No Big Shoes to Fill Here

The past ten years have not been kind to the winners of the Kentucky Derby. The last great horse to win this race was Silver Charm with seven graded stakes victories following his triple crown season and his greatest racing accomplishment being a victory in the $4 million Dubai World Cup.

2001, Monarchos

Only three starts after the Derby (two of which were in the triple crown) and was defeated by a combined 29 ¼ lengths in those starts.

2002, War Emblem

One for three after the triple crown bid, his lone win coming against three year olds in the Haskell. His two losses against older competition in the Pacific Classic and the Breeders’ Cup Classic

2003, Funny Cide

Probably the most accomplished of the bunch. He won the 2004 Jockey Club Gold Cup and a few other races in his seasons following the Derby win and Triple Crown bid.

2004, Smarty Jones

Raced twice after the Derby and had his Triple Crown attempt was thwarted in the final yards of the 2004 Belmont Stakes. Was retired before the Breeders’ Cup with soundness issues.

2005, Giacomo

Following two distant finishes in the Preakness and Belmont; Giacomo went one for six with a win at four years old in the San Diego Handicap.

2006, Barbaro

Was catastrophically injured during the running of the Preakness Stakes. He showed great potential before the injury and is in the same league with Ruffian in the “what might have been” category.

2007, Street Sense

Won the Jim Dandy and Travers after his narrow defeat to the great Curlin in the Preakness. Managed to get four starts in before going to stud at three with 2-1-0 record out of four starts. He ended his career with two losses though, a second to Hard Spun in the now defunct Kentucky Cup Classic and a distant fourth to Curlin in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

2008, Big Brown

After a record setting loss by any horse attempting the Triple Crown, he went on to win two races at Monmouth (one of them being the Haskell) and was retired after a recurring hoof injury reared its ugly head.

2009, Mine That Bird

Managed to do better in the Triple Crown series than his upset counterpart from 2005 with a second in the Preakness and a third in the Belmont with a combined margin of defeat of four lengths. Was winless for the rest of his career and retired at the end of 2010

2010, Super Saver

Tried hard to match Monarchos’ record for Derby futility in a record amount of time with three losses following his moment of glory at Churchill. Super Saver far back at Baltimore, blown away by Lookin at Lucky again in the Haskell, and was tenth in the Travers. If you ever needed a shining example of a flash in the pan, this is it.

Graham Motion trains this year’s Derby victor and he can stretch out a horse’s peak form for quite a while. Just from a first impression it looks like Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man are probably the two most likely horses who can parlay their Derby performances into Preakness triumphs. Not a lot else looked impressive out of the other 17 runners that crossed the finish line. Shackleford may be at his best going a mile to 1 1/8 miles as he hit the wall inside the 1/8 pole. Shackleford will likely take a lot of monetary support if he goes in the second leg. Otherwise, it probably will be prudent to look at the fresh challengers as legitimate threats to take down the Preakness.

Oaks-Derby DD

Kentucky Derby Degraded Handicap

A feature in the Daily Racing Form entries that has been a staple for decades and is now in an experimental run here in an effort to expand the horse racing betting bankrolls of all of our fine readers. Here goes nothing.

8. Dialed In (4/1)

The default Derby favorite after the sudden drop of Uncle Mo's stock, he has shown an impressive closing kick and will likely be leading the charge from the back of the pack.


9. Derby Kitten (30/1)

Ran an impressive race in the Lexington on my pace figures and the main knock on the fact that the field he faced not being good is probably superficial. None of these prep races has produced anything worthy of superstar status.

1. Archarcharch (10/1)

Much like the Zito favorite, he is a dual stakes winner in 2011. He is not getting the same amont of respect due to the fact that both were tote board busting victories. The post is terrible, but he is one that could settle back on the rail and have the shortest path to the winner's circle.

19. Nehro (6/1)

This one is the third choice on the morning line despite not having a stakes win to his name. He is probably going to go off at a short price for this type of spot as well with the kind of closing kick he showed in his two stakes defeats.

11. Master of Hounds (30/1)

Included this high because he is the stranger of the bunch. Aidan O'Brien rarely if ever ships over for the Derby and this one apparently is a horse he thinks can win this race. He ran second in the UAE Derby going 1 3/16 miles, so distance should not be a problem the dirt surface is another issue though.

4. Stay Thristy (20/1)

This one has been under the radar with the presence of his well known neighbor Uncle Mo. His form was flattered when Toby's Corner rebounded from the Gotham defeat to win the Wood Memorial.

15. Midnight Interlude (10/1)

Up until April 9th, not a lot of people had this horse on their radar for the Derby. The defection of a few top stars in Southern California changed that outlook quite a bit. He could be coming into his own at the right time or that was a one race wonder. Either way the 10/1 line seems a bit low.

