Oaks-Derby DD

Durkin Out as Triple Crown Announcer

Race-caller Tom Durkin has stepped down from his triple crown announcing gig. It was a decision that Durkin considered for months. "It’s a tough professional decision, but a great personal one." For the horse racing nation this a tough pill to swallow. Durkin carries around a book with thousands of phrases - it is this dedication and hard work that turns talent into brilliance. If I hear scintillating one more time at the Breeders Cup I am going to have to personally fed-ex a Roget's thesaurus to California. A triple crown replacement has already been named for Durkin; Larry Collmus of Suffolk Down/Monmouth/Gulfstream fame has been tabbed.

This move from Durkin to Collmus is a huge step down. We go from the Tom "Cadillac" Durkin to Larry "Honda Accord" Collmus. Like the Honda Accord Larry is a reliable sort but unfortunately both the Accord and Larry are forgettable. Larry lacks the ability to convey any sort of drama like Tom Durkin can. Collmus is not a bad caller -he is actually one of the best -but he has the unfortunate fate of following the greatest announcer since the invention of the microphone.

Tom Durkin has a background in theater; there is not one racecaller in the country that can project the drama of the race into his racecall like Durkin can. Others can scream, they can yell, or they can recite their fill in the blank racecalls but nobody can get close to the variety and feel for the moment that Tom Durkin brought to big-event racing. Tom is in a class by himself and will be missed by many.

Kentucky Derby Top Three

Why fiddle with ten or twelve horses when you can narrow down the winner of the Kentucky Derby to three horses. With so many flops this year and with a uninspiring decline in competition it was easier to separate the cream from the milk. Racing was just awful all winter in New York -it usually is- below par in Arkansas and putrid in former derby breeding ground California. Louisiana had a good meet at the Fairgrounds. The only strong racing in the country was the grand restoration that occurred at the Gulfstream meet. They had a banner meet there this year and produced two of our three contenders with all three spending time in South Florida.

3 - Mucho Macho Man - This guy has nice rating speed and has been training up a storm. Horse is game and is trained by real people and not a corporate drug store. Last work was 7 furlongs in 123 and change. There is something to root for here- trainer Kathy Ritvo is a heart transplant recipient and owners have faith in God. When jockey Eibar Coa was injured days before Mucho Macho Man's race in the Risen Star Stakes

"When they flew back to Florida, Dean went immediately to the hospital, where he presented Coa with a check for $18,000, matching the winning cut for the jockey of record in the Risen Star.

"Had Eibar been there, he could have ridden him to victory, too," Dean said. "We paid him as if he'd been on the horse.""

These are people I can root for and and I hope God has a nice surprise planned for them the first Saturday in May.

2 - Soldat - This is a big rangy colt that has proven that he can run on grass, dirt and slop. Horses that can run on any surface are just flat out talented. He was able to take down the Holy Bull which was a strong prep race at Gulfstream. His team of connections is strong with Kiaran McLaughlin calling the shots and Alan Garcia handling the reins. Distance should be no issue and if you can excuse his last race as a training lesson there is value here as well.


1- Dialed in - This guy is the likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby and it is deserved. Initially I thought we were dealing with Ice Box part two here but since then I have done an about face on this colt. He is a strong closer, has worked out his lead changing issues and is being handled by two masters in Zito and Leparoux. The trainer provides the derby mastery and the Leparoux knows Churchill better than anyone - even Borel. Dialed In emerges as the king out of the tough Gulfstream Park meet. This is like a boxer emerging out of Philly or a handball player that is tops in Coney Island. This guy is going to be closing in the derby and will be very hard to keep im out of the frame. The one to fear at a short price.

Awesome Derby Pick ~Play Of The Day

So much hyperbole surrounds the Kentucky Derby. For an anachronism of a sport that gets almost no attention, this one race garners more attention than every other race combined. This race will be over-thought by men, women, children and computers. Here are my thoughts on the race.

My pick is Awesome Act. This is a horse who has an impressive late kick and his breeding, his training and running style should be well suited to today's race. My existential handicapping tells me that this is a horse that can overcome adversity; the Derby is all about triumph over adversity.

