How did this colt win the Preakness? It was an unbelievable win that goes against every convention and every canard of reason. Last out in the derby he faced a tepid pace and faded like he did not have the requisite courage to win a classic. Horses that fade in the lane usually fade in the lane every time. Now in the Preakness he faced a stiffer pace which makes fading in the lane an absolute near certainty.
The real mind bender was the looks of this colt before the race. Shackleford was a complete washed out mess. When he loaded I said to myself "no way he wins". Horses that lose their composure and wash that badly do not win races; especially route races. Not only did the disheveled Shackleford win a graded stakes route race- he won a classic after fading in a similar race just two weeks earlier. It is a result that boggles the mind in every way. He must of annexed the efforts of three races and concentrated the exertions into his Preakness run. If any horse was ever going to bounce next out- it is Shackleford.
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Showing posts with label 2011 Preakness. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 Preakness. Show all posts
25 May 2011
22 May 2011
Take a shot
Animal Kingdom proved himself to be a legit dirt runner yesterday and will be a major threat going forward. Shackleford will have something to prove moving forward off of this race, he was up on a pace that was much faster and more contested than the Derby and have enough in the reserves to hold off a horse that blew by him two weeks prior. Three-year-old colts can make dramatic improvements from race to race in the spring, but to do these two things in one race is a little hard to believe.
One race left to go to the annual spring series and for a third straight year the crown is not on the line. A bust for bartenders at Belmont and ticket holders looking flip their tickets. There could still be lemonade made out of these lemons though. Animal Kingdom can be the first Derby-Belmont winner since Thunder Gulch if the connections see fit to enter him. Shackleford can prove that his Preakness win was not bias aided (being off the rail in the stretch was key) if he can last the grueling 12 furlongs of the Belmont Stakes. While it doesn’t have the sizzle or flash of a Triple Crown bid, it certainly makes for an interesting rematch with the likely possibility of Nehro running as well.
Street Sense and Super Saver both opted to pass the Belmont after defeats in the Preakness, with the bigger picture of making the Travers in mind. It worked out well for Street Sense, not so much for Super Saver. There is a reason for skepticism that Animal Kingdom would run in the last leg based on this, the same goes for Shackleford. Graham Motion is a conservative trainer who likes more time in between races as well, so another big race in three weeks with other big purse possibilities looming further down the road also gives one a moment of pause on the likelihood of the Derby winner making the Belmont.
Shackleford was all out to hold off the onslaught of closers in his last three efforts, 1 ½ miles gives the runners that excel in the last half of a race more time to make their moves. There is also the issue of this horse laying it all on the line like he did in his last three starts, how much is left in the tank for another big effort?
The Belmont Stakes could very well decide the Eclipse Award this year if both of the classic winners decide to show up. It would certainly behoove the connections of these colts to enter in the third leg as well. If Animal Kingdom goes and Shackleford stays in the stable and Animal Kingdom wins, it makes it harder for Shackleford to make up ground in the division with restricted graded stakes opportunities drying up. The same example could be used in reverse as well. No one in the division has more than one grade one win to their name up to this point, every grade one counts twice as much now as far as division bragging rights. Passing up a chance to take one down is akin to folding a good hand in poker, why not take a shot?
One race left to go to the annual spring series and for a third straight year the crown is not on the line. A bust for bartenders at Belmont and ticket holders looking flip their tickets. There could still be lemonade made out of these lemons though. Animal Kingdom can be the first Derby-Belmont winner since Thunder Gulch if the connections see fit to enter him. Shackleford can prove that his Preakness win was not bias aided (being off the rail in the stretch was key) if he can last the grueling 12 furlongs of the Belmont Stakes. While it doesn’t have the sizzle or flash of a Triple Crown bid, it certainly makes for an interesting rematch with the likely possibility of Nehro running as well.
Street Sense and Super Saver both opted to pass the Belmont after defeats in the Preakness, with the bigger picture of making the Travers in mind. It worked out well for Street Sense, not so much for Super Saver. There is a reason for skepticism that Animal Kingdom would run in the last leg based on this, the same goes for Shackleford. Graham Motion is a conservative trainer who likes more time in between races as well, so another big race in three weeks with other big purse possibilities looming further down the road also gives one a moment of pause on the likelihood of the Derby winner making the Belmont.
