Uncle Mo vs. 1 1/4 miles and fourteen other races

With six Breeders' Cup races on Friday and nine on Saturday, it is almost certain financial doom to play every race. With this being said, we here at Powercap introduce the almost infallible five star rating system to evaluate the races on hand.

The Friday Slate


*****
The Distaff (Race 10)

Last year it was a rematch of Havre de Grace and Blind Luck, this year It's Tricky and Plum Pretty square off for the fourth time this year. Elsewhere in the field is Ask the Moon, her connections made an interesting decision of running at Santa Anita in her latest to no avail after two good efforts at the Spa. If she can rebound from her last race, she will be a tough customer here.


****
The Filly & Mare Turf (Race 9)

This is the race where the American based turf runners have the best chance of winning against the Europeans on their familiar surface. Stacelita is listed as the 2/1 favorite and has the edge of winning at 1 3/8 miles around the tight turns. Her last race was over a turf that was dead slow, my figures have it at -19 slow.


***
The Filly & Mare Sprint (Race 7)

Turbulent Descent looks to sew up a title here and she looks like a vulnerable favorite. The Puype filly has been off since early August and the early pace of that race was average at best before Descent blew by competition like Roman Treasure late.

An interesting horse in this spot is Great Hot who had two starts in October and a start against her elders in the Lady's Secret. Her sprint starts are decent from the looks of it going three for three in her attempts.

The Juvenile Sprint (Race 5)

Yet another juvenile cash grab has been added to the schedule. Trinniberg has come up short twice against stakes competition. Secret Circle ran big in his debut race. Toss Vexor's Hopeful performance and he doesn't miss the board in his short career. Seeker had a big race two back on Hopeful day. It should be a good first installment for this race.


**
The Juvenile Fillies (Race 8)

My Miss Aurelia looks to avoid the career trajectory that AZ Warrior took after her win in last year's Frizette.

*
The Juvenile Fillies Turf (Race 6)

On the course of any card there is a race or two that handicappers don't like playing and the combined phrase of juvenile fillies on the turf is my kryptonite.

The Saturday Slate

*****
The Classic (Race 11)

The five million dollar question here is Uncle Mo's ability to stay the mile and a quarter. The last time a three year old favorite tried stretching out from one mile to a mile and a quarter was Fusaichi Pegasus. It didn't work in 2000, I have my doubts it will work now. Keep in mind that Fusaichi Pegasus was trying this after winning the Derby. The longest distance that Mo has won at was a mile and a sixteenth.

Ruler On Ice looks interesting here, he gets a ten pound weight shift from To Honor and Serve and has won at a mile and half. Stay Thirsty also gets another look here as the unheralded Repole entry here, he ran in every step of the Belmont and won the midsummer classic. To Honor and Serve comes in hot here and the only setback is he is picking up eight pounds off of his previous start.

****
The Sprint (Race 5)

I guess that Zito is one of the twelve readers of this blog.

The Mile (Race 10)

Apparently Goldikova is on the decline, if I owned a horse that was on this type downward spiral I would be overjoyed. Win or lose, this mare's spot as one of the all time Breeders' Cup performers is secure. It will be quite a while until another one like her comes around.

***
The Dirt Mile (Race 7)

In a rare occurrence the Preakness winner is in a race that is not the Classic. In his defeats since the Preakness the margin has been 7 3/4, a neck, 22 1/2, and 4 3/4. He is probably a good bet against here.

Tapizar came back with a victory after missing the Triple Crown series, he is probably a bit short for this spot. He does look like one to watch out for in the 2012 season though.

Trappe Shot is in this race after seemingly being aimed at the Sprint all season long, his running style better meant for the mile distance though. Not a lot was lost in transition to this race.

The Juvenile Turf (Race 4)

If it weren't for the Pilgrim returnees entered here this race would be a one star affair. Shkspeare Shaliyah and Fantastic Song ran a closing number over the dead boggy turf that was 14 and 17 lengths faster than average. Not bad for a turf runner and that is exceptional for juveniles.

**
The Juvenile (Race 9)

Union Rags could wrap up the Juvenile title and Derby favoritism with a win here. It seems like anytime there is a two year colt that wins two or three big races in NY they are immediately shot to the front of every public handicapper's Derby list. They usually fall short of the Derby expectations. It happened to Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve last year, Nobiz Like Shobiz years ago, and Doneraile Court around a decade ago. The last time a hyped NY juvenile won a triple crown race was 2004 when Birdstone upset the Triple Crown bid of Smarty Jones.

The Turf (Race 8)

The European invaders will all be bet here and Steven Crist is a big fan of the American turf runners entered. Of course the overseas counterparts have a great edge, they carry weight in the big races and all of their marquee events are on the lawn.

*
The Marathon (Race 3)
The Turf Sprint (Race 6)

These two categories are also my handicapping kryptonite.

A photo finish is worth three words

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Uncle Mo

Nickname: Mr. Softee

First Impression: He certainly looks exposed after that Wood Memorial.

The case for this horse winning the Derby: His last race was just a speed bump and the loss will toughen him up

The case against: He probably has some distance limitations like Favorite Trick did. He hasn’t had a tough work schedule since his Breeders’ Cup win. Other top prospects have been solidifying their postions while Mo was vacationing at Palm Meadows.

