Grace Under Pressure

The last Saturday at Saratoga featured three grade one races, all with varying degrees of importance now that the calender has turned to September. The highlight of the day being Havre De Grace's attempt at beating the older colts.


The Personal Ensign was rescheduled from August 27th to this Saturday due to inclement weather. It didn't make a difference to Ask The Moon, who swept the distaff races at Saratoga with a wire to wire win. With the older filly division depleted beyond the top two (Blind Luck and Havre De Grace) and the three year old females yet to take on their elders, it should be an interesting set of fall races.


Jackson Bend spent last year chasing some of the better runners of his generation with nothing to show for it other than a few tough beats. What a difference a year makes, the sprint division is anyone's for the taking and his win in the Forego puts him squarely in the lead group of contenders for champion sprinter. The last few seasons the Forego has served as a highly important race earmarked by Midnight Lute and Big Drama winning the Breeders' Cup Sprint after a start in the Forego.


Rachel Alexandra used the Woodward as the end to a perfect season and Horse of the Year honors, this year Havre De Grace is trying the same path to the eclipse awards. Tracking Rule most of the way and being asked for run during the stretch when needed she was an authoritative winner. The race in all likelihood did not take as much energy out of the victor as it did Rachel Alexandra two years ago, Rachel was on the lead the whole way and had to fight off a few late challengers in order to stay perfect for the year. Havre De Grace avoided any dirt in the face and took a wide trip sweeping by Rule with ease, there is probably enough left in the proverbial tank for one more race before the end of the year. The prospectus of the colts and geldings aiming for the classic is not an imposing bunch, so it may be worth it for Havre De Grace to take another shot at the males in the Breeders' Cup Classic. She has already showed an ability to go the distance and that is half the battle in the Classic.

End of the season shuffle

Another grade one race for three year old colts and yet another winner to join the crowded club for 2011. With the Travers having the distinction of being the last grade one on the books exclusively for the sophomore class and no one creating some distance from the competition, it will be a mad scramble to the end of the year to decide the championships. In this case chaos is good. Uncle Mo did not win the King’s Bishop and if anything may be back for a shot at redemption at four years old, seeing how his three-year-old season has turned into a wash. Shackleford was less than a length away from clinching the division title back on July 31st and now is back in a tie with the rest of the division. Stay Thristy is the resurgent force of the division with two recent wins and was a close second in the Belmont. With the magic number set at two grade one wins, the whole lot is stuck at one.

The parity trend is not isolated to the three-year-old males, the filly counterparts went from a division that was It’s Tricky’s to capture back into a group that any able bodied filly can win if they get on a hot streak. Turbulent Descent probably benefits the most from last week’s upheaval, as she is a multiple graded stakes winner this year. She may only need the rest of the division to trade off victories or loses to the older fillies in the fall stakes races and a Breeders’ Cup win in order to clinch. It’s Tricky remains closer to the honors than the rest of the fillies and a win against older fillies would likely grab the title.

Tizway is the default leader of the older males with wins in the Met Mile and Whitney, one more grade one and he gets the trophy with little resistance. The rest of the elder colts and geldings in that group are a jumbled mess and wins by a combination of any of them probably won’t do much to uproot the current leader.

The horse of the year championship is a four-way race at this point. Cape Blanco has two major victories stateside and a third one could get him the nod. Tizway will probably need one or two more major victories. Then there is the predicament of Havre De Grace and Blind Luck.

These two fillies have faced off against each other throughout various points in the past two years and have traded decisions with a narrow margin of victory almost every time. Havre De Grace is on target for the Woodward this upcoming Saturday at Saratoga and Havre De Grace has two races left on the schedule for the remainder of the season. If Havre De Grace wins against the males and it is a taxing effort like the one Rachel Alexandra put forth in her conquest of this race the important question is do you put her away for the year or squeeze one more race out of her for the year? Blink Luck could run the table and easily take the Horse of the Year honors away for Havre De Grace.

It is unprecedented that a filly or mare has won the Horse of the Year honors for three straight seasons and it may happen this year with the way the division races have shaped up. While horses trading decisions for the past eight months is not the most thrilling of things to follow throughout the year, it does provide for an interesting finish to a season filled with parity.

A photo finish is worth three words

Where’s the media circus?