Shackleford was all out to hold off the onslaught of closers in his last three efforts, 1 ½ miles gives the runners that excel in the last half of a race more time to make their moves. There is also the issue of this horse laying it all on the line like he did in his last three starts, how much is left in the tank for another big effort?
The Belmont Stakes could very well decide the Eclipse Award this year if both of the classic winners decide to show up. It would certainly behoove the connections of these colts to enter in the third leg as well. If Animal Kingdom goes and Shackleford stays in the stable and Animal Kingdom wins, it makes it harder for Shackleford to make up ground in the division with restricted graded stakes opportunities drying up. The same example could be used in reverse as well. No one in the division has more than one grade one win to their name up to this point, every grade one counts twice as much now as far as division bragging rights. Passing up a chance to take one down is akin to folding a good hand in poker, why not take a shot?
19 May 2011
Preakness field rundown
1. Astrology (15/1)
Looking back at the charts from the April race at Aqueduct, the inside was not a good spot on the track. Anyone that started on the rail that day did not win and Adios Charlie was wide and off the rail early on in the Jerome. Astrology finally got into gear when taken off the rail in that race as well. Astrology is the consistent sort and could merit a chance with a decent value in the win pool.
2. Norman Asbjornson (30/1)
Exits the Wood Memorial, which retained its title as the worst prep race to be in with two defections of key contenders before the Derby was run (Uncle Mo and Toby’s Corner). He did close into a slow pace in the Wood though.
3. King Congie (20/1)
Who?
4. Flashpoint (20/1)
Pretty light on the experience side and will likely be up on the pace with Shackleford.
5. Shackleford (12/1)
Got away with a comfortable lead and easy fractions in the Derby, he looked like he hit a wall in the last eighth of a mile in that race as well. More than likely he will see some competition up front in this one as well.
6. Sway Away (15/1)
Went zero for three in stakes company and made a premature move in the Arkansas Derby. Nehro was third out of that race and Archarcharch was well off the board. Mixed signs on that front and this one could better fitted for sprints base on his record.
7. Midnight Interlude (15/1)
Went from maiden to derby also ran in two races and could be up against it based on experience alone. Not to mention that the Southern California contingent has had a sour winter and spring as well.
8. Dance City (12/1)
Another speed here, this one is another Arkansas Derby new shooter.
9. Mucho Macho Man (6/1)
Always seems to run a decent to good race and showed a different dimension with his closing kick at Chuchill Downs. Would not be a shocker if this one got to the winner’s circle.
10. Dialed In (9/2)
His dramatic one run running style worked against him last out and is aiming for a big purse here. It will be hard to leave him out of the exotics and multis.
11. Animal Kingdom (2/1)
Could he win this race? Sure. Is he worth the bet at the fraction of the odds that you were getting two weeks ago? Probably not. By no means is this horse a lock for this leg, some of the new shooters have a chance and the returning Derby foes have a solid case for a rebound performance. This is a race that is worth shopping around for value in the win pool. As for the exotics and multis, it is probably a good idea to include this one for protection from a bust with juiced up odds in these pools.
12. Isn’t He Perfect (30/1)
If this is a question, then the answer is no.
13. Concealed Identity (30/1)
Probably will run like he is in witness protection here.
14. Mr. Commons (20/1)
If this horse wins, look for the stud fee on Artie Schiller to shoot up shortly after the results.
Looking back at the charts from the April race at Aqueduct, the inside was not a good spot on the track. Anyone that started on the rail that day did not win and Adios Charlie was wide and off the rail early on in the Jerome. Astrology finally got into gear when taken off the rail in that race as well. Astrology is the consistent sort and could merit a chance with a decent value in the win pool.
2. Norman Asbjornson (30/1)
Exits the Wood Memorial, which retained its title as the worst prep race to be in with two defections of key contenders before the Derby was run (Uncle Mo and Toby’s Corner). He did close into a slow pace in the Wood though.
3. King Congie (20/1)
Who?
4. Flashpoint (20/1)
Pretty light on the experience side and will likely be up on the pace with Shackleford.
