With six Breeders' Cup races on Friday and nine on Saturday, it is almost certain financial doom to play every race. With this being said, we here at Powercap introduce the almost infallible five star rating system to evaluate the races on hand.
The Friday Slate
*****
The Distaff (Race 10)
Last year it was a rematch of Havre de Grace and Blind Luck, this year It's Tricky and Plum Pretty square off for the fourth time this year. Elsewhere in the field is Ask the Moon, her connections made an interesting decision of running at Santa Anita in her latest to no avail after two good efforts at the Spa. If she can rebound from her last race, she will be a tough customer here.
****
The Filly & Mare Turf (Race 9)
This is the race where the American based turf runners have the best chance of winning against the Europeans on their familiar surface. Stacelita is listed as the 2/1 favorite and has the edge of winning at 1 3/8 miles around the tight turns. Her last race was over a turf that was dead slow, my figures have it at -19 slow.
***
The Filly & Mare Sprint (Race 7)
Turbulent Descent looks to sew up a title here and she looks like a vulnerable favorite. The Puype filly has been off since early August and the early pace of that race was average at best before Descent blew by competition like Roman Treasure late.
An interesting horse in this spot is Great Hot who had two starts in October and a start against her elders in the Lady's Secret. Her sprint starts are decent from the looks of it going three for three in her attempts.
The Juvenile Sprint (Race 5)
Yet another juvenile cash grab has been added to the schedule. Trinniberg has come up short twice against stakes competition. Secret Circle ran big in his debut race. Toss Vexor's Hopeful performance and he doesn't miss the board in his short career. Seeker had a big race two back on Hopeful day. It should be a good first installment for this race.
**
The Juvenile Fillies (Race 8)
My Miss Aurelia looks to avoid the career trajectory that AZ Warrior took after her win in last year's Frizette.
*
The Juvenile Fillies Turf (Race 6)
On the course of any card there is a race or two that handicappers don't like playing and the combined phrase of juvenile fillies on the turf is my kryptonite.
The Saturday Slate
*****
The Classic (Race 11)
The five million dollar question here is Uncle Mo's ability to stay the mile and a quarter. The last time a three year old favorite tried stretching out from one mile to a mile and a quarter was Fusaichi Pegasus. It didn't work in 2000, I have my doubts it will work now. Keep in mind that Fusaichi Pegasus was trying this after winning the Derby. The longest distance that Mo has won at was a mile and a sixteenth.
Ruler On Ice looks interesting here, he gets a ten pound weight shift from To Honor and Serve and has won at a mile and half. Stay Thirsty also gets another look here as the unheralded Repole entry here, he ran in every step of the Belmont and won the midsummer classic. To Honor and Serve comes in hot here and the only setback is he is picking up eight pounds off of his previous start.
****
The Sprint (Race 5)
I guess that Zito is one of the twelve readers of this blog.
The Mile (Race 10)
Apparently Goldikova is on the decline, if I owned a horse that was on this type downward spiral I would be overjoyed. Win or lose, this mare's spot as one of the all time Breeders' Cup performers is secure. It will be quite a while until another one like her comes around.
***
The Dirt Mile (Race 7)
In a rare occurrence the Preakness winner is in a race that is not the Classic. In his defeats since the Preakness the margin has been 7 3/4, a neck, 22 1/2, and 4 3/4. He is probably a good bet against here.
Tapizar came back with a victory after missing the Triple Crown series, he is probably a bit short for this spot. He does look like one to watch out for in the 2012 season though.
Trappe Shot is in this race after seemingly being aimed at the Sprint all season long, his running style better meant for the mile distance though. Not a lot was lost in transition to this race.
The Juvenile Turf (Race 4)
If it weren't for the Pilgrim returnees entered here this race would be a one star affair. Shkspeare Shaliyah and Fantastic Song ran a closing number over the dead boggy turf that was 14 and 17 lengths faster than average. Not bad for a turf runner and that is exceptional for juveniles.
**
The Juvenile (Race 9)
Union Rags could wrap up the Juvenile title and Derby favoritism with a win here. It seems like anytime there is a two year colt that wins two or three big races in NY they are immediately shot to the front of every public handicapper's Derby list. They usually fall short of the Derby expectations. It happened to Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve last year, Nobiz Like Shobiz years ago, and Doneraile Court around a decade ago. The last time a hyped NY juvenile won a triple crown race was 2004 when Birdstone upset the Triple Crown bid of Smarty Jones.
