in two other thrilling stretch runs, the Belmont against Rags to Riches and the Jockey Club Gold Cup against Lawyer Ron. Both of those opponents went on to be named three-year-old filly champion and older male champion respectively. Curlin went on to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeder’s Cup Classic, which was the first of two Horse of the Year campaigns.
Animal Kingdom and Dialed In are the two horses that will immediately get a boost to the top of the class based on past successes. If one of the fresh horses or a Derby also ran wins it, a new challenger for the year-end championships has arrived. It will certainly be an interesting week.
13 May 2011
Money Money Money
The Preakness is fast approaching after the long build towards the Kentucky Derby; the connections of Dialed In will be going for a $5.5 million payday being offered for winning the Holly Bull, Florida Derby and the Preakness. If Animal Kingdom wins this race and the Belmont to become the 12th Triple Crown winner, the owner is in line for $2.4 million in total purses without any bonus.
If Dialed in does win this race it is more than likely than not that Zito will chose to skip the Belmont with this one. He has stated that this horse thrives on a light schedule, a mile and a half race three weeks out from the Preakness is definitely not in a light schedule. If there were no bonus being offered for the middle leg of the Triple Crown, it is very likely that Dialed In would be training for the Belmont.
Only one horse has a chance at the Triple Crown, Animal Kingdom. His explosive run in the Derby made this possible. Up until 2004 there was a bonus offered by Visa for any horse that could sweep the series and in addition to that they held a less known, but lucrative bonus for the points leader of the three-year-old division up until August of the racing season. Before Visa, Chrysler had a Triple Crown series bonus based on points with a million-dollar bonus for the leader in points for those who raced in all three races. No one is sponsoring the hallowed racing series this year, leaving a $2.9 million dollar gap in purse incentives between the three big races and the Magna purse sweetener.
The old saying “Money makes the horse go” can certainly be used here; Dialed In ran an even, but distant ninth in the run for the roses. The Preakness would not be on the radar of the connections of Dialed In if it weren’t for the money being offered. Ice Box ran a visually impressive second last year in the Derby for the same trainer and same owner as Dialed In, they opted to try the Belmont instead of wheeling back in two weeks for the big race in Baltimore. This only goes to show that if there is an added incentive to run that trainers and owners will find their way to the secretary’s office a lot faster than usual. Back in the early nineties there was a series of races that offered bonuses for the handicap division called the American Championship Racing Series. Those races featured full fields with top horses facing off.
If anything the slot machine parlors and card rooms probably won’t be the savoir of racing, but they do offer a new revenue stream. That revenue stream at its best can serve as a way to get horses out of the stables and back on to the racetrack. With NYRA eventually getting this new source of income, one could be hopeful that this could lead to juiced up purses with bonuses that have the possibility of attracting large fields for one of the beacons of racing in the United States.
If Dialed in does win this race it is more than likely than not that Zito will chose to skip the Belmont with this one. He has stated that this horse thrives on a light schedule, a mile and a half race three weeks out from the Preakness is definitely not in a light schedule. If there were no bonus being offered for the middle leg of the Triple Crown, it is very likely that Dialed In would be training for the Belmont.
Only one horse has a chance at the Triple Crown, Animal Kingdom. His explosive run in the Derby made this possible. Up until 2004 there was a bonus offered by Visa for any horse that could sweep the series and in addition to that they held a less known, but lucrative bonus for the points leader of the three-year-old division up until August of the racing season. Before Visa, Chrysler had a Triple Crown series bonus based on points with a million-dollar bonus for the leader in points for those who raced in all three races. No one is sponsoring the hallowed racing series this year, leaving a $2.9 million dollar gap in purse incentives between the three big races and the Magna purse sweetener.
The old saying “Money makes the horse go” can certainly be used here; Dialed In ran an even, but distant ninth in the run for the roses. The Preakness would not be on the radar of the connections of Dialed In if it weren’t for the money being offered. Ice Box ran a visually impressive second last year in the Derby for the same trainer and same owner as Dialed In, they opted to try the Belmont instead of wheeling back in two weeks for the big race in Baltimore. This only goes to show that if there is an added incentive to run that trainers and owners will find their way to the secretary’s office a lot faster than usual. Back in the early nineties there was a series of races that offered bonuses for the handicap division called the American Championship Racing Series. Those races featured full fields with top horses facing off.
If anything the slot machine parlors and card rooms probably won’t be the savoir of racing, but they do offer a new revenue stream. That revenue stream at its best can serve as a way to get horses out of the stables and back on to the racetrack. With NYRA eventually getting this new source of income, one could be hopeful that this could lead to juiced up purses with bonuses that have the possibility of attracting large fields for one of the beacons of racing in the United States.
08 May 2011
No Big Shoes to Fill Here
The past ten years have not been kind to the winners of the Kentucky Derby. The last great horse to win this race was Silver Charm with seven graded stakes victories following his triple crown season and his greatest racing accomplishment being a victory in the $4 million Dubai World Cup.
2001, Monarchos
Only three starts after the Derby (two of which were in the triple crown) and was defeated by a combined 29 ¼ lengths in those starts.
