The turning point

This is the time of the year when championships are decided. On Saturday, there are key divisional races being held including the Alabama Stakes and the Arlington Million with its support cast of the Secretariat Stakes and the Beverly D Stakes.

Alabama Stakes

After months of slow buildup and races leading to this moment there will be a winner decided, too bad this line isn't being used for Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. The Alabama has two showcase names in the three year old fillies division squaring off, Devil May Care and Blind Luck. Blind Luck should have been voted best juvenile filly of 2009 based on her dominating win in the Hollywood Starlet and Oak Leaf win, but that is last year. So far she has done little wrong in 2010 with four graded stakes wins on both synthetic and dirt, her last win she was all out to defeat Havre de Grace on a sloppy Delaware strip with a final time that bested stakes colts that ran earlier by nearly two seconds. Outside of the Derby misadventure from Devil May Care she has scored easy wins in the Coaching Club American Oaks, Mother Goose, and Bonnie Miss.

The Tomlinson pedigree figure does show something revealing about the six fillies that are entered in the Alabama and that is their lack of stamina pedigree. None of them have a figure near 320, the highest is Devil May Care with 288 (no longshot angle there). For the contrarian bettors Havre de Grace could be of interest with four works (two of which are bullets) since her last start and the pace advantage of breaking from the outside in a small field.

Arlington Million Day

Gio Ponti returns from his narrow victory in the Man O' War on July 10 to face mostly American opposition in the Arlington Million. Only three of the ten entered are making the trip from Europe to run in this race and the American runners with the exception of Gio Ponti would have a tough time against international competition, which exposes the weaknesses of the turf racing in North America. Just to drive the point across, most years all a European invader has to do is win the Breeder's Cup Turf and they win the eclipse award for best turf horse.

The Secretariat has Paddy O'Prado as its main attraction and the Beverly D could very be confused with a Grade 3 race any other weekend. If they didn't have the Secretariat, we could have had a Million that had Paddy O'Prado and a few other of the turf standouts from the three year old division in the entries. The Secretariat has worked against the Million like this in the past, in 2006 Showing up dominated his three year old rivals in the Secretariat and with The Tin Man wiring the Million field that year you could have made a case that Showing Up would have won the Million if entered for that event. Kitten's Joy won the Secretariat in 2004 and ended up dominating the competition that primarily ran in the Million later on in the Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont that October.

The Odyssey of I Want Revenge

I Want Revenge maybe running underneath the radar this weekend with all of the high class racing taking place elsewhere. This is his second start since scratching out of the 2009 Derby is the Iselin Handicap and the competition isn't going to be any easier in this round, Redding Colliery is having a very good year and is coming off a convincing score in the Lone Star Park Handicap. Chances are I Want Revenge will probably go to the Jockey Club Gold Cup from this race due to the spacing of the races. It would be nice to see a win out of I Want Revenge in this race followed by starts in the Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Breeders Cup Classic, and the Cigar Mile. If a horse was to run the table with those races at the end of the year, it would be hard to deny them Horse of the Year, just throwing that out there.

The Monmouth prep for this race was the Salvatore Mile and ended up being a very slow edition of the race in contrast to recent runnings that had Lawyer Ron lose to Gotcha Gold who set a track record time in 2007 and Coal Play a fifth of a second away from that record in 2009. This year's edition had fractions of 25, 50, 1:14, and a final time of 1:38. That is a great time for a one mile and seventy yards race, but not so much for a one mile race. Duke of Mischief and Gone Astray are coming out of this race, I don't see either taking a lot of play in the Iselin Handicap

The next three weekends are loaded with important division altering races that will have an impact on this year's Breeders Cup and it will be interesting to see how things shape up in the next few weeks.

Category Killer Track~Play Of The Day

Monmouth Park Race 3

Monmouth has traditionally been know as a speed biased surface. East To West is a horse that has a few things going for him at a nice price(10-1). He has speed, is cutting back in distance and dropping in class. He is also the only horse in the field to run in the last month . The cutback from 1 3/16ths to one mile should give him the stamina to win a speed duel with Strait Count. Maybe he runs the rest of the layoff horses off their feet. East to West is a coast to coast candidate.

Win # 3 East To West

stats
7 2-0-1
strike rate 29%
cumulative return $51.6
$2 ROI $7.37
average winner $25.8

Monmouth Park Brings Belmont To Crisis

Take a look at the Monmouth entries for opening day. 5K claimers run for $30K, maiden specials run for $75K while the purse for N1X is $80K. All of the good barns are present; in fact there is a convergence of horsemen as barns from California, the mid Atlantic and New York converge. In a sport where the success of a venue is tied to its ability to latch onto the welfare dole i.e. slots, it is a refreshing to see clear thinking put to action. This mega-meet will surely attract attention; hopefully the horse fans will recognize excellence and reward it with their wagering dollar.

