Get to know a BC prospect: The Southern California Roundup

Admittedly this site does not cover a lot of the news or horses that run on the opposite coast. It must be the three-hour time difference, general malaise towards the product offered at the three principal tracks, the two synthetic surfaces that are in place, the high takeout rates, or some combination of the four. Whatever the case may be, they do produce some decent runners for the big day much like the other major circuits do. A scouting report on the some of the big players coming to Louisville is in order.

Game On Dude

He is listed at 15/1 in the recent Breeders’ Cup write up for the Daily Racing Form. Seems a bit high even for a rough sketch on the contenders they list. Awesome Gem is the longest shot listed immediately after the Dude at 20/1. This one has been the hard trying type all year long and seems to favor dirt surfaces with two major wins over the Santa Anita surface. His early speed always puts him in contention and he could hang around for the finish if unattended and treated as cheap speed.

The Factor

It’s been an up and down year for this highly touted Baffert runner, after winning two straight grade two races he was defeated in the Arkansas Derby and laid up until the Pat O’Brien stakes where he defeated Smiling Tiger with weight concessions. The Ancient Title was a flat effort where he finished off the board causing high rolling show bettors to look for tall buildings and bridges. He is a Jekyll and Hyde horse if there ever was one, which one will show up on the first Saturday of November is anyone’s guess. Buyers beware.

Dubawi Heights

If Stacelita is at the top of the older filly grass ranks for the U.S. then this one is not far behind. They were one-two in their only meeting on a neutral site at Arlington Park and those two went on to win their next starts in easy fashion. The 11 furlongs of the distaff turf race will be a question mark for this one though as it will be her first trip going three turns and an eighth of a mile longer than she has ever gone in her career. Her rival Stacelita has already done the trip against colts in the United Nations back in July with a respectable third to show for it.

Kentucky Derby Failure Five, Round Two

The first edition of the failure five saw two of the five horses mentioned drop off the pathway, Boys at Toscanova and Tapizar. Tapizar ran poorly in the Bob Lewis Stakes and an injury was found shortly after the race, Boys at Toscanova was not training well and was removed from consideration due to this. In light of this, it is time to update the list.

1. Uncle Mo

The Derby Futures morning line favorite among the entries listed and there is not much to report on this one. Gulfstream Park wrote a race up around the same time as the Tampa Bay Derby in hopes of luring this horse away from Tampa Bay Downs. I’m sure this glorified allowance race will not fill though.

2. To Honor and Serve

The three-year-old debut of this horse will be this Saturday in the Fountain of Youth Stakes; this race produced Eskendereya last year. In related news, Belmont Stakes ticket applications are being accepted now. The only reason this is relative is the fact that for a horse to win the Triple Crown he has to have experience over the Belmont oval, To Honor and Serve has that going for him and the connections go a long way as well. With that being said he will probably either miss the Derby completely or be a tough luck loser in the first leg and run the table in the last two legs. That seems to be the way things go in this sport.

3. Dialed In

There seems to be a recurring theme with this group of three-year-olds, it is that they don’t race much. The top two are still working out and this one will skip a showdown with To Honor and Serve to train up to the Florida Derby. It should be noted that this horse was the co-second choice on the morning line with To Honor and Serve in the futures pool with only two starts to his name. This horse is set up to fall short with this type of schedule, if everything goes according to plan he would make it to the Derby with only three starts and a running style that requires a perfect trip in order to win. Curlin was one of the better horses to compete in the last twenty or so years and he could not pull off a Derby victory with a light schedule leading up to the race, how could this horse be any different?

4. Mucho Macho Man

An old angle that has worked almost every winter and spring with the three-year-olds has been that if a trainer ships a horse out of their home base, the horse will be a force to be reckoned with. It struck again this weekend when Mucho Macho Man shipped to Fair Grounds and beat a wide-open field in the Risen Star. Chances are this horse will train in Florida and race again in the Louisiana Derby. Using Fair Grounds as a springboard to the Kentucky Derby has not been a successful route. The last horse to win the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby was Grindstone back in 1996.

5. The Factor

One California speedball gets knocked out of the frame only to get replaced by another. Baffert has not stated that he is aiming this one for the big dance, but seeing how it is a three-year-old trained by Baffert it is a safe bet he will take a shot at this with a race going two turns in the near future. Two races Baffert cited the Sunland Derby or the Rebel Stakes as possible next starts.