Another grade one race for three year old colts and yet another winner to join the crowded club for 2011. With the Travers having the distinction of being the last grade one on the books exclusively for the sophomore class and no one creating some distance from the competition, it will be a mad scramble to the end of the year to decide the championships. In this case chaos is good. Uncle Mo did not win the King’s Bishop and if anything may be back for a shot at redemption at four years old, seeing how his three-year-old season has turned into a wash. Shackleford was less than a length away from clinching the division title back on July 31st and now is back in a tie with the rest of the division. Stay Thristy is the resurgent force of the division with two recent wins and was a close second in the Belmont. With the magic number set at two grade one wins, the whole lot is stuck at one.
The parity trend is not isolated to the three-year-old males, the filly counterparts went from a division that was It’s Tricky’s to capture back into a group that any able bodied filly can win if they get on a hot streak. Turbulent Descent probably benefits the most from last week’s upheaval, as she is a multiple graded stakes winner this year. She may only need the rest of the division to trade off victories or loses to the older fillies in the fall stakes races and a Breeders’ Cup win in order to clinch. It’s Tricky remains closer to the honors than the rest of the fillies and a win against older fillies would likely grab the title.
Tizway is the default leader of the older males with wins in the Met Mile and Whitney, one more grade one and he gets the trophy with little resistance. The rest of the elder colts and geldings in that group are a jumbled mess and wins by a combination of any of them probably won’t do much to uproot the current leader.
The horse of the year championship is a four-way race at this point. Cape Blanco has two major victories stateside and a third one could get him the nod. Tizway will probably need one or two more major victories. Then there is the predicament of Havre De Grace and Blind Luck.
These two fillies have faced off against each other throughout various points in the past two years and have traded decisions with a narrow margin of victory almost every time. Havre De Grace is on target for the Woodward this upcoming Saturday at Saratoga and Havre De Grace has two races left on the schedule for the remainder of the season. If Havre De Grace wins against the males and it is a taxing effort like the one Rachel Alexandra put forth in her conquest of this race the important question is do you put her away for the year or squeeze one more race out of her for the year? Blink Luck could run the table and easily take the Horse of the Year honors away for Havre De Grace.
It is unprecedented that a filly or mare has won the Horse of the Year honors for three straight seasons and it may happen this year with the way the division races have shaped up. While horses trading decisions for the past eight months is not the most thrilling of things to follow throughout the year, it does provide for an interesting finish to a season filled with parity.
Power cap- existential handicapping
Showing posts with label breeders cup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label breeders cup. Show all posts
28 August 2011
11 August 2011
No surprise here
Santa Anita is getting the 2012 Breeders’ Cup, Mike Repole and Steven Crist are upset about this. As Crist points out, this will be the third time in five years that southern California track has hosted the event. What he failed to pointed out is the ten year gap that Santa Anita did not host the event from 1993 to 2003 and in a ten year span from 1995 to 2005 Belmont Park played host three times. What comes around goes around.
It seems as though Breeders’ Cup officials have been leery of having the two-day race card at an East Coast racetrack since the weekend deluge that befell Monmouth Park in 2007 and the tragic breakdown of George Washington that occurred in the Classic. Weather on the Atlantic side of the country in the fall has been hit or miss at it’s best, it is chilly and dry or chilly and raining. The West Coast is attractive to the owners because of the warm weather and lack of rain in the area during that time of the year. It is the same reason that owners will probably continue to choose sending horse down to Gulfstream over Aqueduct even after the purses are increased with the slot machines opening soon. Kentucky is the other default choice because the breeders can show off their breeding stock around the same time there is an auction at Keeneland.
The New York Racing Association released its fall and winter stakes schedule on Wednesday. The most noticeable of the changes to the schedule is the Nashua and Tempted stakes being moved to Belmont in early October. The pair of juvenile stakes races are now at the sprint distance of six furlongs so it can be used as prep races for the newly created Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. Once again NYRA has to bend its schedule to the will of the Breeders’ Cup, last year the Kelso Stakes was moved to the dirt at the mile distance as a prep race for the Dirt Mile. This took away from the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which Tizway competed in the year before and probably would have entered in again along with Regal Ransom and Mythical Power. Instead of a six horse Jockey Club Gold Cup, it would have been a nine-horse field at the minimum.
The New York Racing Association used to have one of, if not the best stakes schedule out of all the North American racetrack circuits. The Breeders’ Cup has taken away from NYRA and other racetracks in the name of the prep for the big payday. Not only that, but they also have specialized every division by bumping the event to two days and 15 races, when it used to be seven races in one day. The Breeders’ Cup has become an unwieldy beast that feasts off of other racetracks for their product.
It seems as though Breeders’ Cup officials have been leery of having the two-day race card at an East Coast racetrack since the weekend deluge that befell Monmouth Park in 2007 and the tragic breakdown of George Washington that occurred in the Classic. Weather on the Atlantic side of the country in the fall has been hit or miss at it’s best, it is chilly and dry or chilly and raining. The West Coast is attractive to the owners because of the warm weather and lack of rain in the area during that time of the year. It is the same reason that owners will probably continue to choose sending horse down to Gulfstream over Aqueduct even after the purses are increased with the slot machines opening soon. Kentucky is the other default choice because the breeders can show off their breeding stock around the same time there is an auction at Keeneland.
The New York Racing Association released its fall and winter stakes schedule on Wednesday. The most noticeable of the changes to the schedule is the Nashua and Tempted stakes being moved to Belmont in early October. The pair of juvenile stakes races are now at the sprint distance of six furlongs so it can be used as prep races for the newly created Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. Once again NYRA has to bend its schedule to the will of the Breeders’ Cup, last year the Kelso Stakes was moved to the dirt at the mile distance as a prep race for the Dirt Mile. This took away from the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which Tizway competed in the year before and probably would have entered in again along with Regal Ransom and Mythical Power. Instead of a six horse Jockey Club Gold Cup, it would have been a nine-horse field at the minimum.
The New York Racing Association used to have one of, if not the best stakes schedule out of all the North American racetrack circuits. The Breeders’ Cup has taken away from NYRA and other racetracks in the name of the prep for the big payday. Not only that, but they also have specialized every division by bumping the event to two days and 15 races, when it used to be seven races in one day. The Breeders’ Cup has become an unwieldy beast that feasts off of other racetracks for their product.
26 June 2011
Life after the Triple Crown
It has been two weeks since the last jewel of the elusive Triple Crown and what do you know, there is still racing going on. The three-year-old division, which has been the focal point of the first six months of the year, is still wide open. So are the less recognized divisions, which up to this point is every other division going.
Older Males, Turf
Paddy O’Prado was one of the best of the turf division last year and made a promising return with a victory in the Dixie, he was injured shortly after the finish of that race though. Gio Ponti made his stateside return on Belmont Stakes day in the Manhattan and the boggy turf, not one of his better surfaces, did him in. Since his 2009 championship season it looks like he has lost a bit of his closing kick that strung together four straight grade one victories. Winchester is yet to race this year as well; he won two important grade one races last year and could be a player if he returns to action this year.
Over on the West Coast Bourbon Bay and Champ Pegasus were in some tight heats over the course of the last few months and will probably be the standard bearers for the West Coast contingents. Acclamation recently repeated the Charlie Whittingham/Jim Murray Handicap double that he accomplished in 2010, after that point last year his form dropped off dramatically. It remains to be seen if he can hold up his form this time around.
Older Females, Turf
Late last year this division was peppered with longshot winners, Shared Account by way of her upset win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf is the division leader. It is a tenuous lead though, if any filly can go on a hot streak in the next few months they got the division clinched.
Sprinters
The colts and geldings side of this division is extremely deep, Apriority was competitive versus the top echelon of the division in his two tries and was done in by a dead rail in the Churchill Downs Handicap. Morning Line won his only sprint effort this year, the Carter and should be kept at the seven furlong or six furlong tests if the connections like the winner’s circle.
Big Drama is taking an extended break after a stakes win at Gulfstream in January and his connections are aiming for a stakes race or two at Saratoga before trying to win back to back renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Trappe Shot won the True North by open lengths, in the race before that he faced Rule By Night who ran some big races the previous year and could be a decent under the radar horse for the upcoming stakes races.
On the filly and mare side of the spectrum, it looks like Hilda’s Passion is the filly to catch. She has run consistently fast races so far this year. Unless there is a fleet three year old filly out there, it looks she will have it her own way for the rest of the year.
Distaff
Last year Havre De Grace and Blind Luck faced off four times, Blind Luck was ahead of Havre De Grace in three of those encounters with the average winning margin being a quarter of a length. This year in their only meeting Havre De Grace was three lengths clear of her rival at Oaklawn in the Azeri. Blind Luck has gotten back to her winning ways recently with victories in the La Troienne and the Vanity Handicap.
Awesome Maria is perfect in four starts this year, but the fields she has faced so far this year have been less than stellar. Her win in the Shuvee Handicap was over a surface that was faster than normal as well. She will likely be over bet when she has to face some of tougher competition.
The three-year-old section of this division is another wide-open division. Three returnees from the Kentucky Oaks run yesterday and one was victorious, Zazu. Plum Pretty was supposed to run in the Mother Goose and came down with a fever so instead she was entered in the Hollywood Oaks. Zazu was in the Hollywood Oaks as well and benefited from a four-pound weight shift on Plum Pretty. Joyful Victory was the heavy favorite in the Mother Goose and disappointed her backers. Buster’s Ready benefited from an inside trip and posted a four-length victory in the Mother Goose after facing Royal Delta in the Black Eyed Susan. Much like the male counterparts, the title will likely come down to the last few major races left.
Older Males
With the retirements of Lookin At Lucky and Blame from last year, this division is will be a battle royale down to the end. Last week Pool Play came from out of the clouds to capture the Stephen Foster at 36-1, Apart won the William Donald Schaeffer on the Preakness undercard, and First Dude won the Alysheba on the Kentucky Oaks under card. From the looks of it, if Zenyatta was to come out of retirement to avenge her Classic defeat from last year, it would not be a tough task to pull off. The same theory would go for Lookin At Lucky as well.
Parity in the divisions is not all terrible though, it certainly makes things more interesting from this point on with each race increasing in importance and the chances of a nice payoff on a strong opinion of these races very likely as well. With the Versus channel showing the premier events from Saratoga and the chances of some very crucial races to be run, this can be seen as a boost to a sport that could use all the help it can get.
Older Males, Turf
Paddy O’Prado was one of the best of the turf division last year and made a promising return with a victory in the Dixie, he was injured shortly after the finish of that race though. Gio Ponti made his stateside return on Belmont Stakes day in the Manhattan and the boggy turf, not one of his better surfaces, did him in. Since his 2009 championship season it looks like he has lost a bit of his closing kick that strung together four straight grade one victories. Winchester is yet to race this year as well; he won two important grade one races last year and could be a player if he returns to action this year.