13. Mucho Macho Man (12/1)

Has shown the ability to rate off the speeds and has been working decently leading up to the Derby, he could be overlooked here and the value is there.

18. Uncle Mo (9/2)

How the mighty have fallen, there is a chance he may not run. Only included on here because he is the lowest in the line of probability in likely winners.

A graded handicap would have all twenty runners listed, but at this point trying to make a case for the other 11 is not an easy task at all. All the ones not mentioned above either have zero form or only positive races on the synthetic surfaces with no other redeemable qualities to speak of. You kind of have to feel sorry for the public handicappers who do the graded handicap and go through this mess on a yearly basis.

Oaks day preview

Derby weekend kicks off with five stakes races and the Oaks on Friday, the first post for Churchill is 10:30 in the morning. The La Troienne (older fillies and mares, route), Edgewood (three year old fillies, grass route), Eight Belles (three year old fillies, sprint), Alysheba (older males, route), American Turf (three year olds, grass route), and the Kentucky Oaks are the stakes races on hand for this day of racing.

La Troienne

Arguably the best race featured on the card with the rematch of the one-two finishers from the Breeders’ Cup Distaff from last year. The rematch of Unrivaled Belle and Blind Luck doesn’t have the same luster that it would back in December or January due to the fact that both have combined for four losses since that November night. Blind Luck contributed with three of those four loses. In two of those loses she was up against a lone leader who controlled the race from start to finish and the most recent loss to long time rival Havre De Grace, who has come into her own in her four year old season with two stakes wins so far.

The three out of the supporting cast that could have a chance at making an impact is Quiet Giant, All Due Respect, and Absinthe Minded. All three also will likely contribute to the pace scenario as well. Quiet Giant ran some big numbers over the winter at Aqueduct although it was against a weaker bunch than at other locales. All Due Respect is exiting from the extremely competitive Gulfstream meet where she ran a big race against Florida bred runners. Three out of her four wins have been against allowance fields in addition to her stakes victory and will need to step up big to win here. Absinthe Minded was part of the Lukas stable that led the Oaklawn meet in wins. A six pound shift in the weights against Blind Luck and a shift to an outside post could make a difference in the outcome here.

The Edgewood

2000 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Perfect Sting is represented here with Smart Sting, who is unbeaten in two starts. The sire of Smart Sting is Smart Strike, this filly is bred to do anything. Sassy’s Dream has shown some decent closing kick in two of his last three on the lawn, if she holds at the 8-1 morning line she will be a decent value play in this race.

The Eight Belles

Fame by association here; Arienza faced top class filly Joyful victory, Pomeroys Pistol was up against R Heat Lightning, and Honey Chile was competing against Turbulent Descent in her latest. Two interesting runners in here are Home Sweet Aspen and Holiday Flare, both are stepping up to graded stakes company after preliminary condition wins. Home Sweet Aspen is coming off a maiden score and has a pedigree geared for speed. Holiday Flare ran fast breaking her maiden and then ran evenly in her allowance score, with Pletcher training this one the odds will probably be depressed.

The Alysheba

Toby’s Corner may not be going in the Derby, but New York stalwart Icabad Crane is entered in this spot. Coming off of back to back state bred triumphs Graham Motion and company are rolling the dice here for the winner’s share of the $300,000 purse. The shipping in from Fair Hill for a race angle is in effect here and it has paid off in the past with some decent prices.

Regal Ransom’s last year may have been a complete wash with three poor finishes in three stakes race, but he comes in to this race with some foundation. His first start of the year was at Gulfstream in a sprint stakes race against Capt. Candyman Can, a multiple time stakes winner. In that race Regal Ransom broke from the rail, was behind the eight ball the whole way, and just missed for the win.

The Kentucky Oaks

The jewel in the crown of the Friday card. Joyful Victory has reeled off two dominant wins at Oaklawn since the layoff from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Lilacs and Lace wired the Ashland field at 48-1 and now has to prove she can run on dirt. If Kathmanblu had won the Ashland more than likely she would be an overwhelming favorite here, she could be had at a price here off of that defeat. Zazu was in the Santa Anita Oaks, which had Turbulent Descent win her next start at Keeneland and the race was running identical fractions to the Santa Anita Handicap on the same day. Plum Pretty won by 25 lengths in her recent outing at Sunland Park upstaging her male counterparts that ran in the Sunland Derby. Much like the American Turf Stakes, this race is wide open. There is double wagering on the last two stakes races and a longshot in either or both would make for a nice cap off to the day.

Let the insanity begin

Derby week is upon us, it is a cornucopia of the good and the bad encompassed in one weekend at Churchill. It used to be that the Kentucky Derby and the other Triple Crown events were the definitive weekends in the sport. With advent of simulcast racing and multi-million dollar purse days at racetracks, the Triple Crown has lost some impact as the center of the racing universe. One thing remains certain though, the Derby is still the best known and heaviest bet race on the calendar year with the exception of a Triple Crown bid and the two dollar souvenir ticket bonanza that happens that day at Belmont Park.


