Big Brown Showed Some Heart Today

Big Brown showed real gameness in the lane today holding off the trio of Shakis, Proudinsky and Silver Tree. At the top of the lane it looked like he was going to get overwhelmed and passed by that threesome of older graded stakes winners. He held well and was as game as could be. As a three year old beating older on a surface switch I thought it was a great effort. However at 3-5 all I could do was tip my cap to him as I thought he was a huge bet against today. Wrong again, but it was sure fun watching.

The Monmouth Stakes Is Time To Toss Big Brown

The Monmouth Stakes looks like a great betting opportunity. Big Brown will likely be 4-5 in here and would not be a surprise to be up the track. The field in the Haskell was weak for a 3YO Grade 1 with Coal Play coming back in the Travers only to be shellacked at a huge price. This three year old crop needs to prove itself against older before they have the right to be favored. With Big Brown the likely favorite, the value here is tremendous and it is not everyday you can toss a heavy favorite with such ease from the top two frames.

Even though this custom made race is ungraded it is versus older Graded stakes winner and is a huge step up in class for the Brown one. Brown may this custom, made to order race needs to see the tailor before he fits in perfectly. Other than the class issues there is the nagging foot issues with Big Brown. If class and bad feet are not enough to make you toss Big Brown then there is the trainer, while Dutrow who is great extracting for a few months of sterling form out of his horses, he is also known for having his horses hit a wall if they stay in training for too long. It is time Big Brown hits the wall.

The basic move here is to box the class older horses in here in exactas, tri and supers.

#3 Shakis / #6 Proudinsky / #7 Drum Major / #11 Silver Tree boxed in every thing.

Breeder's Cup Advance Look

Two months out from the Breeders Cup and the storyline is taking shape. With the switch to the new Pro-Ride surface Europeans will be lured into races traditionally dominated by the Americans like the Classic or Distaff(Ladies Classic). For a great run down of all the contenders check out this sharp resource that provides tremendous information on Breeders Cup Betting. Bodog has a tremendous amount of information on all of the Breeders Cup contenders and is the place where savvy handicappers make their plays.

Classic
This year is wide open if defending champ Curlin does not enter. IEAH stable has many legit chances throughout the Breeder's Cup card, however the likely favorite for the race Big Brown is a complete and total toss. This will be a great race to find some value with a favorite that only has a small chance of winning.
Top Competitors

Go Between- Confirmed synthetic lover, his win in the Pacific Classic as the favorite validated his synthetic surface form.

Henrythenavigator- undefeated in Europe this year and has won races gamely. Check out his last win in the Sussex stakes. Giants Causeway who scored in the Arc and just missed in the 2000 classic won the Sussex stakes for the Ballydoyle yard.

Colonel John- Confirmed distance ability and gameness in Travers score. Already is a confirmed synthetic lover as the facile winner of the Santa Anita derby.

Breeders Cup Turf
Year after year this race is dominated by European shippers. This year the local west coast turf contingent is very weak. The leading local horse Spring House does not class up at all. All of the top contenders ship in from Europe.

Archipenko- Ran well in the Arlington Million in defeat. Has the right run style for the ultra firm, ultra tight Santa Anita course. A force if he ships over.

Duke Of Marmalade-This guy has developed into a force for the Ballydoyle Yard. The Duke is undefeated this year. He confirmed his top form at 12 furlongs taking the King George at Ascot by an astounding 9 lengths. He recently added the Group I Juddmonte International to his tally, his fifth Group I score of the year. Needs to hold top form for two more months. The Arc may take the starch out of him. Follow him closely.

Soldier Of Fortune-O'Briens other horse for the turf will be live if he makes it in.

Breeder's Cup Mile

Kip Deville- has been sensational in his two starts and has conformed form at Santa Anita taking the Kilroe mile there in 2007. This Oklahoma bred dominates this usually wide open race.

Whatsthescript- Local horse won the Del Mar mile the other day. Usually needs pace to make his run and there is typically great pace in the Breeder's Cup Mile. Legit contender with a hometown advantage.

