Peter Pan Report

Drove down to Belmont for the Peter Pan. It was a warm humid day and the track had significant moisture in the surface from the deluge of 9 days and nights of rain. There was a clear speed bias as almost all the winners either set the pace or were less than two lengths off the pace. The speed bias was strongest early in the card and slowly waned as the track dried out. My time at Belmont was split between the paddock and the third floor grandstand power perch with binoculars in tow. Here is what we gathered from the days races.

The winner of the 6th race Pocket Cowboys is a huge gelding. He set a fast pace and held gamely after being confronted, albeit with the bias. This is a horse that is built to run on the turf When he runs first time turf I will take a swing with him as he has the look for a horse that would relish that surface. If the race is on the inner turf it will be a bigger swing as a speedy horse that likes turf does very well on the inner turf at Belmont.

In race 7 a maiden special Ricoriatoa was fractious in the paddock and had to be walked back and forth to get the tack on as he would not stand still. This was my first look at Paulo Lobo and his crew since he moved his barn from SoCal to New York. The trainer and and his help seemed professional and well prepared as they did well with a fractious horse. Mr. Lobo will do well in New York. After Ricoriatoa's paddock act the bad behavior continued and the Mig dismounted before he was loaded due to more fractiousness. I used Ricoriatoa in my wagers but after his behavior I expected him to fade quite early in the race. After a slow break Ricoriatoa rushed up to press the pace, had a spirited duel with the winner and held well in the lane. All things considered he ran well to claim the place share of the purse. While he may have some class we could also chalk up his run to the bias. The speedy winner Cabaret Cowboy looked great in the paddock, was bet hard off an October layoff and had the bias in his favor.

They pulled out all the stops on Imperial Council after his Wood paddock hysterics. He was in Belmont's troublesome horse paddock away from the other horses instead of the regular paddock with the rest of the field. Instead of walking alone Imperial Council had a female pony with him the entire time he was in the paddock and the pony stayed with him around the walking ring as well. Imperial Council held together this time and the assistant did a great job with saddling him and keeping him composed. He was not washed out, he did not rear up or display any fractious behavior like the Wood Memorial. The biggest incident in the paddock was caused by Al Khali. When Al Khali got wind of Imperial Council's pony and he let out and loud whinny and suddenly became aroused as he paraded around the paddock. It was very embarrassing for all the ladies in the paddock area. After some time sequestered in his stall this impassioned competitor returned to his flaccid state and was calm in the parade.

The Peter Pan parade was uneventful. All horses looked composed and well. No real behavior excuses except for the rise in the paddock from Al Khali. The significant speed bias and the addition of blinkers on Hello Broadway may have gave Hello Broadway the green light to attempt a "Sinister Minister". After setting a blazing pace Hello Broadway was spent at the 1/4 pole. The insane pace theft attempt did not work very well. Charitable Man looked good on paper second off the layoff and had a great trip sitting right off the insane fractions. Hello Broadway's insane pace played right into Charitable Man's hand.

Imperial Council rated four lengths off Charitable Man and had dead aim on him at the top of the lane. That is when Imperial Council's distance limitations kicked in and he lost ground from the 1/8th pole to the wire. Imperial Council is a nice horse but he will excel at shorter distances. Look for a cutback is distance for Imperial Council next race, he will be live in the Woody Stephens if he runs there. Seven furlongs is this colts wheelhouse.

Scorewithcater took some action out of the key race Sunland Derby but he was not up to the task here. Mine That Bird was not flattered by this performance as Scorewithcater was outrun at every call. The speed bias would not let a deep closer like him make up ground late. This was the type of track where you had to be close. Despite swinging wide to make a run Scorewithcater made no impression. To the Sunland derby's credit Mythical Power powered into a Lone Star derby win out of the Sunland Derby.

Out of this race Brave Victory ran well. He was one of the few horses to made up ground late on the whole day and looked well in the paddock. He could be a horse that moves forward in the future or take advantage of a complete pace collapse.

Charitable Man confirmed his class. He had a dream trip but this colt has speed and is able to carry it a distance of ground. While the poly race at Keeneland might have been a complete throw out, he did benefit from the run fitness-wise. Charitable Man could give a generous run in the Belmont Stakes and the three year old races at Saratoga.

Wood Memorial Trip Report

Yet another great day at the Big-A. While others choose to waste hundreds of dollars to go to taxpayer park A & B($1.8 Billion in public debt)the smart discretionary money was at the Big-A. Free to admission, free parking and free to scream your lungs off. The weather was a brisk 55F and the forecast winds gusting to 35 knots out of the southwest were blocked by the massive grandstand. The track was very fair to closers and speed, so perhaps Todd Pletcher must be kicking himself for not entering Dunkirk in the Wood who likely could have given a favorable account of himself on a fair surface.