When Awesome Act first arrived in New York his journey was an odyssey. A massive blizzard delayed his arrived for 3 days and instead of a swift journey her was grounded at a British airport for the days. While he did not have to sleep on a cot like the travelers recently grounded by the Iceland ash emergency he certainly faced situational adversity. He was then stuck in American quarantine and not able to work preceding the Gotham. On top of his travel inconveniences the Gotham was a race where Awesome Act was first time dirt. Horses that are first time dirt emerging from travel hardships are usually big failures, think Aidan O'Brien imports on B.C. day. Those O'Brien horse likely fly privately. Not only did Awesome Act win, he won in smashing style. His win was a bold statement for those paying attention. When the adversity a twenty horse field being spooked by a rabid 150K crowd materializes other horses will likely use their mind, Awesome Act should be as cool as a glacier.

The other edge that Awesome Act holds is that he should love the distance. He has a bottom of English style distance training that is completely unique to the field. This bottom of stamina will be very handy running ten furlongs for the first time. With twenty horses in the race the pace figures to be taxing for the front runners. A perfect set up for a late running closer with a strong base of stamina is likely. This race should set up perfectly for Awesome Act. The explosive turn of foot he displayed in the Gotham could be the trump card in the Derby. Could he delight us like Awesome Mich? We hope so. Awesome Act is the play of the day.

Kentucky Derby Win #16 Awesome Act

Stats

stats
5 1-0-1
strike rate 20%
cumulative return $39.80
$2 ROI $7.96
average winner $39.80

Derby Future Pool Two Rundown

Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 2

Later today Kentucky Derby future pool two kicks off. There are a few horses I am interested in and a few that look like gross underlays. This wager can be fun because you sit on it for weeks and weeks. Like a child expecting a Christmas gift, the joy is in the anticipation. With this wager you can maximize your anticipation and perhaps make a nice score.

50-1 ML on Odysseus in pool two is a must play. This horse was so impressive last out; this is a work in progress that is exceeding expectations. His connections are top notch and quickly groomed Bernardini from Florida nobody to classic glory in 2006. If Odysseus wins the Tampa Bay derby by five lengths he will be one of the favorites on Kentucky Derby day. Now is the time to invest in this horse while he still has a bit of anonymity. There is still time to get ahead of the curve on this colt.

Lookin At Lucky was very impressive last year; duly he was awarded the eclipse for champion two year old colt. If he somehow sneaks up to 8-1 he could warrant a play. If anybody knows how to win the Derby it is Baffert; my gut tells me that Lucky is going to win both the Rebel and the Arkansas derby. With those two wins on his PP's he should be 8-5 on derby day. Getting around 8-1 on him would be sinful. The ever fickle public may back off him due to his inactivity and the looming can he win on dirt question.

6-1 on Eskendereya is a terrible price. Not only did this colt go wire to wire on the "gimicky" Gulfstream speed bias but there are so many speed horses in this years potential field that could spoil his front running gambit. Anyone betting this horse at 6-1 is accepting terrible value. They are on the short end of the public's opinion curve. It may be punter cliche but if you missed the wedding don't show up for the funeral.

All other three year old colts at 7-2 may not be the worst bet. It is effectively a bet on a few hundred contenders that may be show improvement in the next two months. You will likely get the winner of the Gotham. Then there is the up and coming colt like Drosselmeyer; this is a colt that can surely get the distance and hails from top connections. You will also get a horse like Miner's Reserve who will surely be pointed to the derby for the Zito barn. There is a real buzz about Miner's Reserve from Florida. The all other three year olds is a good package deal.
---------------------------- --- -- ---------- ml/day 1 odds

1	Aikenite	Todd Pletcher	50	48
2	American Lion	Eoin Harty	30	60
3	Buddy's Saint	Bruce Levine	12	12
4	Caracortado	Michael Machowsky	12	27
5	Connemara	Todd Pletcher	20	32
6	Conveyance	Bob Baffert	12	26
7	D' Funnybone	Richard Dutrow, Jr.	20	24
8	Dave in Dixie	John Sadler	30	27
9	Discreetly Mine	Todd Pletcher	30	32
10	Dublin	D. Lukas	15	8
11	Eskendereya	Todd Pletcher	6	7
12	Jackson Bend	Nicholas Zito	20	44
13	Lookin At Lucky	Bob Baffert	6	6
14	Nextdoorneighbor	Michael Machowsky	30	99
15	Noble's Promise	Kenneth McPeek	30	24
16	Odysseus	Thomas Albertrani	50	27
17	Radiohead (GB)	Richard Dutrow, Jr.	20	31
18	Rule	Todd Pletcher	20	19
19	Setsuko	Richard Mandella	50	91
20	Sidney's Candy	John Sadler	20	42
21	Super Saver	Todd Pletcher	20	30
22	Tempted to Tapit	Steve Klesaris	50	48
23	Vale of York (IRE)	Saeed bin Suroor	30	26
24	All Other Three Ye		7/2	7/2

