Going To The Beach Play Of The Day

The focus shifts out west to Keeneland and Santa Anita this week. Both tracks have great cards for Saturday while New York racing devolves into something only the most hardened of degenerates could withstand. In the Shadwell Mile Justenuffhumor looks like the best miler on this side of the Atlantic and be anxoius to see him win his first GI. However the real sultry action is at Santa Anita this weekend.

In the Del Mar Mile we have the first and second choice both front end runners. The favorite is Cowboy Cal. His gambit is running on the front end. The second choice also likes to run on the front end; that horse Monterey Jazz is a "need the lead" type of runner. With two of the most powerful horses dueling on the front end perhaps someone from the back of the back could take advantage a favorable pace scenario. A logical winner is Whatsthescript with Allicansayiswow providing longshot appeal. I like the sequence of races here and will start a pick three covering Skyrush, Global Hunter, Monterey Jazz, Allicansayiswow, Cowboy Cal and Whatsthescript.


Mine That Bird looked absolutely over the top in a very disappointing West Virgina derby run. He looks like he has no shot whatsoever in the Goodwood Stakes GI. The DRF even picked him to win which should be good for some sucker money in the wagering. Since the derby winner will be one of the favorites the Goodwood becomes a tremendous wagering opportunity. The logical one looks like Colonel John but I will spread a few deep in pick 3s covering Parading, Gitano Hernando, Richard's Kid, Monzante along with the Colonel. With Mine That Bird sure to be off the board this is a good race to play exactas and trifectas.

The last leg of the pick 3 is the Lady's Secret GI. This race will anchor my pick 3 play. While Zenatta has assembled an undefeated record this year her campaign has been a bit like the Harlem Globetrotters. Every time she races she gets to beat up on the same old Washington Generals. This time the Boston Celtics are coming to town and my money will be on the Celtics er. Cocoa Beach. Cocoa Beach is the first real challenge Zenyatta has had to face all year and I am going to gamble that she is not up to it. The single is Cocoa Beach. The reward in the pick 3 should be generous.

Santa Anita Race 6 Power 3 - 2,4,7,9,10 / 3,4,6,7,8 / 1

Santa Anita Race 8 Win #1 Cocoa Beach

Stats
47 16-7-4
strike rate 34%
cumulative return 117.50
$2 ROI $2.47

West Virgina Derby; Play Of The Day

"You will never be a winner at poker until you can lay down a winning hand"~Poker Axiom

All week I have been chomping at the bit to play Big Drama in the West Virginia Derby. We had the lone speed, the tremendous weight break and the short field all playing to his advantage. Then we had that fact that the field is filled with no-hope race fillers and the tactically disadvantaged Mine That Bird who figures to be 3-5 or less in here. At the height of the Bag Drama fever I even considered tapping into a savings account to increase the investment on Big Drama. It all seemed too good to be true for Big Drama who should be somewhere between 8-5 and 2-1 but would be 1-2 on my personal oddsline.


Then a stranger weighed in poured cold water on my Big Drama crush. The very generous Amateur Capper has shed some light on Big Drama's form cycle. You have to love it when a capper has the stones to weigh in on these races before they spring latch and Amateur Capper provides a compelling argument. A.C. provides solid reasons why Big Drama may have some health/form issues. He has given me reason to pause. As far as capping goes this is as good as it gets.

However after thinking it over I am going to forge ahead with playing Big Drama in the West Virgina Derby. The bet will be spread across the pick3, late daily double and win pool. His four workouts in the last few weeks smooth over any lingering issues that A.C. has touched on. This is either going to be a case of my first instinct being correct or an example of a player not being able to pass on what looks like winning hand despite hints of looming disaster.

