This race is the play of the day. Preachintothedevil finally cuts back to a dirt sprint. His biggest career win was in a dirt sprint. His highest career beyer fig was in a dirt sprint. His dam was the famous Grade I winning dirt sprinter Acey Deucey. So what does Contessa do with this crack sprinter? He runs him in grass routes, dirt routes, poly routes , turf sprints- with the way this guy has been handled I am surprised Contessa-San didn't enter him in a steeplechase. Finally he is entered in the right kind of race and he should give a true account of his skills today.
W #8 Preachintothedevil
ps. This is my first post after an extended hiatus from the game.
Power cap- existential handicapping
Showing posts with label play of the day. Show all posts
Showing posts with label play of the day. Show all posts
22 October 2011
17 October 2010
Sweeping Move~Play Of The Day
Belmont Park Race 9
Looks like a power play on #5 Frances Gardner. Love the maiden breaker and the " sweeping move". This is the type of gambit that wins flat mile turf races at Belmont. I have a hunch that she will love it here and the price should be right. Willing to forgive the stakes try and the clunker on the speed favoring Spa turf. Belmont will be much more friendly to her closing style.
Win #5 Frances Gardner
stats
26 8-2-3
strike rate 31%
cumulative return $83.40
$2 ROI $3.21
average winner $10.43
Win #5 Frances Gardner
stats
26 8-2-3
strike rate 31%
cumulative return $83.40
$2 ROI $3.21
average winner $10.43
02 September 2010
Alpha Mare~Play Of The Day
Saratoga Race 6
Muhaawara is going to dominate here on the front end. She will assume the role of alpha mare and cruise to a win while loose on the lead. She is a true lone speed on the inner turf.
Win #7
stats
25 8-2-3
strike rate 32%
cumulative return $83.40
$2 ROI $3.34
average winner $10.43
Muhaawara is going to dominate here on the front end. She will assume the role of alpha mare and cruise to a win while loose on the lead. She is a true lone speed on the inner turf.
Win #7
stats
25 8-2-3
strike rate 32%
cumulative return $83.40
$2 ROI $3.34
average winner $10.43
25 August 2010
Stormy Again~Play Of The Day
Saratoga Race 8
Going to back my favorite colt Stormy's Majesty in the Albany Stakes today. It looks like he only has to beat Ibboyee which is well within his skill set. Should be a great race.
Win #2 Stormy's Majesty
stats
24 7-2-3
strike rate 29%
cumulative return $77.90
$2 ROI $3.25
average winner $11.13
Going to back my favorite colt Stormy's Majesty in the Albany Stakes today. It looks like he only has to beat Ibboyee which is well within his skill set. Should be a great race.
Win #2 Stormy's Majesty
stats
24 7-2-3
strike rate 29%
cumulative return $77.90
$2 ROI $3.25
average winner $11.13
20 August 2010
Wolly Wolly ~Play Of The Day
Saratoga Race 8
It has been slow around here. Frankly I have not made a watched a card/made a bet from the Spa since July but that will will change today. Wolly Bear ships down from Canada to face NY bred females. She is a speed type alpha-mare and it looks like she will go unchallenged today on the front end. I really love that she has won at distances from 6.5 to 9 furlongs and the two bullet works look great. She could face some pressure from Jessica but that one is distance limited. Look at the 1 mile work as they attempt to stretch Jessica out beyond her ability. I think Jessica will be conserved and the Bear will be loose on the front end. Wolly Bear is a prime play at 8-1 morning line.
W#3 Wolly Bear
stats
23 7-2-3
strike rate 30%
cumulative return $77.90
$2 ROI $3.39
average winner $11.13
It has been slow around here. Frankly I have not made a watched a card/made a bet from the Spa since July but that will will change today. Wolly Bear ships down from Canada to face NY bred females. She is a speed type alpha-mare and it looks like she will go unchallenged today on the front end. I really love that she has won at distances from 6.5 to 9 furlongs and the two bullet works look great. She could face some pressure from Jessica but that one is distance limited. Look at the 1 mile work as they attempt to stretch Jessica out beyond her ability. I think Jessica will be conserved and the Bear will be loose on the front end. Wolly Bear is a prime play at 8-1 morning line.
