These price conscious players are like Bigfoot or the Loch Ness monster; often spoken about but never seen. The group that is advocating a boycott of Santa Anita is unfortunately not going to make a dent in Santa Anita's business. The small uptick in action generated by a takeout reduction can never account for the loss in revenue generated by the takeout reduction itself.
Before you go off and launch into ad hominem mode I am only speaking from experience; with data collected the hard way. There was a time when I used to play Sam Houston solely for the low takeout (12%) pick 3. If some working class guy in New York is spending his evenings working over Sam Houston there must of been many more players like me. I was shocked to see the trifecta pools (25% takeout) at Sam Houston were 2 to 3 times bigger than the pick 3. The Sam Houston pick 3 was a great value; yet it was completely ignored by the public. The public preferred the fast action of the trifecta even if the cost was over 100% more. This was not the only failure of low takeout wagers offered by racetracks to entice players to look at their tracks. The low takeout pick 4 at Ellis was failure. The low takeout offered at Laurel last year was unfortunatly a failure too. This boycott of Santa Anita is destined to be an inadequate effort.
The vast majority of horseplayers are expressing a compulsive vice when they visit the windows; tracks make money by feeding this vice. There is no reason for track management keep hitting their heads against the wall expecting a different result chasing a nonexistent demographic of price conscious players. The demographic is too small to matter. If you want to reach the price conscious crowd publish some coupons in the Sunday paper. Tracks make money by having a large horse population and carding big fields.
Power cap- existential handicapping
Showing posts with label takeout. Show all posts
Showing posts with label takeout. Show all posts
26 December 2010
02 July 2008
Ellis Park Closing-Handicapper Friendly Owner Out Of Game
Ellis Park owner Ron Geary reported that the upcoming Ellis Park meet will be canceled. As for plans on opening late or next year “I don’t have any plans on opening it again as a racetrack,” Geary said in a telephone interview. “That’s for sure.” While Geary was a handicapper friendly owner, one less track is good news for stretched thin horse populations.
Geary was a inventive owner who introduced handicapper favorable bets like the 4% takeout pick 4. Unfortunately the bet did not help the Ellis Park bottom line. The increase in handle on the pick 4 did not negate the loss in takeout, showing that horseplayers prefer action over a edge. The bet was to be canceled for 2008.
This is a good thing. The good news in all this is that field size should increase at tracks like Arlington, Colonial, Mountaineer, River Downs, Indiana Downs, Presque Isle etc, etc, etc. With Calder turning into a complete joke many of the connections have moved to New York improving fields up north. So many tracks on the "B" circuit dilute the product. With tracks closing the product will be bolstered elsewhere.
Yes it is preposterous to compare Ellis Park to a boutique meet like Keeneland but these boutique meets are special because they are something to look forward to and do not drag on endlessly. There are so many American horse racing meets that drag on like an arctic winter or a herpes infection. Royal Ascot is special because it is run only one week a year. Saratoga is special because it is a meet filled with quality in a area with no flat racing ten and a half months of the year. When something is rare and of quality the public clamors for it and looks forward to it. Racing would do good to let the natural market forces cull quantity and increase quality.
Geary was a inventive owner who introduced handicapper favorable bets like the 4% takeout pick 4. Unfortunately the bet did not help the Ellis Park bottom line. The increase in handle on the pick 4 did not negate the loss in takeout, showing that horseplayers prefer action over a edge. The bet was to be canceled for 2008.
This is a good thing. The good news in all this is that field size should increase at tracks like Arlington, Colonial, Mountaineer, River Downs, Indiana Downs, Presque Isle etc, etc, etc. With Calder turning into a complete joke many of the connections have moved to New York improving fields up north. So many tracks on the "B" circuit dilute the product. With tracks closing the product will be bolstered elsewhere.
Yes it is preposterous to compare Ellis Park to a boutique meet like Keeneland but these boutique meets are special because they are something to look forward to and do not drag on endlessly. There are so many American horse racing meets that drag on like an arctic winter or a herpes infection. Royal Ascot is special because it is run only one week a year. Saratoga is special because it is a meet filled with quality in a area with no flat racing ten and a half months of the year. When something is rare and of quality the public clamors for it and looks forward to it. Racing would do good to let the natural market forces cull quantity and increase quality.