West Virgina Derby Win #4 Big Drama

Stats
32 13-4-1
strike rate 41%
cumulative return 99.30
$2 ROI $3.10

Derby Winner Up Against It Down In West Virginia

Looks like the West Virgina Derby is going to be a tough spot for Mine That Bird. This short field with little pace should have Big Drama loose on the lead and alone at the wire the first and second time. Hard to imagine Mine That Bird scoring in this type of situation. Big Drama returns from a big win and sports 4 nice workouts while receiving 11 lbs from Mine That Bird. Big drama's lone speed set-up is a huge tactical advantage. Mine That Bird will earn further respect if he can muster the rally to run down the drama colt.

Preakness Validation For All

The Preakness has initiated a form turn around for the game of horse racing. All of the key players in the race were validated. Jess Jackson who reportedly paid up to $10 million for Rachel Alexandra validated big money, big ego, last minute purchasers. Rachel Alexandra who was doubted by many handicapping nitwits, was validated as the best three year old in the country, she was sensational. The supposedly fluky derby winner, given less respect than Rodney Dangerfield, unleashed a power run, validating his derby win and proving himself a very nice 3 year old classic winner. Even Tom Durkin with his much maligned derby call delivered a scintillating account of the Preakness validating his position at the top of the American racecaller hierarchy.

Jess Jackson took a huge risk on Rachel Alexandra and it is good for racing that he was rewarded, rather than made a fool. Jackson's success may encourage others with the need for ego validation to get involved in the racing game. Can you imagine Donald Trump droning in the winners circle, "she is the best filly in all of of America, she is like Trump National Golf Club the best golf course in all of Westchester Country New York." While some may resent someone like Jackson throwing around money to position himself at the top, those people are missing a crucial point. It is vital that there is still men like Jackson to invest in the game at the top level. If there were a few more like him the game would resume it's rightful position at the top of the sport hierarchy. Headlines would be generated, buzz would be induced and irresistible competitive races would be made.

Rachel Alexandra was brilliant in the race. The piddly concerns of handicappers concerning her class were unfounded. She handled the class hike, the larger field, the increased pressure and the crowd. She single handedly dominated the race and was clearly a force on the front end. She dominated the results like an alpha-female in charge of a band of rouge bachelors. The closer the race is examined the more impressive her race appears. She cooked every horse within reach of her. Big Drama was defeated before they hit the top of the lane. Friesan Fire was third early and wound up well beaten. Pioneerof was close up early in forth but suffered the worst defeat of his race career and finished11th. Take The Points was another that was close up and finished last. Papa Clem sat right off the pace in the pocket on the rail and was soundly defeated finishing 8 lengths behind her. The horses that rated in 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th all ran new beyer number tops. The pace was hot and Rachel controlled all those boys.

Mine That Bird was another who was validated in this race. His win was dismissed as a pure fluke. Many doubted his ability to handle a dry, fast track and the transition to Pimlico. He handled everything quite well and proved his detractors wrong. The son of Birdstone unleashed a power run going into the turn and blew past every horse except the winner. It could be argued that with a better trip he might have won. His derby win was for real, while his Preakness was a loss it still provided sweet vindication for him. Mine That Bird is now respected. He is a very nice horse and has a stout finish to be reckoned with

You want to talk about form reversals , Tom Durkin had a huge form reversal in the Preakness. After Durkin's most disappointing big race call in the derby he delivered a memorable call for the ages in the Preakness. The local caller Rodman at Pimlico is a fine racecaller but listen to both calls of the same race and it is clear who the better caller is. Durkin picked up Mine That Birds power run as it commenced on the far turn, Rodman did not pick the move until The Bird was in the clear past the 1/8th pole. Having Durkin call the races is a wonderful enhancement to the game and his performance validated why he is treasured by so many race fans.

The Preakness was a great race for racing. Many positive stories have emerged from the race along with a sense of excitement. The uninformed articles from the clueless brigade have ceased and articles highlighting racing's authentic, grass roots appeal have emerged by the lot. TV ratings surged and wagering was up an impressive 30% over last years Preakness. Pimlico has eliminated the BYOB policy in the infield which replaced beer guzzling nitwits with real racing fans, accounting for the tremendous spike in wagering. Good riddance to the human filth pit that was the Preakness infield. Not only did the Preakness validate those involved with the game the Preakness validated the game itself.