The Bad

Despite the fact there is 12 to 13 races on a Derby card, the only race that is remembered is the main event. Despite the fact there has been some decent horse that have competed on that weekend, last year Rachel Alexandra was in an all out stretch duel with the eventual Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Unrivaled Belle. In 2004 reigning horse of the year Azeri was on the Derby undercard as well and was also in an all stretch duel and was defeated at short odds. The undercards of the Oaks and Derby get lost in the shuffle, yet they are always loaded with talent that end up going places later in they year. It is frustrating, because of the fact if the public got familiar with the divisions other than the three-year-old group maybe there would be increased interest in the sport. Maybe with the NBC affiliates picking up the races leading up to the big race there could be some prolonged interest in the sport outside of the big days.

Some call the infield of Churchill the biggest party of the year, it looks more like people that are there just to get drunk and don’t follow the races to me. When ESPN used to do the follow up coverage to the Derby, they would send a reporter (usually in their 20’s and a female) to the infield for what could be described best as small talk with really drunk people. It is actually a bit of surprise that the reporter was never treated like the one that was abused in Egypt during the revolution, even with the influence of alcohol. It would be nice to see the racing coverage divert to the races on hand and not the frat house guy who can down a 30 case of Natty Ice or the celebrities on hand who wouldn’t know Seattle Slew from Zippy Chippy. It would be nice to see this happen, but it is highly unlikely.

The Good

Look at all that good racing, it makes you feel cheated doesn’t it? Yes, after enduring months of $7,500 non winners of two lifetime claimers and racing cards with five state bred maiden claimers you the horseplayer get an overload of high quality races with juiced up pools. Churchill has twelve graded stakes races with varying divisions on tap over the course of two days and as many wagering pools as the mind can dream of. Be warned though, the letdown from these types of days is tremendous. It is like taking a vacation from work and having to come back to work on Monday when you look at the Sunday card at Belmont following the two big days at Churchill.

This is the only time of the year it is considered all right to drink mint juleps. That sticky sweet concoction using bourbon and mint leaves is considered a really bad drink 364 days of the year and this is the one day can drink it without getting a weird look from your bartender or the patrons at the bar. Maker’s Mark produces a blend of their bourbon that is mint julep flavored, finding it is near impossible in NY, because no one in their right mind would drink this on any other day than the first Saturday in May.

Durkin Out as Triple Crown Announcer

Race-caller Tom Durkin has stepped down from his triple crown announcing gig. It was a decision that Durkin considered for months. "It’s a tough professional decision, but a great personal one." For the horse racing nation this a tough pill to swallow. Durkin carries around a book with thousands of phrases - it is this dedication and hard work that turns talent into brilliance. If I hear scintillating one more time at the Breeders Cup I am going to have to personally fed-ex a Roget's thesaurus to California. A triple crown replacement has already been named for Durkin; Larry Collmus of Suffolk Down/Monmouth/Gulfstream fame has been tabbed.

This move from Durkin to Collmus is a huge step down. We go from the Tom "Cadillac" Durkin to Larry "Honda Accord" Collmus. Like the Honda Accord Larry is a reliable sort but unfortunately both the Accord and Larry are forgettable. Larry lacks the ability to convey any sort of drama like Tom Durkin can. Collmus is not a bad caller -he is actually one of the best -but he has the unfortunate fate of following the greatest announcer since the invention of the microphone.

Tom Durkin has a background in theater; there is not one racecaller in the country that can project the drama of the race into his racecall like Durkin can. Others can scream, they can yell, or they can recite their fill in the blank racecalls but nobody can get close to the variety and feel for the moment that Tom Durkin brought to big-event racing. Tom is in a class by himself and will be missed by many.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Archarcharch

First Impression: He put in a good run to capture a pivotal race leading up to the Derby.

The case for this horse winning the Derby: It looks like the Derby has a good amount of speed that is going to go in here, this one has shown an ability to lay off the lead and make a late bid past some tiring front runners. He has a pair of stakes wins this year, which was not done by many up to this point.

The case against: The saying, “If you missed the wedding, don’t show up for the funeral” could very well apply to this one. His two stakes wins were high-octane payouts and off a high profile win he will likely attract a bit of support.

Since Smarty Jones won the Arkansas Derby back in 2004, this race has been a “hot race” for Derby or high profile stakes winners. Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, and Super Saver used this race for bigger and better things. Derby prep races are a fickle bunch. The Wood Memorial went nearly two decades from Pleasant Colony to Fusaichi Pegasus with horses unsuccessfully using this race to launch their run at the roses.