It’s Tricky is in a position to sweep a prestigious series of three races that has been a staple of North American racing for the past 54 years, the Triple Tiara. A horse has not swept the three race series since its “classic” configuration back in 1993 when Sky Beauty won the Acorn, Mother Goose, and Coaching Club American Oaks. The list of fillies that have done this feat reads as a veritable all-star team of hall of fame inductees Dark Mirage, Shuvee, Chris Evert, Ruffian, Dovona Dale, Mom’s Command, Open Mind, and Sky Beauty. The question worth asking is why isn’t It’s Tricky getting more mainstream coverage? Any time a male counterpart captures the Derby and Preakness, there is a media circus surrounding the final leg of the Triple Crown.

The short answer to the question above is it’s tricky. The long answer is that in the past eight years they have had three different configurations to the series. 2002 played out the string of 45 years of consistent scheduling for the classic series. In 2003 the Alabama was placed in the set displacing the Acorn and a bonus of two million dollars was put in place for anyone who won all three races, that bonus lasted until 2005 with no one grabbing the brass ring. From 2007 to 2009, the series returned to its original alignment. The most recent incarnation of the series started last year with two out of three of the races being held at Saratoga the Acorn, Coaching Club American Oaks, and Alabama.

The changes made to the series combined with the lack of incentives to run the table has hurt the series. The Triple Tiara starts on the Belmont Stakes day or after it depending on the version you are looking at, not exactly a way that the casual betting public will latch on to the event. On Wikipedia in the Triple Tiara article there is mention of a national racing series for three years old fillies:

“In recent years, many owners and trainers of fillies have submitted proposals to the National Thoroughbred Racing Association to change the three races that compose the Triple Tiara. Although a great deal of prestige is attached to winning one or more of the current Triple Tiara races, all three are held at the same track at Belmont Park in the New York City area, because of this, the series is skewed to fillies that race in the northeast. Some from outside the area even modify the name of the series by calling it the "New York Triple Tiara."

Several options of races have been suggested to compose the "National Triple Tiara." The most popular proposal of races to compose a "Triple Tiara" series are The Kentucky Oaks, run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky; The Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, run at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland; and The Acorn Stakes, run at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. A second proposal has been to use the Kentucky Oaks, the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and the Mother Goose Stakes. This version would allow more time for fillies to recuperate between races. Using the Mother Goose would also allow the NYRA to keep its three races in place as its own series without interfering with the three National races.

These races in the most popular proposal are near equal distance to their Triple Crown counterparts except for the Acorn, which is at a distance of one mile as opposed to the Belmont's mile-and-a-half distance. This series is thought to be a better choice for the Triple Tiara series, seeing that the three races are considered the most popular races for fillies. Each race receives considerable national network coverage, as it is run within 24 hours of the marquee event at each track.”

The idea I have for changing the series would fall under the same type of guise with the Kentucky Oaks leading off and the Mother Goose in the mix. Where I vary is including the Coaching Club American Oaks in the series. Having the Black Eyed Susan would be too close to the Oaks and if the Oaks winner does not win the race in Pimlico, they will likely skip the Acorn or Belmont in preparation for the Saratoga meet. The same could be said for the winner of the Black Eyed Susan going forward. My version of the Series would be the Kentucky Oaks, Mother Goose, and Coaching Club American Oaks with some monetary bonus to any filly that can sweep the series. A bonus to a points leader if at the end of the three races like they used to have with the Chrysler Triple Crown Bonus would be awarded as well. The races would be roughly a month apart and would have a race on Derby weekend and one at Saratoga, plenty of spacing between starts and top notch venues throughout the series; the best of both worlds.

The colts and geldings have the traditional three races in five weeks that captures the attention of the racing and sports public, the fillies should have something like this to showcase the best of their generation. Changing the Triple Crown would be near sacrilege at this point and the money in breeding and seven figure purses are more than enticing to the connections of the three years old colts and geldings participating. The good thing about starting up a three year old filly series now is a clean slate on which you can create a set of races that will have large competitive fields with no excuse outside of injury for all capable fillies to run in.

Grade 1 double dip

The Test and Whitney Stakes are the featured attractions as races nine and ten on the Saturday card. Both have a solid group of runners entered to run and very little in the way of toss out runners. In other words, these are two really good betting races.

Test Stakes

The early pace of the Prioress Stakes back on July 4th was white hot and set up for the likes of Pomeroys Pistol and Her Smile to finish 1-2. Without the likes of Alienation and Quantum Miss entered in here, it could give Roman Treasure the chance to get away to a comfortable early lead.