Out Of Control- Frankel's Stud TNT import is solid at a mile on the turf. This one will beat Big Brown in the Monmouth Stakes on 13SEP. You heard it here first. He has won in California. p[']

TVG Sprint

Benny The Bull has been phenomenal this year and his retirement leaves a gapping void in the division. This promises to be a wide open race. The other power horse in the division Midnight Lute will stay away from the rubber and jelly cable for synthetic hater Baffert. I would lean towards the local California horses in this race.

In Summation- loves synthetic and may be a price after a few tough defeats. Top pick at a price.

Rebellion- Close second in Pat O'Brien at Del Mar. His deep closing style may work well as the sprint sometimes completely falls apart, especially on synthetic.

Lucky Island- East coast division leader will be the favorite in the Forego on Saturday at Saratoga. Won the Tom Fool over a suspect field. He can rate and is from a top barn. The Pro-Ride surface would be his first race over synthetic.

Too Many Kent Desormeaux Bashers

Big Brown faded in the Belmont due to his lack of training for the race. The ride had little to nothing to due with his finishing last. There has been some criticism that Desormeaux cost Big Borwn the race, that is simply not true. It was the training that was compromised by quarter crack left him completely unprepared to tackle the test of a champion.

So what should have Kent done? Instead of trying to rate Big Brown he could have tried plan b. Plan B would have been to take the very rank Brown and hook a 39-1 shot so they could duel like Smarty Jones dueled in his failed triple crown attempt. We all know how much people praise Stewy Elliot for his ride in the 2004 Belmont, but it seems like everyone wanted Desormeaux to redux Elliot's enterprising front end steal attempt. Do you really want to hook a need the lead horse in a 12 furlong race? How smart would have that been?

Big Brown was so rank that it would have been a helluva duel with Da' Tara. 23 flat, 46 flat and 111 neck and neck, nip and tuck. Either way rating or dueling, Big Brown was fading on the turn and up the track, his destiny was written in stone. Brown did not have his mind or the gas in the tank to see out the trip in the Belmont. He was handled too conservatively due to his sore hoof and it showed in the performance. His lack of training and lack of activity left him with too much nervous energy and it completely took him out of his game. Nobody could have won on Big Brown in the Belmont.

Desultory Brown

The wheels fell off the Big Brown express today. As good as he looked in the Derby and Preakness Big Brown was just plain terrible today. Fractious in the detention barn, nervous in the paddock, rank in the early part of the race, he did not run his race today. The boastful Dutrow who dared the racing gods, received his punishment for his gross arrogance. When confidence grows into arrogance the punishment is usually swift and stout and Dutrow's arrogance was punished today. . Dutrow provided great theater with his antics and no doubt Dutrow's antics made his loss was very satisfying to many people. Before there Derby we wrote these words.

Usually one can get away with this attitude for only so long before the game gives out a maximum dose of bad racing luck. Try going to the track with this attitude and making wagers, talk about a humbling experience. This type of talk is very polarizing, I see that Big Brown can go one of two ways. He is either going to run a fricken' hole in the wind and drop jaws or the horse is going to be up the track. If this horse does not win, he will not hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown's performance is going to be something extraordinary or something commonly dull. When this horse gets beat it is going to be ugly.

1:00 Flat For Big Brown

Big Brown worked 1:00 flat this morning at Belmont in preparation for the Belmont stakes. Word is everything looks good and he is on schedule for for his date with destiny on Saturday.

Dutrow-Iavarone Bashers Need To Step Up Their Game

Commenter Rufus Youngblood came back with a fair rebuttal to the Dutrow/Iavarone post and would like to expand on the topic. Mr. Youngblood made many cogent points which I agree with and I think he is on-point regarding IEAH. Hopefully they will do the right thing and have Brown race a few more times and get in the gate for a mega race with Curlin. However I think the barrage of articles, internet blogs and comments about Dutrow and Iavarone completely miss the point and are more of a expression of jealousy and envy than well thought out criticism of what Big Brown means to the sport.