Location of the last prep races as a handicapping angle is at best a trivial angle, more importantly it is the extenuating circumstances surrounding the last race. Last year Super Saver ran on a conveyer belt surface and it toughened him up for his Derby run. In 2008 Big Brown circled a field from post 12 at Gulfstream en route to Louisville. The point being it is not where they race, it is how much they get out of the effort. With that being said, this son of Arch has shown a dimension that gives him an edge over his front running competition.

Kentucky Derby Top Three

Why fiddle with ten or twelve horses when you can narrow down the winner of the Kentucky Derby to three horses. With so many flops this year and with a uninspiring decline in competition it was easier to separate the cream from the milk. Racing was just awful all winter in New York -it usually is- below par in Arkansas and putrid in former derby breeding ground California. Louisiana had a good meet at the Fairgrounds. The only strong racing in the country was the grand restoration that occurred at the Gulfstream meet. They had a banner meet there this year and produced two of our three contenders with all three spending time in South Florida.

3 - Mucho Macho Man - This guy has nice rating speed and has been training up a storm. Horse is game and is trained by real people and not a corporate drug store. Last work was 7 furlongs in 123 and change. There is something to root for here- trainer Kathy Ritvo is a heart transplant recipient and owners have faith in God. When jockey Eibar Coa was injured days before Mucho Macho Man's race in the Risen Star Stakes

"When they flew back to Florida, Dean went immediately to the hospital, where he presented Coa with a check for $18,000, matching the winning cut for the jockey of record in the Risen Star.

"Had Eibar been there, he could have ridden him to victory, too," Dean said. "We paid him as if he'd been on the horse.""

These are people I can root for and and I hope God has a nice surprise planned for them the first Saturday in May.

2 - Soldat - This is a big rangy colt that has proven that he can run on grass, dirt and slop. Horses that can run on any surface are just flat out talented. He was able to take down the Holy Bull which was a strong prep race at Gulfstream. His team of connections is strong with Kiaran McLaughlin calling the shots and Alan Garcia handling the reins. Distance should be no issue and if you can excuse his last race as a training lesson there is value here as well.


1- Dialed in - This guy is the likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby and it is deserved. Initially I thought we were dealing with Ice Box part two here but since then I have done an about face on this colt. He is a strong closer, has worked out his lead changing issues and is being handled by two masters in Zito and Leparoux. The trainer provides the derby mastery and the Leparoux knows Churchill better than anyone - even Borel. Dialed In emerges as the king out of the tough Gulfstream Park meet. This is like a boxer emerging out of Philly or a handball player that is tops in Coney Island. This guy is going to be closing in the derby and will be very hard to keep im out of the frame. The one to fear at a short price.

The Elusive Triple Crown

Since Affirmed crossed the finish line ahead of Alydar back in 1978 there hasn’t been a sweep of the Triple Crown. That may have been the pinnacle of this treasured series. The year after there was Spectacular Bid who was presumed to have no peers able to defeat him. A safety pin, a bad ride, or a combination of both did in the infallible Spectacular Bid. There have been great thoroughbreds that have fallen short of the grand prize since then; Alysheba, Sunday Silence, and Silver Charm come to mind.

Another Triple Crown may just not be in cards. There has been numerous horses who have won two out of three in the series only to fall short in one of the legs based either on a bad trip in the Derby or losing a close finish in the Preakness. The Kentucky this year will be a 20-horse mess as it has been for the last decade or so. The Preakness usually exposes a weak Derby winner or vindication for a Derby favorite that endured a poor trip and the Belmont is a dirt marathon that trainers have forgotten how to train for.

From 1997 to 1999 there were three chances at racing’s crown jewel; Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Charismatic fell a combined 2 ¼ lengths short in the Belmont. Not counting the 2004 bid of Smarty Jones or the 2008 attempt by Big Brown, this time period of the drought was probably the best chance at seeing the sweep.

In 1997 Silver Charm was in a thirteen horse Derby field, which by 2011 standards seems like a small field for this race. Silver Charm had all but one of his main rivals in his crosshairs for the first mile of this race and passed them by the eighth pole and held off a hard charging Captain Bodgit. The Preakness that year was one for the ages, a three-horse charge to the line with Silver Charm digging in and defeating his southern California rival Free House and gamely denying Captain Bodgit. Touch Gold had a rough start and an overall bad trip, but finished a solid fourth not far behind the top three. The last leg was the one that did Silver Charm in. After battling Free House throughout the whole series he put away the rival gray and could not hold off the late charge of Touch Gold, who had an incident free trip around the Belmont oval.