Over on the West Coast Bourbon Bay and Champ Pegasus were in some tight heats over the course of the last few months and will probably be the standard bearers for the West Coast contingents. Acclamation recently repeated the Charlie Whittingham/Jim Murray Handicap double that he accomplished in 2010, after that point last year his form dropped off dramatically. It remains to be seen if he can hold up his form this time around.
Older Females, Turf
Late last year this division was peppered with longshot winners, Shared Account by way of her upset win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf is the division leader. It is a tenuous lead though, if any filly can go on a hot streak in the next few months they got the division clinched.
Sprinters
The colts and geldings side of this division is extremely deep, Apriority was competitive versus the top echelon of the division in his two tries and was done in by a dead rail in the Churchill Downs Handicap. Morning Line won his only sprint effort this year, the Carter and should be kept at the seven furlong or six furlong tests if the connections like the winner’s circle.
Big Drama is taking an extended break after a stakes win at Gulfstream in January and his connections are aiming for a stakes race or two at Saratoga before trying to win back to back renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Trappe Shot won the True North by open lengths, in the race before that he faced Rule By Night who ran some big races the previous year and could be a decent under the radar horse for the upcoming stakes races.
On the filly and mare side of the spectrum, it looks like Hilda’s Passion is the filly to catch. She has run consistently fast races so far this year. Unless there is a fleet three year old filly out there, it looks she will have it her own way for the rest of the year.
Distaff
Last year Havre De Grace and Blind Luck faced off four times, Blind Luck was ahead of Havre De Grace in three of those encounters with the average winning margin being a quarter of a length. This year in their only meeting Havre De Grace was three lengths clear of her rival at Oaklawn in the Azeri. Blind Luck has gotten back to her winning ways recently with victories in the La Troienne and the Vanity Handicap.
Awesome Maria is perfect in four starts this year, but the fields she has faced so far this year have been less than stellar. Her win in the Shuvee Handicap was over a surface that was faster than normal as well. She will likely be over bet when she has to face some of tougher competition.
The three-year-old section of this division is another wide-open division. Three returnees from the Kentucky Oaks run yesterday and one was victorious, Zazu. Plum Pretty was supposed to run in the Mother Goose and came down with a fever so instead she was entered in the Hollywood Oaks. Zazu was in the Hollywood Oaks as well and benefited from a four-pound weight shift on Plum Pretty. Joyful Victory was the heavy favorite in the Mother Goose and disappointed her backers. Buster’s Ready benefited from an inside trip and posted a four-length victory in the Mother Goose after facing Royal Delta in the Black Eyed Susan. Much like the male counterparts, the title will likely come down to the last few major races left.
Older Males
With the retirements of Lookin At Lucky and Blame from last year, this division is will be a battle royale down to the end. Last week Pool Play came from out of the clouds to capture the Stephen Foster at 36-1, Apart won the William Donald Schaeffer on the Preakness undercard, and First Dude won the Alysheba on the Kentucky Oaks under card. From the looks of it, if Zenyatta was to come out of retirement to avenge her Classic defeat from last year, it would not be a tough task to pull off. The same theory would go for Lookin At Lucky as well.
Parity in the divisions is not all terrible though, it certainly makes things more interesting from this point on with each race increasing in importance and the chances of a nice payoff on a strong opinion of these races very likely as well. With the Versus channel showing the premier events from Saratoga and the chances of some very crucial races to be run, this can be seen as a boost to a sport that could use all the help it can get.
18 June 2011
Add another one to the books
Time for more saturation of the already over populated two day and now 15 race Breeders Cup program. The new race on the schedule is the Juvenile Sprint that is open to the colts, geldings, and fillies. It also carries a $500,000 purse which doubles or triples all other juvenile races around that time period including the Iroquois and Pocahontas from Churchill and the already depleted stakes races of the Nashua and Tempted stakes from Aqueduct. Thus drawing away from even more stakes races run in the fall. This isn’t even the interesting part of the story; there were two remarks that were made that stuck out from this stub of an article.
First off the comment by Mr. Willmot, the juvenile division is just the juvenile division. There was no split between the sprinters and routers at this point like their older counterparts featured in the other races. Most of the races around this point in the year are seven furlongs or longer as well, there is very little in the way of established sprint races for the newly minted thoroughbred runners. NYRA used to have a pair of sprint races that they ran in October called the Cowdin and Astarita; they were discontinued due to the Breeder’s Cup and a lack of entries. Do you know what this race will feature? Mostly horses that just broke their maidens and are Breeders’ Cup nominated. More than likely it will be a highly pursed n1x allowance.
Murphy mentioned that there is a group of juveniles that are not ready to go two turns or the 8-½ furlongs that the two mainstay juvenile races are established at. Doesn’t that apply to 90% of the horse population at this point their career anyway? Even the established routers from late in the season last year turned into busts this year Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, and Awesome Feather did not transfer their form to this year after showing two turn prowess last year. Two out of the last three Derby winners were turf or synthetic winners as two-year-olds in addition to this. If distance were such an issue it would make more sense to shorten the big two back to a one-turn mile or seven furlongs. The 7/8 of a mile distance seems to be a stretch for most of the horses entered in the two mainstay juvenile races anyway.
Lastly, the two day 15 race mega-card of the Breeders’ Cup probably has a few too many races. The Marathon was added as a way to “encourage” racetracks to add long distance races to their programs. From the looks of it, the effort made by racing secretaries is minimal. There is little in the way of recognizable long distance races outside of the Brooklyn and the Greenwood Cup Handicap. If there was any kind of effort put in by the major tracks there would be at least two competitive options a month for runners at this distance. This race is seen as an afterthought where a trainer will throw a runner if they ran good in a lesser prep or were beaten badly in one of the major preps. Back in 2005 there were only eight races featuring the best of the best, an overload of races and a burnout of the races that act as preps for the big day have diluted the Breeders’ Cup program. Adding even more races will not fix this problem.
“A six furlong sprint race for Juveniles has the potential to provide highly competitive fields in this new division.”
-David Willmot
“In discussions with horsemen on selecting a new race, an overwhelming majority requested that we add a Juvenile Sprint to the Championships program. There are a number of talented 2-year-old sprinters around the world who are not suited or may not be ready to run the two turns at 1 1/16 miles of the Juvenile or Juvenile Fillies in early November. The Juvenile Sprint provides horsemen with an alternative.”
-Clem Murphy
First off the comment by Mr. Willmot, the juvenile division is just the juvenile division. There was no split between the sprinters and routers at this point like their older counterparts featured in the other races. Most of the races around this point in the year are seven furlongs or longer as well, there is very little in the way of established sprint races for the newly minted thoroughbred runners. NYRA used to have a pair of sprint races that they ran in October called the Cowdin and Astarita; they were discontinued due to the Breeder’s Cup and a lack of entries. Do you know what this race will feature? Mostly horses that just broke their maidens and are Breeders’ Cup nominated. More than likely it will be a highly pursed n1x allowance.
Murphy mentioned that there is a group of juveniles that are not ready to go two turns or the 8-½ furlongs that the two mainstay juvenile races are established at. Doesn’t that apply to 90% of the horse population at this point their career anyway? Even the established routers from late in the season last year turned into busts this year Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, and Awesome Feather did not transfer their form to this year after showing two turn prowess last year. Two out of the last three Derby winners were turf or synthetic winners as two-year-olds in addition to this. If distance were such an issue it would make more sense to shorten the big two back to a one-turn mile or seven furlongs. The 7/8 of a mile distance seems to be a stretch for most of the horses entered in the two mainstay juvenile races anyway.
Lastly, the two day 15 race mega-card of the Breeders’ Cup probably has a few too many races. The Marathon was added as a way to “encourage” racetracks to add long distance races to their programs. From the looks of it, the effort made by racing secretaries is minimal. There is little in the way of recognizable long distance races outside of the Brooklyn and the Greenwood Cup Handicap. If there was any kind of effort put in by the major tracks there would be at least two competitive options a month for runners at this distance. This race is seen as an afterthought where a trainer will throw a runner if they ran good in a lesser prep or were beaten badly in one of the major preps. Back in 2005 there were only eight races featuring the best of the best, an overload of races and a burnout of the races that act as preps for the big day have diluted the Breeders’ Cup program. Adding even more races will not fix this problem.
06 November 2010
Breeders' Cup Roundup, Saturday edition
Six races in the books and eight more to go, if yesterday’s results taught us anything it is that shopping for prices during the Breeders’ Cup is still the way to go. Not a single pari-mutuel favorite won throughout the Breeders’ Cup portion of the Churchill card. The heavy chalk did manage to hit the board in the Distaff, Juvenile Fillies Turf, and the Fillies and Mares turf. Playing the heavy favorites underneath may be the way to go for the remaining Breeders’ Cup races.
Juvenile Turf
From the looks of it there should not be a horse going off less than 4/1 in this race, this is a very wide-open field. As I said yesterday about the Juvenile Fillies, someone has to win this. If you have a dartboard lying around it may be your best handicapping tool in this race.
Sprint
Warrior’s Reward is in this race and not the Dirt Mile, his form has been darkened up a bit with his last three starts. The Met Mile he was on the pace, he doesn’t like Saratoga all that much and he showed it in the Forego, and he is zero for two on synthetics. It may be worthwhile to use Warrior’s Reward in the exotics based on the value and the murky form.
Turf Sprint
If you found a dartboard and used it for the Juvenile Turf, keeping that out for this race highly advised.
Juvenile
Looking at the pedigrees of this field, it seems like less than half of them can go any further than 1 1/8 miles. JP’s Gusto has had a very nice season out in southern California, yet there are two knocks on him coming into this race. The first being he has a great sprinters’ pedigree and the other is he did not stay the distance of 1 1/16 miles despite a perfect trip. Boys At Tosconova has been training like clockwork and has some stamina influence on the mare’s side of the pedigree with Coronado’s Quest. Unclue Mo will probably be an underlay in this race, his connections are always bet, the big speed figures are always bet, and he was less than even money in his first two starts.
Mile
Goldikova is the first one trying to get the hat trick with consecutive Breeders’ Cup wins today. To appreciate the difficulty of this task you have to go back to 1994 when Lure was attempting the same feat in this race. As usual the Mile has some stiff competition lined up, Gio Ponti is three out of four at the distance, Court Vision has turned in his best races at this distance as well, Paco Boy has been chasing Goldikova since June, Sidney’s Candy had a monster race last time out, and Proviso has a great closing kick going a mile.
Dirt Mile
There were two prep races that were set up for this spot, the Kelso Handicap and the Presque Isle Downs Mile. Tizway and Cool Coal Man are the only ones that used the race Kelso and Gayego is coming from the Presque Isle Downs Mile. The rest of the field is coming from an assortment of races that are being used as preps for the Classic or Sprint. The Forego, Woodward, Pennsylvania Derby, Goodwood, and Indiana Derby were the races to be exact.