If these people wanted to bash Dutrow and Iavarone they should have had the substance to consider the present and the future in their attacks. The Bloomberg article was a strait up smear piece and the anonymous commenter-cockroach that dug up and made up a bunch of stuff about Dutrow was even worse. Digging up some dirt from the early 1980's and 1990's ignores the pertinent issues and frankly shows the bashers to be envious, hateful, close-minded people.

Bashing Dutrow because of his brashness shows that the bashers are close-minded, inexperienced and square. The real way charactor is measured is in how treats his horses, how he treats his family and his staff. Those that think Dutrow is rude and uncouth are missing that he is good for the game with his big mouth, a real headline maker in a game desperate for headlines.

If these bashers could focus on how Big Brown is going to be retired and cashed out like a savings bond, their bashing might be something I could get behind. At this point it smacks of jealousy, envy and shallow social experience. I can not get behind this bandwagon to nowhere. They can keep the character assassination, perhaps a more educated mode of attack, one that focuses on how IEAH is going to crap all over the game, is something I could agree with a bit more.

Big Brown Should Race On Turf And Should Take On Curlin

With all of Big Brown's hoof issues why not look for a kinder surface and run the colt on the turf after the Belmont? Not only could this be good for his hoof but it could round out his limited resume.

Iavarone and Dutrow could take on older in the Arlington Million, this would be a thrilling win in a race known all around the world, not some huge drop in class cop out. For the breeding angle a Arlington Million win would give him appeal to the European breeders. Instead of shipping to hot and hard California for the Poly/Cushion/Polymer Classic he could contest the Canadian International, just like Secretariat. $2 million purse and a field of world class turf horses.

If the Big B wins the triple crown he has proven that he can beat the dirt three year olds of his generation. To continue to run in races like the Travers belabors the point and degrades the hooves. Considering his limited career it is important that the brash Dutrow plans out a campaign that will round out Big Browns resume. His record could use a stakes turf win if he wants to be considered great. Secretariat took to the turf and so did the great Dr Fager. Team Big Brown should use some of that confidence and braggadocio from the recent press conferences and take this horse back to where he started on the lawn. A horse with a limited resume needs to have quality and variety on his resume if he wants to be considered great.

After the late Summer/Fall turf campaign a showdown with Curlin would blow the lid off the Big Brown hype machine. NYRA could arrange a special race at the end of the year for Big Brown, Curlin and others. We are talking about a huge purse $3 million or more. Not only would this be a major racing event, but it would be a major media and sporting event. The profiles of all the horses would be raised by running in this race win or lose. There is the potential for the race of the decade if big talking Dutrow and Iavarone are game enough to take on Curlin. This is what the sport needs. It would be a huge event, something beyond the Breeders Cup. The purse could be sponsored by UPS and it could be televised all around the world.

IEAH & Team Big Brown Donating Part Of Purse To Injured Police Officer On Long Island

From NYRA Press Office

The owners of Triple Crown hopeful Big Brown Friday announced they would donate a portion of the colt’s earnings from the $1 million Belmont Stakes on June 7 to help a establish a scholarship fund for the young son of a Nassau County police officer who was critically injured in the line of duty.

On May 18, a drunken driver with a suspended license slammed into Kenneth Baribault’s police car during a traffic stop the Long Island Expressway. Baribault had pulled over a sport utility vehicle on suspicion of drunken driving when the driver of a silver Mercedes, whom police said was drunk, plowed into the back of the police cruiser,. The impact pushed the police car into the SUV and lifted it six feet off the ground, according to witnesses.

Baribault remains in a coma at Nassau County Medical Center, having undergone surgery to relieve swelling to his brain.

In a news conference at Belmont Park, IEAH Stable owners Michael Iavarone and Richard Schiavo, both of Long Island, pledged to donate a substantial portion of whatever Big Brown earns in the final leg of racing’s Triple Crown toward college expenses for Baribault’s six-year-old son, Chris.

“In time like this it is imperative we come together,” said Iavarone. “We want to stand up and make something good happen. It’s not just a financial thing – we want to be there for the family.”

Nassau County Executive Thomas R. Suozzi and Police Commissioner Lawrence W. Mulvey, both of whom spoke in front of the statue of 1973 Triple Crown winner Secretariat in Belmont Park’s paddock, praised the owners for their generosity.

