With less than four weeks to the Kentucky Derby bettors are solidifying opinions. It is becoming more and more clear that I Want Revenge is going to be the clear favorite as we move closer to the race. As more people watch the Wood and listen to Durkin's hysterics I Want Revenge is going to start to build hype. The current Kentucky Derby betting has I Want Revenge listed at 7-2. With the second choice Quality Road not able to train due to a quarter crack it seems like I Want Revenge has opened up daylight on his competition. Quality Road is questionable just to be in the gate, 5-1 on him to win the 2009 Kentucky Derby is a sucker bet. The co-third choice is the lightly raced Dunkirk at 6-1 who was easily turned back by Quality Road. Dunkirk lacks seasoning and is another who is questionable to be in the gate due to a lack of earnings. With new defections showing up by the day Dunkirk does figure to sneak in the race. The other third choice is Friesen Fire who won the Louisiana Derby by a pole, but that was on slop which typically produces disingenuous win margins. Freisen Fire's seven week gap in races is bewildering to me so 6-1 does not interest me at all. The fifth choice at 7-1 is Pioneer Of The Nile who is a turf horse. Without synthetic surfaces this horses would not even be on this list. 7-1 on the Zayat stable runner is another sucker bet. Out of all the short price type horses I Want Revenge Stands Tall, 7-2 is not a bad proposition and you will surely be looking at a shorter price on derby day.
At the other end of the odds spectrum an intriguing longshot is Papa Clem. This colt was stuck out in Wally Wubber World California where his first four races were on all-weather surfaces. He ran very gamely in California and displayed a run style that may translate better to a dirt surface. Papa Clem took his shot on dirt in the sloppy Louisiana Derby and ran okay first time while on a completely foreign surface. He will run in the Arkansas Derby and I suspect he will give a good account of himself there. If you want to grab some value the current 40-1 on Papa Clem is appetizing. His price may drop dramatically after Saturday if he wins or places like I suspect at Oaklawn.
Power cap- existential handicapping
Showing posts with label bodog. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bodog. Show all posts
08 April 2009
27 August 2008
Breeder's Cup Advance Look
Two months out from the Breeders Cup and the storyline is taking shape. With the switch to the new Pro-Ride surface Europeans will be lured into races traditionally dominated by the Americans like the Classic or Distaff(Ladies Classic). For a great run down of all the contenders check out this sharp resource that provides tremendous information on Breeders Cup Betting. Bodog has a tremendous amount of information on all of the Breeders Cup contenders and is the place where savvy handicappers make their plays.
Classic
This year is wide open if defending champ Curlin does not enter. IEAH stable has many legit chances throughout the Breeder's Cup card, however the likely favorite for the race Big Brown is a complete and total toss. This will be a great race to find some value with a favorite that only has a small chance of winning.
Top Competitors
Go Between- Confirmed synthetic lover, his win in the Pacific Classic as the favorite validated his synthetic surface form.
Henrythenavigator- undefeated in Europe this year and has won races gamely. Check out his last win in the Sussex stakes. Giants Causeway who scored in the Arc and just missed in the 2000 classic won the Sussex stakes for the Ballydoyle yard.
Colonel John- Confirmed distance ability and gameness in Travers score. Already is a confirmed synthetic lover as the facile winner of the Santa Anita derby.
Breeders Cup Turf
Year after year this race is dominated by European shippers. This year the local west coast turf contingent is very weak. The leading local horse Spring House does not class up at all. All of the top contenders ship in from Europe.
Archipenko- Ran well in the Arlington Million in defeat. Has the right run style for the ultra firm, ultra tight Santa Anita course. A force if he ships over.
Duke Of Marmalade-This guy has developed into a force for the Ballydoyle Yard. The Duke is undefeated this year. He confirmed his top form at 12 furlongs taking the King George at Ascot by an astounding 9 lengths. He recently added the Group I Juddmonte International to his tally, his fifth Group I score of the year. Needs to hold top form for two more months. The Arc may take the starch out of him. Follow him closely.
Soldier Of Fortune-O'Briens other horse for the turf will be live if he makes it in.
Breeder's Cup Mile
Kip Deville- has been sensational in his two starts and has conformed form at Santa Anita taking the Kilroe mile there in 2007. This Oklahoma bred dominates this usually wide open race.
Whatsthescript- Local horse won the Del Mar mile the other day. Usually needs pace to make his run and there is typically great pace in the Breeder's Cup Mile. Legit contender with a hometown advantage.
Out Of Control- Frankel's Stud TNT import is solid at a mile on the turf. This one will beat Big Brown in the Monmouth Stakes on 13SEP. You heard it here first. He has won in California. p[']
TVG Sprint
Benny The Bull has been phenomenal this year and his retirement leaves a gapping void in the division. This promises to be a wide open race. The other power horse in the division Midnight Lute will stay away from the rubber and jelly cable for synthetic hater Baffert. I would lean towards the local California horses in this race.
In Summation- loves synthetic and may be a price after a few tough defeats. Top pick at a price.
Rebellion- Close second in Pat O'Brien at Del Mar. His deep closing style may work well as the sprint sometimes completely falls apart, especially on synthetic.
Lucky Island- East coast division leader will be the favorite in the Forego on Saturday at Saratoga. Won the Tom Fool over a suspect field. He can rate and is from a top barn. The Pro-Ride surface would be his first race over synthetic.
Classic
This year is wide open if defending champ Curlin does not enter. IEAH stable has many legit chances throughout the Breeder's Cup card, however the likely favorite for the race Big Brown is a complete and total toss. This will be a great race to find some value with a favorite that only has a small chance of winning.
Top Competitors
Go Between- Confirmed synthetic lover, his win in the Pacific Classic as the favorite validated his synthetic surface form.
Henrythenavigator- undefeated in Europe this year and has won races gamely. Check out his last win in the Sussex stakes. Giants Causeway who scored in the Arc and just missed in the 2000 classic won the Sussex stakes for the Ballydoyle yard.
Colonel John- Confirmed distance ability and gameness in Travers score. Already is a confirmed synthetic lover as the facile winner of the Santa Anita derby.
Breeders Cup Turf
Year after year this race is dominated by European shippers. This year the local west coast turf contingent is very weak. The leading local horse Spring House does not class up at all. All of the top contenders ship in from Europe.
Archipenko- Ran well in the Arlington Million in defeat. Has the right run style for the ultra firm, ultra tight Santa Anita course. A force if he ships over.
Duke Of Marmalade-This guy has developed into a force for the Ballydoyle Yard. The Duke is undefeated this year. He confirmed his top form at 12 furlongs taking the King George at Ascot by an astounding 9 lengths. He recently added the Group I Juddmonte International to his tally, his fifth Group I score of the year. Needs to hold top form for two more months. The Arc may take the starch out of him. Follow him closely.
Soldier Of Fortune-O'Briens other horse for the turf will be live if he makes it in.
Breeder's Cup Mile
Kip Deville- has been sensational in his two starts and has conformed form at Santa Anita taking the Kilroe mile there in 2007. This Oklahoma bred dominates this usually wide open race.
Whatsthescript- Local horse won the Del Mar mile the other day. Usually needs pace to make his run and there is typically great pace in the Breeder's Cup Mile. Legit contender with a hometown advantage.
Out Of Control- Frankel's Stud TNT import is solid at a mile on the turf. This one will beat Big Brown in the Monmouth Stakes on 13SEP. You heard it here first. He has won in California. p[']
TVG Sprint
Benny The Bull has been phenomenal this year and his retirement leaves a gapping void in the division. This promises to be a wide open race. The other power horse in the division Midnight Lute will stay away from the rubber and jelly cable for synthetic hater Baffert. I would lean towards the local California horses in this race.
In Summation- loves synthetic and may be a price after a few tough defeats. Top pick at a price.
Rebellion- Close second in Pat O'Brien at Del Mar. His deep closing style may work well as the sprint sometimes completely falls apart, especially on synthetic.
Lucky Island- East coast division leader will be the favorite in the Forego on Saturday at Saratoga. Won the Tom Fool over a suspect field. He can rate and is from a top barn. The Pro-Ride surface would be his first race over synthetic.
20 June 2008
Advanced Deposit Wagering Fiasco
Betting on ponies in 2008 reminds me of all the three card monte games that were played in the streets before the quality of life assault eliminated these games from street corners. Those Monte guys and their shills had a uncanny knack of hiding that lady and taking the marks money. They were fun games to watch. Today's horse racing market is not that far removed from the three card Monte games from 20 years ago. It must be funny for someone out there to watch horseplayers jumping through hoops to watch races and get a bet down. However it is not so funny if you are the mark jumping through the hoops.
Just like the Monte game the mark is always one step behind. You look under one hand and expect to be able to bet Churchill on the Twinspires website but the lady is not there. You go to the NYRA website to watch replays and the NY state government restricts NYRA from showing video and replays, the lady is not there either. This is like Ikea not being able to display furniture in it's big box superstore. You have to go to some to other store (calracing) to see the Ikea goods. You live in Texas and you can bet with a ADW, you can see a lady, but you can not bet on Texas races if you live in Texas. It is like being married and not being allowed to be intimate with your spouse. It is getting increasingly more challenging to find the lady in the horse racing world. The various regulatory bodies and the tracks themselves have made mistake after mistake, taking the customer for granted, disrespecting the customer and making few attempts to attract new fans. Real discontent is growing in the horseplayer community and a backlash is underway.
What can a horseplayer that truly loves the game do? We enjoy the game, it provides a diversion from the mundane responsibilities of life but on the other hand who wants to be a three card Monte mark? In New York takeout is increasing in new and punitive ways. It is like the state has introduced a new automated milking mechanism to harvest our milk more effectively and without us noticing. The state really thinks that horseplayers in New York will stand for getting less than track prices on each and every race we bet on. The NYSRWB consistently rules not for the good of the game or those that fund the game but for special interests like OTB. Rather than governing with the benevolent philosophy of growing the game and attracting new players, the current horseplayer is consistently treated like a lactating heifer fit to be milked dry. It is time to take our teats and jump the fence.
Horseplayers are not trapped in a round pen. We have options and outs. We can close our accounts and leave the game we love behind, but why cut off our noses to spite our faces? Perhaps a better option is to move our money to people that want our business and will treat us and the billions we wager with respect. Off-shore wagering was something I once resisted but it is time to embrace this alternate way to enjoy the game. It is a way to liberate ourselves from a dysfunctional system while collecting beneficial rebates. It is all about helping those that help us.
horse race wagering
Just like the Monte game the mark is always one step behind. You look under one hand and expect to be able to bet Churchill on the Twinspires website but the lady is not there. You go to the NYRA website to watch replays and the NY state government restricts NYRA from showing video and replays, the lady is not there either. This is like Ikea not being able to display furniture in it's big box superstore. You have to go to some to other store (calracing) to see the Ikea goods. You live in Texas and you can bet with a ADW, you can see a lady, but you can not bet on Texas races if you live in Texas. It is like being married and not being allowed to be intimate with your spouse. It is getting increasingly more challenging to find the lady in the horse racing world. The various regulatory bodies and the tracks themselves have made mistake after mistake, taking the customer for granted, disrespecting the customer and making few attempts to attract new fans. Real discontent is growing in the horseplayer community and a backlash is underway.
What can a horseplayer that truly loves the game do? We enjoy the game, it provides a diversion from the mundane responsibilities of life but on the other hand who wants to be a three card Monte mark? In New York takeout is increasing in new and punitive ways. It is like the state has introduced a new automated milking mechanism to harvest our milk more effectively and without us noticing. The state really thinks that horseplayers in New York will stand for getting less than track prices on each and every race we bet on. The NYSRWB consistently rules not for the good of the game or those that fund the game but for special interests like OTB. Rather than governing with the benevolent philosophy of growing the game and attracting new players, the current horseplayer is consistently treated like a lactating heifer fit to be milked dry. It is time to take our teats and jump the fence.
Horseplayers are not trapped in a round pen. We have options and outs. We can close our accounts and leave the game we love behind, but why cut off our noses to spite our faces? Perhaps a better option is to move our money to people that want our business and will treat us and the billions we wager with respect. Off-shore wagering was something I once resisted but it is time to embrace this alternate way to enjoy the game. It is a way to liberate ourselves from a dysfunctional system while collecting beneficial rebates. It is all about helping those that help us.
horse race wagering
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