Turf
Winchester is the America’s best chance at winning this race, the Turf Classic was run over a yielding course at 1 ½ miles, that was a tougher race than the Beyer figures are giving credit for. Debussy has already shipped from England once to win a big race in the U.S., what is stopping him from repeating that effort? His last race was against Vision d’Etat and Twice Over, two top notch runners, and he is in peak form for this effort. Behkabad had a rough trip in the Arc de Triomphe where he was boxed in for most of the race and has run some solid races this year, he could be worth a look at a price.
Classic
Pace makes the race and there is an abundance of it in this race. Quality Road has the rail and very few options, Haynesfield’s best races are on or close to the lead, First Dude is usually up on the pace, and Etched has shown nothing but speed throughout his career. Having just three out of four of the projected speeds up there still would set up for a fast early pace and a sweet trip for the closers like Zenyatta, Blame, and Lookin at Lucky. There isn’t much to say about Zenyatta that any other person has said about her, she is an undefeated freak of nature, but taking short odds on what could be her last race of her career is something that is hard to do in a race loaded with talent. Anyone expecting even money or higher on her in this spot will be sorely mistaken, she has received a bulk of the media attention in the last few weeks and has a very loyal fan base so 2/5 odds is more likely than not.
Home field advantage could be the deciding factor here as it was in the Filly & Mare Sprint a day earlier. Blame is three for four at Churchill and his late kick should be well suited for this race. Fly Down is a horse worth a flyer at long odds, he ran a big race in the Travers and is facing older competition for the second time. Flower Alley comes to mind with this type of angle, he did not run to his ability first time against his elders in the 2005 Jockey Club Gold Cup and came back with a second place finish in the classic that year.
Juvenile Turf
From the looks of it there should not be a horse going off less than 4/1 in this race, this is a very wide-open field. As I said yesterday about the Juvenile Fillies, someone has to win this. If you have a dartboard lying around it may be your best handicapping tool in this race.
Sprint
Warrior’s Reward is in this race and not the Dirt Mile, his form has been darkened up a bit with his last three starts. The Met Mile he was on the pace, he doesn’t like Saratoga all that much and he showed it in the Forego, and he is zero for two on synthetics. It may be worthwhile to use Warrior’s Reward in the exotics based on the value and the murky form.
Turf Sprint
If you found a dartboard and used it for the Juvenile Turf, keeping that out for this race highly advised.
Juvenile
Looking at the pedigrees of this field, it seems like less than half of them can go any further than 1 1/8 miles. JP’s Gusto has had a very nice season out in southern California, yet there are two knocks on him coming into this race. The first being he has a great sprinters’ pedigree and the other is he did not stay the distance of 1 1/16 miles despite a perfect trip. Boys At Tosconova has been training like clockwork and has some stamina influence on the mare’s side of the pedigree with Coronado’s Quest. Unclue Mo will probably be an underlay in this race, his connections are always bet, the big speed figures are always bet, and he was less than even money in his first two starts.
Mile
Goldikova is the first one trying to get the hat trick with consecutive Breeders’ Cup wins today. To appreciate the difficulty of this task you have to go back to 1994 when Lure was attempting the same feat in this race. As usual the Mile has some stiff competition lined up, Gio Ponti is three out of four at the distance, Court Vision has turned in his best races at this distance as well, Paco Boy has been chasing Goldikova since June, Sidney’s Candy had a monster race last time out, and Proviso has a great closing kick going a mile.
Dirt Mile
There were two prep races that were set up for this spot, the Kelso Handicap and the Presque Isle Downs Mile. Tizway and Cool Coal Man are the only ones that used the race Kelso and Gayego is coming from the Presque Isle Downs Mile. The rest of the field is coming from an assortment of races that are being used as preps for the Classic or Sprint. The Forego, Woodward, Pennsylvania Derby, Goodwood, and Indiana Derby were the races to be exact.
Turf
Winchester is the America’s best chance at winning this race, the Turf Classic was run over a yielding course at 1 ½ miles, that was a tougher race than the Beyer figures are giving credit for. Debussy has already shipped from England once to win a big race in the U.S., what is stopping him from repeating that effort? His last race was against Vision d’Etat and Twice Over, two top notch runners, and he is in peak form for this effort. Behkabad had a rough trip in the Arc de Triomphe where he was boxed in for most of the race and has run some solid races this year, he could be worth a look at a price.
Classic
Pace makes the race and there is an abundance of it in this race. Quality Road has the rail and very few options, Haynesfield’s best races are on or close to the lead, First Dude is usually up on the pace, and Etched has shown nothing but speed throughout his career. Having just three out of four of the projected speeds up there still would set up for a fast early pace and a sweet trip for the closers like Zenyatta, Blame, and Lookin at Lucky. There isn’t much to say about Zenyatta that any other person has said about her, she is an undefeated freak of nature, but taking short odds on what could be her last race of her career is something that is hard to do in a race loaded with talent. Anyone expecting even money or higher on her in this spot will be sorely mistaken, she has received a bulk of the media attention in the last few weeks and has a very loyal fan base so 2/5 odds is more likely than not.
Home field advantage could be the deciding factor here as it was in the Filly & Mare Sprint a day earlier. Blame is three for four at Churchill and his late kick should be well suited for this race. Fly Down is a horse worth a flyer at long odds, he ran a big race in the Travers and is facing older competition for the second time. Flower Alley comes to mind with this type of angle, he did not run to his ability first time against his elders in the 2005 Jockey Club Gold Cup and came back with a second place finish in the classic that year.
04 November 2010
Breeders' Cup Roundup, Friday edition
The first day of the two-day Breeders’ Cup program is on tap with 14 high-class races carded and it has never been a better time to be a spot player. With so many races to choose from a player can bet into the races that are in their wheelhouse and sit out the races that aren’t to their preference.
Marathon
The Sprint used to be the kickoff race for the program back when there were only seven races held. Twice the amount of races scheduled, double up the distance of the first race to be run. This cannot be a coincidence with the way they carded this. The Europeans sent their allowance grade runners in this race too, parroting what their American counterparts do with marathon dirt races on a yearly basis.
Awesome Gem is back to take another crack at the Breeders’ Cup, the seven year old gelding has been to the big dance three times prior and his best finish was a third in the 2007 Classic. Looking at his record two things are apparent, the first and most obvious is that he finishes second a lot with 13 placings out of 38 starts and the other is he may better on dirt than synthetics. His record on dirt is three wins and five on the board finishes out of ten starts, his record on synthetics two wins and seven on the board finishes out of 16 starts.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
This is the first wave of European turf invaders, Together leads the foreign charge in this race with a grade three win and a place finish facing grade one competition two starts back. Winter Memories has a big closing kick and the pedigree that this event was made for with Memories of Silver as the dam. Winter Memories had only two horses beat and was six lengths out of it with 5/16 of a mile left and circled the field to win easily on a yielding course in her last start. She could be a star on the rise.
Filly & Mare Sprint
Informed Decision is the first of four horses trying to repeat from last year’s success in the Breeders’ Cup. I’m sure Vegas has a proposition bet on which horse or horses will repeat in this year’s renewal and if they are offering this proposition bet Informed Decision has to be highest odds of the four. She has lost a step or two from the monster year she had in 2009 when she won six of seven.
A longshot worth a look is Rinterval, she faced Zenyatta two back and was in the teeth of a fast pace last out in the Spinster. The quarter of a mile cutback and switch to dirt could prime her for a big effort at a price in this spot.
Juvenile Fillies
Someone has to win this, none of the horses coming out of the big three preps ran particularly fast. The all button may be a multi-race player’s best friend in this spot. If a longshot wins this race and Winter Memories wins the Juvenile Turf, a case can be made for Winter Memories as the eclipse winner for the juvenile fillies division.
Filly & Mare Turf
Midday is coming into this race with wins in three straight grade one races and is in sharper form than she was last year when she won this race, she will be tough to beat here. Red Desire is better than her last start, which was over a yielding course. Miss Keller had the lead in mid-stretch of the EP Taylor and has been gradually stretching out to a 1 3/8 miles in her last four starts.
Distaff
Still not calling this race the Ladies’ Classic. The pace scenario is interesting in this race, a lot of the public handicappers are projecting Malibu Prayer as the early speed. There may be more horses up front than expected though. Milwaukee Appeal was on the hot pace of the Spinster, Acting Happy is adding blinkers, and Unrivaled Belle has not been worse than third early in her races since October of 2009.
Blind Luck has had a heck of season with eight races at seven different racetracks and five wins out of those starts including a narrow victory in the Kentucky Oaks. If Blind Luck wins the Distaff and a longshot ends up winning the Classic, a case can be made for Blind Luck being horse of the year.
A longshot worth a look is Acoma. She got no respect from the morning line odds maker Mike Battaglia with a 20/1 line. The Spinster was a fast race early and late, in addition to that Acoma is perfect in two starts over the Churchill dirt.
Marathon
The Sprint used to be the kickoff race for the program back when there were only seven races held. Twice the amount of races scheduled, double up the distance of the first race to be run. This cannot be a coincidence with the way they carded this. The Europeans sent their allowance grade runners in this race too, parroting what their American counterparts do with marathon dirt races on a yearly basis.
Awesome Gem is back to take another crack at the Breeders’ Cup, the seven year old gelding has been to the big dance three times prior and his best finish was a third in the 2007 Classic. Looking at his record two things are apparent, the first and most obvious is that he finishes second a lot with 13 placings out of 38 starts and the other is he may better on dirt than synthetics. His record on dirt is three wins and five on the board finishes out of ten starts, his record on synthetics two wins and seven on the board finishes out of 16 starts.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
This is the first wave of European turf invaders, Together leads the foreign charge in this race with a grade three win and a place finish facing grade one competition two starts back. Winter Memories has a big closing kick and the pedigree that this event was made for with Memories of Silver as the dam. Winter Memories had only two horses beat and was six lengths out of it with 5/16 of a mile left and circled the field to win easily on a yielding course in her last start. She could be a star on the rise.
Filly & Mare Sprint
Informed Decision is the first of four horses trying to repeat from last year’s success in the Breeders’ Cup. I’m sure Vegas has a proposition bet on which horse or horses will repeat in this year’s renewal and if they are offering this proposition bet Informed Decision has to be highest odds of the four. She has lost a step or two from the monster year she had in 2009 when she won six of seven.
A longshot worth a look is Rinterval, she faced Zenyatta two back and was in the teeth of a fast pace last out in the Spinster. The quarter of a mile cutback and switch to dirt could prime her for a big effort at a price in this spot.
Juvenile Fillies
Someone has to win this, none of the horses coming out of the big three preps ran particularly fast. The all button may be a multi-race player’s best friend in this spot. If a longshot wins this race and Winter Memories wins the Juvenile Turf, a case can be made for Winter Memories as the eclipse winner for the juvenile fillies division.
