Bluegrass thoughts

The 2008 Bluegrass was the equivalent of a red herring when trying to solve a difficult equation. As fans and handicappers we already allocate many of our idle moments to answering difficult questions with hopeful answers grasping for favorable results. The Bluegrass complicated the problem, so be prepared to increase your allocation of idle moments trying to figure out the derby equation.


Pyro scorched the Fairgrounds dirt course but could not even spark his flint at Keeneland. Visionaire saw his way through the fog so clearly in the Gotham but was blinded by the challenge of a foreign surface in the Bluegrass. Cool Coal Man did not report for duty and left us to shovel for ourselves. Faithfully was are supposed to draw a line through the non-efforts of these horses. Can we just assume it was the surface that caused the form downturn or was it the horse? Can we be sure?

The spotlight was shared by two Pletcher horses who wielded good turf form. Can that turf form translate to derby success on the dirt? I do not think so, and we draw on the same faith that we used to draw a line through Pyro's race to draw a line through Monba's and Cowboy Cal's Bluegrass. If these two turf runners show up in Louisville make sure to toss them out of your wagers like chum over the rail of a flounder boat. Keep these two in mind for the Colonial Cup or Virginia Derby on the turf later this year but they are not Kentucky Derby material. Welcome to the Polytrack era.

12APR Weekend Derby Prep Action

This week brings us the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass. Both top shelf preps and I suspect the derby winner is in one of these two races.

The Arkansas Derby should be listed as a grade 1.51 this thing is as close to a grade I you can get without being a grade I. Curiously the race has a mutuel field, something we used to see at Aqueduct in 1988 when I first started looking at horse racing. Lets get down to the matter at hand, I suspect the favorite will be Z Fortune who drew an unfavorable outside post. his form has been tailing off. Anyone worth two cents has to go against him here. There seems to be five speed horses(can you name them?) which have all drawn inside so the pace will be honest here. This bodes well for one of the closers to power up late for the big share of the purse. The two I zeroed in are Liberty Bull and Blackberry road. Liberty Bull is shipping from New Mexico and I can not imagine that to be a pleasurable trip for an equine. Blackberry road finally finds a race with an honest pace and has been running at the Fairgrounds. Blackberry should benefit the most from a hot pace and is the pick to win it all.

The Bluegrass Stakes is a poly prep and last year was a real head scratcher. There was the glacial pace of 27 and 52 for the Jamie Sanders colt (Teuflesberg) who faded after setting the slowest pace this side of turtle racing. Then when they turned for home it sort of looked like a quarter horse race with anchors dragging behind the horses as there were nine horses in a line all plodding for the wire. There is little chance I can effectively handicap this race with these horrid images at the fore of my mind. The favorite will most certainly be Pyro who races first time poly, why take 3-5 on the first time poly donut horse? Medjool has raced exclusively on the all weather surfaces and and has proven that he runs well and can get the distance. Hofmans' is a conservative trainer and if he ships in he has a shot. Medjool is the pick at a profitable price.