W#3 Wolly Bear
stats
23 7-2-3
strike rate 30%
cumulative return $77.90
$2 ROI $3.39
average winner $11.13
31 July 2010
Class Test~Play Of The Day
Saratoga Race 10 Jim Dandy Stakes
The skies the limit for #3 Stormy's Majesty. Undefeated but he faces a huge class test today. This colt appears to be stakes quality. He has a fluid motion, size, gameness and speed. If I am right there could be a huge reward with his 15-1 ML.
Win#3 Stormy's Majesty
stats
22 7-2-3
strike rate 32%
cumulative return $77.90
$2 ROI $3.54
average winner $11.13
The skies the limit for #3 Stormy's Majesty. Undefeated but he faces a huge class test today. This colt appears to be stakes quality. He has a fluid motion, size, gameness and speed. If I am right there could be a huge reward with his 15-1 ML.
Win#3 Stormy's Majesty
stats
22 7-2-3
strike rate 32%
cumulative return $77.90
$2 ROI $3.54
average winner $11.13
15 July 2010
Richie Rules(I Hope)~Play Of The Day
Belmont Race 4
Looks like Richie Rules can ship in to Belmont and slip out with some big purse money. This horse has been racing at higher class meets like Gulfstream and Monmouth and now shows up at the backwater Belmont meet. The even money favorite here has one win and five places and is vulnarable yet again. Richie Rules can take this field wire to wire for the old master DiMauro. The 12-1 morning line is appealing.
Stats
21 6-2-3
strike rate 29%
cumulative return $73.60
$2 ROI $3.50
average winner $12.27
Looks like Richie Rules can ship in to Belmont and slip out with some big purse money. This horse has been racing at higher class meets like Gulfstream and Monmouth and now shows up at the backwater Belmont meet. The even money favorite here has one win and five places and is vulnarable yet again. Richie Rules can take this field wire to wire for the old master DiMauro. The 12-1 morning line is appealing.
Stats
21 6-2-3
strike rate 29%
cumulative return $73.60
$2 ROI $3.50
average winner $12.27
05 July 2010
Custom Class~Play Of The Day
Belmont Park Race 5
Looks like the racing secretary amended the condition of Belmont's race five just so #7 Ricoriatoa could compete. This is usually a 50K starter allowance, a race that Ricoriatoa would not be eligible for. Today the condition has been revised to 60K starter just so Ricoriatoa could join the field. This gives Ricoriatoa a huge class edge. The juicy part is that Ricoriatoa is a lone speed type on a parched turf course that has been favoring speed. He figures to be loose on the lead with little to no pressure. With these dual edges Ricoriatoa (4-1) is a power play type horse.
Win #7 Ricoriatoa
Stats
20 6-2-23
strike rate 30%
cumulative return $73.60
$2 ROI $3.68
average winner $12.27
Looks like the racing secretary amended the condition of Belmont's race five just so #7 Ricoriatoa could compete. This is usually a 50K starter allowance, a race that Ricoriatoa would not be eligible for. Today the condition has been revised to 60K starter just so Ricoriatoa could join the field. This gives Ricoriatoa a huge class edge. The juicy part is that Ricoriatoa is a lone speed type on a parched turf course that has been favoring speed. He figures to be loose on the lead with little to no pressure. With these dual edges Ricoriatoa (4-1) is a power play type horse.
Win #7 Ricoriatoa
Stats
20 6-2-23
strike rate 30%
cumulative return $73.60
$2 ROI $3.68
average winner $12.27
03 July 2010
Mr. Vegas~Play Of The Day
Belmont Park Race 8
Mr. Vegas has distinct edges in today's eighth race at Belmont. He has some speed to stalk on the hard baked inner turf and emerges out of two tough races that have darkened his form. There are other speeds but Mr. Vegas is not a need the lead type. Today he faces a much easier field-no NY bred monsters like Mor Chances or Strait Story- and should be a square price. In addition he has the beat open N1X credential that no other horse in the field has. 10-1 would be a dream price if the morning line is to be believed.