Real Quiet was the lesser known half of the Baffert duo that made their way to Louisville in 1998, Indian Charlie was the favorite off his prosperous winter in California. Real Quiet put away his better known counterpart by mid stretch and held off Victory Gallop. The Preakness changed shape with the scratch of Coronado’s Quest, a talented but temperamental colt that skipped the Derby to avoid the circus atmosphere of the big race. Coronado’s Quest was the morning line favorite for the Preakness. Real Quiet won the race by two lengths over Victory Gallop, they both moved at the same time leaving the backstretch and going into the final turn. The 1998 Belmont is one of the better known renewals of this race. Desormeaux moved Real Quiet early and at one point Desormeaux had the colt in front by six lengths. Victory Gallop, piloted by Gary Stevens waited a little bit longer to make a bid for the win and it paid off with one of the closest finishes seen to decide the Triple Crown since the 1978 series.

Charismatic was a rags to riches story, available for a claim twice and won the first of many crowded Derby fields that had 19 horses with a clean trip while his counterparts had rough trips and lots of excuses going to Baltimore. Charismatic’s 31-1 upset did little to scare off the competition with a full field signed on to challenge with one notable scratch. Silverbulletday was entered and withdrawn after getting the wide 13 post, she won the Black Eyed Susan a day before the main event. Charismatic won by 1 ½ lengths over Menifee who was second to Charismatic in the Derby as well. With nine starts to that point in the year, a total of 16 races in his short career, and a stamina pedigree it seemed like he stood just as good a chance as the last two to win it all. Silverbulletday was entered in the Belmont Stakes and was the pace setter with Charismatic a close second before assuming the lead on the far turn and failing to hold off the charge of a pair of longshots, Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse.

A triple crown winner has been sought after since the glory days of the 70’s when there were three in one decade, those three are still revered as the some of the greatest to ever set foot on a racetrack. The desire to see a horse pull the hat trick has caused the public and media to latch onto horses that for some reason or another just couldn’t pull the feat off. Big Brown had a bad hoof going into the Triple Crown and it was exposed at the wrong time, Smarty Jones was a victim of his success with jockeys putting a big bull’s eye on Stewart Elliot’s back, and Funny Cide had to deal with a rejuvenated Empire Maker.

The chances of seeing a Triple Crown winner ranks up there with losing with a straight flush in poker. Trainers have a different mindset from their counterparts from thirty to forty years ago and horses have less stamina in their pedigree than three decades ago thanks to farms breeding for speed and juvenile brilliance. If a horse does sweep these races in the near future it may be a bigger accomplishment than it was 33 years ago because of the last two statements, although the chances of it actually happening are slim.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Uncle Mo

Nickname: Mr. Softee

First Impression: He certainly looks exposed after that Wood Memorial.

The case for this horse winning the Derby: His last race was just a speed bump and the loss will toughen him up

The case against: He probably has some distance limitations like Favorite Trick did. He hasn’t had a tough work schedule since his Breeders’ Cup win. Other top prospects have been solidifying their postions while Mo was vacationing at Palm Meadows.

Thanks Pletcher, nice training job. If a heavy favorite loses it should finish off the board, not a meager third saving the bridge jumpers from an embarrassing loss. In addition to that Uncle Mo losing destroyed the pick fours and pick sixes that had him singled. Imagine being alive in a pick six that started with 8/1 and 6/1 winners and having what looks like a mortal lock as the single. It feels good, right? The 1/10 shot runs like a 10/1 plug, not such a great feeling anymore. The pick six players had to have played those tickets off site, because the lack of property damage and no rioting at Aqueduct after that loss with so much money riding on one horse is astounding. There has been rioting at Yonkers Raceway for less.

For selfish reasons I wanted to see Uncle Mo win the Wood. Not because I had any money on him, but for the reason that it would be a nice finish to this series. It is like a writer at Game 6 of the 1986 World Series cheering for the Red Sox to win for the reason that the article they wrote was completed; a change in the outcome will cause massive changes close to a deadline. Instead of a strong finish to this series now it will limp to the finish line like Uncle Mo, thanks Pletcher.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Stay Thirsty

First Impression: His Florida Derby was nothing great, but he beat the Wood Memorial winner in the Gotham.

The case for this horse winning the Derby: There has been a long and storied history of lesser known stable-mates outrunning their more famous counterparts in the Derby. Real Quiet won instead of Indian Charlie, Thunder Gulch was victorious over Timber Country, and Sir Barton got to the wire first instead of Billy Kelly. Who am I kidding, instead of beating around the bush on this one I might as well come out and say it. BET THE HOME EQUITY LOAN ON THIS ONE, HAVE WE NOT SEEN THIS OUTCOME BEFORE? LOOK ABOVE, THAT IS THE BEST HISTORY STATISTIC YOU WILL SEE LEADING TO THIS DERBY. DOSAGE? MORE LIKE NODOZ, THE ABOVE STATISTIC IS ONE THAT YOU CAN TURN INTO YOUR OWN PERSONAL ATM.

The case against: Only two races with his most recent being a poor showing and got his season started in early March, sounds slightly familiar.