The Turf (Race 8)
The European invaders will all be bet here and Steven Crist is a big fan of the American turf runners entered. Of course the overseas counterparts have a great edge, they carry weight in the big races and all of their marquee events are on the lawn.
*
The Marathon (Race 3)
The Turf Sprint (Race 6)
These two categories are also my handicapping kryptonite.
Power cap- existential handicapping
Showing posts with label To Honor and Serve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label To Honor and Serve. Show all posts
03 November 2011
27 September 2011
Get to know a BC prospect: To Honor and Serve
The Breeders’ Cup is a double-edged sword, what it offers in deep fields with an inordinate amount of quality horse flesh also takes away from other tracks due to trainers meticulously planning their schedules around having their horses ready for the big day. That being said it does help to scout and assess the top prospects leading up to the two days. Much like what we did for the lead up to the Kentucky Derby, we will do a series on these runners in their march towards November. Time to better get to know a Breeder’s Cup prospect.
Likely race he will be entered in: Classic
What’s old is new, back in the spring this Mott runner was not up to the rigors of the Triple Crown series and much like fellow juvenile superstar Uncle Mo he missed the big dance completely. Whatever problems he had are behind him after two straight authoritative wins at two turns going nine furlongs. Stamina for the mile and a quarter journey that he will likely embark on should not be a problem with Bernardini as the sire and the dam's sire being Deputy Minister.
With three races from the span of August 1st to September 24th and two wins to show from it, one being a win in the Pennsylvania Derby it is hard not say he is in top physical shape right now. The Classic has had its share of three-year-old colts take down the big prize. Curlin, Tiznow, and Concern come to mind; what is a recurring trait among them is that they put in strong efforts in their races leading up to the big day.
In To Honor and Serve’s Saratoga romp, his early pace figures against the adjusted average calls were twelve and eleven lengths faster than par and his speed figure was eight lengths faster when he was clear and coasting home. His biggest advantage may not be on pace and speed figures either, he was sidelined during the big three races in the spring. Now he is back as a fresh runner while the rest of his class has been butting heads for the past couple of months. If he remains sound and sharp he will be a dangerous runner on the big day of racing.
Likely race he will be entered in: Classic
What’s old is new, back in the spring this Mott runner was not up to the rigors of the Triple Crown series and much like fellow juvenile superstar Uncle Mo he missed the big dance completely. Whatever problems he had are behind him after two straight authoritative wins at two turns going nine furlongs. Stamina for the mile and a quarter journey that he will likely embark on should not be a problem with Bernardini as the sire and the dam's sire being Deputy Minister.
With three races from the span of August 1st to September 24th and two wins to show from it, one being a win in the Pennsylvania Derby it is hard not say he is in top physical shape right now. The Classic has had its share of three-year-old colts take down the big prize. Curlin, Tiznow, and Concern come to mind; what is a recurring trait among them is that they put in strong efforts in their races leading up to the big day.
In To Honor and Serve’s Saratoga romp, his early pace figures against the adjusted average calls were twelve and eleven lengths faster than par and his speed figure was eight lengths faster when he was clear and coasting home. His biggest advantage may not be on pace and speed figures either, he was sidelined during the big three races in the spring. Now he is back as a fresh runner while the rest of his class has been butting heads for the past couple of months. If he remains sound and sharp he will be a dangerous runner on the big day of racing.
24 February 2011
Kentucky Derby Failure Five, Round Two
The first edition of the failure five saw two of the five horses mentioned drop off the pathway, Boys at Toscanova and Tapizar. Tapizar ran poorly in the Bob Lewis Stakes and an injury was found shortly after the race, Boys at Toscanova was not training well and was removed from consideration due to this. In light of this, it is time to update the list.
1. Uncle Mo
The Derby Futures morning line favorite among the entries listed and there is not much to report on this one. Gulfstream Park wrote a race up around the same time as the Tampa Bay Derby in hopes of luring this horse away from Tampa Bay Downs. I’m sure this glorified allowance race will not fill though.