Thanks Pletcher, nice training job. If a heavy favorite loses it should finish off the board, not a meager third saving the bridge jumpers from an embarrassing loss. In addition to that Uncle Mo losing destroyed the pick fours and pick sixes that had him singled. Imagine being alive in a pick six that started with 8/1 and 6/1 winners and having what looks like a mortal lock as the single. It feels good, right? The 1/10 shot runs like a 10/1 plug, not such a great feeling anymore. The pick six players had to have played those tickets off site, because the lack of property damage and no rioting at Aqueduct after that loss with so much money riding on one horse is astounding. There has been rioting at Yonkers Raceway for less.

For selfish reasons I wanted to see Uncle Mo win the Wood. Not because I had any money on him, but for the reason that it would be a nice finish to this series. It is like a writer at Game 6 of the 1986 World Series cheering for the Red Sox to win for the reason that the article they wrote was completed; a change in the outcome will cause massive changes close to a deadline. Instead of a strong finish to this series now it will limp to the finish line like Uncle Mo, thanks Pletcher.

Scenes from the Big A: The Wood Memorial

The main event of the spring Aqueduct meet is the Wood Memorial, this year the storyline was that this was the prep for the probable Derby favorite Uncle Mo. Uncle Mo went from probable favorite to one of many contenders for sought after prize in about one minute and fifty one seconds.






NYRA or the concession company that works with NYRA had a drink special that was called the Uncle Mojito, more than likely this will be the only time you see this drink special offered after today's performance.



With a an upset like this you figure some fans would take this loss a bit harder than others based on their financial stake in the outcome or other reasons than that. Apparently one fan had a lot riding on Uncle Mo on Saturday.

Aqueduct Saturday Stakes Racing Preview

This weekend marks two milestones in the year that signify that spring is here, Keeneland runs its April meet loaded with stakes action and the return of grade one racing to New York. Keeneland has gone from a massive speed favoring dirt surface and closer friendly turf course to a racecourse with a pair of surfaces that tend to lean towards horses that have closer tendencies. That being said, it does make handicapping that meet easier, just avoid 90% of the card and play the featured race of the day.

Comely Stakes

This race was moved from a week past the Wood Memorial to the day of the Wood. Ruffian and a few other Hall of Fame fillies have won this race. It is now a grade three that annually features a variation of Florida shippers that have had minor stakes or allowance victories before shipping up and the grizzled runners that have wintered in New York.

Royal Sighting broke her maiden by twelve last out and is immediately stepped into a stakes race. This horse had an unusual path to the winners’ circle in her most recent start. Patrick Kelly’s horses usually drop back early and make a sustained bid in the later stages of the race, Evening Attire did this and so did Naughty New Yorker. Royal Sighting went immediately to the lead and never looked back, in previous starts she was fifth or further back in the early stages before trying to make a run.

Bay Shore Stakes

This race used to be a stepping stone towards the Wood Memorial. Secretariat won this race in his three year old debut and then went on to the Gotham and the Wood Memorial before Triple Crown immortality. Other notable winners of this event are Lost in the Fog, Gulch, Bold Forbes, and Damascus. That is quite a roll call for a race that is a purse downgrade from being a listed stakes race.

J J’s Lucky Train tried his luck at the two turn stakes races at Aqueduct in January and February with a pair of second place finishes. He won a seven furlong race at Laurel on February 26th where he dueled all the whole way with Bandbox, who went on to win the Miracle Wood Stakes in March at Laurel.

Steve Assmussen won this race with J Be K in 2008 after a poor showing at Fair Grounds. This year Justin Phillip is Assmussen’s entry and he had a weak showing in two stakes down in the bayou. Justin Phillip is going to have to be at his best to win from the rail with other speeds lined up outside of him though.

Carter Handicap

The first half of the Repole double is entered here with Calibrachoa, I set the over/under on that double at six dollars on a two dollar wager. Have You Ever is once again entered as a rabbit to ensure a quick pace for his stable-mate. Apriority probably will take a lot of action here as well, he had a monster race last out running three seconds faster than the average time for the distance. Morning Line has had some tough luck in recent starts with second place finishes in the Donn Handicap and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile after doing much of the grunt work on the front end. From the looks of it, this race will have a swift early pace.

Wood Memorial


Uncle Mo will probably go off 1/9 here. In terms of value when betting on favorites, there is next to none. With a horse like Uncle Mo, getting 3/5 would be a mixed blessing. Getting sixty cents on the dollar on a horse that usually goes off insanely short and has yet to taste defeat means that you are getting a slight edge on the pari-mutuel competition. On the negative side it also could be a foreboding sign of a negative outcome, so you see why betting favorites is a difficult proposition.

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!

After Uncle Mo’s rousing comeback to the races this last Saturday at Gulfstream Park, Repole Stable and the soft serve ice cream giant Mr. Softee have reached an agreement to do a cross promotion in the upcoming months. Much like the one that IEAH Stable and UPS had during Big Brown’s vaunted attempt at the elusive Triple Crown. When Mr. Softee representatives were reached for comment they said, ”We are very proud of signing an agreement with a group of sports owners that exemplify a great soft schedule en route to a big event, much like our great soft serve frozen treats.”

Team Repole's meeting with the Mr. Softee people. Not pitcured, a man with an ice cream cone for a head.

Here at Powercap, we pride ourselves on getting the inside scoop on these sorts of stories and we have an early draft design of the Uncle Mo Mr. Softee truck.