Kentucky Derby Senseless

Yet another article published bashing the pants off of horse racing. This has to be at least the sixth one this week. These articles are rolling off the the assembly like Ford model T's. This one is not only a good example of the "bash horse racing because it is too hard for us to understand formula" but it adds in elements of the dumbing down of America too. Instead of a bunch a factory workers rolling the model T's off the assembly line we have a group of indoctrinated lemmings who all share an identical opinion in lockstep with each other. With an identical quality and increasing quantity the articles are rolling off the assembly line like the Ford Edsel .


Shouldn't education provide these people with intellectual curiosity? A sense of where we are from, where are we at and where we are going? The author of this piece seems like she has not been directed to reflect on any of those three questions. Instead of curiosity she exhibits signs of single minded agenda conditioning and posturing for the sake of easy attention. These people have all been indoctrinated to believe that same things and play the same cards over and over. Here the author stretches to play the race card, "Speaking of uncomfortable traditions, the Kentucky Derby broadcast made the event seem like a giant social event for middle-aged white people." Empty point there from the author but she assumes if white people like it, it must be bad and an easy lay-up for bash points.


What these articles have in common are complete historical ignorance, a sanctimonious, self-righteous stance against animal cruelty and a total obliviousness to the love, care and passion for the horses. These articles have a very important role in the horse racing community, they should bring us together to motivate ourselves to educate the lemmings on the greatest game in the world. We have to make it as hard as possible for their ignorance and their ability to pat themselves on the back to continue.

some more examples recently;


breakdown story

disaster newsreel

terror of racing

prevalence of abuse in racing

Banning Of Racing

horseracing will breakdown

derby is racist and sexist

Not Bred To Call Birdstone

Tom Durkin is feeling the heat for his derby call and rightfully so. Durkin has been brilliant for over two decades but this Derby performance was a departure from his sterling form. He was shown up by recent import Mark Johnson who had a smoother derby call for the Churchill simulcast and seemed composed and better prepared. The last time I remember Durkin blowing a call like this was when Mine That Bird's daddy won the 2004 Travers and Durkin called it the Belmont Stakes.

While Durkin made several errors during the derby the one everyone will remember is how he completely missed the winner until he was 6 clear and almost under the wire. It reminded everyone of 2006 BC Juvenile when Denmen completely Street Sense, only calling him when he was clear and had the race in-hand. The call was so bad that Denman went back to the studio and revised the call for future replays.

In comparison Mark Johnson didn't do a great job with Mine That Bird's big move but he did better than Durkin picking him up about the time he was shoulder to shoulder with the tiring Join In The Dance. A great caller should have picked the Bird up at the 3/8ths pole as he inhaled colt after colt like a four legged pac-man. Durkin's meticulous preparation alluded him in at Louisville on Saturday, this performance was a disappointment. The racing public has been spoiled by Durkin's superior presentation, his fastidious preparation and his flair for the dramatic, rising to the occasion time after time to match the performance of the equine competitors. For comparison check the multiple calls available on youtube for the of the 2005 derby or 2006 Preakness. Multiple calls for these races are available and Durkin's are clearly superior in smoothness, control and situational awareness. Durkin failed in all three regards on Saturday.

British newcomer Mark Johnson may have just unpacked his bags last week but he may be the number two caller in the country and pressing for number one. His presentation was excellent this weekend. Could Johnson's presence be the reason that Durkin was rattled? Johnson is as well prepared as anyone I have ever heard and provides a tremendous amount of supplemental information that enhances the racing presentation for the fans and handicappers. This guy combines talent with hard work which is a winning exacta. Mark Johnson cares and it radiates in his performance. Other racecallers should take notes. The recent import gave frequent mention of scratches, provided insightful commentary when horses were fractious in the post parade and his calls were original plus filled with color.

As bad as Durkin's derby call was, I feel his Oaks call the day before was classic Durkin and he outgamed Johnson on that call. Vividly illustrating brilliant performances has always been Durkin's forte and he did not disappoint on Friday, which assures us Durkin fans that Saturday's performance was an anomaly. While Johnson's call was quite good for the Kentucky Oaks it was not quite as vivid as Durkin's call as Johnson used cruising one too many times and seemed to stumble ever so slightly trying to locate the correct adjective to describe Rachel Alexandra's extraordinary tour de force .

Looking forward to the next stop on the Triple Crown I am betting on a better Durkin performance. The performance aberration in the derby must be bothering Durkin and he will be motivated to prepare for the Preakness action. We can compare Durkin to the resident Pimlico caller Rodman who is very good and sometimes excellent. Maybe Durkin's difficulty at this years derby traces back to the 2004 Belmont Stakes. That was a disappointing race for so many people. The disappointment was clearly inflected in Durkin's call when Mine That Bird's sire Bridstone overhauled the beloved Smarty Jones. These Birdstone racecalling flubs are becoming a pattern. Then there was the blunder of Durkin calling Birdstone the winner of the Belmont Stakes. How could Birdstone win the Belmont when it was August at Saratoga and the race was called the Travers. Mine That Bird may be bred to race in the mud but Durkin is not bred to call Birdstone and his get.

Forgotten But Lovable

Does any one else see the irony in the 137 million man hours wasted handicapping the derby? With all that work on the books you will be hard-pressed to find a capper or fan who touted the winner before the Derby. The only people who cashed tickets in this race are either members of the Audubon Society, were born on August 8th 1988 or have experience working in the mining industry. Even the trainer wasn't confident. "To be honest, I didn't have any real feeling that I could win the Derby," trainer Chip Woolley said.


As one of those that spent hours analyzing the race and watching replays it is another lesson in horse racing hard knocks being nowhere near this result. Rather than besmirch Mine That Bird as a fluke or belittle his modest connections I am embracing the pain of this loss. I dismissed the winner so fast that I never bothered to watch his race replays or inquire a bit closer. This is not good capping. However I think if I looked harder and longer I would have tossed faster and harder. Running forth in the ungraded Sunland Derby at 13-1 makes for an easy toss. There is surely a valuable lesson to be gleaned from this race.


With this unlikely horse winning the Kentucky derby there will be a small backlash building. Some of the on-line chatter is suggesting that Mine That Bird was really ringer. Instead of Mine That Bird in the gate it was really Curlin running under Mine That Bird's name. Then there is the predicable drug innuendo. You can count on Andy Beyer to write an anti-Mine That Bird article as Mine That Bird had the lowest Beyer figures coming into the race and Beyer always protects his figures when there is a result like this. Mine That Bird's connections are going to have to develop a thick skin as soon as the derby celebration is over. In addition to the Beyer figs Mine Bird also had the worst dosage figure at 5.4 in the race as well.



















Power Cap's Sister-In Law Was One Of The Few Who Scored
(Her Birthday is August 8th)


While the result was improbable on paper I have to give Calvin Borel a ton of credit. This jockey rode a brilliant race, a performance for the ages. For someone that has had so much success the last few years it a wonderful reflection on Borel's character that he is still such a likable and humble athlete. It gave me chills when he thanked his mama and papa in heaven after the race and how he wished they could see him now. I almost wanted to cry for him. This stunning victory was just the icing on the cake after Borel won the Kentucky Oaks race the day before on Rachel Alexandra who turned in one of the most brilliant performances in American racing this decade.



The story of the horse being driven from New Mexico in the back of a pick-up truck was endearing as well. There is so much appeal when David sticks it to Goliath and this David just finished off 18 Goliath's. The whole trainer angle might be the biggest surprise as this horse ran dead last in the BC Juvenile under the care of Dick Mandella. Mandella is considered one of the hardest trainers to move a horse up from. Now Chip Wolley who has won only one race all year, which was a sprint maiden race at Sunland has moved a horse from dead last to first in the biggest race of the year. This is like a the fry guy from your local Burger King taking on and destroying Bobby Flay in one of those Iron Chef throw downs. Before that maiden race Chip Wolley won a 5K claimer in December. Mine That Bird looked like he was over his head today but he ran a tremendous race and put one over on everyone. If he can pull off the Preakness shocker the good news is that Mine That Bird's daddy won the Belmont a few years ago. I will be rooting for them to go all the way. It will make for a fun Belmont hoping for the impossible.

Derby Picks

The pools I am going to play are pick 3 leading up to the derby, the daily double, the win pool and exactas.

My key derby horses will be I Want Revenge. I like the stalking speed to stay close and the conventional training up to the race. Nothing flashy but he seems to be coming up to the race well. He can press or close so it gives the kid options.

With 20 horses the are 380 possible exacta combinations so the payout should be fair. Another horse I will be using prominently is Freisan Fire. I love the AP Indy colts especially on wet track. Larry Jones is one of the best of the best so you have to repect his training methods. This colt has the right running style for this race and should be prominent throughout.

Other horses I am going to use in a less prominent way are Desert Party, Chocolatte Candy and Papa Clem. These horses have a shot to win and will be on the exacta tickets and some of the wider spreads in the daily double and pick 3.

Oaks/Derby Will Pays

These are hard to find.

FOR $1 Rachel Alexandra-

1 WEST SIDE BERNIE $74.50
2 MUSKET MAN $42.90
3 MR. HOT STUFF $71.20
4 ADVICE $97.20
5 HOLD ME BACK $24.50
6 FRIESAN FIRE $7.10
7 PAPA CLEM $30.70
8 MINE THAT BIRD $154.60
9 JOIN IN THE DANCE $153.50
10 REGAL RANSOM $32.90
11 CHOCOLATE CANDY $25.50
12 GENERAL QUARTERS $37.70
13 I WANT REVENGE $6.10
14 ATOMIC RAIN $172.20
15 DUNKIRK $10.10
16 PIONEEROF THE NILE $11.50
17 SUMMER BIRD $81.90
18 NOWHERE TO HIDE $167.40
19 DESERT PARTY $25.30
20 FLYING PRIVATE $155.20

Quality Road Could Be Withdrawn

With the news surfacing that Quality Road has another quarter crack his status for the Derby has to be downgraded to doubtful or maybe questionable. Surely James Jerkens will do the right thing by the horse, if Quality Road is not 100% he should stay in New York and point to a summer campaign. With Quality Road out the pace is going to be even more tepid. This really moves up a few horses who figure to benefit from a moderate pace. Papa Clem stands to benefit along with Regal Ransom and I Want Revenge.

The Pioneer Of The Nile Question

Will Pioneer Of The Nile transfer is excellent form to dirt? This is a big question that every handicapper betting on the derby must consider. According to the latest article in the DRF Pioneer Of The Nile's first workout was first-rate. He handled the track and glided over the surface and was tabbed going six furlongs in 113 and 2/5ths. Recent Hall Of Fame inductee Baffert was convinced that making the switch from synthetics to dirt would not be an issue for Pioneer of the Nile. Another part of the equation is the dirt kickback during a race. This is something that Pioneer Of The Nile has yet to experience. We have ten days to commit to either answer of this question or the prudent move may be to hedge and play both sides. I'm still pondering.

Are Synthetic Surfaces Weeding Out The Derby Speed?

Many times the Kentucky Derby has been what I call a "chaos race". Start with a large field then add in an abundance of speed horses and need the lead colts with no hope whatsoever and you have something hot and sultry breaking out on the lead. These heated speed duels on the lead neutralize the quality speed horses, and set the race up for deep closers. Monarchos is a great example and well as Giacomo in 2005. This year is setting up to be a walk in the park on the lead. Looking at the top 20 graded earning list it seems the preponderance of synthetic prep races have stopped the cheap speed horses before they crossed the velvet ropes into the entry box. Almost every horse to emerge from the Kentucky or California preps are devoid of speed. Those lucky enough to prep and possess speed have a marked advantage over their synthetic raced competition.

We can bemoan the effect of synthetic surfaces on racing or we can accept it and profit from it. Smart money chooses to accept the present. In past years California and Keeneland produced very fast colts for the derby, this is not the case this year. There is no Sinister Minister or Brancusi to overheat a speed duel. This year the California preps have yielded a graduating class permeated by closers or horses with a turf pedigree.


Pioneer Of The Nile, the leading candidate from California was judged a turf horse by his former conditioner Bill Mott. Mott started this colt on the turf and he had a successful two year old campaign over the weeds. For his three year old campaign he was sent to Baffert specifically to take advantage of the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. Now in the biggest race of the year the Empire Maker colt has to cede all advantage and try something that he was deemed not to be his forte. While he and the dozen or so like him are spinning their wheels on the foreign surface they are going to have to deal with dirt kickback. Add in a tactical disadvantage we have a stacked deck against the synthetic derby prep graduates.

The Derby may have produced a "who's who" of Chefs De Race but this years Kentucky based preps (Lanes End, Bluegrass, Lex) have a produced a "who the heck is that" list of Derby candidates. These races over the polytrack at Turfway and Keeneland have produced confounding longshot victories and every colt considered for the Derby out of these races is devoid of speed. The perfect scenario for a wire to wire victory in the Kentucky derby is building.

The horses that stand to benefit are Quality Road, Papa Clem, Friesian Fire and I Want Revenge. This becomes a case of the rich get richer as all four have class and speed. Now they have a tactical advantage as well. All four horses have shown speed along with a rating gear which should further ice any possible speed duel. The only need the lead type even being considered is Todd Pletcher's Join In The Dance.

Quality Road who figures to be the speed of the speed may just benefit the most from the likely pace scenario. Quality Road was very impressive winning the Fountain Of Youth. In the FOY Quality Road outlasted three other quality speed sprinters and drew off to win for fun. On paper the FOY was a speed chaos race. Then Quality Road stretched out and turned back the highly touted and heavily bet Dunkirk in the Florida Derby after being passed at the top of the lane, showing class and gameness. All indicaters except that quarter crack are pointing to Quality Road.

Dunkirk Has A Stall In The Derby

The lightly raced but heavily priced Dunkirk will have a stall in the derby if he is fit and able. With three horses ahead of him on the active graded stakes earnings list off the derby trail (Stardom Bound, Big Drama, Capt Candy Man Can) he sits at number 18 on the list(top 20 make it). The European win in your win entrant Mafaaz performed poorly at Keeneland so the Churchill European marketing attempt will not yield a starter this year. Square Eddie will start this week in the Lexington off a three month injury layoff and may be rushed into the derby. If Eddie defects that opens even more cushion to ensure that Dunkirk to get in. For procrastinators and the desperate there are two more opportunities for graded stakes earnings post Lexington; at Aqueduct there is The Withers GIII and the recently upgraded Derby Trial GIII at Churchill. The Withers will not produce a Derby entrant while the Derby Trial has produced a Derby entry every few years.

Kentucky Derby Futures Round-Up

With less than four weeks to the Kentucky Derby bettors are solidifying opinions. It is becoming more and more clear that I Want Revenge is going to be the clear favorite as we move closer to the race. As more people watch the Wood and listen to Durkin's hysterics I Want Revenge is going to start to build hype. The current Kentucky Derby betting has I Want Revenge listed at 7-2. With the second choice Quality Road not able to train due to a quarter crack it seems like I Want Revenge has opened up daylight on his competition. Quality Road is questionable just to be in the gate, 5-1 on him to win the 2009 Kentucky Derby is a sucker bet. The co-third choice is the lightly raced Dunkirk at 6-1 who was easily turned back by Quality Road. Dunkirk lacks seasoning and is another who is questionable to be in the gate due to a lack of earnings. With new defections showing up by the day Dunkirk does figure to sneak in the race. The other third choice is Friesen Fire who won the Louisiana Derby by a pole, but that was on slop which typically produces disingenuous win margins. Freisen Fire's seven week gap in races is bewildering to me so 6-1 does not interest me at all. The fifth choice at 7-1 is Pioneer Of The Nile who is a turf horse. Without synthetic surfaces this horses would not even be on this list. 7-1 on the Zayat stable runner is another sucker bet. Out of all the short price type horses I Want Revenge Stands Tall, 7-2 is not a bad proposition and you will surely be looking at a shorter price on derby day.

At the other end of the odds spectrum an intriguing longshot is Papa Clem. This colt was stuck out in Wally Wubber World California where his first four races were on all-weather surfaces. He ran very gamely in California and displayed a run style that may translate better to a dirt surface. Papa Clem took his shot on dirt in the sloppy Louisiana Derby and ran okay first time while on a completely foreign surface. He will run in the Arkansas Derby and I suspect he will give a good account of himself there. If you want to grab some value the current 40-1 on Papa Clem is appetizing. His price may drop dramatically after Saturday if he wins or places like I suspect at Oaklawn.

Don't Make It Easier For Horses Like Dunkirk To Stay In The Barn

With only three starts on his record there are legions of people arguing that Churchill should do something to ensure horses like Dunkirk can have access to the Kentucky Derby starting gate. These people are flat out wrong, one hit wonders like Dunkirk should be excluded from the Derby if they do not have the requisite graded earnings, the conditioning or the record of success. Racing needs horses to race, not stay in the barn.

Dunkirk and his possible exclusion from the derby is often linked to Mafaaz. Mafaaz won the Kempton challenge and while he looks overmatched in the derby some argue and he will exclude a live contender. Another frequent complaint is the pair of Godolphin horses who will likely enter the Kentucky derby who won their owners money in Dubai. This international presence in America's most famous race is great for the game. Horses like Mafaaz, Desert Party and Regal Ransom provide intrigue and provide access to overseas growth markets. Horses like Dunkirk with their lack of races and injury prone nature are a cancer on the game.


One of the chief things that plagues racing is horses like Dunkirk. We have graded stakes horses that do not race, they stay in the barn and only come out for an afternoon run once in a while when they are in absolutely pristine form. This is terrible for the game and robs the game of intrigue and the ability to follow horses. Those in charge should do nothing to accommodate horses that face the consequences of a lack of racing. Typically a horse can stay in the barn with complete impunity. The Kentucky Derby is one the rare situations where a horse like Dunkirk's connections are punished for the lack of racing, let the punishment stand if it holds.

Look at horses like Ghostzapper from 2004 and his brilliant four race campaign. Ghostzapper did nothing in the afternoon from September 2003 to July 2004 and then raced every 6 weeks or so in short fields up until his breeders cup classic win at Lone Star. While he may of been brilliant in those four races it was not exactly conducive to building a sports fan base. Four race campaigns disengage the public from big time stakes races and should be discouraged whenever possible. The graded stakes earning list for the derby is one of those few instances.


Who can forget Easy Goer's 1989 three year old campaign? 11 races, 3 wins over older routers in a grade I and a total of 8 graded wins. Despite his extraordinary season Easy Goer lost the BC classic to a horse that was laid up for most of the summer while Easy Goer won Grade I after Grade I. Ever since that race of decade in the 89' BC classic horses have been managed more judiciously, races leading up to the breeders cup have been shortened and horses have followed the example of Sunday Silence taking the summer off rather than the complete campaign of Easy Goer. While it may be good for the connections to pick conservative spots like this, it is terrible for the game.

While the Kempton challenge could be considered a gimmick, it is an attempt to build interest in the Kentucky Derby. There is a huge untapped international market and the presence of this one horse could do wonders for increasing the interest in the derby and American racing in general. People in London bookie shops will have a greater interest in the Kentucky Derby and maybe even American casual fans will be intrigued by a foreign dark horse. The masses need big and easy story lines to follow, something that they can grab and run with. Will Mafaaz keep out Dunkirk? I don't think he will but if he does it will send the message that your big horses need to race.

A horse like Dunkirk if he was to succeed in the derby would set a precedent where many trainers would try to go into the triple crown off of one prep race. Look at the success of the ill fated Barbaro. At the time going into the derby on five weeks rest was taboo, but Barbaro's success has emboldened trainers like Larry Jones to take Friesian Fire off a 7 week rest into the derby this year. A derby success by Dunkirk would lead to a copy-cat horses in later years that race with even less bottom conditioning. What happens to horses with a lack of a bottom? They get injured and they are whisked away as soon as we begin to admire them.


The current system of graded stakes earnings favors horses that have been racing and earning over a period of time. This is a solid system. It is not a perfect system and surely anomalies like the $1 million Delta Jackpot Skew the graded earnings list but at least horses that race are favored and not one hit wonders.