2002, War Emblem
One for three after the triple crown bid, his lone win coming against three year olds in the Haskell. His two losses against older competition in the Pacific Classic and the Breeders’ Cup Classic
2003, Funny Cide
Probably the most accomplished of the bunch. He won the 2004 Jockey Club Gold Cup and a few other races in his seasons following the Derby win and Triple Crown bid.
2004, Smarty Jones
Raced twice after the Derby and had his Triple Crown attempt was thwarted in the final yards of the 2004 Belmont Stakes. Was retired before the Breeders’ Cup with soundness issues.
2005, Giacomo
Following two distant finishes in the Preakness and Belmont; Giacomo went one for six with a win at four years old in the San Diego Handicap.
2006, Barbaro
Was catastrophically injured during the running of the Preakness Stakes. He showed great potential before the injury and is in the same league with Ruffian in the “what might have been” category.
2007, Street Sense
Won the Jim Dandy and Travers after his narrow defeat to the great Curlin in the Preakness. Managed to get four starts in before going to stud at three with 2-1-0 record out of four starts. He ended his career with two losses though, a second to Hard Spun in the now defunct Kentucky Cup Classic and a distant fourth to Curlin in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
2008, Big Brown
After a record setting loss by any horse attempting the Triple Crown, he went on to win two races at Monmouth (one of them being the Haskell) and was retired after a recurring hoof injury reared its ugly head.
2009, Mine That Bird
Managed to do better in the Triple Crown series than his upset counterpart from 2005 with a second in the Preakness and a third in the Belmont with a combined margin of defeat of four lengths. Was winless for the rest of his career and retired at the end of 2010
2010, Super Saver
Tried hard to match Monarchos’ record for Derby futility in a record amount of time with three losses following his moment of glory at Churchill. Super Saver far back at Baltimore, blown away by Lookin at Lucky again in the Haskell, and was tenth in the Travers. If you ever needed a shining example of a flash in the pan, this is it.
Graham Motion trains this year’s Derby victor and he can stretch out a horse’s peak form for quite a while. Just from a first impression it looks like Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man are probably the two most likely horses who can parlay their Derby performances into Preakness triumphs. Not a lot else looked impressive out of the other 17 runners that crossed the finish line. Shackleford may be at his best going a mile to 1 1/8 miles as he hit the wall inside the 1/8 pole. Shackleford will likely take a lot of monetary support if he goes in the second leg. Otherwise, it probably will be prudent to look at the fresh challengers as legitimate threats to take down the Preakness.
2001, Monarchos
Only three starts after the Derby (two of which were in the triple crown) and was defeated by a combined 29 ¼ lengths in those starts.
2002, War Emblem
One for three after the triple crown bid, his lone win coming against three year olds in the Haskell. His two losses against older competition in the Pacific Classic and the Breeders’ Cup Classic
2003, Funny Cide
Probably the most accomplished of the bunch. He won the 2004 Jockey Club Gold Cup and a few other races in his seasons following the Derby win and Triple Crown bid.
2004, Smarty Jones
Raced twice after the Derby and had his Triple Crown attempt was thwarted in the final yards of the 2004 Belmont Stakes. Was retired before the Breeders’ Cup with soundness issues.
2005, Giacomo
Following two distant finishes in the Preakness and Belmont; Giacomo went one for six with a win at four years old in the San Diego Handicap.
2006, Barbaro
Was catastrophically injured during the running of the Preakness Stakes. He showed great potential before the injury and is in the same league with Ruffian in the “what might have been” category.
2007, Street Sense
Won the Jim Dandy and Travers after his narrow defeat to the great Curlin in the Preakness. Managed to get four starts in before going to stud at three with 2-1-0 record out of four starts. He ended his career with two losses though, a second to Hard Spun in the now defunct Kentucky Cup Classic and a distant fourth to Curlin in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
2008, Big Brown
After a record setting loss by any horse attempting the Triple Crown, he went on to win two races at Monmouth (one of them being the Haskell) and was retired after a recurring hoof injury reared its ugly head.
2009, Mine That Bird
Managed to do better in the Triple Crown series than his upset counterpart from 2005 with a second in the Preakness and a third in the Belmont with a combined margin of defeat of four lengths. Was winless for the rest of his career and retired at the end of 2010
2010, Super Saver
Tried hard to match Monarchos’ record for Derby futility in a record amount of time with three losses following his moment of glory at Churchill. Super Saver far back at Baltimore, blown away by Lookin at Lucky again in the Haskell, and was tenth in the Travers. If you ever needed a shining example of a flash in the pan, this is it.
Graham Motion trains this year’s Derby victor and he can stretch out a horse’s peak form for quite a while. Just from a first impression it looks like Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man are probably the two most likely horses who can parlay their Derby performances into Preakness triumphs. Not a lot else looked impressive out of the other 17 runners that crossed the finish line. Shackleford may be at his best going a mile to 1 1/8 miles as he hit the wall inside the 1/8 pole. Shackleford will likely take a lot of monetary support if he goes in the second leg. Otherwise, it probably will be prudent to look at the fresh challengers as legitimate threats to take down the Preakness.
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