It goes without saying that the Acorn has developed into a key race, the winner went on to capture the Coaching Club American Oaks and Her Smile won the Prioress off of this race. California invader Turbulent Descent was a sixty five cents on the dollar favorite in this race and will undoubtedly take a lot of money here too. Leaving her out of the various multiple race wagers would be a mistake.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 3
Exacta Box 3/6-7-8
Daily Double (linking races 9 and 10) 3-6/3-4-6-10-11

Whitney Invitational Handicap

The older male division reflects the three year old division, that is to say it is a wide open mess with everyone staking a claim that their steed is the best of the generation. That is why there are 11 runners assembled for the 84th running of this prestigious race won by greats such as Alydar, Personal Ensign, and Easy Goer.

The Stephen Foster already produced one winner in a graded stakes race in NY when Flat Out decimated a field of six in the Suburban. Giant Oak, Mission Impazible, Apart, and Duke of Mischief all exit this race. Mission Impazible was hung wide out of post 11 and up on the early pace throughout only lose by a neck to a longshot. Mission Impazible's best races are the 9 furlong distance, his recent works look good, the connections are hot, and he has tactical speed to sit off the early pace to make a run.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 6
Exacta Box 6/3-4-10-11

Like fine wine

Race 8 on the Monday card is the Amsterdam Stakes. To Honor and Serve is making his comeback after a pair of dull efforts down in Florida before getting derailed from the Derby trail. If he performs decently he is on his way to the Travers, time has not run out on trying claim the three year old championship title. After said dull efforts down at Gulfstream, it hard to play him coming back at the demanding 6 1/2 furlong distance that this race is scheduled to go.

After two good efforts at Saratoga Wine Police was on the shelf from early September to late June. He made his return a winning one over entry level allowance foes at this distance. With only three starts to his name, he has every right to improve.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 3

Sue Me

Last week the Coaching Club American Oaks was the featured stakes race, a transplanted race from the Spring/Summer meet of Belmont. This week the featured transplant race is the Ruffian Invitational Handicap. The former spot for this prestigious race was part of the fall championship meet at Belmont and it replaced the Go For Wand, another race named after an ill fated filly. This race is the ninth race on the card and has a spread open field. It looks like a good spot for a price play.

Tiz Miz Sue ran against the extremely talented Havre De Grace last out down in Deleware only getting two pounds from the big filly. She ran admirably in defeat coming from last in a short field to fall only 2-1/4 lengths short, in the Ruffian she will be carrying only 115 pounds before the program changes. Getting a six pound relief from that last effort make the difference in this competitive field.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 7

Retry

Will's Wildcat was scratched out of the Curlin stakes for a chance at the $500,000 purse of the Jim Dandy, which will go off as race ten of an eleven race card that has two other stakes races carded. This card is loaded with ripe betting opportunities. The Jim Dandy has the second and third place finishers from the Belmont Stakes, the Dwyer winner, and the Peter Pan victor. On the surface this race looks like a tough spot for any outsider; but considering the disarray that the three year old colt division is in, it is a good idea to shop around for a price.

Will's Wildcat has run consistently well on dirt and his turf form only serves to darken that form. His final time on April 30th was 13 lengths faster than par for the distance and his latest performance was fast early and fast late. Scotus seems to be steadily improving and has every right to move forward here. Moonshine Mullin tries dirt for the first time and has posted five works since his June 12th win including a bullet on July 23rd.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 5
Exacta Box 1,4,5

Sunset Action

The Friday card is one of two sunset racing cards scheduled for the meet. There should be more scheduled throughout the year because of a consistent trend of higher attendance and handle, but that is neither here or there. The seventh race is the Curlin Stakes, for three year olds which have not won a graded sweepstakes over a mile. In recent years this restricted race has produced a Travers runner or two, so this race is worth following for that fact alone.

The name horse entered here is Prime Cut, who ran in the Belmont, Peter Pan, and Lexington Stakes. This horse is almost always there and with a record of six out of eight in the money finishes for his career and he has every right to win here. Racing against the speed bias on Belmont Stakes day worked against him as well.

With that being said, Will's Wildcat is worth a look here. He is coming off of two decent performances; he had a wide post, was on the pace, and stayed on until the finish. If he can continue this string of sharp performances he could make some noise here. Turbo Compressor is worth using in the exotics as well after finishing third against Pants On Fire in the Pegasus last out.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 6
Exacta Box 6/2,4

When in doubt, go for the shipper

Zero for four with one scratch so far in picking the feature from the spa, something has got to give here. For the second straight day the stakes race is not the penultimate race on the card, it is the seventh race and it kicks off the pick four. The first leg of the pick four usually is a maiden race, the stakes race kicking off a pick four is a rare occurrence.