In comparison there is New York, with its political circus of useful idiots, politburo mediocrity and ubiquitous corruption, this is a jurisdiction that could never actualize a plan like "Category-Killer-Monmouth". In New York there is only a collection of individual needs and it is power that holds sway. The common good is not only ignored it is no longer recognizable. All these years of demoralization have brought New York to crisis. The NY racing industry is micro-chasm of the entire state. Former leading owner Paragallo is in jail for animal neglect. It has taken over 9 years and counting to install slots at Aqueduct. Albany has become completely ineffectual; it is a deadlock of competing special interests that can not find common ground. OTB's business model revolves around theft of funds coupled with non-payment of vendors. The once proud NYRA has been reduced to a pathetic beggar, needing loans to remain in daily operation. The only hope is one day slots will come and bail out the whole wretched mess. It is truly a false hope.

While New Jersey may also be on the verge of crisis, it is at least is fighting and the ground is fertile enough to sprout a new idea. Governor Christie has enacted a bold plan of action; a plan of action that has a good chance of usurping New York's former glory. New Jersey has a chance to crawl out from destabilization, reverse decades of demoralization and emerge as a functional jurisdiction. New Jersey is setting an example. While New Jersey rises, New York remains mired in demoralization, is doomed to crisis and then obliteration. Slots will never be savior and are only a interim solution leading to slots replacing racing entirely. Will others recognize what is happening and copy New Jerseys plan? Hopefully this Monmouth category-killer track revolutionizes the industry.

Wood Memorial $500K Pick 4 Pool

NYRA is guaranteeing the Wood Memorial pick 4 pool this year to be $500K; NYRA does this to let the players know that they expect $500K in the pick 4 pool. It looks like they drew up this number long before they drew the card. Pool guarantees are a marketing technique that usually helps inform the public of a larger than normal multi-race pool is expected and draws more money to that pool. However this time it looks like NYRA is going to have to pay to make good on this promise. How does NYRA expect this sequence to attract $500K in action? Over the four races there are only 23 betting interests! This may be some sort of record for short fields in a New York pick 4 sequence. Can this be a foreshadowing of what to expect at the Belmont backwater meet once Monmouth opens?


This pick 4 sequence is no compromise for quality, the sequence is lacking in quality competition as well. Three of the four races will have an odds-on favorite and if they all win this pick 4 could pay $20. The Bay Shore could easily be a N1X allowance and features a Contessa entry of uber-hyped Eightyfiveinafifty and Casteneda that will likely be 1-2 on the board. Then we have the Excelsior; a race named after the New York State motto which means "ever upward". With the complete moral bankruptcy of the New York state leadership the name of this race and the state motto has become a bad joke. Maybe a change to corruptus in extremis would be something that would suit the state/race better and provide an alibi for this and all future cards run at NYRA.

The Wood is another six horse field. Maybe four of them have a square shot -I will try to beat Zayat's horse here- of winning this but for $750K you would think that more than six colts would line up in the gate. Munnings just absolutely lays over the Carter; a race with only five betting interests; Pletcher trains two in here.


With the lack of entries, a dearth of quality, a void of competition, little interest on the part of the public, all enhanced by the moral bankruptcy of local officials- it looks certain that NYRA will have to pony-up to make good on this $500K guarantee. If things are this bad at Aqueduct how are things going to look when Monmouth is running $75K maiden and allowance races?

New Jersey Racing Highlight Of The Week

As the intense corruption endangers the exsistance of New York racing, I thought it would be a good time to highlight some of the greatest moments in New Jersey horse racing. As New Jersey takes over the role of premier racing venue in the Northeast, it should be known that New Jersey has a rich racing heritage. Especially a heritage of trying new things and blazing trails. In the highlight below Spend A Buck shows tremendous courage to hold off Crème fraiche. At the top of the lane Spend A Buck is a beaten horse; somehow he calls on all of his class and holds on. From Wikipedia:

Earlier in the season, Spend A Buck had won two races at the newly reopened Garden State Park Racetrack in Cherry Hill, NJ: the Cherry Hill Mile on April 6, and the Garden State Stakes on April 20. Before the season had begun, Garden State Park owner Robert Brennan had put up a $2 million bonus to the horse that could win the two April prep races,the Kentucky Derby, and the May 27 Jersey Derby, Garden State's signature race.