“We are all pulling for Big Brown in the Belmont here on Long Island, but we are also pulling for Big Blue -- Kenny Baribault,” said Suozzi. “This means the family has one less thing to worry about as he recovers. It’s one less burden in his family’s life.”

Big Brown, an impressive winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, is the big favorite to win the 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes and become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed swept all three races in 1978. He will be ridden in the race by Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux, who suffered a skull fracture in 1990 when he was kicked in the head by a trailing horse following a spill.

“This is very close to home,” said Desormeaux. “I was five seconds away from being in an induced coma when I was trampled by a horse. My prayers are with the family.”

Big Brown’s trainer, Richard Dutrow Jr., said the officer’s family has a standing invitation to come visit Big Brown in his barn at Belmont Park.

“No one has asked that I know of, but they are welcome,” he said.

Big Brown went to the track at 5:30 a.m. Friday and galloped for a mile and a half, said his regular exercise rider, Michelle Nevin.

“He went for a walk through the paddock – it’s beautiful day for horses,” she said.

The colt, undefeated in his first five races, is scheduled to breeze a week from Saturday, weather permitting.

Big Brown Will Have To Earn The Crown From The Ruling Family

The way the triple crown sets up this year is strait from a storybook. The drama has been unfolding around us in between the lines of the racing form. The undefeated winner of the Kentucky Derby demolished the field, in fact his nearest competitor suffered mortal injuries chasing him home. If he was a boxer would you want to face him if his last competitor died in his last bout? One one from the Derby dared to face him in the Preakness. His win from the twenty spot was a complete validation of his undefeated form and established Big Brown as a rising force.


The Preakness was a pure runway, it was the easiest of winners "as the rider pleased", nobody even coming close to the Brownster. Perhaps giving him the easy race he needs to pull off what has not been completed in thirty years.

Standing in his way is the ruling family of Belmont, blood is thicker than water and the Better Than Honour family has been assigned the role of protecting the integrity of the triple crown. There will be no walkover in Elmont as Casino Drive is representing the Better Than Honour Dynasty. Casino Drive's role is to make sure Big Brown receives a proper test before the triple crown title is issued for the first time in thirty years. If Big Brown is not up to the twelve furlong test of a champion, the Better Than Honour Dynasty will rule for at least another 365 rotations of the earth. The meeting in the Belmont paddock looms.

Big Brown Wins As The Rider Pleased In The Preakness

Big Brown toyed with this field like a Grade one winner would toy with a field of Charles Town non winner of two lifetime claimers. Big Browns romp was a draw dropping performance. There can only be two reactions to this type of race. Absolute awe in his breathtaking efficiency of motion or complete rejection of the horse and everything he stands for. These is no "he is okay", this horse and his connections are polarizers and that type of emotion is good for the game.

The Belmont is shaping up to be a major event, perhaps the sporting event of the year. Between the looming hope of a triple crown winner and the international presence from Japan the attendance record of 124K in 2004 may be in jeopardy.

More Riding On The Preakness Than The Purse

My most prominent wish for the Preakness is that all the horses return to their barns ambulatory and safe. Never before have a felt like this before a horse race. It is like the game of racing is carrying a Ming vase while crossing a tight rope, fighting a strong crosswind with a huge crowd watching every move. If racing breaks the Vase public opinion may damn the game to exile, like fringe sports such as dog racing or Jai-Alai. Despite the promises of many not to watch racing, I am sure the Preakness will garner a huge TV audience, fueled by the headlines of Eight Belles breakdown, people will be very curious to see what happens in the Preakness. Should tragedy strike once again, it would be like racing broke the Ming vase they promised to carry to safety, the uproar will be deafening and certainly understandable. The public is losing patience with horses breaking down on TV.

