Not Fit For Marriage

In the post sexual revolution Western world people are just not marriage material anymore. This is not only applicable to the domestic situation paradigm. Even in sports men can not stay committed or married to one thing. To be a fan of horse racing you must be married to it. This fact was illustrated while the commentators discussed the Rachel/Zenyatta match-up on ESPN's "Pardon The Interruption" and "Around The Horn". Rather than discussing the event the reaction was more of a shrug of the shoulders. Tony Realie referred to the one favorable responder on Around The Horn as "the only person to visit an OTB not on the recently deceased list" and stated the only thing that would get him to watch it would be "if Danica Patrick was one of the jockeys". Then Mike Wilbon on PTI, apologizing to his dead father who "loved" horse racing, said "he could care less but would feel guilty as he flipped the channel to find something really interesting.


ESPN Commentator Tony Reali thinks horse racing is for old guys

These opinions are not isolated; these are the ubiquitous opinions of the masses regarding horse racing. As a leisure pastime horse racing requires too much thinking and commands too much engagement for the common man. Horse racing is high maintenance entertainment. The modern man needs something quick, easy and emotionally stimulating. The entertainment of choice should tug on the emotional heartstrings producing feelings of wonder, awe, anxiety and anticipation. While horse racing does cultivate many emotions in people it does so after a long term engagement. Before the deep positive feeling are developed the horse racing fan will likely bear the emotional devastation of losing a large wager or seeing a horse get hurt. Horse racing's long term engagement of reason has little appeal for a population that used to jumping from one short term thrill to another.


The ball sports discussed on TV have broad appeal because they are easy to understand. Due to the constant droning by the TV presenters, everyone can be an expert without feeling thing sting of being wrong or confused. The presenters hold the hands of the fans and make opinions in people where there are is limited brain activity. By providing all the requisite thoughts needed for the viewers the presenters ensure everyone that watches can follow along with ease. In contrast racing's complex PP's can bewilder the masses with a barrage of numbers, obscure figures and industry verbiage. The horse racing game is challenging; even the commentators frequently look foolish as their expert opinion fails to produce most of the time.

The appeal of these games is mostly in manipulating the emotions of the viewers. In contrast racing appeals to reason; reason is a mental facility that many people either do not use or do not realize even exists. With so few people using reason in their daily life racing has a limited market to draw upon. People are not going to say "horse racing? I'm too shallow and flaky to follow that". Instead the horse racing game is dismissed a total bore and a mindless exercise of animals running in an oval. Sadly most do not even realize the challenge and enrichment procured from internalizing and solving the puzzle of "who is going to win this race today?". While horse racing flounders TV-centric games that manipulate emotions like football or MMA fighting bring in the big ratings.

Compared to the long term marriage commitment required to follow horse racing, watching ball sports is like going to a singles bar. You can just jump into a singles bar, have a few drinks, maybe a dance or two and if the night is really good it may end at an hotel room. When these ballgames are over the viewer can cut all ties, just like a guy leaving the hotel. With racing there are long-term commitments; you have the bankroll to propagate, there is the guilt tied in to losing, there are future cards to consider and self control to master. This commitment only appeals to the few. These days manipulating passions is going to trump fostering long term reason time after time. It is clear that the commentators on ESPN clearly prefer the singles bar fun over the long term enrichment of marriage.

Dear Abigail, (The Category Killer Track)

Commenter Abigail made an excellent point in the Rachel Alexandra marketing post regarding how most people show up for triple crown racing for the party and not the horses. This crowd could really care less about the horses. They are there to hang out, get drunk and have a good time. Their good time y does not include watching or betting on horse racing. Any bets made are just ancillary entertainment. These people will not come back until next year when the TV starts talking about the triple crown all over again.