Spend A Buck owner Dennis Diaz opted to skip the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes, and thus trade Spend A Buck's chance to win the Triple Crown for a shot at the bonus. Cordero, Spend A Buck's regular jockey, was committed to another race that day, so Hall of Fame jockey Laffit Pincay Jr. was to ride Spend A Buck at Garden State. Spend A Buck won the Jersey Derby by a neck over eventual Belmont winner Creme Fraiche, capturing a $2.6 million prize, the largest single purse in American racing history. That record stood for 19 years, until Smarty Jones won the 2004 Kentucky Derby and a bonus inspired by Brennan's.

Due to Spend A Buck skipping the last two legs of the Triple Crown, the Triple Crown races immediately put up a bonus of their own, to prevent that from ever happening again.

It was New Jersey innovation that forced the triple crown to match New Jersey racing with a triple crown bonus. Perhaps it will be New Jersey innovation in 2010 with its "category killer" Monmouth meet that will raise the bar and set the standard for other tracks to follow.

Belmont Stakes Run At Monmouth?

When New Jersey elected governor Christie last year it seemed like a referendum against the incumbents and the ubiquitous corruption blanketing the region. Unlike most elected officials in the last two years Christie has been a pleasant surprise. Christie is backing a plan to boost purses at Monmouth to $1 million a day. During his six years in office as US Attorney general Christie gained the reputation as something of a corruption-buster, having won convictions or guilty pleas from 130 public officials, both Republican and Democrat. Christie did not lose a single case. While NJ is poised become the premier Northeast venue, vultures are circling New York racing. Don't be surprised if the Belmont stakes in run at Monmouth as soon as 2011 as the situation at NYRA is more dire than many believe.

Monmouth Park


It looks like Christie is listening to smart racing people; unlike New York he is acting on their advice. Christie has come up with a branding approach for New Jersey racing that will define New Jersey racing as an upscale event. For the first time in recent racing history an American track is actually positioning themselves in the market as something other than just another track running yet another race that you can make yet another bet on. Monmouth already has trumped the attendance figures of Belmont; the appealing shore location helps, but now Monmouth is positioned to trump the handle and prestige as well.

New Jersey has proposed a 50 day meet that will only race on Friday, Saturday and Sunday from May 22nd to labor day. The purses will be tremendous; with $1 million a day for the horsemen. Certainly those barns shipping up to New York after the Preakness will want to race at Monmouth and not Belmont. While Jersey is actually running an appealing product, downtrodden Belmont will osculate between$38K statebred/horsemen welfare races and conditioned claiming events. Who will be at Belmont for this extravaganza? The same 1,000 or so beleaguered degenerates that show up everyday until they die.

Monmouth attendance will surge as this become a destination venue that will drive tourism into the area. The scarcity factor of only running on weekends will further make the Jersey shore the place to be. With a fairly new turf course, a familiar 1 mile dirt oval that horsemen prefer and close-in shipping from Philly, Maryland, Delaware, New York and Fair Hill; Monmouth fans can look forward to a horse racing renaissance on the Jersey shore. The expectation is for high class racing, large purses and full fields. This is destination racing that appeals to all demographics; with great racing and a Oceanside location this is a venue that will attract the young and old to the Jersey shore.

Give credit to Christie for matching the product to the venue. With it's seaside location Monmouth should be an upscale meet like Del Mar, not a racing factory like the Philadelphia Park. Give credit to Christie for having the courage to do what's right. This is a leader with that listens to sharp thinkers and has the courage to implement their plans. Like all worthwhile efforts implementing this plan will not be easy; a 50 day meet will not be in every trainer's interest. Christie had the courage to pinch the few for the collective good of all. Trainers with cheaper claimers may have to race at venues like Belmont or Phily that have mundane, unappealing products that card low end races. New Jersey bred horses may not find as much opportunity this year at Monmouth as the high class allowance and stakes horses dominate the entry box. Pushing these barns out of the state was surely not the easy thing to do, but it will prove to be the right thing to do. When the racing is a success, the grandstand is packed, the hotels fill up and Monmouth has a positive buzz all of the apprehension to new ideas will be forgotten. So rare it is to see a man do the right thing for the collective good. Often times these decisions are based on avarice. A decision like this could never happen in neighboring state like New York which lacks vision or leadership.

Chris Christie


Across the Hudson in New York, the state bred welfare races and conditioned claimers will continue to attract a crowd of hardened gamblers, stoopers and the mentally ill. The formerly prestigious New York stakes races are consistently a disappointment. These stakes races have short uninteresting fields that are consistently relegated to early part of the card. As the quality of races in New York has declined the stakes races have proven to be an unattractive wagering proposition. With little to no new ideas in New York the game is suffering a painful death; "little me too" style social marketing initiatives has not atoned for the horrible product. NYRA has waited through a nine year long slot machine farce that has reduced New York racing into a pathetic groveling parasite. NYRA needs to break free from the clasp of Albany and try to replicate the virtues of Monmouth. The Big-A and Belmont needs to be positioned in the market and the venues must be upgraded.

the carcass of the Big-A rots

While New Jersey is set to flourish the parasites have multiplied at NYRA. You know death is imminent when the vultures have begun to descend on the carcass. Contrast Christie's bold leadership to Spitzer's and Paterson's whore mongering, drug use and political opportunism. These two New York governors are men without a moral compass. Their behavior ipso facto demonstrates that they are not fit to lead. Spitzer's lack of a moral compass was his undoing; it looks like Patterson is following in his footsteps. It is men like this with a lack of character that are poisoning the waters that all New Yorkers drink. A culture of corruption pervades the entire state. OTB balances their books by not paying their debts. This is a abject lack of leadership in New York and it is flavoring everything we do. No longer can NYRA play the victim and passively let their product deteriorate. NYRA must stop wasting time on twitter and start pressuring Albany to find the courage it needs to make the right decisions.

Scared Of The Girl

Looks like Asmussen and Jackson are wielding Rachel Alexandra like a poker player wields a pair of aces. He shows his trump hand and everyone folds. It is no surprise that this group of horsemen are not scared to fold a hand with so many games available for three year old colts. The announcement that Rachel is targeting the Haskell has scared off potential pace duelers Papa Clem and Big Drama. This sets the stage for a Rachel showcase where she has everything her own way. Her reputation is beginning to help her as her mere presence is leveling the competition before she even hits the track.

Monmouth Rolls Out The Red Carpet For Rachel

Monmouth is the best track of them all for attracting star three year old horses. This year Monmouth continues the tradition by luring star filly Rachel Alexandra for the Haskell Invitational. Monmouth is not afraid to turn this race into more of a showcase than an actual horserace. It is the closest thing to the Harlem Globetrotters/Washington Generals in horse racing. This year a filly will play the Globetrotters.

The crowd wants horses that were on TV during the triple crown and Monmouth delivers those horses to the New Jersey racing fans. Monmouth has been know to pay appearance fees to connections for bringing their three year olds to the Haskell. Not only do the connections receive an appearance fee but they are treated like gold. It seems like every year there is a dominant performance from a top three year old that competed in the triple crown series.


With appearance fees luring top horses to the Haskell the race has been a showcase for favorites year after year. This is not the race to look for a longshot. The only upset I can recall in the last few years was Peace Rules upsetting Funny Cide in 2003 but was Peace Rules returning $6.00 really an upset? The speed favoring surface played to Peace Rules running style, this is the race to showcase classy front running route three year olds. Rachel Alexandra fits the Haskell to a tee.


This year you can expect Monmouth to jump through every hoop for Rachel Alexandra. Start with an generous appearance fee, then add in the red carpet treatment for the connections and top it off with a speed favoring track for her running style. The NJSEA which runs Monmouth will pull out every stop. This is Rachel's showcase at the shore, she is a dominating presence that will scare away other horses. Look for other speed horses like Big Drama to defect from the race. If Rachel is out there all alone on the speed favoring Monmouth surface deep closers like Summer Bird will have little chance to confront her in the lane. It will not even be close.

Rachel should win this $1million dollar invitational race with ease. This race will be a showcase and you can expect the same type of crowd pleasing performance as she offered in the Mother Goose. It should be a great day to watch a dominating performance by the shore.

The Monmouth Stakes Is Time To Toss Big Brown

The Monmouth Stakes looks like a great betting opportunity. Big Brown will likely be 4-5 in here and would not be a surprise to be up the track. The field in the Haskell was weak for a 3YO Grade 1 with Coal Play coming back in the Travers only to be shellacked at a huge price. This three year old crop needs to prove itself against older before they have the right to be favored. With Big Brown the likely favorite, the value here is tremendous and it is not everyday you can toss a heavy favorite with such ease from the top two frames.

Even though this custom made race is ungraded it is versus older Graded stakes winner and is a huge step up in class for the Brown one. Brown may this custom, made to order race needs to see the tailor before he fits in perfectly. Other than the class issues there is the nagging foot issues with Big Brown. If class and bad feet are not enough to make you toss Big Brown then there is the trainer, while Dutrow who is great extracting for a few months of sterling form out of his horses, he is also known for having his horses hit a wall if they stay in training for too long. It is time Big Brown hits the wall.

The basic move here is to box the class older horses in here in exactas, tri and supers.

#3 Shakis / #6 Proudinsky / #7 Drum Major / #11 Silver Tree boxed in every thing.