Filly & Mare Turf
Midday is coming into this race with wins in three straight grade one races and is in sharper form than she was last year when she won this race, she will be tough to beat here. Red Desire is better than her last start, which was over a yielding course. Miss Keller had the lead in mid-stretch of the EP Taylor and has been gradually stretching out to a 1 3/8 miles in her last four starts.
Distaff
Still not calling this race the Ladies’ Classic. The pace scenario is interesting in this race, a lot of the public handicappers are projecting Malibu Prayer as the early speed. There may be more horses up front than expected though. Milwaukee Appeal was on the hot pace of the Spinster, Acting Happy is adding blinkers, and Unrivaled Belle has not been worse than third early in her races since October of 2009.
Blind Luck has had a heck of season with eight races at seven different racetracks and five wins out of those starts including a narrow victory in the Kentucky Oaks. If Blind Luck wins the Distaff and a longshot ends up winning the Classic, a case can be made for Blind Luck being horse of the year.
A longshot worth a look is Acoma. She got no respect from the morning line odds maker Mike Battaglia with a 20/1 line. The Spinster was a fast race early and late, in addition to that Acoma is perfect in two starts over the Churchill dirt.
19 October 2010
The Pletcher Trio
There are very few things that are certain in horse racing, one of which is that Pletcher will be represented in every race throughout the two days of the Breeders Cup program. He has operations set up in every region of the country so the odds of him not having a horse entered in each race are highly unlikely. The area where he has his premier group of runners stationed is the east or more specifically New York. He campaigned Quality Road exclusively on this side of the country along with Life at Ten and Uncle Mo, all top win candidates in their respective races.
Uncle Mo is short on racing experience with only two starts to his name, but long on reputation at this point with a dominating debut victory and an authoritative win last out in the Champagne. There are some issues that keep him from being a prohibitive favorite though, first of them being that both of his wins were over extremely fast surfaces. His win on Travers day was over a surface that was at least a second faster than usual and there were two races at six furlongs that finished up in 1:09 and change. The Champagne was contested after the Frizette, which had a final time of 1:35 3/5 and the Champagne was run in 1:34 2/5. The track variant for that day for the two routes were a 12, which is far lower than the 23 average that the meet has had so far. He will likely go off a short priced favorite in the Juvenile and his odds will probably be far lower than the acceptable value one can take on him.
Quality Road ran some scintillatingly fast races earlier this year with wins in the Donn and Metropolitan Handicaps, his last two efforts at Saratoga leave something to be desired. He set a mild pace in the Whitney Handicap and was narrowly defeated by the closer Blame and the Woodward he beat a weak field in a workout-like time of 1:50. They have had him training up to the Classic since his last start in early September and one has to wonder if the 1 ¼ miles is appropriate distance for this horse. His best races have come either at a one-turn mile or two turns going 1 1/8 miles. In fairness though his two tries at 10 furlongs were over sloppy surfaces chasing Summer Bird. Blame, Zenyatta, and Lookin At Lucky will likely lead the cavalry charge going into the stretch and a horse like Haynesfield on the lead will certainly make things harder for Quality Road in his attempt to win the Classic.
Life At Ten has been a gem of consistency for Pletcher with five wins out of six starts in and no off the board finishes this year. Her only loss of 2010 was the Personal Ensign where she dueled with Rachel Alexandra. She rebounded nicely from that defeat with a win in the Beldame though. The noticeable thing of her last race was her ability to stay a length or two off the leader while riding the rail and making a run at the top of the stretch after waiting to be called on for 7 furlongs. Her chief opponents in the Distaff are a pair of three year old fillies that will likely take a lot of support, Havre de Grace and Blind Luck. They have battled each other in three straight races, all of which had a combined winning margin of less than a length and will have to face older females for the first time. Out of the all the high profile Pletcher horses that will run Life At Ten may offer the best value from a win betting standpoint.
Uncle Mo is short on racing experience with only two starts to his name, but long on reputation at this point with a dominating debut victory and an authoritative win last out in the Champagne. There are some issues that keep him from being a prohibitive favorite though, first of them being that both of his wins were over extremely fast surfaces. His win on Travers day was over a surface that was at least a second faster than usual and there were two races at six furlongs that finished up in 1:09 and change. The Champagne was contested after the Frizette, which had a final time of 1:35 3/5 and the Champagne was run in 1:34 2/5. The track variant for that day for the two routes were a 12, which is far lower than the 23 average that the meet has had so far. He will likely go off a short priced favorite in the Juvenile and his odds will probably be far lower than the acceptable value one can take on him.
Quality Road ran some scintillatingly fast races earlier this year with wins in the Donn and Metropolitan Handicaps, his last two efforts at Saratoga leave something to be desired. He set a mild pace in the Whitney Handicap and was narrowly defeated by the closer Blame and the Woodward he beat a weak field in a workout-like time of 1:50. They have had him training up to the Classic since his last start in early September and one has to wonder if the 1 ¼ miles is appropriate distance for this horse. His best races have come either at a one-turn mile or two turns going 1 1/8 miles. In fairness though his two tries at 10 furlongs were over sloppy surfaces chasing Summer Bird. Blame, Zenyatta, and Lookin At Lucky will likely lead the cavalry charge going into the stretch and a horse like Haynesfield on the lead will certainly make things harder for Quality Road in his attempt to win the Classic.
Life At Ten has been a gem of consistency for Pletcher with five wins out of six starts in and no off the board finishes this year. Her only loss of 2010 was the Personal Ensign where she dueled with Rachel Alexandra. She rebounded nicely from that defeat with a win in the Beldame though. The noticeable thing of her last race was her ability to stay a length or two off the leader while riding the rail and making a run at the top of the stretch after waiting to be called on for 7 furlongs. Her chief opponents in the Distaff are a pair of three year old fillies that will likely take a lot of support, Havre de Grace and Blind Luck. They have battled each other in three straight races, all of which had a combined winning margin of less than a length and will have to face older females for the first time. Out of the all the high profile Pletcher horses that will run Life At Ten may offer the best value from a win betting standpoint.
31 August 2010
There's no dignity in racing in the Distaff?
Andrew Beyer recently penned one of his four articles he writes every year (I wish I had his job). To summarize what 80% the article states, it is that Rachel is past her prime. Not a bold statement at all, but in the second to last paragraph he mentions the option of going the Distaff instead of the Classic as an undignified spot for the legendary filly. The rest of the article can be found here: http://drf.com/news/no-longer-rachel-alexandra-history
"Jackson and Asmussen will have a difficult decision to make about their filly's future. The trainer would only say that he and the owner will "evaluate who she is and where she's at." Her main objective, supposedly, had been the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs and a showdown with Zenyatta, but that seems utterly unrealistic now. Aiming her for the Ladies' Classic would seem beneath her dignity if Zenyatta does challenge males in the main event."
I hope Mr. Beyer is at Saratoga for closing weekend, just so I can ask him in person how going to a grade one championship race is degrading. The Distaff this year looks like a solid lineup if the injury bug is on vacation, Blind Luck is the best of her generation and Devil May Care is a very good nine furlong runner, if Rachel Alexandra is to enter this race it will be a blockbuster race on its own merit. Not only will there be three all star fillies lining up, but also this would be a measuring stick for the three year old fillies against a legendary runner who is no doubt a first ballot hall of famer. How is this a spot that lacks dignity?
As in any case the connections of a racehorse must evaluate how a horse is doing and enter them in spots that the horse can succeed in. There have been two things proven in Rachel Alexandra's past record the first being that she is her most successful going 1 1/8 miles and the secod is she does demonstrably better at Churchill than any other surface, her two biggest margins of victory were over this dirt oval. The Distaff as a long term goal would make the most sense based on the two points stated.
If anything Rachel Alexandra's loss in the Personal Ensign could be discounted by the fact that 1 1/4 miles is probably beyond the scope of her best distance and the intense pace pressure she endured did her in. It happens to best of them, Cigar gave way in the 1996 Pacific Classic after being wedged between horses and going 1:33 for a mile. Skip Away was dueled into defeat in the 1998 Jockey Club Gold Cup after being latched to the blinkered Gentleman for a mile. Chances are that Rachel Alexandra goes to the Beldame due to the spacing from her last race to this one and the real test will be how she performs in the Beldame where she could face Devil May Care.
18 December 2009
Breeders' Cup Headed Towards Folly?
The Breeders' Cup released a round of strategic planning initiatives that seem to be based in questionable logic. These guys are are promising more change than the laundromat where Obama used to wash his college duds. If not timely or based in reason change can be foolish. The Breeders' Cup has undergone massive changes over the last few years. Now it looks like a plan has been hatched that will foolishly squander the appeal the Breeders' Cup held over the public.
Parking the Breeders' Cup at one location is an idea that I have a problem with. They might have missed these problems due to the "group think factor" of the board meeting. One of the broad appeals of the Breeders' Cup was that it was a world class event like the Olympics, The World Cup or the Super Bowl. These world class events travel around and the variety of locations provide these events a national or global home market. The Breeders' Cup benefited from a national home market. The memories of watching the Breeders' Cup at your home track resonated over the years and the Breeders' Cup built this relationship with fans from coast to coast. By parking the event at Santa Anita or Churchill they are going to lose the broad appeal factor. One of the charter goals -promoting the game to a broad audience-of the Breeders' Cup will be ignored. Churchill is a difficult/expensive place to fly to unless you are a box shipped on UPS- it costs more for me to fly to Louisville than to LAX from New York. Santa Anita is a beautiful facility with consistently great weather but it has a surface that is foreign to most American dirt horses. By moving the event around the drawbacks of each venue are mitigated. From the fans perspective parking the Breeders' Cup at one location makes a world class event depreciate into a provincial event.
It seems that the Breeders' Cup is dealing with revenue issues. There are going to be less foals in this corrected economy and thus less revenue for the B.C. This is unfortunate timing for the B.C. as the program has expanded to fourteen races over two days. This epic two day event featuring over ten hours of horse racing had grown a little too large to be consumed whole like the old seven or eight race format. A group supposedly tuning its marketing to short attention span twitter-ers should realize that anything over 140 characters or 4 hours is too much. When your revenue is not sufficient to finance your two day whopper of an event it is time to swallow the pride and cut it back to one day. For example I flew out to Santa Anita from New York this year for the Breeders' Cup program, but I spent Friday on the beach. There is such a thing as too much of a good thing. The signs are there but Breeders' Cup and their hired consultants seem to be ignoring them and stubbornly managing around a plan based in folly.
The emperor has been naked for two years now; it is time someone finally outed this "Win and you are in" marketing as a waste of time. Now it seems they want to expand this ludicrous concept to more races and more countries. When has the winner of a Grade I like the Whitney -or any GI race- ever been excluded from the Breeders' Cup? What about the sprint this year? Did the "win and you're in" series help bolster that field? The intention to help make a complex game easier for casual fans to comprehend is an appropriate marketing goal. However the "win and you're in program" fails on every level. The whole program is absolute humbug to the core. How confusing is it when a horse like Fernelly won the "win and you're in" Del Mar mile but after the race he wasn't really in because he was not nominated? This whole effort is just a waste of time and does nothing for anyone. Hopefully the "Breeders' Cup Racing Series in partnership with North American and European racetracks" is a departure from the "win and you're in" concept, but I fear the emperors extended family will join him in his absurd garb.