Preakness Making For Great Drama

You know the old saying "Any press is good press", and with all the shenanigans this week racing has garnered a swarm of attention. Comments on ESPN racing articles have surged from and average of 0.5 to 36. The surge in attention is great news. Is the filly in? Are they going to keep her out? Who is colluding in the sinister plot to keep her out? Is Jackson trying to buy a triple crown race? How classy is Whitney to step aside for the filly? Why did they move Rachel to a trainer with so many drug positives? The story lines are vibrant and they have engaged a racing community. The mass appeal of Beyer numbers is the same mass appeal as the Harvard Math Review, these new story lines have the sensational mass appeal of the national enquirer.


It is about time that racing joined the party. The sports world gave up on handicapping the games and polite speak long ago. Gambling is hard but feeling emotionally outraged is easy. The sports world used to be a more like a regular racing day. There was a competition and people discussed the merits of the competitors, the games were played, bets were made and people marveled at the skills of the players. Now the sports world is more like "Day Of Our Lives". There are villains and people you love to hate and there are sensational bits of interpersonal gossip to ponder. Sports have become the daytime drama that women have loved for years but men never had. Racing has not participated much in the soap opera and it has hurt the races in the mass appeal market. The lead-up to the Preakness has changed all that. The game has plunged itself into the mud soaked sports soap opera scrum. The sensationalist maiden is broken. The Preakness is the N1X allowance for sensationalists and those basking in the national limelight. Racing is poised to capture some much needed mass appeal on the backs of a few flamboyant characters. Racing needs these characters who relish the spotlight.

Turn on ESPN or the local sports talk AM radio and most of the content centers around who is on steroids, who got busted for steroids, what kind of steroids they took, who is in jail, who gets along with who and he said she said. This is more like an episode of Days Of Our Lives than a three hour ball game. The competition is secondary to the storyline. For a longtime racing had no storylines outside of the competition. While only a few can read the racing from, everyone can read a sensational tabloid like the National Enquirer. Ballgames themselves are long, boring and dull but gossiping about people and taking a stand invokes emotional reactions. People like emotional reactions. Instead of focusing on the competition the sports soap opera drama has supplanted the game action itself as what the fans follow. The drama gives people the ability to take positions on popular issues. It creates a storyline and animates the lives of the fans. Instead of being a isolated sports fan following players who follow a ball the fans engage into a drama and feel like they are part of a vibrant social circle with heroes, friends and villains.


Look at how the Preakness drama has enlivened the horse racing community. There are dozens of blog posts that have stimulated scores of impassioned comments. The message boards are dominated by threads focusing on the Preakness lead-up. Almost everyone has an opinion and is able to take a posture either for or against Jess Jackson or whether they like Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. There are heroes, villains, drama and pending high jinks. A stand against Jess Jackson is a stand against greed. A stand against Zayat and Allen's plot to exclude Rachel Alexandra means you are for good sportsmanship. A stand for excluding Rachel Alexandra means you are a rugged iconoclast. Drama like this gives the fans an identity and engages them in a running debate with an exciting storyline.

This type of drama is usually absent from racing. Not only is it absent but racing usually shuns this type of drama, I thought racing was too classy for this type of nonsense. There was a time when I was uncomfortable with it but I have learned to embrace the soap opera drama for its immense potential to bring the masses into the racing fold. Like the NBA and NFL does this type of drama should be embraced. At first glance it may seem that this type of theater would turn off fans. Sure some may be turned off but the overwhelming majority of fans love this type of brouhaha and eat it up like a dog left home alone with a Porterhouse steak on the counter.