Marketing a special filly mostly falls on deaf ears. Most people are just not sharp enough to appreciate equine excellence or acknowledge it when they see it. These days when it comes to horses people don't know a throat latch from a trifecta box. The thing that people respond to is controversy and large groups of people all doing the same thing. People move in herds like Bison, cherishing the safety of the group. The challenge before racing is to create a real buzz, to create a watering hole to lure the herd. Racing needs to create excitement to drown out the mundane gossip about ballgames and ballplayers on sports AM radio. Racing needs get the masses talking about their single in Saturday's pick 4 instead of who is A-Rod dating now that he is single.

The only marketing that will get the job done is an idea posted by a commenter named "Cholly" in a previous post. The idea was about a "category killer" track that had 100K allowance races, 10% takeout with huge wagering pools and huge fields. Add in a revolutionary tote system based on Betfair that allows players to lay horses and racing could generate the necessary buzz to lure the herd of masses away from the malls and ballpark clip joints. This would be racing at its best and wagering on a grand scale. These would be mutuel pools that dominate the industry, perhaps even putting smaller tracks out of business and concentrating the public's fascination on the mega-meet.


Once the ball starts rolling with the masses their attention tends to accumulate on one subject making that entity a runaway success. Racing is just hanging on with a small but loyal niche audience. There is untapped potential for racing to be a top pleasure activity. When the gambling action filled with intrigue, the racing so interesting, masses of people would gravitate towards it. For this to happen the idea would have to be something completely new and completely out of the box. The marketing idea would have to be fraught with risk, something to surprise people and change the way people think about racing. The "category killer" track looms as something to bring racing back into the mainstream.

Racing Gaining Appeal As Breeding Game Loses Its Allure

Frank from California brings up an excellent point in his comments under the Commish post from earlier this week.

The whole problem revolves around the good horses being retired to soon. In other sports you have the same headliners year after year. Fans can't wait to see the favorite in action,
Racing, it has to re-invent itself every yesr. You remember John Henry, had a big following, was a household name. Why, how long did he race, and win. You seen the following Curlin was attracting -- then gone!
The high powers of racing are to stupid to realize, or, understand what the fan wants. Their only thought is money in their own pocket. There has been blame put in every area but the right one. Synthetic tracks, medications, standardization, they all miss the mark. Actually they have been created to take the focus off the real problem, early retirement. The people at the top are the one's killing racing through their own greed, and stupidity. You start out with a wrong premise -- synthetic tracks, medications, standardization --- you wind up with wrong answers and conclusions.
Frank Lancelotti
California

Frank is unquestionably on the money when he says that fast tracking stakes to the breeding shed have diminished the appeal of horse racing. Smarty Jones was an absolute powerhouse for the game but his time was too short to make a lasting impact. Where some people divert from reality is blaming selfish owners or thinking that some mighty commissioner type could do something about this. A commissioner would be impotent in the realm of dictating horse retirement in an economic climate of a highly lucrative breeding game.

This is not a micro-control issue, it is a macro-economic self interest issue. There is no commissioner or league office that could dictate terms to an owner. What kind of society would allow a commissioner or tyrannical government to force owners to act against their own self interest for the collective good of the game? Hopefully not the United States. While the major ball sport leagues are dealing with a few dozen owners racing is made up of thousands if not tens of thousands of owners. These owners have a right to their self interest and are free to do what is best for their personal self interest. It is a testament to the game that it has survived two decades of owners self interest being in direct opposition to what is in the games collective best interest. Colt after colt retired early, robbing the game of stars and story lines. You may not realize it yet but the era of the breeding tail wagging the racing tail is over.

Now that the economic bubble has burst and the dollar is actively being debased the breeding game has lost much of its economic appeal. Marginal stakes winners that could have had a successful niche at stud will no longer find success. Stud fees are dropping and foal totals are down. A change that would taken a racing commissioner decades to accomplish has now quickly become reality on the winds of changing times. It is time for racing to carpe diem. A strengthened position will yield dividends.