20 June 2008
Advanced Deposit Wagering Fiasco
Betting on ponies in 2008 reminds me of all the three card monte games that were played in the streets before the quality of life assault eliminated these games from street corners. Those Monte guys and their shills had a uncanny knack of hiding that lady and taking the marks money. They were fun games to watch. Today's horse racing market is not that far removed from the three card Monte games from 20 years ago. It must be funny for someone out there to watch horseplayers jumping through hoops to watch races and get a bet down. However it is not so funny if you are the mark jumping through the hoops.
Just like the Monte game the mark is always one step behind. You look under one hand and expect to be able to bet Churchill on the Twinspires website but the lady is not there. You go to the NYRA website to watch replays and the NY state government restricts NYRA from showing video and replays, the lady is not there either. This is like Ikea not being able to display furniture in it's big box superstore. You have to go to some to other store (calracing) to see the Ikea goods. You live in Texas and you can bet with a ADW, you can see a lady, but you can not bet on Texas races if you live in Texas. It is like being married and not being allowed to be intimate with your spouse. It is getting increasingly more challenging to find the lady in the horse racing world. The various regulatory bodies and the tracks themselves have made mistake after mistake, taking the customer for granted, disrespecting the customer and making few attempts to attract new fans. Real discontent is growing in the horseplayer community and a backlash is underway.
What can a horseplayer that truly loves the game do? We enjoy the game, it provides a diversion from the mundane responsibilities of life but on the other hand who wants to be a three card Monte mark? In New York takeout is increasing in new and punitive ways. It is like the state has introduced a new automated milking mechanism to harvest our milk more effectively and without us noticing. The state really thinks that horseplayers in New York will stand for getting less than track prices on each and every race we bet on. The NYSRWB consistently rules not for the good of the game or those that fund the game but for special interests like OTB. Rather than governing with the benevolent philosophy of growing the game and attracting new players, the current horseplayer is consistently treated like a lactating heifer fit to be milked dry. It is time to take our teats and jump the fence.
Horseplayers are not trapped in a round pen. We have options and outs. We can close our accounts and leave the game we love behind, but why cut off our noses to spite our faces? Perhaps a better option is to move our money to people that want our business and will treat us and the billions we wager with respect. Off-shore wagering was something I once resisted but it is time to embrace this alternate way to enjoy the game. It is a way to liberate ourselves from a dysfunctional system while collecting beneficial rebates. It is all about helping those that help us.
horse race wagering
Just like the Monte game the mark is always one step behind. You look under one hand and expect to be able to bet Churchill on the Twinspires website but the lady is not there. You go to the NYRA website to watch replays and the NY state government restricts NYRA from showing video and replays, the lady is not there either. This is like Ikea not being able to display furniture in it's big box superstore. You have to go to some to other store (calracing) to see the Ikea goods. You live in Texas and you can bet with a ADW, you can see a lady, but you can not bet on Texas races if you live in Texas. It is like being married and not being allowed to be intimate with your spouse. It is getting increasingly more challenging to find the lady in the horse racing world. The various regulatory bodies and the tracks themselves have made mistake after mistake, taking the customer for granted, disrespecting the customer and making few attempts to attract new fans. Real discontent is growing in the horseplayer community and a backlash is underway.
What can a horseplayer that truly loves the game do? We enjoy the game, it provides a diversion from the mundane responsibilities of life but on the other hand who wants to be a three card Monte mark? In New York takeout is increasing in new and punitive ways. It is like the state has introduced a new automated milking mechanism to harvest our milk more effectively and without us noticing. The state really thinks that horseplayers in New York will stand for getting less than track prices on each and every race we bet on. The NYSRWB consistently rules not for the good of the game or those that fund the game but for special interests like OTB. Rather than governing with the benevolent philosophy of growing the game and attracting new players, the current horseplayer is consistently treated like a lactating heifer fit to be milked dry. It is time to take our teats and jump the fence.