Win #4 Mr. Vegas
Stats
19 6-2-23
strike rate 32%
cumulative return $73.60
$2 ROI $3.87
average winner $12.27
Mr. Vegas has distinct edges in today's eighth race at Belmont. He has some speed to stalk on the hard baked inner turf and emerges out of two tough races that have darkened his form. There are other speeds but Mr. Vegas is not a need the lead type. Today he faces a much easier field-no NY bred monsters like Mor Chances or Strait Story- and should be a square price. In addition he has the beat open N1X credential that no other horse in the field has. 10-1 would be a dream price if the morning line is to be believed.
Win #4 Mr. Vegas
Stats
19 6-2-23
strike rate 32%
cumulative return $73.60
$2 ROI $3.87
average winner $12.27
01 July 2010
Ice Cold ~Play Of The Day
Belmont Race 2
Natural Ice, dry Ice or Bud Ice? No this one goes to Tim Ice and My Valentina. As a welcoming present to top dog Domingo they put him up on a winner first time riding for the barn. Barn already had a 2YO FTS win named Commonwealth Rush and it looks like this one worked out with that one. My Valentina is the pick here.
Win #8 My Valentina
Stats
18 6-2-2
strike rate 33%
cumulative return $73.60
$2 ROI $4.09
average winner $12.27
Bonus Play: Maybe an Ice Cold Race 1 daily double 6/8. Also a few bucks on the 7/8 DD.
Natural Ice, dry Ice or Bud Ice? No this one goes to Tim Ice and My Valentina. As a welcoming present to top dog Domingo they put him up on a winner first time riding for the barn. Barn already had a 2YO FTS win named Commonwealth Rush and it looks like this one worked out with that one. My Valentina is the pick here.
Win #8 My Valentina
Stats
18 6-2-2
strike rate 33%
cumulative return $73.60
$2 ROI $4.09
average winner $12.27
Bonus Play: Maybe an Ice Cold Race 1 daily double 6/8. Also a few bucks on the 7/8 DD.
27 June 2010
Like Mother Like Daughter~Play Of The Day
Belmont Park Race 9
Looks like Senada is ready for a breakout race today at Belmont Park. It took a graded placed filly to beat her last race; there are no such fillies entered today. The three year old daughter of Owsley should be ready for this race. Senada's mother loved Owsley loved Belmont Park, loved the inner turf and loved 10 furlongs. In fact Owsley won the 2002 New York handicap over the inner turf at this distance. Today is Senada's turn to follow in her dams hoofprints. Who is better training a young horse to negotiate ten furlongs than Barclay Tagg? He has given this $800K purchase plenty of time, has schooled her through 5 works and should have her ready to win. It looks like Senada is going to stalk the pace patsy Gold d' Oro. When Senada takes over at the top of the lane the gaggle of closers entered will run out of gas in the lane over this 10 furlong trip. With horses in the race from the well bet Mott, Clemente and Chad Brown barns we should get a square price on Senada today.
Race 9 Win #8 Senada
17 6-2-1
strike rate 35%
cumulative return $73.60
$2 ROI $4.33
average winner $12.27
Looks like Senada is ready for a breakout race today at Belmont Park. It took a graded placed filly to beat her last race; there are no such fillies entered today. The three year old daughter of Owsley should be ready for this race. Senada's mother loved Owsley loved Belmont Park, loved the inner turf and loved 10 furlongs. In fact Owsley won the 2002 New York handicap over the inner turf at this distance. Today is Senada's turn to follow in her dams hoofprints. Who is better training a young horse to negotiate ten furlongs than Barclay Tagg? He has given this $800K purchase plenty of time, has schooled her through 5 works and should have her ready to win. It looks like Senada is going to stalk the pace patsy Gold d' Oro. When Senada takes over at the top of the lane the gaggle of closers entered will run out of gas in the lane over this 10 furlong trip. With horses in the race from the well bet Mott, Clemente and Chad Brown barns we should get a square price on Senada today.