What happens on the backstretch stays on the backstretch. Racing has missed out on the billion dollar sports drama business. If racing wants to return to the main stream it needs more press, it needs more flamboyant characters like Ahmed Zayat saying more ostentatious things. People will posture for and against these issues but the key point is that if there is nothing to take a stand against, the masses will ignore racing. Most of the year the polite connections say the right things, the horses run in a circle, the bets are paid out and life goes on. This is not enough to capture the masses imagination. The play of the day is too hard to come up with and you look too foolish when it runs up the track. The public needs controversy for the sake of controversy. The public needs easy targets like Barry Bonds to take shots at. There needs to be heroes and villains. The NTRA should purchase Dutrow a years supply of Redbull to get him talking more. Jeff Mullins should issue press releases on a regular basis on how dumb the betting public is every time a 2-5 shot runs up the track. Stories should be concocted that a horse was excluded from a race even though they weren't even pointed to that race. If nobody does anything risque it makes for one boring soap opera. Bring it on limelight seekers and keep the soap opera rolling five days a week.

Peter Pan Report

Drove down to Belmont for the Peter Pan. It was a warm humid day and the track had significant moisture in the surface from the deluge of 9 days and nights of rain. There was a clear speed bias as almost all the winners either set the pace or were less than two lengths off the pace. The speed bias was strongest early in the card and slowly waned as the track dried out. My time at Belmont was split between the paddock and the third floor grandstand power perch with binoculars in tow. Here is what we gathered from the days races.

The winner of the 6th race Pocket Cowboys is a huge gelding. He set a fast pace and held gamely after being confronted, albeit with the bias. This is a horse that is built to run on the turf When he runs first time turf I will take a swing with him as he has the look for a horse that would relish that surface. If the race is on the inner turf it will be a bigger swing as a speedy horse that likes turf does very well on the inner turf at Belmont.

In race 7 a maiden special Ricoriatoa was fractious in the paddock and had to be walked back and forth to get the tack on as he would not stand still. This was my first look at Paulo Lobo and his crew since he moved his barn from SoCal to New York. The trainer and and his help seemed professional and well prepared as they did well with a fractious horse. Mr. Lobo will do well in New York. After Ricoriatoa's paddock act the bad behavior continued and the Mig dismounted before he was loaded due to more fractiousness. I used Ricoriatoa in my wagers but after his behavior I expected him to fade quite early in the race. After a slow break Ricoriatoa rushed up to press the pace, had a spirited duel with the winner and held well in the lane. All things considered he ran well to claim the place share of the purse. While he may have some class we could also chalk up his run to the bias. The speedy winner Cabaret Cowboy looked great in the paddock, was bet hard off an October layoff and had the bias in his favor.

They pulled out all the stops on Imperial Council after his Wood paddock hysterics. He was in Belmont's troublesome horse paddock away from the other horses instead of the regular paddock with the rest of the field. Instead of walking alone Imperial Council had a female pony with him the entire time he was in the paddock and the pony stayed with him around the walking ring as well. Imperial Council held together this time and the assistant did a great job with saddling him and keeping him composed. He was not washed out, he did not rear up or display any fractious behavior like the Wood Memorial. The biggest incident in the paddock was caused by Al Khali. When Al Khali got wind of Imperial Council's pony and he let out and loud whinny and suddenly became aroused as he paraded around the paddock. It was very embarrassing for all the ladies in the paddock area. After some time sequestered in his stall this impassioned competitor returned to his flaccid state and was calm in the parade.

The Peter Pan parade was uneventful. All horses looked composed and well. No real behavior excuses except for the rise in the paddock from Al Khali. The significant speed bias and the addition of blinkers on Hello Broadway may have gave Hello Broadway the green light to attempt a "Sinister Minister". After setting a blazing pace Hello Broadway was spent at the 1/4 pole. The insane pace theft attempt did not work very well. Charitable Man looked good on paper second off the layoff and had a great trip sitting right off the insane fractions. Hello Broadway's insane pace played right into Charitable Man's hand.

Imperial Council rated four lengths off Charitable Man and had dead aim on him at the top of the lane. That is when Imperial Council's distance limitations kicked in and he lost ground from the 1/8th pole to the wire. Imperial Council is a nice horse but he will excel at shorter distances. Look for a cutback is distance for Imperial Council next race, he will be live in the Woody Stephens if he runs there. Seven furlongs is this colts wheelhouse.

Scorewithcater took some action out of the key race Sunland Derby but he was not up to the task here. Mine That Bird was not flattered by this performance as Scorewithcater was outrun at every call. The speed bias would not let a deep closer like him make up ground late. This was the type of track where you had to be close. Despite swinging wide to make a run Scorewithcater made no impression. To the Sunland derby's credit Mythical Power powered into a Lone Star derby win out of the Sunland Derby.

Out of this race Brave Victory ran well. He was one of the few horses to made up ground late on the whole day and looked well in the paddock. He could be a horse that moves forward in the future or take advantage of a complete pace collapse.

Charitable Man confirmed his class. He had a dream trip but this colt has speed and is able to carry it a distance of ground. While the poly race at Keeneland might have been a complete throw out, he did benefit from the run fitness-wise. Charitable Man could give a generous run in the Belmont Stakes and the three year old races at Saratoga.

Not Bred To Call Birdstone

Tom Durkin is feeling the heat for his derby call and rightfully so. Durkin has been brilliant for over two decades but this Derby performance was a departure from his sterling form. He was shown up by recent import Mark Johnson who had a smoother derby call for the Churchill simulcast and seemed composed and better prepared. The last time I remember Durkin blowing a call like this was when Mine That Bird's daddy won the 2004 Travers and Durkin called it the Belmont Stakes.

While Durkin made several errors during the derby the one everyone will remember is how he completely missed the winner until he was 6 clear and almost under the wire. It reminded everyone of 2006 BC Juvenile when Denmen completely Street Sense, only calling him when he was clear and had the race in-hand. The call was so bad that Denman went back to the studio and revised the call for future replays.

In comparison Mark Johnson didn't do a great job with Mine That Bird's big move but he did better than Durkin picking him up about the time he was shoulder to shoulder with the tiring Join In The Dance. A great caller should have picked the Bird up at the 3/8ths pole as he inhaled colt after colt like a four legged pac-man. Durkin's meticulous preparation alluded him in at Louisville on Saturday, this performance was a disappointment. The racing public has been spoiled by Durkin's superior presentation, his fastidious preparation and his flair for the dramatic, rising to the occasion time after time to match the performance of the equine competitors. For comparison check the multiple calls available on youtube for the of the 2005 derby or 2006 Preakness. Multiple calls for these races are available and Durkin's are clearly superior in smoothness, control and situational awareness. Durkin failed in all three regards on Saturday.

British newcomer Mark Johnson may have just unpacked his bags last week but he may be the number two caller in the country and pressing for number one. His presentation was excellent this weekend. Could Johnson's presence be the reason that Durkin was rattled? Johnson is as well prepared as anyone I have ever heard and provides a tremendous amount of supplemental information that enhances the racing presentation for the fans and handicappers. This guy combines talent with hard work which is a winning exacta. Mark Johnson cares and it radiates in his performance. Other racecallers should take notes. The recent import gave frequent mention of scratches, provided insightful commentary when horses were fractious in the post parade and his calls were original plus filled with color.

As bad as Durkin's derby call was, I feel his Oaks call the day before was classic Durkin and he outgamed Johnson on that call. Vividly illustrating brilliant performances has always been Durkin's forte and he did not disappoint on Friday, which assures us Durkin fans that Saturday's performance was an anomaly. While Johnson's call was quite good for the Kentucky Oaks it was not quite as vivid as Durkin's call as Johnson used cruising one too many times and seemed to stumble ever so slightly trying to locate the correct adjective to describe Rachel Alexandra's extraordinary tour de force .