Fudgesicle is the Delaware Park invader entered in the Quick Call stakes. In his last four races he has been in front at the first call, the trainer is 61% in the money when saddling a horse for a non graded stakes, and Fudgesicle has finished in the money in all five of his career starts. Considering the fact that the NY based runners entered here have not run all that great on the pace and speed figures, it is worth a shot to take look elsewhere.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 10

Pletcher parade marches on

Race eight is the featured Grade 2 Lake George scheduled for turf and Winter Memories is probably going off the short favorite. Unlike Overdriven on Sunday, this horse can be beat. Celestial Kitten was placed in the Sands Point against Winter Memories and came back to lose as a lukewarm favorite in a listed stakes at the beginning of July. The closing figure on Winter Memories last race came back a length slower than the average for the distance as well.

Pletcher has a live one in here (no surprise there), More Than Real defeated the aforementioned favorite back in November and the connections swung for the fences at the prestigious Ascot meet to no avail. The trainer tries a more conventional spot and she posted a win over the course last year. She may provide some value as a second choice if the chalk players go wild on Winter Memories here.

Wagering Strategy:
Win 6

He's got them right where he wants them

Stormy's Majesty is one for three so far this year heading into the Evan Shipman Stakes, both of his losses coming in the deep end of the pool in the Met Mile and a listed turf stakes race. When this horse faces NY bred company he turns into a beast. Last year at Saratoga he won the Albany over Ibboyee after losing by a wide margin in the Jim Dandy, he bounces back from losses in good order. His main competition up front is Spa City Fever, who is coming off of a flashy performance in the Noble Nashua at Belmont. Get your popcorn ready, this should be a good one.

History repeating itself?

The Sanford is the Sunday featured stakes race and Pletcher will probably sweep the juvenile stakes races this weekend. Overdriven ran a very fast race first out and the rest of the field has run decently, but nothing spectacular. With speed being the dominant force at Saratoga the place to search for a viable longshot for exotics and a possible upset is on the front end.

Back in the 2006 edition of the Sanford Pletcher had the big favorite Scat Daddy. Scat Daddy was put to the test by the maiden entrant Teuflesberg that day. The maiden entrant that looks interesting in this year's running is Moonrush. He has the possibility of getting out early and staying around for the latter part of the running.

Wagering strategy:
Exacta 6/2
Win, Place 2

Redeeming Value

The Coaching Club American Oaks is the feature for the Saturday program and despite not drawing a large field, it is a talented group. Each entrant has won a grade two or better and the longest shot on the morning line is 6-1. Royal Delta is the likely favorite here after a convincing victory in the Black Eyed Susan. In the Black Eyed Susan she had a favorable setup with the pace setter (Hot Summer) stretching out to two turns, the probable pace setter here seems to be a tougher opponent though.

Plum Pretty had two factors going against her last out, a six pound weight shift in favor of Zazu and she was under the weather in the days leading up to the race. Also, she has shown more of an affinity for the dirt surfaces than the Hollywood synthetic surface. When she is on her A game, she is a very fast filly that is hard to catch.

Joyful Victory ran on the same day Plum Pretty did last out and also burnt money that same day. The Jones trained filly had to switch from a ground saving rail trip to a wide move at Belmont in order to get racing room and by the time she was straightened out, the race was over. In the Kentucky Oaks she had a trouble line as well, Joyful Victory showed considerable talent at Oaklawn during the winter and was sent off a 2-1 favorite in The Oaks due to this. She has been in the money in five out of her seven starts, to leave her off any exotic wager with the possibility of her being the longest shot on the board is ludicrous.

Wagering Strategy:

Win 2
Exacta Box 2,3

The heat is on

It’s going to be a scorcher for the Friday opening at Saratoga, that is if they don’t cancel the card. There are two stakes races scheduled, the James Marvin Stakes (Race 8) and the grade three Schuylerville Stakes (Race 9). The James Marvin is for three and up going seven furlongs, it is quite a nice field assembled for a listed stakes race. Jackson Bend, Aikenite (Churhill Downs S. G2 winner), Here Comes Ben (Forego S. G1 winner), D’Funnybone (multiple graded stakes winner), Caixa Electronica (Westchester S. G3 winner), and Jersey Town (Cigar Mile H. G1 winner) are entered for this race. In 2009 Pyro used this race as a stepping stone towards a win in the Forego, chances are good that a few horses entered here will run next out in the Forego.

Caixa Electronica ran an incredibly fast race early and late en route to a victory two back in the Westchester. Other than that big effort, he has run lights out against allowance fields and average against stakes company. With the Pletcher-Repole Stable connections he is sure to take his fair share of action, it probably is worthwhile to shop around for a price here. Jersey Town has not been seen since his 34-1 upset in the Cigar Mile and is capable of putting up some good early speed that could separate himself from the rest of the field early. He has shown steady works since June 7th, posting six workouts since that point including a six furlong breeze five days ago and a 59 2/5 bullet for five furlongs on July 2nd. The wide post should not be a problem with the early speed he displayed late last year and he has shown that he can run well despite a wide trip.

Jackson Bend may be 0-12 in the last two years, but he has a way of sneaking into the exactas and should be used here. Aikenite has three of his five wins at 7/8 of a mile and will be around at the end. D’ Funnybone ran well two back and has had some extra time off from his last effort, which looks like a throwaway performance.

Wagering strategy:

Win, Place 11
Exacta Box 11/3,7
Exacta 3,7,9,11/2

Next Stop: Saratoga

Six weeks of racing at Saratoga Springs starts this Friday after what felt like an eternity of a meet at Belmont following the Independence Day weekend blowout cards. Having a winning Saratoga meet is akin to winning a batting title in baseball or a major in golf; it is tough, it has been done before, and doing so deserves some kind of commemoration or plaque of some type. As it is every year, the juvenile races and stakes races are the feature attractions of the meet.

Juvenile Junction

The two-year-old maiden and stakes races are an integral part of the summer meet. Classy debut starters and Pletcher entries are seemingly in each event. One of Pletcher’s main charges for the meet is Overdriven, each call in his debut was faster than the last and he was 16 ½ lengths in front of the show runner Big Creek in his debut. J C’s Pride was second in that race and was in front of the Pletcher stable star for the first half mile of that race and his turn time was five lengths faster than the normal for the five furlong distance.

Over at Churchill there was a maiden race on July 2nd that was faster than average for the 4-½ furlong distance. She Digs Me and Next Right Thing battled down to the finish with She Digs Me getting the better of her inexperienced rival, they were eight lengths in front of the third place finisher. She Digs Me will likely start in one of the stakes races for the colts and Next Right Thing will likely start in a maiden race up at the Spa.

Born Bullish ran off the page in her first start, winning by nine lengths. The comments read,”…moved up willingly towards the front runners unasked for speed, drew along side MISS POSSE midway on the turn, bided her time before moving past that rival to take over under her own courage…”. The danger with betting a two-year-old filly coming off of a big win is the possible bounce that takes place from that last effort though.

The Futurity and Matron were moved from their traditional spots on the fall championship meet to early July, setting up these two races as preps for the according Saratoga stakes races. That being said, the Futurity winner Jack’s On Deck and Matron winner Millionreasonswhy may be in tougher in their next starts at Saratoga, their pace and speed figures were no better than average for the six furlong distance. Churchill juvenile stakes winners Exfactor (Bashford Manor, colts) and Flashy Lassie (Debutante, fillies) was no better on the same measures.

Tizway we go

On May 30 Tizway was the winner of the Met Mile with the scintillating final time of 1:32.9 for one mile. On further review, that race was too good to be true. The variant for that race was one; the average variant for the one turn mile at Belmont is a 21. In other words, the surface was extremely fast that day. Rodman did very little in his next start in the Suburban Handicap as the even money favorite. Tizway is supposed to make his next start in the Whitney, buyers beware.

Street Game wired the field in the Hill Prince back on June 18, defeating Virginia Derby winner Air Support by open lengths. Street Game ran an impressive closing fraction that was one of the better efforts put forth at a mile race on the outer turf course. The speed figure was eight lengths faster than average as well. Over that speed favoring turf course upstate, he could easily wire a field or two if left to his own devices.

The Dwyer Stakes will likely produce a few starters for the Jim Dandy and Haskell, the race was not all that fast though. It was six lengths slow at the half, ten lengths slow at the three-quarters mark, and eight lengths slow at the finish. The winner and runner-up will more than likely be overbet in their next start.

Life after the Triple Crown

It has been two weeks since the last jewel of the elusive Triple Crown and what do you know, there is still racing going on. The three-year-old division, which has been the focal point of the first six months of the year, is still wide open. So are the less recognized divisions, which up to this point is every other division going.

Older Males, Turf

Paddy O’Prado was one of the best of the turf division last year and made a promising return with a victory in the Dixie, he was injured shortly after the finish of that race though. Gio Ponti made his stateside return on Belmont Stakes day in the Manhattan and the boggy turf, not one of his better surfaces, did him in. Since his 2009 championship season it looks like he has lost a bit of his closing kick that strung together four straight grade one victories. Winchester is yet to race this year as well; he won two important grade one races last year and could be a player if he returns to action this year.

Over on the West Coast Bourbon Bay and Champ Pegasus were in some tight heats over the course of the last few months and will probably be the standard bearers for the West Coast contingents. Acclamation recently repeated the Charlie Whittingham/Jim Murray Handicap double that he accomplished in 2010, after that point last year his form dropped off dramatically. It remains to be seen if he can hold up his form this time around.

Older Females, Turf

Late last year this division was peppered with longshot winners, Shared Account by way of her upset win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf is the division leader. It is a tenuous lead though, if any filly can go on a hot streak in the next few months they got the division clinched.

Sprinters

The colts and geldings side of this division is extremely deep, Apriority was competitive versus the top echelon of the division in his two tries and was done in by a dead rail in the Churchill Downs Handicap. Morning Line won his only sprint effort this year, the Carter and should be kept at the seven furlong or six furlong tests if the connections like the winner’s circle.

Big Drama is taking an extended break after a stakes win at Gulfstream in January and his connections are aiming for a stakes race or two at Saratoga before trying to win back to back renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Trappe Shot won the True North by open lengths, in the race before that he faced Rule By Night who ran some big races the previous year and could be a decent under the radar horse for the upcoming stakes races.

On the filly and mare side of the spectrum, it looks like Hilda’s Passion is the filly to catch. She has run consistently fast races so far this year. Unless there is a fleet three year old filly out there, it looks she will have it her own way for the rest of the year.

Distaff

Last year Havre De Grace and Blind Luck faced off four times, Blind Luck was ahead of Havre De Grace in three of those encounters with the average winning margin being a quarter of a length. This year in their only meeting Havre De Grace was three lengths clear of her rival at Oaklawn in the Azeri. Blind Luck has gotten back to her winning ways recently with victories in the La Troienne and the Vanity Handicap.

Awesome Maria is perfect in four starts this year, but the fields she has faced so far this year have been less than stellar. Her win in the Shuvee Handicap was over a surface that was faster than normal as well. She will likely be over bet when she has to face some of tougher competition.

The three-year-old section of this division is another wide-open division. Three returnees from the Kentucky Oaks run yesterday and one was victorious, Zazu. Plum Pretty was supposed to run in the Mother Goose and came down with a fever so instead she was entered in the Hollywood Oaks. Zazu was in the Hollywood Oaks as well and benefited from a four-pound weight shift on Plum Pretty. Joyful Victory was the heavy favorite in the Mother Goose and disappointed her backers. Buster’s Ready benefited from an inside trip and posted a four-length victory in the Mother Goose after facing Royal Delta in the Black Eyed Susan. Much like the male counterparts, the title will likely come down to the last few major races left.

Older Males

With the retirements of Lookin At Lucky and Blame from last year, this division is will be a battle royale down to the end. Last week Pool Play came from out of the clouds to capture the Stephen Foster at 36-1, Apart won the William Donald Schaeffer on the Preakness undercard, and First Dude won the Alysheba on the Kentucky Oaks under card. From the looks of it, if Zenyatta was to come out of retirement to avenge her Classic defeat from last year, it would not be a tough task to pull off. The same theory would go for Lookin At Lucky as well.

Parity in the divisions is not all terrible though, it certainly makes things more interesting from this point on with each race increasing in importance and the chances of a nice payoff on a strong opinion of these races very likely as well. With the Versus channel showing the premier events from Saratoga and the chances of some very crucial races to be run, this can be seen as a boost to a sport that could use all the help it can get.

Tale of the Tape, Saratoga vs. Aqueduct

Note: This format has been ripped off and abused more often than any other form of writing out there. Time to pile on to a stale format!