The crowd was boisterous at the Big-A. There were random chats of Tala-mo throughout the day from the third floor grandstand. One side of the grandstand would randomly and loudly chant "tala!" and the other side would return chant "mo!". This went on for most of the day and foreshadowed the Wood heroics. No PA system required to tell the fans what to do as the life was bubbling out of them, no PA system puppet strings required. For a modest sized crowd it was loud and the stakes winners all received rounds of applause when they returned to be unsaddled. It was sort of like a mini-Belmont Stakes day in an edgy environment.


It was was a very interesting card and the track was fair with speed, stalkers or closers all claiming wins on the day. Almost every year a obscene longshot wins one of the undercard races (2005 Livelyupyourself 48-1, etc etc) and this year that tradition was upheld by All Bets Off at 20-1 in race 2. Race 6 winner Montecore is a horse to watch as he won with complete ease. The winner of the Bay Shore Capt Candyman Can looked tremendous in the paddock and ran to his looks. Giant Moon continued his successful return to the races with improving form third off the layoff. He claimed the Excelsior Handicap while pressing a slow pace, his 13-1 price spiced up the exotic vertical wagers surrounding the Wood Memorial. A game Kodiak Kowboy gallantly ran down Fabulous Strike to annex the Grade I Carter, making it graded stakes wins at all three NYRA tracks and wins in over the last three seasons.


The Wood Memorial was touted as I Want Revenge and Imperial Council versus the rest. Only these two were bet with the rest of the horses cold on the board. After looking closer at the race I picked up a few solid knocks on Imperial Council. A generous poster on paceadvanatge.com pointed out that Imperial Council's action was paddle wheel-like. After watching a few head-on replays of Imperial Council's races I agreed, horses with inefficient action tire going long. Imperial Council was a power toss. When Imperial Council made a complete mess of the paddock I felt confident that he would be off the board and I was able to really get involved in the horizontal wagers. With two power opinions in the Wood, (I Want Revenge was a lock / Imperial Council would be off the board) I was able to obliterate the race vertically and horizontally. (sorry for the redboard) Imperial Council's future is in running at sprint distances. His inefficient action will keep him at distances less than 8 furlongs. As Soon as Shug figures this out the better. For my sake I hope he runs long all year.









Imperial Council's Antics

As anyone can see I Want Revenge was very impressive. He had to overcome breaking five lengths behind the field, running into a trap, running in to a jackpot, he got knocked sideways and had to split horses on two occasions. Even with all these obstacles blocking his access tot he wire he won clear as much the best. I Want Revenge's Wood trip is so eventful that you have to wonder if it took something out of him. My gut says he will be okay. Previous class horses to have nightmares trips like this were Invasor in the 2007 Donn, and Alfeet Alex in the 2005 Derby and Preakness. Both horses came back to win their next starts. Class horses and class people thrive on adversity.









I Want Revenge a picture of composure in the post parade









A poor break for I Want Revenge









Jackpot city for I Want Revenge









I Want Revenge powers through the wall of horses









I Want Revenge clear at the wire









A triumphant return for the most valiant of winners

All pics courtesy of Keith & Tara

Gotham Recap

Was at the Gotham Stakes and it was a glorious day. After months of bone chilling cold it warmed into the 60's. The crowd was rather large compared to previous runnings of the Gotham, it seems like the Gotham has become a mini-event. For almost the whole entire winter it has been cold and the track has played like a deep dry beach. Now that the thaw is in full effect, the track superintendent was able to liberally water the track. This water created a speed bias that dominated the results of the days races. The record shows that eight of ten race were won by horses on the lead.

The biggest indicator of the bias was the win by Sassification. This filly has had so many better opportunities to win races and has failed so miserably in the past. For her to go wire to wire at 49-1 versus a sprint field confirmed the massive bias. Immediatly proceeding her race the track was watered tightening it up even more. This track was the equivilent of a conveyor belt for a need the lead speed horse like Sassification.

Mr. Fantasy really acted up before the Gotham. The crowd in the paddock was tremendous, if a fire official was on hand he would have called for a head count. Mr. Fantasy was fractious, anxious and lathered up. This is no way for a speed horse to act before a graded stakes race. He lost this race in the paddock. If this colt could settle down he could run better next out. He requires a paddock check for all future races. The connections should get off the Derby trail with this one, there is no way he could handle that commotion and go 10 furlongs. Try the Bay Shore/Withers combo short term and move forward from there.

The winner I want Revenge was clearly impressive. Mullins was on hand and the horse looked sharp. My impression is that Mullins is a extraordinary trainer that works hard and has all ducks in a row. The colt stepped off the plane and opened up on a highly regarded field, winning for fun. On paper he looked like a stalker but he outgamed many speed horses at their own game and not one horse made up ground on him in the lane. I am going to think long and hard before wagering against this horse in the Wood Memorial.

The horse to watch is the place finisher. Imperial Council rated at the back of the pack while on the stretchout. I always discount closers stretching out from sprints to a route, the added distance almost always dulls the late move. Instead of dulling the late move, Imperial Council almost passed the entire field in the lane on a track where few could make up ground, especially in route races. There was not one closing move on the entire day in a route race that could come anything close to what Imperial Council did. This horse has room for improvement and Shug is taking his time. Could be peaking right around the first Saturday in May.