5. Shackleford (12/1)
Got away with a comfortable lead and easy fractions in the Derby, he looked like he hit a wall in the last eighth of a mile in that race as well. More than likely he will see some competition up front in this one as well.
6. Sway Away (15/1)
Went zero for three in stakes company and made a premature move in the Arkansas Derby. Nehro was third out of that race and Archarcharch was well off the board. Mixed signs on that front and this one could better fitted for sprints base on his record.
7. Midnight Interlude (15/1)
Went from maiden to derby also ran in two races and could be up against it based on experience alone. Not to mention that the Southern California contingent has had a sour winter and spring as well.
8. Dance City (12/1)
Another speed here, this one is another Arkansas Derby new shooter.
9. Mucho Macho Man (6/1)
Always seems to run a decent to good race and showed a different dimension with his closing kick at Chuchill Downs. Would not be a shocker if this one got to the winner’s circle.
10. Dialed In (9/2)
His dramatic one run running style worked against him last out and is aiming for a big purse here. It will be hard to leave him out of the exotics and multis.
11. Animal Kingdom (2/1)
Could he win this race? Sure. Is he worth the bet at the fraction of the odds that you were getting two weeks ago? Probably not. By no means is this horse a lock for this leg, some of the new shooters have a chance and the returning Derby foes have a solid case for a rebound performance. This is a race that is worth shopping around for value in the win pool. As for the exotics and multis, it is probably a good idea to include this one for protection from a bust with juiced up odds in these pools.
12. Isn’t He Perfect (30/1)
If this is a question, then the answer is no.
13. Concealed Identity (30/1)
Probably will run like he is in witness protection here.
14. Mr. Commons (20/1)
If this horse wins, look for the stud fee on Artie Schiller to shoot up shortly after the results.
15 May 2011
Preakness Power Longshot
With the Preakness Stakes 2011 looming it is time to share our longshot selection. Astrology is a speedy horse we have been following since he broke his maiden at Saratoga. With projected odds at around 15-1 this new shooter to the triple crown could make Preakness betting very rewarding. After a stakes win at Churchill last year he has followed up with three consecutive second place finishes. This colt has the pedigree and connections to win this race.
Astrology broke his maiden at the Spa in one of those super maiden races; a full field of 14 and he beat future stakes winner To Honor and Serve. This might have been a sprint win but this horse is by Chef de Race A.P. Indy; this a horse bred to go long. With 2011 derby-like tepid pace Astrology could sit a nice trip right off the pace. The threats to win -both closers- Dailed In and Animal Kingdom should leave Astrology alone on the pace.
Astrology can be absolved of his last two losses. His first first loss this year was in the Sunland Derby. Off a long layoff he pressed a wicked 45 and change pace. Rather than fade meekly Astrology still finished strong for the place. Horse thrive on routine and do not like abrupt change. Astrology had to deal with massive change for his next race. From bone dry desert to bog Astrology was shipped to Aqueduct for the waterlogged sloppy Jerome. He finished a gallant second to Adios Charlie who subsequently gave a good account of himself in the Peter Pan at Belmont.
With two races under his belt in this form cycle Astrology should be ready to run his peak race in the Preakness. The connections of trainer Asmussen and Stonestreet stables have won this race two of the last four years with 2007 winner Curlin and 2009 heroine Rachel Alexandra. Astrology has a shot to make it three out of five.
Astrology broke his maiden at the Spa in one of those super maiden races; a full field of 14 and he beat future stakes winner To Honor and Serve. This might have been a sprint win but this horse is by Chef de Race A.P. Indy; this a horse bred to go long. With 2011 derby-like tepid pace Astrology could sit a nice trip right off the pace. The threats to win -both closers- Dailed In and Animal Kingdom should leave Astrology alone on the pace.
Astrology can be absolved of his last two losses. His first first loss this year was in the Sunland Derby. Off a long layoff he pressed a wicked 45 and change pace. Rather than fade meekly Astrology still finished strong for the place. Horse thrive on routine and do not like abrupt change. Astrology had to deal with massive change for his next race. From bone dry desert to bog Astrology was shipped to Aqueduct for the waterlogged sloppy Jerome. He finished a gallant second to Adios Charlie who subsequently gave a good account of himself in the Peter Pan at Belmont.