These two tracks are far apart on the scales of amenities, aesthetics, and many other forms of judging a racing facility. Not to mention that Saratoga is only open for about forty days out of the year compared to the six months that Aqueduct is open. Aqueduct has a less than stellar reputation and Saratoga is put on scale with Wrigley Field and Lambeau Field in terms of “sports cathedrals”. Enough with the hyperbole though, it is time to get down to the brass tax.

Thoroughbred legends with stakes races named after them
Saratoga: Fourstardave
Aqueduct: Evening Attire
Advantage: Push, both are great. Although a conversation involving the two is a refresher from the two horses recently discussed for horse of the year.


Belmont Stakes winners who raced at the respective racetracks following their triumphs
Saratoga: Almost every horse that has won this race in the last 20 years
Aqueduct: Jazil
Advantage: Saratoga, anytime you have Jazil as a trump card in a debate it is an automatic loss.

Marquee Event
Saratoga: Travers Stakes
Aqueduct: Wood Memorial (spring), Cigar Mile (fall)
Advantage: Saratoga, the Travers seems to produce a close finish almost every year. The winner of the Wood usually blows the field out and the Cigar Mile has that Breeders Cup hangover feel.

Crowd size after the feature race
Aqueduct: Still there waiting for the get out race
Saratoga: Nonexistent
Advantage: Aqueduct; say what you will about patrons who attend the racing at Aqueduct, but they are a dedicated bunch.

Loaded racing cards
Aqueduct: Thanksgiving weekend, Gotham stakes day, and Wood Memorial day.
Saratoga: Any given racing card
Advantage: Saratoga, although with the extended meets over the last few years the racing quality has been watered down a bit.

Surrounding neighbors
Aqueduct: Chop shops, dive bars, KFC knockoffs, and an airport
Saratoga: The Whitneys and the Racing Hall of Fame
Advantage: Aqueduct, shockingly enough. Above the chop shops there is an old LIRR right of way that connected Rockaway to Queens Boulevard.

Usual patrons
Aqueduct: Taxi cab drivers, construction workers, and trainers who grind out winners at 8% on a yearly basis
Saratoga: Millionaires well to do trainers, and tourists
Advantage: Aqueduct, their crowd is more entertaining.

Getting to the place from the greater NY metropolitan area
Aqueduct: At the most, hour and a half to two hours by car.
Saratoga: Usually two and a half to three hours depending on your location.
Advantage: Aqueduct, not to mention that NYC transit also is conveniently near by with bus and subway service.

Final Score
4-3 Aqueduct, with a big closing kick. Saratoga has its charms, but it wears off fast with peak hotel rates for that area, travel time, and grinding out tough cards throughout the meet. I’m sure I’ll catch flak for posting this, oh well.

The Attendance Myth

Attendance or lack of it is an issue that is brought up every once in a while when mentioning the Belmont and Aqueduct meet. It will probably be written about again by Bossert or Fountaine sometime next week after the Jockey Club Gold Cup and about 10,000 fans show up to see this high caliber event. After Belmont's opening weekend the NY Daily News' Jerry Bossert mentioned that about 8,000 fans showed up for opening day and 50,000 showed up for the final Sunday at Saratoga, which was a give away day. He bemoaned the fact that there was a lack of people showing up at Belmont compared to an inflated figure from one day at Saratoga. Using Saratoga's attendance figures as a measuring stick is fair, using a figure from a day they were giving something away is absurd. People show up in droves to with shopping carts to buy up whatever NYRA is giving out and leave before the first race starts, it is a nonsense figure. The other point is that Saratoga is upstate and there is less to do up there than downstate, also their meet has a majority of their dates in August and that is a big vacation month so of course there will be more interest in that meet from the weekend warriors and others who can't show up on a daily basis.

Attendance as a measure of how racing is doing is an archaic way of measuring the health of racing, overall handle is a better way to determine how business is going. There are more ways to legally place a bet now than thirty years ago, back in the early 80's in New York City the only two ways to place a bet were get out to the track or go to a brick and mortar OTB location. Now you have phone accounts and Internet wagering to accompany to the brick and mortar locations. Other than the regular daily crowd, people can't make it out to the track because they have work.

Speaking from personal experience, getting out to Belmont and Aqueduct during the weekend by mass transit or car is not a fun experience. It used to be easier to get out to Belmont until the LIRR canceled service to that branch, now you have to take the F train to the last stop (179th st Jamaica) and wait for the Q2 or an overcrowded N6. Aqueduct has two wonderful options to get out there, take the correct A train (there are two of them) through Brooklyn on the weekend when service is drastically cut back or wait at a bus stop in the middle of the winter for upwards of thirty minutes. Getting out to Aqueduct by car is not a good alternative to the MTA either, being near JFK airport makes the traffic worse than it should be and the Interboro Expressway is a traffic jammed nightmare that links up to the pothole laden Van Wyck Expressway. Belmont has the Cross Island Parkway, which is a trafic tangled nightmare after the last race.