Horseplayers are not trapped in a round pen. We have options and outs. We can close our accounts and leave the game we love behind, but why cut off our noses to spite our faces? Perhaps a better option is to move our money to people that want our business and will treat us and the billions we wager with respect. Off-shore wagering was something I once resisted but it is time to embrace this alternate way to enjoy the game. It is a way to liberate ourselves from a dysfunctional system while collecting beneficial rebates. It is all about helping those that help us.
horse race wagering
18 June 2008
OTB Corruption Blocks NYRA Replays On Website
On top of the 1% takeout hike demanded by OTB, now OTB has legally blocked NYRA's ability to show replays on NYRA's own website. When you go to the NYRA website the quoted message below appears.
People that think this game needs more centralized government regulation do not understand how government works or lack the experience of dealing with government bureaucracy. More centralized regulation empowers the government parasite to bleed racing until it dies like the powerful and corrupt New York government bleeds racing in New York. Racing needs to clean it's own house before allowing government parasites to attach themselves to the circultory system.
Link to NYRA replays
People that think this game needs more centralized government regulation do not understand how government works or lack the experience of dealing with government bureaucracy. More centralized regulation empowers the government parasite to bleed racing until it dies like the powerful and corrupt New York government bleeds racing in New York. Racing needs to clean it's own house before allowing government parasites to attach themselves to the circultory system.
Link to NYRA replays
For regulatory purposes, NYRA is not permitted at this time to provide a link to our race replays. NYRA understands and regrets this inconvenience for our fans who have come to rely upon these services.
Please be assured NYRA is doing everything within its power to work with the New York State Racing and Wagering Board to restore this link to our web site as soon as possible.
17 June 2008
Government Corruption In New York Continues
Horrific government corruption continues in New York. Fueled by the liberal misconception that that a large government will cure all socials ills, OTB has forced the NY government to raise NYRA takeout across the board. The government continues to grow year after year in New York like a malignant tumor. 26% takeout on pick 4's is a horrific cross to bear for horseplayers. NYRA has had some handle growth this year and NYRA was completely dominating Magna, Twin Spires tracks and Keeneland this year. Now with the takeout increasing the churn is going to drop and the NYRA handle growth will reverse to a handle dip. The total amount that the government leaches from horseplayers will dip as the handle crashes due to the increased takeout.
02 April 2008
Saturday April Fifth Sam Houston Card
On Saturday the fifth of April Sam Houston has an excellent triple stakes card on tap. There is real opportunity here for every handicapper to make money as Sam Houston has 12% takeout on pick 3 and every stakes races has a very vulnerable favorite. This track and their low takeout pick 3 should be supported, I play there when I can. The combination of pool underutilization and low takeout yields many generous pick 3 payouts. This may be there last Saturday of the year for Sam Houston as the racing moves to Lone Star.
Race 5 is a turf stakes for fillies and mares the morning line favorite New Edition is racing off a long layoff and drew a horrendous outside post, with her being first time Asmussen she will take huge amounts of money. This is a good race to kick off a pick three using the logical contenders not named New Edition.
Race 7 is the Grade III Connelly Turf stakes, the probable heavy favorite from the Asmussen barn is Grade I winner Student Council. This horse has never won on turf and is a big bet against at a short price. The pick 3 from race five will end here and just glancing over it there are already two vulnerable chalks bookending the sequence.
Race 9 is a Turf Sprint stakes and features Golden Hare who is a $5K claimer that has rambled off 7 strait wins and 10 out of the last 12, he is a horse to admire and respect. Golden Hare is also from the Asmussen stable. Smitty Sunshine also looms large here.
Race 5 is a turf stakes for fillies and mares the morning line favorite New Edition is racing off a long layoff and drew a horrendous outside post, with her being first time Asmussen she will take huge amounts of money. This is a good race to kick off a pick three using the logical contenders not named New Edition.
Race 7 is the Grade III Connelly Turf stakes, the probable heavy favorite from the Asmussen barn is Grade I winner Student Council. This horse has never won on turf and is a big bet against at a short price. The pick 3 from race five will end here and just glancing over it there are already two vulnerable chalks bookending the sequence.