With two races under his belt in this form cycle Astrology should be ready to run his peak race in the Preakness. The connections of trainer Asmussen and Stonestreet stables have won this race two of the last four years with 2007 winner Curlin and 2009 heroine Rachel Alexandra. Astrology has a shot to make it three out of five.
14 May 2011
A Crucial Turning Point
The Preakness is now a week away; the Derby is considered the biggest event of the year, but the most important race of the year historically speaking is the Preakness. It has decided more year end honors than any other race has done in recent memory. Not to mention the obvious that it is the middle leg of the Triple Crown and is a single elimination playoff race for the Derby winner. There have been some dramatic finishes in recently as well. Recent memory speaks for itself on this one.
2010, Lookin at Lucky
After rough trips at Churchill and Santa Anita, he acquitted himself nicely with a jockey switch from Garret Gomez to Martin Garcia. Lookin at Lucky went on the clinch the divisional championship with a win in the Haskell. The Derby winner Super Saver was not the same after this race with the first of three off the board finishes. First Dude finished a resilient second after setting the pace, foreshadowing what the rest of the year held for this horse.
2009, Rachel Alexandra
Mine That Bird did not scare off many in this race and one of the chief opponents was a filly that just won by 20 lengths in the Kentucky Oaks. Breaking from post 13, Rachel Alexandra was wide most of the way while near the lead and still had enough left to hold off the surge of Mine That Bird. She went on to beat the male competition twice after this race en route to Horse of the Year and Champion three year old filly honors.
2008, Big Brown
After a dominant win in the Derby, he won with ease in the Preakness. If it weren’t for a quarter crack injury before the Belmont, this one would be referred to as a Triple Crown winner. He won two races at Monmouth Park and was named three-year-old champion.
2007, Curlin
The juvenile champion Street Sense and Curlin battled down to the wire in a photo finish that was about a fingernail difference between Street Sense going for a Triple Crown and taking an extended rest for the Travers and the Breeders’ Cup. Curlin was involved in two other thrilling stretch runs, the Belmont against Rags to Riches and the Jockey Club Gold Cup against Lawyer Ron. Both of those opponents went on to be named three-year-old filly champion and older male champion respectively. Curlin went on to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeder’s Cup Classic, which was the first of two Horse of the Year campaigns.
Animal Kingdom and Dialed In are the two horses that will immediately get a boost to the top of the class based on past successes. If one of the fresh horses or a Derby also ran wins it, a new challenger for the year-end championships has arrived. It will certainly be an interesting week.
2010, Lookin at Lucky
After rough trips at Churchill and Santa Anita, he acquitted himself nicely with a jockey switch from Garret Gomez to Martin Garcia. Lookin at Lucky went on the clinch the divisional championship with a win in the Haskell. The Derby winner Super Saver was not the same after this race with the first of three off the board finishes. First Dude finished a resilient second after setting the pace, foreshadowing what the rest of the year held for this horse.
2009, Rachel Alexandra
Mine That Bird did not scare off many in this race and one of the chief opponents was a filly that just won by 20 lengths in the Kentucky Oaks. Breaking from post 13, Rachel Alexandra was wide most of the way while near the lead and still had enough left to hold off the surge of Mine That Bird. She went on to beat the male competition twice after this race en route to Horse of the Year and Champion three year old filly honors.
2008, Big Brown
After a dominant win in the Derby, he won with ease in the Preakness. If it weren’t for a quarter crack injury before the Belmont, this one would be referred to as a Triple Crown winner. He won two races at Monmouth Park and was named three-year-old champion.
2007, Curlin
The juvenile champion Street Sense and Curlin battled down to the wire in a photo finish that was about a fingernail difference between Street Sense going for a Triple Crown and taking an extended rest for the Travers and the Breeders’ Cup. Curlin was involved in two other thrilling stretch runs, the Belmont against Rags to Riches and the Jockey Club Gold Cup against Lawyer Ron. Both of those opponents went on to be named three-year-old filly champion and older male champion respectively. Curlin went on to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeder’s Cup Classic, which was the first of two Horse of the Year campaigns.
Animal Kingdom and Dialed In are the two horses that will immediately get a boost to the top of the class based on past successes. If one of the fresh horses or a Derby also ran wins it, a new challenger for the year-end championships has arrived. It will certainly be an interesting week.