Everyone should be bullish on the racing game as it is now more attractive to keep that top colt racing through the four year old season than in any other time in the last twenty years. Stakes racing on TV is trouncing ball sport playoff games. The market for stud horses is saturated and is in retreat. Racing is one brilliant colt or filly away from capturing the imagination of the masses. If that colt, filly or gelding remains in training for more than one season we could find the game on the S.I. cover frequently and discussed at the water cooler. Ball sports have peaked. There is a growing backlash against high ticket prices. Racing is an attractive economic option is these times. With relatively inexpensive admission cost and potential for gambling fun racing can look forward to growth in the next few years while ball sports and their tired formulas fail. A perfect storm of favorable economic conditions combined with a little bit of luck is all racing needs to cycle back to the mainstream.

Wood Memorial Trip Report

Yet another great day at the Big-A. While others choose to waste hundreds of dollars to go to taxpayer park A & B($1.8 Billion in public debt)the smart discretionary money was at the Big-A. Free to admission, free parking and free to scream your lungs off. The weather was a brisk 55F and the forecast winds gusting to 35 knots out of the southwest were blocked by the massive grandstand. The track was very fair to closers and speed, so perhaps Todd Pletcher must be kicking himself for not entering Dunkirk in the Wood who likely could have given a favorable account of himself on a fair surface.

The crowd was boisterous at the Big-A. There were random chats of Tala-mo throughout the day from the third floor grandstand. One side of the grandstand would randomly and loudly chant "tala!" and the other side would return chant "mo!". This went on for most of the day and foreshadowed the Wood heroics. No PA system required to tell the fans what to do as the life was bubbling out of them, no PA system puppet strings required. For a modest sized crowd it was loud and the stakes winners all received rounds of applause when they returned to be unsaddled. It was sort of like a mini-Belmont Stakes day in an edgy environment.


It was was a very interesting card and the track was fair with speed, stalkers or closers all claiming wins on the day. Almost every year a obscene longshot wins one of the undercard races (2005 Livelyupyourself 48-1, etc etc) and this year that tradition was upheld by All Bets Off at 20-1 in race 2. Race 6 winner Montecore is a horse to watch as he won with complete ease. The winner of the Bay Shore Capt Candyman Can looked tremendous in the paddock and ran to his looks. Giant Moon continued his successful return to the races with improving form third off the layoff. He claimed the Excelsior Handicap while pressing a slow pace, his 13-1 price spiced up the exotic vertical wagers surrounding the Wood Memorial. A game Kodiak Kowboy gallantly ran down Fabulous Strike to annex the Grade I Carter, making it graded stakes wins at all three NYRA tracks and wins in over the last three seasons.


The Wood Memorial was touted as I Want Revenge and Imperial Council versus the rest. Only these two were bet with the rest of the horses cold on the board. After looking closer at the race I picked up a few solid knocks on Imperial Council. A generous poster on paceadvanatge.com pointed out that Imperial Council's action was paddle wheel-like. After watching a few head-on replays of Imperial Council's races I agreed, horses with inefficient action tire going long. Imperial Council was a power toss. When Imperial Council made a complete mess of the paddock I felt confident that he would be off the board and I was able to really get involved in the horizontal wagers. With two power opinions in the Wood, (I Want Revenge was a lock / Imperial Council would be off the board) I was able to obliterate the race vertically and horizontally. (sorry for the redboard) Imperial Council's future is in running at sprint distances. His inefficient action will keep him at distances less than 8 furlongs. As Soon as Shug figures this out the better. For my sake I hope he runs long all year.









Imperial Council's Antics

As anyone can see I Want Revenge was very impressive. He had to overcome breaking five lengths behind the field, running into a trap, running in to a jackpot, he got knocked sideways and had to split horses on two occasions. Even with all these obstacles blocking his access tot he wire he won clear as much the best. I Want Revenge's Wood trip is so eventful that you have to wonder if it took something out of him. My gut says he will be okay. Previous class horses to have nightmares trips like this were Invasor in the 2007 Donn, and Alfeet Alex in the 2005 Derby and Preakness. Both horses came back to win their next starts. Class horses and class people thrive on adversity.