The other goal expressed in their initiative is "social and digital media". Social media has become the marketing solution de jour because it is cheap, easy and everyone else is doing it. When everyone is doing something in a massive "little me too" copycat session the cumulative negative effects accumulate quickly, like leaves in a catch basin. Unfortunately because of over exposure social media has become well beyond cliche. The marketing returns that people are so anxiously awaiting- returns that are just a quarter away will never happen. Myspace is dead, facebook is a bore and twitter is the largest jumble of drivel ever assembled in the history of the written word. While it may be compulsory for a entertainment medium to have a presence on these social media outlets- it may be wise to temper the expectations as these fads wind down.
Someone at the Breeders' Cup needs to take charge. The wandering ideas of group think and foreign consultants have threatened to ruin a very good thing. The Breeders' Cup did so many things right- in their rush for change they seem to be dropping the good and picking up many short sighted marketing ideas. Like so many corporate types the "little me too" factor dominates new initiatives. Unfortunately the real factors are being ignored. My advice would be to keep the rotation of tracks, right size the event back down to one day and ten races to match declining foal nominations. If they really want people to become fans of racing they have a very good game to work with. Why beat around the bush with foolish marketing concepts? Make the game an even more attractive concept by lowering takeout and showing the world just how exciting this game can be. Once they win they are in.
Parking the Breeders' Cup at one location is an idea that I have a problem with. They might have missed these problems due to the "group think factor" of the board meeting. One of the broad appeals of the Breeders' Cup was that it was a world class event like the Olympics, The World Cup or the Super Bowl. These world class events travel around and the variety of locations provide these events a national or global home market. The Breeders' Cup benefited from a national home market. The memories of watching the Breeders' Cup at your home track resonated over the years and the Breeders' Cup built this relationship with fans from coast to coast. By parking the event at Santa Anita or Churchill they are going to lose the broad appeal factor. One of the charter goals -promoting the game to a broad audience-of the Breeders' Cup will be ignored. Churchill is a difficult/expensive place to fly to unless you are a box shipped on UPS- it costs more for me to fly to Louisville than to LAX from New York. Santa Anita is a beautiful facility with consistently great weather but it has a surface that is foreign to most American dirt horses. By moving the event around the drawbacks of each venue are mitigated. From the fans perspective parking the Breeders' Cup at one location makes a world class event depreciate into a provincial event.
It seems that the Breeders' Cup is dealing with revenue issues. There are going to be less foals in this corrected economy and thus less revenue for the B.C. This is unfortunate timing for the B.C. as the program has expanded to fourteen races over two days. This epic two day event featuring over ten hours of horse racing had grown a little too large to be consumed whole like the old seven or eight race format. A group supposedly tuning its marketing to short attention span twitter-ers should realize that anything over 140 characters or 4 hours is too much. When your revenue is not sufficient to finance your two day whopper of an event it is time to swallow the pride and cut it back to one day. For example I flew out to Santa Anita from New York this year for the Breeders' Cup program, but I spent Friday on the beach. There is such a thing as too much of a good thing. The signs are there but Breeders' Cup and their hired consultants seem to be ignoring them and stubbornly managing around a plan based in folly.
The emperor has been naked for two years now; it is time someone finally outed this "Win and you are in" marketing as a waste of time. Now it seems they want to expand this ludicrous concept to more races and more countries. When has the winner of a Grade I like the Whitney -or any GI race- ever been excluded from the Breeders' Cup? What about the sprint this year? Did the "win and you're in" series help bolster that field? The intention to help make a complex game easier for casual fans to comprehend is an appropriate marketing goal. However the "win and you're in program" fails on every level. The whole program is absolute humbug to the core. How confusing is it when a horse like Fernelly won the "win and you're in" Del Mar mile but after the race he wasn't really in because he was not nominated? This whole effort is just a waste of time and does nothing for anyone. Hopefully the "Breeders' Cup Racing Series in partnership with North American and European racetracks" is a departure from the "win and you're in" concept, but I fear the emperors extended family will join him in his absurd garb.
The other goal expressed in their initiative is "social and digital media". Social media has become the marketing solution de jour because it is cheap, easy and everyone else is doing it. When everyone is doing something in a massive "little me too" copycat session the cumulative negative effects accumulate quickly, like leaves in a catch basin. Unfortunately because of over exposure social media has become well beyond cliche. The marketing returns that people are so anxiously awaiting- returns that are just a quarter away will never happen. Myspace is dead, facebook is a bore and twitter is the largest jumble of drivel ever assembled in the history of the written word. While it may be compulsory for a entertainment medium to have a presence on these social media outlets- it may be wise to temper the expectations as these fads wind down.
Someone at the Breeders' Cup needs to take charge. The wandering ideas of group think and foreign consultants have threatened to ruin a very good thing. The Breeders' Cup did so many things right- in their rush for change they seem to be dropping the good and picking up many short sighted marketing ideas. Like so many corporate types the "little me too" factor dominates new initiatives. Unfortunately the real factors are being ignored. My advice would be to keep the rotation of tracks, right size the event back down to one day and ten races to match declining foal nominations. If they really want people to become fans of racing they have a very good game to work with. Why beat around the bush with foolish marketing concepts? Make the game an even more attractive concept by lowering takeout and showing the world just how exciting this game can be. Once they win they are in.
07 November 2009
Breeders' Cup Trip Report
Arcadia Ca - After driving the limo all night on Thursday I caught the first flight out of Kennedy for Burbank on Friday morning. After pulling an all-nighter and then flying all morning, going to the track was out of the question. With the sleep situation critical I watched the Friday B.C. card from the hotel. After sleeping for 12 hours Friday night, I was roaring and ready to go for the Saturday card.
visually appealing scenery at Santa Anita photo credit East Of Allen
Santa Anita is a facility with visual appeal. This venue combines natural beauty with the architecture of the early 20th century. Santa Anita is right up there with American top-class racing venues like Arlington and Keeneland. Perhaps the best part about Santa Anita is the weather. The weather is a gift from the heavens-a combination of the warm sun of the desert with a hint of cool salty ocean air- a welcome respite from the brutal cold of New York winter. The only blemish is the smog that obscures the view of the huge mountains that abut the facility.
International Superstar L. Dettori up on Delegator
There was much bemoaning about the Breeders' Cup running in consecutive years at Santa Anita. However after witnessing the spectacle first hand, those grousers are wrong. With Santa Anita you are all but ensured grade I weather, the facility is beautiful and the area has outstanding infrastructure. Santa Anita is an easy place for horses and people like me to travel to. With great weather and fast/firm there is little chance for a washout. Who can forget the disastrous Monmouth Breeders' Cup; sloppy tracks and bog turf courses are not conducive to good racing or safety. That weekend will be remembered more for the ill fated George Washington than any of the winners. Even the last Belmont Breeders' Cup was a cold and nasty day. If the Breeders' Cup ever wanted a permanent home, Santa Anita would be a good choice.
packed grandstand and apron
Comparing a regular Saturday at Aqueduct to Saturday at the Breeders' Cup really exposes the problems of New York racing. Racing in New York seems to be dominated by only one type of fan, the middle aged to elderly urban working class male degenerate. At Santa Anita there was great diversity in the crowd. Everyone from the horseplayer to the tycoon to the rural horselover to the teenage girl with a horse fetish was in attendance. It was a nice mix and people were friendly, the strangers I was sitting with were even nice enough to invite me out to dinner when I told them I was traveling alone.
Goldikova
The races were a nice mixed of longshots and relieable favorites. It was no secret but dirt horses and those stretching out are poor bets on synthetic surfaces. Once again not one horse prepped on dirt won a race at the Breeders' Cup. Horses cutting back in distance with previous turf or synthetic success dominated the races. It seems like the public is yet to master synthetic surface wagering, but the track plays fair. Some of these grousers dont like these new surfaces but this seems like the mindless complaining of people that refuse to adapt to change. For me it was a fair day in the parimutuel department. Goldikova was a short priced wagering highlight and I had a few bucks on longshot Furthest Land.
Furthest Land lands a mini-score
The real highlight of the day was undoubtedly Zenyatta. As a New York guy I never developed a Zenyatta-affection, but my heart softened for her today. She is a big, regal but smart looking mare; something really special. There is something different about her, it looks like she isn't trying but she covers so much ground. Mike Smith "She is sent from God. It is His filly. I think he wanted a horse and sent her down her to race against everybody" Fourteen for Fourteen can not be marginalized, the naysayers have been silenced.
Crowd before the classic
At Santa Anita she has a huge following. Trainer John Sherriffs "She loves the crowd. When people yell at her she does her little prance. I don't know. She has a relationship with her fans" There was this one part in the parade where the crowd erupted in applause, Zenyatta wheeled around, stopped and started to paw the ground and prance, the crowd went absolutely nuts for her- it was like the horse was mugging for the crowd. It was nice to see so much affection for a horse. When she won it was like the home team won a ballgame. It was great validation for a crowd that had largely showed up to see her. It was the kind of win that will mint a few thousand new racing fans.
Thousands of these signs filled Santa Anita photo credit AP
visually appealing scenery at Santa Anita photo credit East Of Allen
Santa Anita is a facility with visual appeal. This venue combines natural beauty with the architecture of the early 20th century. Santa Anita is right up there with American top-class racing venues like Arlington and Keeneland. Perhaps the best part about Santa Anita is the weather. The weather is a gift from the heavens-a combination of the warm sun of the desert with a hint of cool salty ocean air- a welcome respite from the brutal cold of New York winter. The only blemish is the smog that obscures the view of the huge mountains that abut the facility.
International Superstar L. Dettori up on Delegator
There was much bemoaning about the Breeders' Cup running in consecutive years at Santa Anita. However after witnessing the spectacle first hand, those grousers are wrong. With Santa Anita you are all but ensured grade I weather, the facility is beautiful and the area has outstanding infrastructure. Santa Anita is an easy place for horses and people like me to travel to. With great weather and fast/firm there is little chance for a washout. Who can forget the disastrous Monmouth Breeders' Cup; sloppy tracks and bog turf courses are not conducive to good racing or safety. That weekend will be remembered more for the ill fated George Washington than any of the winners. Even the last Belmont Breeders' Cup was a cold and nasty day. If the Breeders' Cup ever wanted a permanent home, Santa Anita would be a good choice.
packed grandstand and apron
Comparing a regular Saturday at Aqueduct to Saturday at the Breeders' Cup really exposes the problems of New York racing. Racing in New York seems to be dominated by only one type of fan, the middle aged to elderly urban working class male degenerate. At Santa Anita there was great diversity in the crowd. Everyone from the horseplayer to the tycoon to the rural horselover to the teenage girl with a horse fetish was in attendance. It was a nice mix and people were friendly, the strangers I was sitting with were even nice enough to invite me out to dinner when I told them I was traveling alone.