The winner of the Gotham as not had a great recent history at all. Awesome Act was the “wise guy” horse in the Derby last year and that did not end well. I Want Revenge won the Wood Memorial and hasn’t been the same since his injury leading up to the Derby. The last horse that went on to any significance after their win in the Gotham was Red Bullet back in 2000, when he stunned the racing world by defeating Fusaichi Pegasus in the Preakness. Stay Thristy looked good in his layoff comeback victory with his first victory around two turns and shaking off the rust of a long break. Third off the layoff with some foundation and the recent poor effort will certainly offer some value.

No Mo

In his last prep for the 2011 Kentucky Derby did not look the part of being an invincible running machine. Most of the talk up in the Manhattan Terrace was "how good is this horse" and "the only hard test for this will be the Belmont Stakes". It appears now that this horse is just as good as his competition and the hard test for this horse will probably be his subsequent starts against the rest of his generation.

Great horses lose, Native Dancer lost his Derby by a decreasing margin and Seattle Slew was defeated after a superb effort in the 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup. A great horse may lose, but most of the time they still hold that look that they were still much the best in defeat. The way Uncle Mo lost did not give that impression at all, he got to an early lead where John Velazquez controlled the early tempo and saw his margin in front diminish steadily through the duration of the stretch run.

The last time a juvenile champion ran in the Wood Memorial was 2008, War Pass was coming off of a poor effort in his seasonal debut in March at the Tampa Bay Derby. He led the pack until inside the eighth pole only to succumb to Tale of Ekati. The parallels between War Pass and Uncle Mo have been uncanny as well. Both ran big races in the Champagne and Juvenile, both waited until March for their first start of the year, and both looked underwhelming in those starts.

Usually the case with these types of horses is they are checked on by a veterinarian or go through x-rays and find something wrong or amiss. They are then quickly retired and there is a stud deal quickly reached. It is cynical, but that seems to happen more often than not. The next four weeks have gotten a little bit more interesting with the recent downfall of the divisional champion.

Scenes from the Big A: The Wood Memorial

The main event of the spring Aqueduct meet is the Wood Memorial, this year the storyline was that this was the prep for the probable Derby favorite Uncle Mo. Uncle Mo went from probable favorite to one of many contenders for sought after prize in about one minute and fifty one seconds.






NYRA or the concession company that works with NYRA had a drink special that was called the Uncle Mojito, more than likely this will be the only time you see this drink special offered after today's performance.



With a an upset like this you figure some fans would take this loss a bit harder than others based on their financial stake in the outcome or other reasons than that. Apparently one fan had a lot riding on Uncle Mo on Saturday.

Aqueduct Saturday Stakes Racing Preview

This weekend marks two milestones in the year that signify that spring is here, Keeneland runs its April meet loaded with stakes action and the return of grade one racing to New York. Keeneland has gone from a massive speed favoring dirt surface and closer friendly turf course to a racecourse with a pair of surfaces that tend to lean towards horses that have closer tendencies. That being said, it does make handicapping that meet easier, just avoid 90% of the card and play the featured race of the day.

Comely Stakes

This race was moved from a week past the Wood Memorial to the day of the Wood. Ruffian and a few other Hall of Fame fillies have won this race. It is now a grade three that annually features a variation of Florida shippers that have had minor stakes or allowance victories before shipping up and the grizzled runners that have wintered in New York.

Royal Sighting broke her maiden by twelve last out and is immediately stepped into a stakes race. This horse had an unusual path to the winners’ circle in her most recent start. Patrick Kelly’s horses usually drop back early and make a sustained bid in the later stages of the race, Evening Attire did this and so did Naughty New Yorker. Royal Sighting went immediately to the lead and never looked back, in previous starts she was fifth or further back in the early stages before trying to make a run.

Bay Shore Stakes

This race used to be a stepping stone towards the Wood Memorial. Secretariat won this race in his three year old debut and then went on to the Gotham and the Wood Memorial before Triple Crown immortality. Other notable winners of this event are Lost in the Fog, Gulch, Bold Forbes, and Damascus. That is quite a roll call for a race that is a purse downgrade from being a listed stakes race.

J J’s Lucky Train tried his luck at the two turn stakes races at Aqueduct in January and February with a pair of second place finishes. He won a seven furlong race at Laurel on February 26th where he dueled all the whole way with Bandbox, who went on to win the Miracle Wood Stakes in March at Laurel.

Steve Assmussen won this race with J Be K in 2008 after a poor showing at Fair Grounds. This year Justin Phillip is Assmussen’s entry and he had a weak showing in two stakes down in the bayou. Justin Phillip is going to have to be at his best to win from the rail with other speeds lined up outside of him though.

Carter Handicap

The first half of the Repole double is entered here with Calibrachoa, I set the over/under on that double at six dollars on a two dollar wager. Have You Ever is once again entered as a rabbit to ensure a quick pace for his stable-mate. Apriority probably will take a lot of action here as well, he had a monster race last out running three seconds faster than the average time for the distance. Morning Line has had some tough luck in recent starts with second place finishes in the Donn Handicap and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile after doing much of the grunt work on the front end. From the looks of it, this race will have a swift early pace.