Race 9 is a Turf Sprint stakes and features Golden Hare who is a $5K claimer that has rambled off 7 strait wins and 10 out of the last 12, he is a horse to admire and respect. Golden Hare is also from the Asmussen stable. Smitty Sunshine also looms large here.
03 January 2008
High takeout-the public loves it
Many players and writers are of the opinion that lowered takeout increases handle. In theory I agree with this thought, but a closer look reveals that lowered takeout does not increase wagering enough to justify the lowered takeout. Why is this? Perhaps the public is not sophisticated enough to divert their play to the pools with lowered takeouts? Have the tracks done enough to educate on low takeout pools? Is the wagering public primarily concerned with action and completely oblivious to takeout?
Over the summer 2007 Ellis Park experimented with a loss leader pick 4 with a unheard of 4% takeout. While the pick 4 pools did increase the experiment was deemed a failure as the increase in handle did not off set the reduction in takeout and the track lost revenue on the deal. The 4% takeout pick four has been nixed for the 2008 Ellis meet.
As you review the chart linked below, the three pools that should catch your attention is the NYRA two horse pools at 17.5% and the Sam Houston pick-3 at 12%. If your action is at NYRA the best deal is the exacta/daily double you are getting two bets at 17.5%, that 8.75% per leg. NYRA also has lowest strait pools in the country.
The lowest takeout pool in the country is unquestionably the Sam Houston Pick 3 at 12%. It is only 4% per leg. You would think that the public would be all over this pool. They are not. You could even say the 12% pick 3 is ignored. The trifecta even with a 25% takeout consistently has two to three time the handle of the pick three. If handicappers want low takeouts they must support them. Track management has to put its neck on the line to lower takeouts. If the public continues to ignore low takeout pools in favor of high takeout pools where is the incentive for track management to lower takeouts?
Lets compare the pick three to the three horse trifecta pool Sam Houston. The trifecta pool takeout at Sam Houston is more than double the pick 3 pool takeout (25%)
.
31 DEC07
Race 4 Pick 3 10.6K
Tri 26.6K
Race 5 pick 3 6.0k
tri 29.9k
Race 6 pick 3 8.1K
tri 29.5k
race 7 pick 3 10.0k
tri 26.0k
race 8 pick 3 8.0k
tri 22.3k
race 9 pick 3 10.6
tri 23.2k
race 10 pick3 12.0k
tri 26.0k
takeout chart
Over the summer 2007 Ellis Park experimented with a loss leader pick 4 with a unheard of 4% takeout. While the pick 4 pools did increase the experiment was deemed a failure as the increase in handle did not off set the reduction in takeout and the track lost revenue on the deal. The 4% takeout pick four has been nixed for the 2008 Ellis meet.
As you review the chart linked below, the three pools that should catch your attention is the NYRA two horse pools at 17.5% and the Sam Houston pick-3 at 12%. If your action is at NYRA the best deal is the exacta/daily double you are getting two bets at 17.5%, that 8.75% per leg. NYRA also has lowest strait pools in the country.
The lowest takeout pool in the country is unquestionably the Sam Houston Pick 3 at 12%. It is only 4% per leg. You would think that the public would be all over this pool. They are not. You could even say the 12% pick 3 is ignored. The trifecta even with a 25% takeout consistently has two to three time the handle of the pick three. If handicappers want low takeouts they must support them. Track management has to put its neck on the line to lower takeouts. If the public continues to ignore low takeout pools in favor of high takeout pools where is the incentive for track management to lower takeouts?
Lets compare the pick three to the three horse trifecta pool Sam Houston. The trifecta pool takeout at Sam Houston is more than double the pick 3 pool takeout (25%)
.
31 DEC07
Race 4 Pick 3 10.6K
Tri 26.6K
Race 5 pick 3 6.0k
tri 29.9k
Race 6 pick 3 8.1K
tri 29.5k
race 7 pick 3 10.0k
tri 26.0k
race 8 pick 3 8.0k
tri 22.3k
race 9 pick 3 10.6
tri 23.2k
race 10 pick3 12.0k
tri 26.0k
takeout chart
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