2. To Honor and Serve
The three-year-old debut of this horse will be this Saturday in the Fountain of Youth Stakes; this race produced Eskendereya last year. In related news, Belmont Stakes ticket applications are being accepted now. The only reason this is relative is the fact that for a horse to win the Triple Crown he has to have experience over the Belmont oval, To Honor and Serve has that going for him and the connections go a long way as well. With that being said he will probably either miss the Derby completely or be a tough luck loser in the first leg and run the table in the last two legs. That seems to be the way things go in this sport.
3. Dialed In
There seems to be a recurring theme with this group of three-year-olds, it is that they don’t race much. The top two are still working out and this one will skip a showdown with To Honor and Serve to train up to the Florida Derby. It should be noted that this horse was the co-second choice on the morning line with To Honor and Serve in the futures pool with only two starts to his name. This horse is set up to fall short with this type of schedule, if everything goes according to plan he would make it to the Derby with only three starts and a running style that requires a perfect trip in order to win. Curlin was one of the better horses to compete in the last twenty or so years and he could not pull off a Derby victory with a light schedule leading up to the race, how could this horse be any different?
4. Mucho Macho Man
An old angle that has worked almost every winter and spring with the three-year-olds has been that if a trainer ships a horse out of their home base, the horse will be a force to be reckoned with. It struck again this weekend when Mucho Macho Man shipped to Fair Grounds and beat a wide-open field in the Risen Star. Chances are this horse will train in Florida and race again in the Louisiana Derby. Using Fair Grounds as a springboard to the Kentucky Derby has not been a successful route. The last horse to win the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby was Grindstone back in 1996.
5. The Factor
One California speedball gets knocked out of the frame only to get replaced by another. Baffert has not stated that he is aiming this one for the big dance, but seeing how it is a three-year-old trained by Baffert it is a safe bet he will take a shot at this with a race going two turns in the near future. Two races Baffert cited the Sunland Derby or the Rebel Stakes as possible next starts.
1. Uncle Mo
The Derby Futures morning line favorite among the entries listed and there is not much to report on this one. Gulfstream Park wrote a race up around the same time as the Tampa Bay Derby in hopes of luring this horse away from Tampa Bay Downs. I’m sure this glorified allowance race will not fill though.
2. To Honor and Serve
The three-year-old debut of this horse will be this Saturday in the Fountain of Youth Stakes; this race produced Eskendereya last year. In related news, Belmont Stakes ticket applications are being accepted now. The only reason this is relative is the fact that for a horse to win the Triple Crown he has to have experience over the Belmont oval, To Honor and Serve has that going for him and the connections go a long way as well. With that being said he will probably either miss the Derby completely or be a tough luck loser in the first leg and run the table in the last two legs. That seems to be the way things go in this sport.
3. Dialed In
There seems to be a recurring theme with this group of three-year-olds, it is that they don’t race much. The top two are still working out and this one will skip a showdown with To Honor and Serve to train up to the Florida Derby. It should be noted that this horse was the co-second choice on the morning line with To Honor and Serve in the futures pool with only two starts to his name. This horse is set up to fall short with this type of schedule, if everything goes according to plan he would make it to the Derby with only three starts and a running style that requires a perfect trip in order to win. Curlin was one of the better horses to compete in the last twenty or so years and he could not pull off a Derby victory with a light schedule leading up to the race, how could this horse be any different?
4. Mucho Macho Man
An old angle that has worked almost every winter and spring with the three-year-olds has been that if a trainer ships a horse out of their home base, the horse will be a force to be reckoned with. It struck again this weekend when Mucho Macho Man shipped to Fair Grounds and beat a wide-open field in the Risen Star. Chances are this horse will train in Florida and race again in the Louisiana Derby. Using Fair Grounds as a springboard to the Kentucky Derby has not been a successful route. The last horse to win the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby was Grindstone back in 1996.
5. The Factor
One California speedball gets knocked out of the frame only to get replaced by another. Baffert has not stated that he is aiming this one for the big dance, but seeing how it is a three-year-old trained by Baffert it is a safe bet he will take a shot at this with a race going two turns in the near future. Two races Baffert cited the Sunland Derby or the Rebel Stakes as possible next starts.
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