Wood Memorial


Uncle Mo will probably go off 1/9 here. In terms of value when betting on favorites, there is next to none. With a horse like Uncle Mo, getting 3/5 would be a mixed blessing. Getting sixty cents on the dollar on a horse that usually goes off insanely short and has yet to taste defeat means that you are getting a slight edge on the pari-mutuel competition. On the negative side it also could be a foreboding sign of a negative outcome, so you see why betting favorites is a difficult proposition.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Dialed In

Nickname: Ice Box Jr.

First Impression: A deep closing three years old colt trained by Zito, this seems familiar.

The case for this horse winning the Derby: Usually the pace of the Derby is extremely fast and horses who come off the pace fare well in this type of scenario.

Case Against: The same tactics that give Ice Box an edge over his front running rivals also could work against him. The Derby has more traffic tie ups than midtown Manhattan during the afternoon.

Zito once again has a Derby runner after being prominent, but not winning any of the three spring classics last year. This one is probably better than the contemporary that he mirrors, Ice Box. Last year Ice Box went into the Derby with maiden and an upset win in the Florida Derby. Dialed In has three decent efforts to his name this year and a start at two for some classic foundation.

If Uncle Mo doesn’t make the race he could end up being the favorite. If the juvenile champ does run, then Dialed In will probably be one of the commonly used alternatives to Uncle Mo. The key with the closer types is the works leading up to the race. If a closer shows bullets or fast works leading up to a race, the horse is ready to run a big one.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Twice the Appeal

First Impression: Didn’t Mine That Bird run in the Sunland Derby race two years ago?

The case for this horse winning the Derby: That last two dollars in my wallet won’t spend itself.

Case against: This race consisted of third stringers and Astrology coming off a November layoff.

The Sunland Derby is on par with the Delta Downs Jackpot as a grade three cash grab to secure a spot in the most famous race on the calendar year for racing. Usually around this time of the year there is a call for reform to the entry system for the Derby, it is usually made by people who want to see a certain horse entered with the though that the gate is not complete without that particular horse entered. Eddington comes to mind for this example.

Last year Drosselmeyer’s fans were bristled by the fact that he did not have sufficient earnings to make the field, tough luck. At this time of the year it is about survival of the fittest, chances are that if you don’t have the dough you missed a chance or two to make up the ground on rivals in the earnings department. In addition to that, there is a field limit of twenty so there are plenty of spots available.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Pants On Fire

First Impression: Where did that last race come from?

The case for this horse winning the Derby: This prep race is so overdue for a winner.

Case against: He got away with an easy cadence tracking an astronomical longshot early on and just had enough left in the tank to hold off a recent maiden winner Nehro. The favorite, Mucho Macho Man had a wide trip and faltered late. The highly touted Elite Alex was marooned in post 12 after scratching out a week earlier in the Rebel because of a bad post draw.


The intrepid eleven winners of the Louisiana Derby who have attempted the Derby (1997-2010): Mission Impazzible, Fresian Fire, Pyro, Circular Quay, High Limit, Wimbledon, Peace Rules, Fifty Stars, Kimberlite Pipe, Comic Strip, Crypto Star.

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!

After Uncle Mo’s rousing comeback to the races this last Saturday at Gulfstream Park, Repole Stable and the soft serve ice cream giant Mr. Softee have reached an agreement to do a cross promotion in the upcoming months. Much like the one that IEAH Stable and UPS had during Big Brown’s vaunted attempt at the elusive Triple Crown. When Mr. Softee representatives were reached for comment they said, ”We are very proud of signing an agreement with a group of sports owners that exemplify a great soft schedule en route to a big event, much like our great soft serve frozen treats.”

Team Repole's meeting with the Mr. Softee people. Not pitcured, a man with an ice cream cone for a head.

Here at Powercap, we pride ourselves on getting the inside scoop on these sorts of stories and we have an early draft design of the Uncle Mo Mr. Softee truck.

Kentucky Derby Failure Five, Round Two

The first edition of the failure five saw two of the five horses mentioned drop off the pathway, Boys at Toscanova and Tapizar. Tapizar ran poorly in the Bob Lewis Stakes and an injury was found shortly after the race, Boys at Toscanova was not training well and was removed from consideration due to this. In light of this, it is time to update the list.

1. Uncle Mo

The Derby Futures morning line favorite among the entries listed and there is not much to report on this one. Gulfstream Park wrote a race up around the same time as the Tampa Bay Derby in hopes of luring this horse away from Tampa Bay Downs. I’m sure this glorified allowance race will not fill though.