Race 9 Win #8 Senada
17 6-2-1
strike rate 35%
cumulative return $73.60
$2 ROI $4.33
average winner $12.27
17 June 2010
Make It A Double~ Play Of The Day
Belmont Park Race 7
Yesterday we had dos plays today we are playing Dos Hombres. In a field full of question marks Dos Hombres offers value. I love how this guy was able to close from off the pace in the inner turf last year. He should love the widener turf and we should get an honest pace set up.
W # 7 Dos Hombres
16 5-2-1
strike rate 31%
cumulative return $66.60
$2 ROI $4.16
average winner $13.32
Yesterday we had dos plays today we are playing Dos Hombres. In a field full of question marks Dos Hombres offers value. I love how this guy was able to close from off the pace in the inner turf last year. He should love the widener turf and we should get an honest pace set up.
W # 7 Dos Hombres
16 5-2-1
strike rate 31%
cumulative return $66.60
$2 ROI $4.16
average winner $13.32
16 June 2010
Magic Showers~Play Of The Day
Belmont Park Race 8
Today we will offer a second play of the day.
Today we will offer a second play of the day.
Magic Lion looks like the magic pick here off the claim. Should dominate the pace and draw off for fun. The track will be packed down in anticipation of showers. You can anticipate showers of cash when Magic Lion wins and you have him for monster bucks. This colt should be fresh fit and ready to roar. My key horse to cash the grand slam and other wagers.
Win #3 Magic Lion
stats
14 4-2-1
strike rate 29%
cumulative return $62.80
$2 ROI $4.49
average winner $15.70
Win #3 Magic Lion
stats
14 4-2-1
strike rate 29%
cumulative return $62.80
$2 ROI $4.49
average winner $15.70
Milking The Inner~Play Of The Day
Belmont Park Race 6
PJ Campo has been kind enough to card a plethora of turf races and this has been financially beneficial for the power cap. Today we see that the forth choice on the morning line(5-1)in race 6 -lone speed Muhtasib- is the most likely winner of this 10 furlong maiden race. This guy should be loose on the lead and poised to take this field wire to wire. Looks like a win bet and a will key him in the trifecta in first and second slot. This is a turf only play.
Win #6 Muthasib
stats
14 4-2-1
strike rate 29%
cumulative return $62.80
$2 ROI $4.49
average winner $15.70
PJ Campo has been kind enough to card a plethora of turf races and this has been financially beneficial for the power cap. Today we see that the forth choice on the morning line(5-1)in race 6 -lone speed Muhtasib- is the most likely winner of this 10 furlong maiden race. This guy should be loose on the lead and poised to take this field wire to wire. Looks like a win bet and a will key him in the trifecta in first and second slot. This is a turf only play.
Win #6 Muthasib
stats
14 4-2-1
strike rate 29%
cumulative return $62.80
$2 ROI $4.49
average winner $15.70
12 June 2010
Saturday Musings At Elmont Embellished With A Play Of The Day
Race 4 O. Phipps Handicap GI- Unrivaled belle is indeed without a rival in this race. She should win for fun at 3-5. Funny Moon and Life At Ten are pretenders. Unrivaled Took down the mighty Rachel last out and has been working bullets for the on-fire Mott barn. Would not bet against this favorite as she states her case for 2nd best filly or mare in the country.
Race 8- Major Class relief here for Raffie's Rose who finally escapes the brilliant Franny Freud. This filly has some talent and at 12-1 will offer mondo value. The right key horse in a monster betting race. Pretty Cozy returns from her flop as the play of the day. I liked her on the inner turf as lone speed going 1 16th much more than 7 furlongs on the widener. I think that she will flop today at a short price. Will also cover 3,7,9,10 in this race in pick 4s.
Race 10- Pardon the pun but Financially Secure looks like a safe bet today. The right key horse in the late pick 3/pick 4. Might even be a good bail out horse as the New York degenerates eschew a good thing like Financially Secure for hopeless longshots in their desperate attempt to get even after a day of losing. Favorites are usually a rather generous price in the Belmont finale. Financially Secure will be my key horse and play of the day.