Goldikova
The races were a nice mixed of longshots and relieable favorites. It was no secret but dirt horses and those stretching out are poor bets on synthetic surfaces. Once again not one horse prepped on dirt won a race at the Breeders' Cup. Horses cutting back in distance with previous turf or synthetic success dominated the races. It seems like the public is yet to master synthetic surface wagering, but the track plays fair. Some of these grousers dont like these new surfaces but this seems like the mindless complaining of people that refuse to adapt to change. For me it was a fair day in the parimutuel department. Goldikova was a short priced wagering highlight and I had a few bucks on longshot Furthest Land.
Furthest Land lands a mini-score
The real highlight of the day was undoubtedly Zenyatta. As a New York guy I never developed a Zenyatta-affection, but my heart softened for her today. She is a big, regal but smart looking mare; something really special. There is something different about her, it looks like she isn't trying but she covers so much ground. Mike Smith "She is sent from God. It is His filly. I think he wanted a horse and sent her down her to race against everybody" Fourteen for Fourteen can not be marginalized, the naysayers have been silenced.
Crowd before the classic
At Santa Anita she has a huge following. Trainer John Sherriffs "She loves the crowd. When people yell at her she does her little prance. I don't know. She has a relationship with her fans" There was this one part in the parade where the crowd erupted in applause, Zenyatta wheeled around, stopped and started to paw the ground and prance, the crowd went absolutely nuts for her- it was like the horse was mugging for the crowd. It was nice to see so much affection for a horse. When she won it was like the home team won a ballgame. It was great validation for a crowd that had largely showed up to see her. It was the kind of win that will mint a few thousand new racing fans.
Thousands of these signs filled Santa Anita photo credit AP
06 November 2009
The Sport Of Kings As The King Of Sports
TVG was generous enough to sponsor the B.C. Mile. The B.C. Mile sponsor's parent company Betfair may just hold the key to making the Sport of Kings the king of sports once again. What Betfair did overseas is nothing short of revolutionizing punting. Every horseplayer that utilizes Betfair can not only bet horses at a fixed price, but they can lay horses that they feel are likely losers. Solid opinions based in reason are rewarded. Technology has changed the world, the betting exchange can change the horseracing experience for the fans. With the betting exchange, racing becomes a game of reason exposing competing games like slots as gambling vice. Betfair is a massive success and has allowed Betfair to purchase a controlling interest in America's TVG network.
The effect of a betting exchange is the empowerment of horseplayers. Instead of an parimutuel exotic betting lotto, where the chase of big scores can lead to long losing streaks, reason is the chief driver of the betting exchange. The betting exchange is the "Holy Grail" of technology that racing in America needs. Decades of marketing has failed to draw new generations to the racetrack; handles are tumbling and once packed grandstands have degenerated into lonely dumps. The betting exchanges is the breakthrough that will spark the renaissance that will bring horseracing to a new generation.
Free from much of the traditional restraint of Europe, America is a place of innovation. But America still uses a tote system from the 19th century while horseracing in the UK has moved on to the 21st century. There is a long history of American and Anglo cooperation, it is time the betting exchange comes to American racing. When the players can lay horses along with betting horses the game has the great appeal of reason. With so much competition in the gaming market a horseracing exchange like Betfair can propel racing above the gaming competition and expose games like fantasy sports as unthinking obsession. If Betfair was available in the States the Breeders' Cup could be an more appealing event. Would you take my fixed prices on the Breeder's Cup Classic?
Mine That Bird- I do not fancy his chances tomorrow, his race in West Virginia was a horror. I will lay at 20-1.
Colonel John- Proven over the surface and distance, would bet if I could find 20-1.
Summer Bird- An unknown quantity over the synthetic but proven over 12 furlongs. Conflicting signals so bet or lay for me.
Zenyatta- Morning line favorite steps well up in class, faces a large field for the first time at a new distance. Laying at 4-1.
Twice Over- Nice record and he is coming into his own late this year. No bet or lay from me.
Richard's Kid- Proven over the distance for a sharp barn, would bet at 15-1+.
Gio Ponti- Maybe the best horse in America not named Rachel, betting at 15-1+.
Einstein- Hard knocker may have lost a step. Not sure so no bet or lay.
Girolamo- Up and comer could be a future monster. Would bet at 30-1+.
Rip Van Winkle- Hoof issues are scary, no bet or lay.
Regal Ransom- Seems like he would have to be very lucky on the front end to hang on. I would lay at 20-1.
Quality Road- Was going to be my pick in the derby, I would gamble that synthetics are not his thing, would lay at 15-1.
Awesome Gem- Probable longest shot on the board, bettors could get 50-1 on the parimutuel tote, no bet or lay from me.
The effect of a betting exchange is the empowerment of horseplayers. Instead of an parimutuel exotic betting lotto, where the chase of big scores can lead to long losing streaks, reason is the chief driver of the betting exchange. The betting exchange is the "Holy Grail" of technology that racing in America needs. Decades of marketing has failed to draw new generations to the racetrack; handles are tumbling and once packed grandstands have degenerated into lonely dumps. The betting exchanges is the breakthrough that will spark the renaissance that will bring horseracing to a new generation.
Free from much of the traditional restraint of Europe, America is a place of innovation. But America still uses a tote system from the 19th century while horseracing in the UK has moved on to the 21st century. There is a long history of American and Anglo cooperation, it is time the betting exchange comes to American racing. When the players can lay horses along with betting horses the game has the great appeal of reason. With so much competition in the gaming market a horseracing exchange like Betfair can propel racing above the gaming competition and expose games like fantasy sports as unthinking obsession. If Betfair was available in the States the Breeders' Cup could be an more appealing event. Would you take my fixed prices on the Breeder's Cup Classic?
Mine That Bird- I do not fancy his chances tomorrow, his race in West Virginia was a horror. I will lay at 20-1.
Colonel John- Proven over the surface and distance, would bet if I could find 20-1.
Summer Bird- An unknown quantity over the synthetic but proven over 12 furlongs. Conflicting signals so bet or lay for me.
Zenyatta- Morning line favorite steps well up in class, faces a large field for the first time at a new distance. Laying at 4-1.
Twice Over- Nice record and he is coming into his own late this year. No bet or lay from me.
Richard's Kid- Proven over the distance for a sharp barn, would bet at 15-1+.
Gio Ponti- Maybe the best horse in America not named Rachel, betting at 15-1+.
Einstein- Hard knocker may have lost a step. Not sure so no bet or lay.
Girolamo- Up and comer could be a future monster. Would bet at 30-1+.
Rip Van Winkle- Hoof issues are scary, no bet or lay.
Regal Ransom- Seems like he would have to be very lucky on the front end to hang on. I would lay at 20-1.
Quality Road- Was going to be my pick in the derby, I would gamble that synthetics are not his thing, would lay at 15-1.
Awesome Gem- Probable longest shot on the board, bettors could get 50-1 on the parimutuel tote, no bet or lay from me.
07 October 2009
The Interpatation Of Saturday's B.C. Preps
The day had a wet forecast looming over it like a terminal prognosis. It thinned out the crowd and dimmed the spirits of those in attendance. However the early part of the day was dry, and it looked like the meteorologists were going to be completely wrong about a wet day of persistent light rain. They only thing they were wrong about was the intensity of the rain. Instead of light rain Belmont was walloped with a biblical strength drenching monsoon that quickly turned the fast track into brackish stream. The rain was cold, it was intense and it dominated the races, effecting times and results. The big story to emerge from these races was not a breakthrough performance and brilliant equine form but the utter dominance of the heavens over the results on Saturday.
The first stakes race of the day proceeded without any weather related interference. The heavy favorite Music Note was able to break out of the Pletcher trap set for her on the rail and draw off to a facile win.
While the horses were in the paddock for the Vosburgh the heavens opened up. A few miles to the north a powerful burst lightning illuminated the sky and deep growling thunder shook the grandstand. Within a matter of minutes the fast track was inundated with water. However the results were fairly formful with GI winner Kodiac Kowboy catching Fabulous Strike late near the wire.
The Flower Bowl was the wettest of the days races. This race was run in the most intense portion of the storm. The rain was coming down as hard as rain can fall from the heavens. It surely dominated the results here. Very slow fractions and an undoubtedly slick grass effected the results. However reason still held sway here. The winner Pure Clan is a Grade I filly and was the second choice in the wagering. I can only imagine that one or more of her competitors did not take kindly to being pelted with rain or the slick conditions under hoof.
The Turf Classic was also run in a driving rainstorm. Rarely are turf races run in these conditions. Visibility was poor as we could barely make out the runners on the backstretch. If someone told me that Interpatation was going to win this race wire to wire I would thing that they were delusional or quite confused. Fortunately for Bobby Barbara they would have been right. In a result that defied all reason we witnessed a horse in the winners circle who had not won in over two years; his last score in a ungraded race at Philly. Somehow Interpataion outgamed the best American older horse in training.
You would need a super-duper ego or passion fueled desperation to arrive at this interpretation pre-race. This result was in the spirit of outlandish interpretations like Freud's proclamation that all men are driven by the want of sexual relations with their mama. This is the race where the heavens and the deluge of water had the greatest effect. This was a strange race, run under perilous conditions. It was like have a yacht race in a typhoon; the conditions had greater effect on the results than the competition.
The Jockey Club Gold Cup was run over an extremely sloppy track. The absurdity of the Turf Classic was followed by a reasonable result. Summer Bird who has confirmed his affinity for wet racing surfaces outgamed Quality Road late for the win. This was a slow and tiring wet surface so it makes sense that the only horses in the field confirmed to like 12 furlongs was best in the lane at 10 furlongs.
Once again this years Breeder's Cup betting will be complicated by more surface questions. Significant horses like Gio Ponti and Summer Bird will have big questions associated with their handling of the pro ride surface. Will there be a transition issue out of these very wet races. Sometimes reasons yields to the absurd in racing as the results of the Turf Classic illustrated. Take these results with a grain of salt and consider the challenge of going from a brackish river of extreme rain and mud, to the arid strip of polymer, rubber and sand at Santa Anita. Compared to Belmont last Saturday; Santa Anita might as well be a synthetic planet somewhere between the moon and Venus. These are two extreme surfaces where just about anything can and will happen.
The first stakes race of the day proceeded without any weather related interference. The heavy favorite Music Note was able to break out of the Pletcher trap set for her on the rail and draw off to a facile win.
While the horses were in the paddock for the Vosburgh the heavens opened up. A few miles to the north a powerful burst lightning illuminated the sky and deep growling thunder shook the grandstand. Within a matter of minutes the fast track was inundated with water. However the results were fairly formful with GI winner Kodiac Kowboy catching Fabulous Strike late near the wire.