2. To Honor and Serve

The three-year-old debut of this horse will be this Saturday in the Fountain of Youth Stakes; this race produced Eskendereya last year. In related news, Belmont Stakes ticket applications are being accepted now. The only reason this is relative is the fact that for a horse to win the Triple Crown he has to have experience over the Belmont oval, To Honor and Serve has that going for him and the connections go a long way as well. With that being said he will probably either miss the Derby completely or be a tough luck loser in the first leg and run the table in the last two legs. That seems to be the way things go in this sport.

3. Dialed In

There seems to be a recurring theme with this group of three-year-olds, it is that they don’t race much. The top two are still working out and this one will skip a showdown with To Honor and Serve to train up to the Florida Derby. It should be noted that this horse was the co-second choice on the morning line with To Honor and Serve in the futures pool with only two starts to his name. This horse is set up to fall short with this type of schedule, if everything goes according to plan he would make it to the Derby with only three starts and a running style that requires a perfect trip in order to win. Curlin was one of the better horses to compete in the last twenty or so years and he could not pull off a Derby victory with a light schedule leading up to the race, how could this horse be any different?

4. Mucho Macho Man

An old angle that has worked almost every winter and spring with the three-year-olds has been that if a trainer ships a horse out of their home base, the horse will be a force to be reckoned with. It struck again this weekend when Mucho Macho Man shipped to Fair Grounds and beat a wide-open field in the Risen Star. Chances are this horse will train in Florida and race again in the Louisiana Derby. Using Fair Grounds as a springboard to the Kentucky Derby has not been a successful route. The last horse to win the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby was Grindstone back in 1996.

5. The Factor

One California speedball gets knocked out of the frame only to get replaced by another. Baffert has not stated that he is aiming this one for the big dance, but seeing how it is a three-year-old trained by Baffert it is a safe bet he will take a shot at this with a race going two turns in the near future. Two races Baffert cited the Sunland Derby or the Rebel Stakes as possible next starts.

Kentucky Derby Failure Five

Almost every racing website has a columnist or two that ranks the Derby hopefuls leading up to the event. This is our attempt to capitalize on the trend not by saying the ranked horses are the best of the group, but by saying they will somehow defect out of the Kentucky Derby or fall short of expectations.

1. Uncle Mo

The champion juvenile and winter book favorite for the big race. Pletcher is waiting until March to start this one in the Tampa Bay Derby, the last two year old champ to do that was War Pass. There are other parallels with War Pass and Uncle Mo as well, both completed the Champagne-Juvenile sweep and both seem to have the same career trajectory. War Pass was lightly raced at two with only four starts on his record and Uncle Mo went to post three times last year. More good news for Uncle Mo’s backers too, the last three Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners did not make it to the Derby.

2. To Honor and Serve

The Remsen to Kentucky path has not been one of success since Thunder Gulch pulled off the trick in 1994. Old Fashioned, Rockport Harbor, and Buddy’s Saint went into their three year old campaigns as hot horses for the Derby only to be sidelined before the main event took place. The runner-up in the Remsen, Mucho Macho Man returned to service in the Holy Bull only to gets his doors blown off by Dialed In as well.

3. Boys At Tosconova

This horse was intended to make his debut this weekend in the Holy Bull, but that was called off because Dutrow did not like how his horse looked going into the race. Probably a wise move on the part of Dutrow, not a good sign for a three year old early in the season though. The pedigree on this one seems to be a bit of a wash, Officer is the sire which probably means that nine furlongs is his limit and Coronado’s Quest is on the dam’s side of the pedigree, which is a decent stamina influence. This horse is a question mark with four legs. Also of note on this horse:


At Horse Racing Nation they are advertising Uncle Mo merchandise on the page of Boys At Toscanova, not a lot of respect being doled out for this horse.

4. Dialed In

A Kentucky Derby prep season without Zito is something that doesn’t happen often. His whole stable is centered on having horses entered in the three year old classics and when that doesn’t happen his year is kind of shot. Had fun losing money on Ice Box in the Derby and Belmont last year? Well this is your chance to get more of the same punishment, this horse has the same type of running style as Ice Box and got a win earlier in the season at Gulfstream than Ice Box did. Andrew Beyer also penned that if this horse won the Holy Bull that it would make the prep season much more interesting. Beyer was right on something, that may be a sign of the apocalypse.

5. Tapizar

Not only included here to defeat all claims of having an east coast bias, but also because this is the first three year old in a long time that I think may turn into something special. Twice now he has outrun other stakes horses on final time, on November 27 his maiden victory was faster than the two mile and a sixteenth stakes races that took place and his win last out was faster than a stakes race for four year olds on the same day.

So you may be asking me why is he on a list filled with horses that you think may be flops and fizzle out of the picture for the Kentucky Derby? Because the last horse I had this type of notion on was Repent, he got injured after finishing second to War Emblem in the 2002 Illinois Derby and lost subsequent starts in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup.