Scared Of The Girl

Looks like Asmussen and Jackson are wielding Rachel Alexandra like a poker player wields a pair of aces. He shows his trump hand and everyone folds. It is no surprise that this group of horsemen are not scared to fold a hand with so many games available for three year old colts. The announcement that Rachel is targeting the Haskell has scared off potential pace duelers Papa Clem and Big Drama. This sets the stage for a Rachel showcase where she has everything her own way. Her reputation is beginning to help her as her mere presence is leveling the competition before she even hits the track.

Quality Road Could Be Withdrawn

With the news surfacing that Quality Road has another quarter crack his status for the Derby has to be downgraded to doubtful or maybe questionable. Surely James Jerkens will do the right thing by the horse, if Quality Road is not 100% he should stay in New York and point to a summer campaign. With Quality Road out the pace is going to be even more tepid. This really moves up a few horses who figure to benefit from a moderate pace. Papa Clem stands to benefit along with Regal Ransom and I Want Revenge.

Kentucky Derby Futures Round-Up

With less than four weeks to the Kentucky Derby bettors are solidifying opinions. It is becoming more and more clear that I Want Revenge is going to be the clear favorite as we move closer to the race. As more people watch the Wood and listen to Durkin's hysterics I Want Revenge is going to start to build hype. The current Kentucky Derby betting has I Want Revenge listed at 7-2. With the second choice Quality Road not able to train due to a quarter crack it seems like I Want Revenge has opened up daylight on his competition. Quality Road is questionable just to be in the gate, 5-1 on him to win the 2009 Kentucky Derby is a sucker bet. The co-third choice is the lightly raced Dunkirk at 6-1 who was easily turned back by Quality Road. Dunkirk lacks seasoning and is another who is questionable to be in the gate due to a lack of earnings. With new defections showing up by the day Dunkirk does figure to sneak in the race. The other third choice is Friesen Fire who won the Louisiana Derby by a pole, but that was on slop which typically produces disingenuous win margins. Freisen Fire's seven week gap in races is bewildering to me so 6-1 does not interest me at all. The fifth choice at 7-1 is Pioneer Of The Nile who is a turf horse. Without synthetic surfaces this horses would not even be on this list. 7-1 on the Zayat stable runner is another sucker bet. Out of all the short price type horses I Want Revenge Stands Tall, 7-2 is not a bad proposition and you will surely be looking at a shorter price on derby day.

At the other end of the odds spectrum an intriguing longshot is Papa Clem. This colt was stuck out in Wally Wubber World California where his first four races were on all-weather surfaces. He ran very gamely in California and displayed a run style that may translate better to a dirt surface. Papa Clem took his shot on dirt in the sloppy Louisiana Derby and ran okay first time while on a completely foreign surface. He will run in the Arkansas Derby and I suspect he will give a good account of himself there. If you want to grab some value the current 40-1 on Papa Clem is appetizing. His price may drop dramatically after Saturday if he wins or places like I suspect at Oaklawn.