The Flower Bowl was the wettest of the days races. This race was run in the most intense portion of the storm. The rain was coming down as hard as rain can fall from the heavens. It surely dominated the results here. Very slow fractions and an undoubtedly slick grass effected the results. However reason still held sway here. The winner Pure Clan is a Grade I filly and was the second choice in the wagering. I can only imagine that one or more of her competitors did not take kindly to being pelted with rain or the slick conditions under hoof.
The Turf Classic was also run in a driving rainstorm. Rarely are turf races run in these conditions. Visibility was poor as we could barely make out the runners on the backstretch. If someone told me that Interpatation was going to win this race wire to wire I would thing that they were delusional or quite confused. Fortunately for Bobby Barbara they would have been right. In a result that defied all reason we witnessed a horse in the winners circle who had not won in over two years; his last score in a ungraded race at Philly. Somehow Interpataion outgamed the best American older horse in training.
You would need a super-duper ego or passion fueled desperation to arrive at this interpretation pre-race. This result was in the spirit of outlandish interpretations like Freud's proclamation that all men are driven by the want of sexual relations with their mama. This is the race where the heavens and the deluge of water had the greatest effect. This was a strange race, run under perilous conditions. It was like have a yacht race in a typhoon; the conditions had greater effect on the results than the competition.
The Jockey Club Gold Cup was run over an extremely sloppy track. The absurdity of the Turf Classic was followed by a reasonable result. Summer Bird who has confirmed his affinity for wet racing surfaces outgamed Quality Road late for the win. This was a slow and tiring wet surface so it makes sense that the only horses in the field confirmed to like 12 furlongs was best in the lane at 10 furlongs.
Once again this years Breeder's Cup betting will be complicated by more surface questions. Significant horses like Gio Ponti and Summer Bird will have big questions associated with their handling of the pro ride surface. Will there be a transition issue out of these very wet races. Sometimes reasons yields to the absurd in racing as the results of the Turf Classic illustrated. Take these results with a grain of salt and consider the challenge of going from a brackish river of extreme rain and mud, to the arid strip of polymer, rubber and sand at Santa Anita. Compared to Belmont last Saturday; Santa Anita might as well be a synthetic planet somewhere between the moon and Venus. These are two extreme surfaces where just about anything can and will happen.
30 December 2008
Horse Of The Year
The horse of the year ran in the Ladies Classic, undefeated Zenyatta deserves the honors. Curlin started the year off in sterling form, had an aggressive campaign planned that terminated as his form steadily waned. Zanyatta was steady and strong throughout the year winning on all the Socal tracks. Her ace in the hole is that she scored on dirt at Oaklawn. To put an exclamation point on the whole body of work her win in the Ladies Classic was absolutely brilliant.
Zenyatta won all seven of the Graded Stakes races she ran in and improved as the year went on. Her year was a steady accent. She has the potential to be a legend like Personal Ensign the other main track undefeated filly champion if she comes back for more. The fact that she won on dirt puts her over the edge, the dual surface wins are something that Curlin could not match. This year was the year of the Z fillys in racing, overseas we had Zarkava and in North America we had Zenyatta. The undefeated Z filly should be awarded the honors.
Curlin started the year off with such promise. Two rousing victories in Dubai and then an aggressive campaign lined up that was supposed to end in Paris. While we commend the connections for taking a sporting risk the end result was a let down. The turf was quickly abandoned and the Bredders Cup was sort of an after thought after the trip to Japan seemed like too much. The latter part of Curlin's campaign did not have the same level of success as his fall 2007 winter 2008 campaign had. He fell far short of that and failed to take the big prize the Breeders Cup classic, a race he had every chance to win. Curlin raced on three surfaces but could only manage to win on dirt. His turf race was a gutsy placing but was far from the extraordinary wins Zenyatta racked up over different tracks and surfaces. We have to give Curlin and "E" for effort and a "E: for racing as a four year old but the HOY goes to the filly.
Zenyatta won all seven of the Graded Stakes races she ran in and improved as the year went on. Her year was a steady accent. She has the potential to be a legend like Personal Ensign the other main track undefeated filly champion if she comes back for more. The fact that she won on dirt puts her over the edge, the dual surface wins are something that Curlin could not match. This year was the year of the Z fillys in racing, overseas we had Zarkava and in North America we had Zenyatta. The undefeated Z filly should be awarded the honors.
Curlin started the year off with such promise. Two rousing victories in Dubai and then an aggressive campaign lined up that was supposed to end in Paris. While we commend the connections for taking a sporting risk the end result was a let down. The turf was quickly abandoned and the Bredders Cup was sort of an after thought after the trip to Japan seemed like too much. The latter part of Curlin's campaign did not have the same level of success as his fall 2007 winter 2008 campaign had. He fell far short of that and failed to take the big prize the Breeders Cup classic, a race he had every chance to win. Curlin raced on three surfaces but could only manage to win on dirt. His turf race was a gutsy placing but was far from the extraordinary wins Zenyatta racked up over different tracks and surfaces. We have to give Curlin and "E" for effort and a "E: for racing as a four year old but the HOY goes to the filly.
28 October 2008
Good Thing The 2008 Breeders Cup Was Not At Belmont
Breeders cup day at Belmont started out okay weather wise but by the 5th race the winds must have kicked up to 50 kts. Trees were swaying violently, flexing there branches to their limits. It was cold, windy and it was raining vertically. It would have been a horrible day to sit in that grandstand and a unfortunate day to hold a breeders Cup meet. The only race I watched from my usual perch in the grandstand was my Formal Degree's romp in the Knickerbocker. I quickly ran for cover to my indoor seat.
Weather aside being said Belmont is a great place to watch the Breeders Cup while it is out of town. The underrated NYRA customer service office was kind enough to reserve a few personal workstation seats for me. When the new united tote terminals came on line four years ago horseplayers complained, but these modern terminals work great as a personal monitor. Instead of listening to nagging at home or standing at some urine drenched OTB and I had a my own personal monitor/wagering terminal right at my personal workstation. Nice way to watch the races and I was able to wager right up to the last second with no delay or issue. I pounded out bet after bet with clarity of mind in total comfort. I had sound and the choice of the ESPN or live feed along with every other track running in the USA.
Weather aside being said Belmont is a great place to watch the Breeders Cup while it is out of town. The underrated NYRA customer service office was kind enough to reserve a few personal workstation seats for me. When the new united tote terminals came on line four years ago horseplayers complained, but these modern terminals work great as a personal monitor. Instead of listening to nagging at home or standing at some urine drenched OTB and I had a my own personal monitor/wagering terminal right at my personal workstation. Nice way to watch the races and I was able to wager right up to the last second with no delay or issue. I pounded out bet after bet with clarity of mind in total comfort. I had sound and the choice of the ESPN or live feed along with every other track running in the USA.
26 October 2008
Breeders Cup 2008 Debrief
Seemed like many people hated this years Breeders Cup. From the two day format, to the female races on Friday, to the surface and the European dominated results many people had a variety of reasons to base their gripes. The heat did not cause havoc like I thought it would and it was a improvement of bog/monsoon at Monmouth or icebox Belmont. What about Trevor Denman? Denman was the comeback of the year. After two years of calling the wrong names and missing moves I thought he was a toast and a clear has been. This year he did a 180 and prepped like a student studying for the SAT. He was prepared and ready. Trevor called 14 great races over the two days. This Breeders Cup was a rousing success and I enjoyed both days.
The day format is okay and I am glad the Friday races were a quick 5 race sequence. These races were over in two hours or so and did not drag on forever. The choice to move the female races to Friday was a sharp choice. It gave the day a theme in line with other classic race weekends and gave these races a stand alone stature of their own. The worst suggestion I read this week was to move all of the new BC races to Friday. A day of ungraded races with no tenure would provide zero interest in the Friday races and doom them to failure. Ladies day provided a theme and provided proper Balance two the two days. The idea was a winner.
For years Americans have bred cheap speed horses and run them over speed favoring bullrings. This is the valid argument for synthetics. The culmination of the cheap speed breeding was the GI win of Sinister Minister in the Bluegrass a few years ago. This short sighted breeding of horses have resulted in short horses that can not go a distance of ground and break down. This is where the synthetic factor kicks in. This is why the Europeans finished one-two in the classic. The bright side of synthetic surfaces is that it promotes breeding stouter horses that can run far. The days of cheap speed, precocious breakdown candidates and numbered. I thought the races were formful and all horses returned safe and sound.
Most of my buddies at Belmont and in the OTB's and simulcast joints did not share my feelings on the 2008 Breeders Cup. They did not care for the results and the surface. Politically correct people assumed an "I'm so offended posture" in reaction to Ladies Day. Horseplayers and horse racing fans are notoriously reluctant to embrace change. However with time I feel these changes will resonate and will ultimately lead to the expansion of the Breeders Cup.
The day format is okay and I am glad the Friday races were a quick 5 race sequence. These races were over in two hours or so and did not drag on forever. The choice to move the female races to Friday was a sharp choice. It gave the day a theme in line with other classic race weekends and gave these races a stand alone stature of their own. The worst suggestion I read this week was to move all of the new BC races to Friday. A day of ungraded races with no tenure would provide zero interest in the Friday races and doom them to failure. Ladies day provided a theme and provided proper Balance two the two days. The idea was a winner.
For years Americans have bred cheap speed horses and run them over speed favoring bullrings. This is the valid argument for synthetics. The culmination of the cheap speed breeding was the GI win of Sinister Minister in the Bluegrass a few years ago. This short sighted breeding of horses have resulted in short horses that can not go a distance of ground and break down. This is where the synthetic factor kicks in. This is why the Europeans finished one-two in the classic. The bright side of synthetic surfaces is that it promotes breeding stouter horses that can run far. The days of cheap speed, precocious breakdown candidates and numbered. I thought the races were formful and all horses returned safe and sound.
Most of my buddies at Belmont and in the OTB's and simulcast joints did not share my feelings on the 2008 Breeders Cup. They did not care for the results and the surface. Politically correct people assumed an "I'm so offended posture" in reaction to Ladies Day. Horseplayers and horse racing fans are notoriously reluctant to embrace change. However with time I feel these changes will resonate and will ultimately lead to the expansion of the Breeders Cup.
24 October 2008
Ladies Day Picks
Ladies day has finally arrived. Looks like a gorgeous warm day at Santa Anita. Hopefully racing fans can open their minds and accept a new concept. Change is not always bad.
BC FM Sprint
Looks like a ton of pace in here. Using Magnificence, Intangaroo, Miraculous Miss and Ventura in pick 3's. Win money on longshots Magnificence and Miraculous Miss.
BC FM Turf
Think that Mauralakana can bounce back here and run them down late. Will also use Halfway To Heaven and Forever Together.
BC Ladies Classic
Zenyatta is undefeat but is facing the toughest field of her career. I respect her but will also use Music Note and Cocoa Beach.