Belmont Race 10
Win #12 Financially Secure
stats
14 4-2-1
strike rate 29%
cumulative return $62.80
$2 ROI $4.49
average winner $15.70
Race 8- Major Class relief here for Raffie's Rose who finally escapes the brilliant Franny Freud. This filly has some talent and at 12-1 will offer mondo value. The right key horse in a monster betting race. Pretty Cozy returns from her flop as the play of the day. I liked her on the inner turf as lone speed going 1 16th much more than 7 furlongs on the widener. I think that she will flop today at a short price. Will also cover 3,7,9,10 in this race in pick 4s.
Race 10- Pardon the pun but Financially Secure looks like a safe bet today. The right key horse in the late pick 3/pick 4. Might even be a good bail out horse as the New York degenerates eschew a good thing like Financially Secure for hopeless longshots in their desperate attempt to get even after a day of losing. Favorites are usually a rather generous price in the Belmont finale. Financially Secure will be my key horse and play of the day.
Belmont Race 10
Win #12 Financially Secure
stats
14 4-2-1
strike rate 29%
cumulative return $62.80
$2 ROI $4.49
average winner $15.70
11 June 2010
Honorable Late Pick 3~Play Of The Day
Belmont Park Race 9
Looks like lone speed on #1 Honorable Truth. This mare should have things all her own way on the front end. The amazing Rudy Rodriguez should have her ready to take this field wire to wire. My play here is to single her at the end of a pick 3 that will go 5,8,9 / ALL/ 1 and a little pick 3 punch play of ALL / 3,6 / 1. If Honorable Truth scratches and her entrymate runs we will consider this no play. For statistical purposes this will count as a win bet on Honorable Truth.
Race 7- Looks like the three ML choices are all speed horses. Hoping one of three price horses pick up the pieces to start the pick 3 right.
Race 8 - Looks like a fairly wide open event but I favor Granted Tiger on the cutback and the European raider Yorksters Girl.
Race 9 Win #1 Honorable Truth
stats
13 3-2-1
strike rate 23%
cumulative return $58.80
$2 ROI $4.960
average winner $19.60
Looks like lone speed on #1 Honorable Truth. This mare should have things all her own way on the front end. The amazing Rudy Rodriguez should have her ready to take this field wire to wire. My play here is to single her at the end of a pick 3 that will go 5,8,9 / ALL/ 1 and a little pick 3 punch play of ALL / 3,6 / 1. If Honorable Truth scratches and her entrymate runs we will consider this no play. For statistical purposes this will count as a win bet on Honorable Truth.
Race 7- Looks like the three ML choices are all speed horses. Hoping one of three price horses pick up the pieces to start the pick 3 right.
Race 8 - Looks like a fairly wide open event but I favor Granted Tiger on the cutback and the European raider Yorksters Girl.
Race 9 Win #1 Honorable Truth
stats
13 3-2-1
strike rate 23%
cumulative return $58.80
$2 ROI $4.960
average winner $19.60
05 June 2010
Belmont Stakes~Play Of The Day
Belmont Park Race 11
Interactif is sitting on a break out race. This guy has run well at a host of tracks from distances from 5 furlongs to a mile 1 1/8th. Dirt, turf and all-weather this guy has seen every surface. The only track he didn't run at was Keeneland but I can give him a pass for that; that is a quirky surface. I think he stalks the pace, takes over and keeps going. He tries hard every time, I think he passes the test of a champion tomorrow.
While Ice Box does seems to be a likely candidate to hit the board, I think his lack of lead changing catches up to him and he falls short of the win.
Win #12 Interactif
stats
12 3-2-1
strike rate 25%
cumulative return $58.80
$2 ROI $4.90
average winner $19.60
Interactif is sitting on a break out race. This guy has run well at a host of tracks from distances from 5 furlongs to a mile 1 1/8th. Dirt, turf and all-weather this guy has seen every surface. The only track he didn't run at was Keeneland but I can give him a pass for that; that is a quirky surface. I think he stalks the pace, takes over and keeps going. He tries hard every time, I think he passes the test of a champion tomorrow.