Looking forward to the next stop on the Triple Crown I am betting on a better Durkin performance. The performance aberration in the derby must be bothering Durkin and he will be motivated to prepare for the Preakness action. We can compare Durkin to the resident Pimlico caller Rodman who is very good and sometimes excellent. Maybe Durkin's difficulty at this years derby traces back to the 2004 Belmont Stakes. That was a disappointing race for so many people. The disappointment was clearly inflected in Durkin's call when Mine That Bird's sire Bridstone overhauled the beloved Smarty Jones. These Birdstone racecalling flubs are becoming a pattern. Then there was the blunder of Durkin calling Birdstone the winner of the Belmont Stakes. How could Birdstone win the Belmont when it was August at Saratoga and the race was called the Travers. Mine That Bird may be bred to race in the mud but Durkin is not bred to call Birdstone and his get.

Forgotten But Lovable

Does any one else see the irony in the 137 million man hours wasted handicapping the derby? With all that work on the books you will be hard-pressed to find a capper or fan who touted the winner before the Derby. The only people who cashed tickets in this race are either members of the Audubon Society, were born on August 8th 1988 or have experience working in the mining industry. Even the trainer wasn't confident. "To be honest, I didn't have any real feeling that I could win the Derby," trainer Chip Woolley said.


As one of those that spent hours analyzing the race and watching replays it is another lesson in horse racing hard knocks being nowhere near this result. Rather than besmirch Mine That Bird as a fluke or belittle his modest connections I am embracing the pain of this loss. I dismissed the winner so fast that I never bothered to watch his race replays or inquire a bit closer. This is not good capping. However I think if I looked harder and longer I would have tossed faster and harder. Running forth in the ungraded Sunland Derby at 13-1 makes for an easy toss. There is surely a valuable lesson to be gleaned from this race.


With this unlikely horse winning the Kentucky derby there will be a small backlash building. Some of the on-line chatter is suggesting that Mine That Bird was really ringer. Instead of Mine That Bird in the gate it was really Curlin running under Mine That Bird's name. Then there is the predicable drug innuendo. You can count on Andy Beyer to write an anti-Mine That Bird article as Mine That Bird had the lowest Beyer figures coming into the race and Beyer always protects his figures when there is a result like this. Mine That Bird's connections are going to have to develop a thick skin as soon as the derby celebration is over. In addition to the Beyer figs Mine Bird also had the worst dosage figure at 5.4 in the race as well.



















Power Cap's Sister-In Law Was One Of The Few Who Scored
(Her Birthday is August 8th)


While the result was improbable on paper I have to give Calvin Borel a ton of credit. This jockey rode a brilliant race, a performance for the ages. For someone that has had so much success the last few years it a wonderful reflection on Borel's character that he is still such a likable and humble athlete. It gave me chills when he thanked his mama and papa in heaven after the race and how he wished they could see him now. I almost wanted to cry for him. This stunning victory was just the icing on the cake after Borel won the Kentucky Oaks race the day before on Rachel Alexandra who turned in one of the most brilliant performances in American racing this decade.



The story of the horse being driven from New Mexico in the back of a pick-up truck was endearing as well. There is so much appeal when David sticks it to Goliath and this David just finished off 18 Goliath's. The whole trainer angle might be the biggest surprise as this horse ran dead last in the BC Juvenile under the care of Dick Mandella. Mandella is considered one of the hardest trainers to move a horse up from. Now Chip Wolley who has won only one race all year, which was a sprint maiden race at Sunland has moved a horse from dead last to first in the biggest race of the year. This is like a the fry guy from your local Burger King taking on and destroying Bobby Flay in one of those Iron Chef throw downs. Before that maiden race Chip Wolley won a 5K claimer in December. Mine That Bird looked like he was over his head today but he ran a tremendous race and put one over on everyone. If he can pull off the Preakness shocker the good news is that Mine That Bird's daddy won the Belmont a few years ago. I will be rooting for them to go all the way. It will make for a fun Belmont hoping for the impossible.