I Want Revenge a picture of composure in the post parade









A poor break for I Want Revenge









Jackpot city for I Want Revenge









I Want Revenge powers through the wall of horses









I Want Revenge clear at the wire









A triumphant return for the most valiant of winners

All pics courtesy of Keith & Tara

Chemical Culture Pervades

Drugs in American racing is not a unique phenomenon. For many generations anything American with legs or roots has been enhanced with a substance or genetically engineered for a specific quality. It is disingenuous for the New York Times to single out racing as a bastion of synthetic advantage. Everything from your corn based breakfast cereal to your dinner steak to your ballgame has been chemically enhanced by one substance or another. The chemical enhancement culture is everywhere and in everything. Racing is just another part of this culture where chemical advantage is annexed.

An outstanding example of a real synthetic coup is corn. Before rich petroleum based fertilizers and genetic engineering corn was a not very tasty, not very nutritious Native American crop. With the powerful assistance of petroleum based fertilizer combined with genetic engineering corn yields have increased from 20 bushels per acre in 1900 to 138 bushels. These impeccable gains in corn yields have led to cows forgoing a grass diet to eat the cheap corn. Instead of having a steer eat his natural diet of grass for 3 years to reach 1000 lbs you can combine corn feed and steroids and have him reach 1200 lbs in 18 months. Nature is not this easy and nature throws up road blocks. When nature objects, science and chemical culture provides the answers. When the cattle get sick from eating an unnatural corn diet the chemical culture prescibes that the cattle ingest a regular regimen of antibiotics. Without these antibiotics your common steer might not live long enough to make to your dinner plate. When the corn diet fattens the steer quickly it is also unnatural and killing the steer slowly. So when you sit down to your next steak dinner remember that you are not eating beef but you are consuming oil, steroids and antibiotics.

The same philosophy that has held sway in the world of agriculture has made its way to American sports as well. There way be a time when all the statistical records of major league ballplayers from the period from 1994-2007 may have an asterisk next to their name. Almost every homerun/pitching record setter has been linked to human growth hormone and anabolic steroids. It is almost like baseball in the 1990's was like corn agriculture in the early part of the 20th century. Numbers that were static for over a generation were exploding and expanding like an Obama deficit. Pumped it up with synthetic substances and the homerun yields exploded exponentially. While this may be unsavory the public largely ignored that drugs were the foundation of the statistical explosion. Huge crowds showed up for the Sammy Sosa-Mark McGuire show in 1998 when both players smashed the home run record with the help of anabolic steroids. This drug enhanced farce was a huge boon for MLB and helped it make a comeback after its disastrous 1994 labor strike. Only with the recent public outcry has baseball corrected it's ways and has begun to sun chemical culture substances.

With racing sort of a being a hybrid of Gambling/Sport/Agriculture it is of little surprise that chemical enhancement American philosophy has made its way to racing. Yes American horses race on Lasix and in some jurisdictions anti-inflammatory medication like bute. It is unfortunate that American racing has polluted the thoroughbred gene pool with these substances. The rest of the world really does have it on the drugs in racing issue. When viewed in the context of America in the late 20th century American racing and drugs is hardly a surprise. It is part of a larger culture that laughs at the laws of nature and blasts natural consequences with synthetic substances. Now that we are squarely in the 21st century many of the consequences for our dependence on drugs and chemical shortcuts have began to emerge. There is a growing market for grassfed beef and notorious steroid ballplayer freaks like Barry Bonds are shunned.
Racing has begun the task of reform and in many ways is ahead of your dinner which is still loaded with steroids, antibiotics and petroleum rich fertilizer. Today is a golden opportunity for racing to get ahead of the curve and dump the chemical dependence addiction in the rear view mirror.