The Preakness axis of attention centers around Big Brown. He is of course a prohibitive favorite to win. I will be rooting for him to win to set up a huge showdown at Belmont. Racing needs redemption and Big Brown and his connections can redeem the game with a few more wins and doing the right thing with the horse and his campaign. IEAH has taken a beating in the media but it is not justified. So far they have been nothing but successful in a very tough game. Perhaps they are victims of racetrack jealousy, and having names that end in vowels. Hopefully they do right for the game.

Like Washington Irving would, I will be making a few bets on the New York Bred Icabad Crane. Hopefully he can figure out a way to finish off the exacta as Big Brown romps to a commanding victory. Mostly I hope they all come back safe.

Big Brown Retirement Looms

In the tradition started by Secretariat, and repeated with Point Given, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, and Street Sense, Big Brown triple crown race winner is going to be retired during or after his three year old season.

For the fans this is no surprise but it is yet another bummer for the game. While Secretariat had the decency to finish his three year old season, it would not be much of a surprise if Big Brown retires after the Preakness if he loses the race. However I am suspicious that he may retire after the Belmont regardless of the outcome as he has built up his reputation to gargantuan scale, why soil it by exposing his lack of foundation. The way horses are typically campaigned these days is sort of like building the facade of a beautiful castle, a castle so grand and exquisite that it elicits ewes and ahhs from all that see it. However the foundation is non-existent and the interior is barren, so why invite the smitten crowd in to see the interior of your castles facade? Sell it while the crowd is in mid ahh and the stock is at its paramount. While most of us can see through this charade and would surely want to take a look inside before investing, why is the breeding and auction industry so smitten with these facades?

My question is why do horses like this do well at stud? Their form is so thin and such an insult to the game, it is almost like a mirage, without any foundation or soundness. This is like buying a car that could go zero to sixty in 3 seconds but is likely to completely stop running a mile from the dealer. Sort of like a 1986 Yugo with a Ferrari V12 engine. Yet these completely unsound "cars" are what are in vogue in the horse auction business. This proves that money and long term smart thinking does not necessarily go hand and hand. Are the managers, owners and buyers of horses really this foolish to breed to horses with known confirmation/soundness issues? Hopefully we will soon cycle out of this short term thinking as a new generation emerges to take stewardship of the game.

Dutrow So Confident In Big Brown

The racing game disdains the kind of confidence that Dutrow is dealing when he speaks about Big Brown. While I admire his confidence, Dutrow is double dog daring the looming hand of racing luck to smack him and his horse down.

"Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race," Dutrow said in a typical recent interview. "I'm training this horse for a horse race; I don't care what the name of it is. I feel he's the best horse in the race - I feel he's going to win the race. Anything else is going to be extremely disappointing to me.

"I know there's no one going into this race as good as he is right now. If he breaks clean, it's a mismatch to me on paper."

Usually one can get away with this attitude for only so long before the game gives out a maximum dose of bad racing luck. Try going to the track with this attitude and making wagers, talk about a humbling experience. This type of talk is very polarizing, I see that Big Brown can go one of two ways. He is either going to run a fricken' hole in the wind and drop jaws or the horse is going to be up the track. If this horse does not win, he will not hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown's performance is going to be something extraordinary or something commonly dull. When this horse gets beat it is going to be ugly.

Big Brown Delivers A Big Statement -Tomcito Says Hola

On paper the Florida Derby looked like the most exciting prep yet for the Kentucky Derby. We had the Big Brown express delivery service, the Peruvian Conquistador, the Majestic Aristocrat and a supporting cast of useful colts. The race lived up to the billing. Big Brown delivered an express package arriving to the wire quickly and unscathed. Brown lived up to the hype that Dutrow and Desormeaux had been spreading all week making those two look like horseracing profits.

If Big Brown and his quarter cracks can make it to the first Saturday in May he will surely be the favorite and a formidable force on the front end. The challenge for Dutrow to keep this Big Brown blaster on edge for five long weeks. So much so soon for this Big Brown but he surely has more of that brilliant form available for delivery. There will be many people counting on him to deliver on derby day after this command performance.