Saratoga posted a decline this year and the NYRA executives were happy because they didn't lose as much as they thought they would. When one loses money it is not something to gloat about, you don't see someone leave a casino table game after losing with a smile on their face very often and if they do it probably is due to the fact they are inebriated. Saratoga used to be a meet that showcased the best of racing, in recent years due to added dates the meet has resembled Belmont or Aqueduct north. They had more maiden claiming and basement level claiming races during this meet than any other Saratoga meet in recent years. When you give the public bad races this is what you get, Aqueduct usually is last out of three with daily average handle because of this.

If NYRA really wanted to improve attendance they would be aggressive and promote how they have the cheapest attendance out of all professional sports teams in the area. I'm pretty sure the New York Racing Association has not run an ad on network television since 1998, I have it on tape somewhere. Millions upon millions are bet into New York racing every week even though the cumulative total of people showing at Belmont is somewhere in the 20,000 region. Complaints about people not showing up to the plant are minor in comparison to the fact that a decline in handle is a much more significant sign.

Yet another another Woodward and another heavy chalk running

Closing Weekend at the Spa and the usual stakes are on tap around the country with the exception of the Pennsylvania Derby, which has been moved to the end of September and will probably act as a feeder for the Breeders Cup Classic. Philadelphia Park (there is no way I am calling that track Parx) replaced the Pennsylvania Derby with a lucrative prep for said event called the Smarty Jones. On my count that is two races named in honor the Kentucky Derby winner, Oaklawn has a stakes named the Smarty Jones as well.

On Saturday at Saratoga a horse of legendary status is set to start his march towards greatness, that horse is Mr. Fantasy. The impressive winner of the Withers that Greg posted about a few times last year is looking to get his year back on track after two straight tough beats. The race that Mr. Fantasy is entered in is race three and it shapes up like a good listed stakes race featuring Brother Bird (half to Mine That Bird) and Safe Trip who was last seen chasing Discreetly Mine. This race is certainly one to watch out for and probably will be a productive next out race.

The Forego came up a full field with lots of viable contenders, Bribon turned in two straight good efforts going six furlongs and seems to show no signs of slowing down. Vineyard Haven has been a model of consistency at this track with two wins and two placings out of four starts. Big Drama is back to what he does best and that is sprinting, seven furlongs is no issue either with two wins at the distance. Warrior's Reward is another one who relishes the 7/8 of a mile trip with wins in three out of five tries. If anything, this race is wide open with a few solid opportunities to make a good score.

The Woodward has had recent history being a playground for the heavy chalk. In the last three years champion runners Lawyer Ron, Curlin, and Rachel Alexandra won with heavy public support. This year the morning line favorite is Quality Road who is listed at 1/4, when a morning line odds maker is setting the odds that low it usually means that they don't too high of an opinion on the rest of the field. The morning line odds maker has enough trouble listing a horse at 50/1 and seeing the extreme from either end of the spectrum is rare.

The rest of the weekend at Saratoga has two grade three turf stakes, the Hopeful, and the Spinaway. Might as well lump these four stakes together, because the juvenile picture is almost always murky no matter what the experts say and Greg has a better idea of turf racing than yours truly.

As far as the the Hopeful and Spinaway being an effective barometer for the future of the juvenile division it has a bad recent record, especially the Spinaway. Hot Dixie Chick has not been the same this year, Irish Smoke never ran that race again in her career, Mani Bhavan never developed, and Appealing Zophie did not run back to this effort in her career. The last horse to go on to do anything of consequence from this race was Ashado back in 2003 who went on win the Kentucky Oaks among her other accomplishments. The Hopeful has a better record of turning out future stars in the sport. Silver Wagon won this race in 2003 and went on to win a few stakes races, Birdstone also ran in this race and he ended up winning the Belmont and Travers. Afleet Alex was champion three year old the following year after capturing the Arkansas Derby, Preakness, and Belmont. Vineyard Haven won this race two years ago and had a solid abbreviated campaign with a win in a grade one sprint at Laurel and placings in the King's Bishop and the Cigar Mile Handicap.