13 May 2011
Money Money Money
The Preakness is fast approaching after the long build towards the Kentucky Derby; the connections of Dialed In will be going for a $5.5 million payday being offered for winning the Holly Bull, Florida Derby and the Preakness. If Animal Kingdom wins this race and the Belmont to become the 12th Triple Crown winner, the owner is in line for $2.4 million in total purses without any bonus.
If Dialed in does win this race it is more than likely than not that Zito will chose to skip the Belmont with this one. He has stated that this horse thrives on a light schedule, a mile and a half race three weeks out from the Preakness is definitely not in a light schedule. If there were no bonus being offered for the middle leg of the Triple Crown, it is very likely that Dialed In would be training for the Belmont.
Only one horse has a chance at the Triple Crown, Animal Kingdom. His explosive run in the Derby made this possible. Up until 2004 there was a bonus offered by Visa for any horse that could sweep the series and in addition to that they held a less known, but lucrative bonus for the points leader of the three-year-old division up until August of the racing season. Before Visa, Chrysler had a Triple Crown series bonus based on points with a million-dollar bonus for the leader in points for those who raced in all three races. No one is sponsoring the hallowed racing series this year, leaving a $2.9 million dollar gap in purse incentives between the three big races and the Magna purse sweetener.
The old saying “Money makes the horse go” can certainly be used here; Dialed In ran an even, but distant ninth in the run for the roses. The Preakness would not be on the radar of the connections of Dialed In if it weren’t for the money being offered. Ice Box ran a visually impressive second last year in the Derby for the same trainer and same owner as Dialed In, they opted to try the Belmont instead of wheeling back in two weeks for the big race in Baltimore. This only goes to show that if there is an added incentive to run that trainers and owners will find their way to the secretary’s office a lot faster than usual. Back in the early nineties there was a series of races that offered bonuses for the handicap division called the American Championship Racing Series. Those races featured full fields with top horses facing off.
If anything the slot machine parlors and card rooms probably won’t be the savoir of racing, but they do offer a new revenue stream. That revenue stream at its best can serve as a way to get horses out of the stables and back on to the racetrack. With NYRA eventually getting this new source of income, one could be hopeful that this could lead to juiced up purses with bonuses that have the possibility of attracting large fields for one of the beacons of racing in the United States.
If Dialed in does win this race it is more than likely than not that Zito will chose to skip the Belmont with this one. He has stated that this horse thrives on a light schedule, a mile and a half race three weeks out from the Preakness is definitely not in a light schedule. If there were no bonus being offered for the middle leg of the Triple Crown, it is very likely that Dialed In would be training for the Belmont.
Only one horse has a chance at the Triple Crown, Animal Kingdom. His explosive run in the Derby made this possible. Up until 2004 there was a bonus offered by Visa for any horse that could sweep the series and in addition to that they held a less known, but lucrative bonus for the points leader of the three-year-old division up until August of the racing season. Before Visa, Chrysler had a Triple Crown series bonus based on points with a million-dollar bonus for the leader in points for those who raced in all three races. No one is sponsoring the hallowed racing series this year, leaving a $2.9 million dollar gap in purse incentives between the three big races and the Magna purse sweetener.
The old saying “Money makes the horse go” can certainly be used here; Dialed In ran an even, but distant ninth in the run for the roses. The Preakness would not be on the radar of the connections of Dialed In if it weren’t for the money being offered. Ice Box ran a visually impressive second last year in the Derby for the same trainer and same owner as Dialed In, they opted to try the Belmont instead of wheeling back in two weeks for the big race in Baltimore. This only goes to show that if there is an added incentive to run that trainers and owners will find their way to the secretary’s office a lot faster than usual. Back in the early nineties there was a series of races that offered bonuses for the handicap division called the American Championship Racing Series. Those races featured full fields with top horses facing off.
If anything the slot machine parlors and card rooms probably won’t be the savoir of racing, but they do offer a new revenue stream. That revenue stream at its best can serve as a way to get horses out of the stables and back on to the racetrack. With NYRA eventually getting this new source of income, one could be hopeful that this could lead to juiced up purses with bonuses that have the possibility of attracting large fields for one of the beacons of racing in the United States.
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