The win capped off a memorable day for Dutrow, perhaps a day like that has only been trumped by Mandella's 2003 Breeders Cup quad win day. Dutrow started off the day annexing the Godolphin Mile with Diamond Stripes, moved on to Benny The Bull's Golden Shaheen, and placed himself front and center by introducing the world to the Kentucky Derby favorite. He even won the night cap at Gulfstream after the Florida Derby. Have to give him credit for one of the great days ever in racing. Dutrow like Big Brown is a polarizing figure and everyone has an strong opinion about the man one way or the other.

Tomcito made his much anticipated American debut and ran a promising race. After being outrun early he persevered for third. It was the kind of race that a horse can move forward from, and it was a positive first time experience. The connections must be pleased and hopeful for future success. If there is some massive pace melt down in the derby or Belmont Tomcito is the kind of runner that is poised to pick up the pieces. He could make an impact if the chips fall his way. He is the kind of horse with a long form cycle, he should improve and run many honest races.

The Florida derby completely changed the Derby picture. All of the internet, media and newspaper Derby lists will have to be amended to make way for Big Brown up top. Big Brown's race was like the delivery of a birthday cake with an surprise exotic dancer bursting out when you least expected it. It was thrilling, exciting and something that got the heart racing. Tomcito's race was like a new Latino neighbor coming by to drop off their flan recipe. Tomcito's race was good, you enjoyed meeting the new neighbor but the exotic dancer and the cake completely rocked your world and made the flan seem quite ordinary in every way. Keep in mind that in the future the flan recipe could prove much more useful than the exotic dancer in the cake.

Weekend Derby Prep Action 29MAR

The Florida Derby is the most serious derby prep so far along the trail. $1 million purse is also the largest and certainly the most interesting prep in what has been a uneventful derby trail. The Favorite is Big Brown who is a polarizing animal. People are wither swooning over him or labeling him as a cheap plug that has beaten nobody of consequence. A horse that has so much sway over the thoughts and actions of people must have substance, I think that he runs huge here, especially since he needs the graded earnings for connections that would love nothing more than to go to Louisville on the First Saturday in May.

The other interesting horse is Tomcito whose exploits have been extensively chronicled on websites like this one and others. For a horse that has earned $54K he has received more than his fair share of hype. After reviewing his fast works I think this cat in bag is going to fire out of the bag quickly and show more speed than expected. I have a growing suspicion that the connections will want him close to the pace to get him used to the faster pace of American racing. Close to the pace will be his undoing, this is a one run closer. He makes his big late run next out but I think the connections want the Florida Derby to be a positive introduction to American racing for Tomcito more than a inauspicious introduction.

Fierce Wind on the rail has won at the distance and track and has four really nice works since the Sam Davis. He has the speed to track the pace and the class to win it. He has a legit claim as a win contender.

Then we have Hey Byrn who has been beating up on allowance foes, over the track and distance he faces a huge class test today could be a poor mans fierce wind as he has a similar running style.

Majestic Warrior despite the stellar pedigree has the shown hints that he might be a closing sprinter, but do you really want to write off this grade I winner so fast? A case could be made here for a massive form reversal. I will let him prove it.

I like that the two top contenders in the race have the far outside post and the far inside post. My friends at the Flushing OTB would say that this race has balanced Feng Shui. With that in mind I wager that both power horses hit the frame. I will play both Fierce Wind and Big Brown.

exacta box 1/12

trifecta 1,12 / ALL / 1,12

Tomcito Watch Part IV

Tomcito is entered in the Grade I Florida Derby at Gulf Stream on Saturday 29MAR. The workout tab looks consistent and he was asked for speed in a big 5 furlong blowout 17MAR. The favorite will be #12 Big Brown who is looking to be the first horse to ever win a 9 furlong race at Gulfstream since they reconfigured the track to 9 furlongs a few years ago. Lots of hype with Big Brown and there are more than a few esteemed handicappers who swoon over Big Brown's two blowout wins. I am looking for an improved effort from the regally bred Majestic Warrior who should be a big price.

Tomcito drew well in post four and we should get a clear view on exactly who Tomcito is. I hope he runs well and adds some much needed intrigue to the triple crown trail. Peruvian Jorge Chavez takes the mount and I hope all of Peru tunes in to see their connections do well.