While Ice Box does seems to be a likely candidate to hit the board, I think his lack of lead changing catches up to him and he falls short of the win.
Win #12 Interactif
stats
12 3-2-1
strike rate 25%
cumulative return $58.80
$2 ROI $4.90
average winner $19.60
04 June 2010
Stormy~Play Of The Day
Belmont Park Race 8
Stormy's Majesty was very impressive last year for New York stalwart Galluscio. This horse has stakes written all over him. He was game and he looks like the kind of horse who can dominate NY breds. Galluscio has him working sharply and he looks ready to roll today.
Win #4 Stormy's Majesty
stats
11 2-2-1
strike rate 18%
cumulative return $51.6
$2 ROI $4.69
average winner $25.8
Stormy's Majesty was very impressive last year for New York stalwart Galluscio. This horse has stakes written all over him. He was game and he looks like the kind of horse who can dominate NY breds. Galluscio has him working sharply and he looks ready to roll today.
Win #4 Stormy's Majesty
stats
11 2-2-1
strike rate 18%
cumulative return $51.6
$2 ROI $4.69
average winner $25.8
01 June 2010
Cowboys Part Due~Play Of The Day
For Wednesday 02June10
Belmont Park Race 8
The last race for Pocket Cowboys was a smasher. The reason we are keying him again -I hope it is not love- was the way he finished the last race. He kicked away to a big win; this wasn't a gut it out-close finish. Pocket Cowboys is a big horse that has proven that he loves this track/distance. Many of these horses will not get this ten furlong distance; Pocket Cowboys certainly can. While this is a step up in class with increased pace pressure the generous price is well worth the risk (15-1 ML).
W #11 Pocket Cowboys
stats
10 2-1-1
strike rate 20%
cumulative return $51.6
$2 ROI $5.16
average winner $25.8
Belmont Park Race 8
The last race for Pocket Cowboys was a smasher. The reason we are keying him again -I hope it is not love- was the way he finished the last race. He kicked away to a big win; this wasn't a gut it out-close finish. Pocket Cowboys is a big horse that has proven that he loves this track/distance. Many of these horses will not get this ten furlong distance; Pocket Cowboys certainly can. While this is a step up in class with increased pace pressure the generous price is well worth the risk (15-1 ML).
W #11 Pocket Cowboys
stats
10 2-1-1
strike rate 20%
cumulative return $51.6
$2 ROI $5.16
average winner $25.8
30 May 2010
Bernie Madoff~Play Of The Day
Monmouth Park Race 8
When Bernie Madoff was exposed as a criminal few people understood that many people know that he was running a scam and actively participated anyway. Hopefully we profit from this scam. We are looking for "Madoff like" returns on #10 Ponzi Scheme in Monmouth race 8. Ponzi Scheme slips in for the 3 year old condition while most others race for the non winners of two lifetime condition. Ponzi Scheme has already won 3 times. He drops in class from stakes company and cuts back in distance. At the end of the day we could be the one that made off with the money.
Win #19 Ponzi Scheme (12-1 M/L)
stats
9 2-1-1
strike rate 22%
cumulative return $51.6
$2 ROI $5.73
average winner $25.8
When Bernie Madoff was exposed as a criminal few people understood that many people know that he was running a scam and actively participated anyway. Hopefully we profit from this scam. We are looking for "Madoff like" returns on #10 Ponzi Scheme in Monmouth race 8. Ponzi Scheme slips in for the 3 year old condition while most others race for the non winners of two lifetime condition. Ponzi Scheme has already won 3 times. He drops in class from stakes company and cuts back in distance. At the end of the day we could be the one that made off with the money.
Win #19 Ponzi Scheme (12-1 M/L)
stats
9 2-1-1
strike rate 22%
cumulative return $51.6
$2 ROI $5.73
average winner $25.8
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