BC FM Sprint
Looks like a ton of pace in here. Using Magnificence, Intangaroo, Miraculous Miss and Ventura in pick 3's. Win money on longshots Magnificence and Miraculous Miss.
BC FM Turf
Think that Mauralakana can bounce back here and run them down late. Will also use Halfway To Heaven and Forever Together.
BC Ladies Classic
Zenyatta is undefeat but is facing the toughest field of her career. I respect her but will also use Music Note and Cocoa Beach.
30 September 2008
European Acclimation Issues At Santa Anita
With the new pro-ride track at Santa Anita the Breeders Cup is expecting a large contingent of European horses to contest the cup this year. While the Europeans may like the sound of a $5 million race over a synthetic surface I am not sure if their horses will like the weather. The temperature on track has been close to 100 degrees Fahrenheit. European horses that are used to cool fall temperatures are going to be in for a shock when they arrive in California and it is not only hot but on fire. The end of October is the fire season in California. If these tempertures continue and a Santa Ana wind develops the canyons surronding Santa Anita will surely ignite. Turning a tempertuire issue into a air quality-temperturte issue.
Spirit One won the Arlington Million with authority. He was bet all the way down to 9-2 in last weekends Goodwood. The horse was visually washed out and having issues with the heat in the post parade. While it has been hot before when the Breeders Cup was run at Santa Anita never before has it been run over a synthetic surface. This Pro-Ride track is dark in color and it absorbs the heat. Combine that with the odor of the polymers, plastics and soft rubber it is not a pleasant experience for horse or rider. From DRF: Bejarano's agent, Joe Ferrer, said Bejarano told him, "I have never been so hot in my life."
Spirit One won the Arlington Million with authority. He was bet all the way down to 9-2 in last weekends Goodwood. The horse was visually washed out and having issues with the heat in the post parade. While it has been hot before when the Breeders Cup was run at Santa Anita never before has it been run over a synthetic surface. This Pro-Ride track is dark in color and it absorbs the heat. Combine that with the odor of the polymers, plastics and soft rubber it is not a pleasant experience for horse or rider. From DRF: Bejarano's agent, Joe Ferrer, said Bejarano told him, "I have never been so hot in my life."
29 August 2008
International Main Track Invasion
Many of the top American main track races are being targeted by International raiders. Usually a turf invasion is expected but this main track raid is a pleasant surprise. From East and west many of the top races are going to have an International presence. All of these horses may converge in the Breeders Cup classic. There have not been many positive things to say about synthetic surfaces however an increased international presence is a positive side effect this year. Half of the horses in the gate of the Breeders Cup Classic could be foreign raiders which could make for interesting Breeders Cup Betting.
Jalil, the $9.7 million Darley purchase makes his North American debut in the Waquoit Stakes on Saturday at Suffolk Downs. His future plans include the Mass Cap and the Classic.
From the east Casino Drive is confirmed to return to America shortly and will target the Goodwood at Santa Anita with the long term goal the Breeders Cup Classic.
Arlington Million winner Spirit One surprisingly will try the dirt in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on his way to the Breeders Cup Classic.
Henrythenavigator the leading Irish miler is being pointed to the Breeders Cup Classic as well. As of now this one has not raced beyond one mile.
Duke Of Marmalade is undefeated this year in Group I middle distance races and will likely skip the Arc De Triumph. Instead he will race in the Irish Champion stakes and has a date in the Breeders Cup in either the Turf or Classic.
Jalil, the $9.7 million Darley purchase makes his North American debut in the Waquoit Stakes on Saturday at Suffolk Downs. His future plans include the Mass Cap and the Classic.
From the east Casino Drive is confirmed to return to America shortly and will target the Goodwood at Santa Anita with the long term goal the Breeders Cup Classic.
Arlington Million winner Spirit One surprisingly will try the dirt in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on his way to the Breeders Cup Classic.
Henrythenavigator the leading Irish miler is being pointed to the Breeders Cup Classic as well. As of now this one has not raced beyond one mile.
Duke Of Marmalade is undefeated this year in Group I middle distance races and will likely skip the Arc De Triumph. Instead he will race in the Irish Champion stakes and has a date in the Breeders Cup in either the Turf or Classic.
27 August 2008
Breeder's Cup Advance Look
Two months out from the Breeders Cup and the storyline is taking shape. With the switch to the new Pro-Ride surface Europeans will be lured into races traditionally dominated by the Americans like the Classic or Distaff(Ladies Classic). For a great run down of all the contenders check out this sharp resource that provides tremendous information on Breeders Cup Betting. Bodog has a tremendous amount of information on all of the Breeders Cup contenders and is the place where savvy handicappers make their plays.
Classic
This year is wide open if defending champ Curlin does not enter. IEAH stable has many legit chances throughout the Breeder's Cup card, however the likely favorite for the race Big Brown is a complete and total toss. This will be a great race to find some value with a favorite that only has a small chance of winning.
Top Competitors
Go Between- Confirmed synthetic lover, his win in the Pacific Classic as the favorite validated his synthetic surface form.
Henrythenavigator- undefeated in Europe this year and has won races gamely. Check out his last win in the Sussex stakes. Giants Causeway who scored in the Arc and just missed in the 2000 classic won the Sussex stakes for the Ballydoyle yard.
Colonel John- Confirmed distance ability and gameness in Travers score. Already is a confirmed synthetic lover as the facile winner of the Santa Anita derby.
Breeders Cup Turf
Year after year this race is dominated by European shippers. This year the local west coast turf contingent is very weak. The leading local horse Spring House does not class up at all. All of the top contenders ship in from Europe.
Archipenko- Ran well in the Arlington Million in defeat. Has the right run style for the ultra firm, ultra tight Santa Anita course. A force if he ships over.
Duke Of Marmalade-This guy has developed into a force for the Ballydoyle Yard. The Duke is undefeated this year. He confirmed his top form at 12 furlongs taking the King George at Ascot by an astounding 9 lengths. He recently added the Group I Juddmonte International to his tally, his fifth Group I score of the year. Needs to hold top form for two more months. The Arc may take the starch out of him. Follow him closely.
Soldier Of Fortune-O'Briens other horse for the turf will be live if he makes it in.
Breeder's Cup Mile
Kip Deville- has been sensational in his two starts and has conformed form at Santa Anita taking the Kilroe mile there in 2007. This Oklahoma bred dominates this usually wide open race.
Whatsthescript- Local horse won the Del Mar mile the other day. Usually needs pace to make his run and there is typically great pace in the Breeder's Cup Mile. Legit contender with a hometown advantage.
Out Of Control- Frankel's Stud TNT import is solid at a mile on the turf. This one will beat Big Brown in the Monmouth Stakes on 13SEP. You heard it here first. He has won in California. p[']
TVG Sprint
Benny The Bull has been phenomenal this year and his retirement leaves a gapping void in the division. This promises to be a wide open race. The other power horse in the division Midnight Lute will stay away from the rubber and jelly cable for synthetic hater Baffert. I would lean towards the local California horses in this race.
In Summation- loves synthetic and may be a price after a few tough defeats. Top pick at a price.
Rebellion- Close second in Pat O'Brien at Del Mar. His deep closing style may work well as the sprint sometimes completely falls apart, especially on synthetic.
Lucky Island- East coast division leader will be the favorite in the Forego on Saturday at Saratoga. Won the Tom Fool over a suspect field. He can rate and is from a top barn. The Pro-Ride surface would be his first race over synthetic.
Classic
This year is wide open if defending champ Curlin does not enter. IEAH stable has many legit chances throughout the Breeder's Cup card, however the likely favorite for the race Big Brown is a complete and total toss. This will be a great race to find some value with a favorite that only has a small chance of winning.
Top Competitors
Go Between- Confirmed synthetic lover, his win in the Pacific Classic as the favorite validated his synthetic surface form.
Henrythenavigator- undefeated in Europe this year and has won races gamely. Check out his last win in the Sussex stakes. Giants Causeway who scored in the Arc and just missed in the 2000 classic won the Sussex stakes for the Ballydoyle yard.
Colonel John- Confirmed distance ability and gameness in Travers score. Already is a confirmed synthetic lover as the facile winner of the Santa Anita derby.
Breeders Cup Turf
Year after year this race is dominated by European shippers. This year the local west coast turf contingent is very weak. The leading local horse Spring House does not class up at all. All of the top contenders ship in from Europe.
Archipenko- Ran well in the Arlington Million in defeat. Has the right run style for the ultra firm, ultra tight Santa Anita course. A force if he ships over.
Duke Of Marmalade-This guy has developed into a force for the Ballydoyle Yard. The Duke is undefeated this year. He confirmed his top form at 12 furlongs taking the King George at Ascot by an astounding 9 lengths. He recently added the Group I Juddmonte International to his tally, his fifth Group I score of the year. Needs to hold top form for two more months. The Arc may take the starch out of him. Follow him closely.
Soldier Of Fortune-O'Briens other horse for the turf will be live if he makes it in.
Breeder's Cup Mile
Kip Deville- has been sensational in his two starts and has conformed form at Santa Anita taking the Kilroe mile there in 2007. This Oklahoma bred dominates this usually wide open race.
Whatsthescript- Local horse won the Del Mar mile the other day. Usually needs pace to make his run and there is typically great pace in the Breeder's Cup Mile. Legit contender with a hometown advantage.
Out Of Control- Frankel's Stud TNT import is solid at a mile on the turf. This one will beat Big Brown in the Monmouth Stakes on 13SEP. You heard it here first. He has won in California. p[']
TVG Sprint
Benny The Bull has been phenomenal this year and his retirement leaves a gapping void in the division. This promises to be a wide open race. The other power horse in the division Midnight Lute will stay away from the rubber and jelly cable for synthetic hater Baffert. I would lean towards the local California horses in this race.
In Summation- loves synthetic and may be a price after a few tough defeats. Top pick at a price.
Rebellion- Close second in Pat O'Brien at Del Mar. His deep closing style may work well as the sprint sometimes completely falls apart, especially on synthetic.
Lucky Island- East coast division leader will be the favorite in the Forego on Saturday at Saratoga. Won the Tom Fool over a suspect field. He can rate and is from a top barn. The Pro-Ride surface would be his first race over synthetic.
25 June 2008
Santa Anita To Overhaul Surface
Santa Anita has decided to completely overhaul it's dirt surface over the summer. Pro-Ride has been selected as the vendor to replace the inoperative Cushion Track surface which was faster than a greased slip and slide and collected water more efficiently than a swimming pool. We have no idea what this new surface will be like as it will be the first installation for this vendor in the Untied States in a racetrack enviroment. Pro-Ride had previously tinkered with the failed Cushion Track surface and made that completely inoperative surface, serviceable. With the Breeders Cup just five months away it is scheduled for a track with no surface. The big day of races hinge on a unknown surface and the pressure is on to complete the project on time.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
