Admittedly this site does not cover a lot of the news or horses that run on the opposite coast. It must be the three-hour time difference, general malaise towards the product offered at the three principal tracks, the two synthetic surfaces that are in place, the high takeout rates, or some combination of the four. Whatever the case may be, they do produce some decent runners for the big day much like the other major circuits do. A scouting report on the some of the big players coming to Louisville is in order.
Game On Dude
He is listed at 15/1 in the recent Breeders’ Cup write up for the Daily Racing Form. Seems a bit high even for a rough sketch on the contenders they list. Awesome Gem is the longest shot listed immediately after the Dude at 20/1. This one has been the hard trying type all year long and seems to favor dirt surfaces with two major wins over the Santa Anita surface. His early speed always puts him in contention and he could hang around for the finish if unattended and treated as cheap speed.
The Factor
It’s been an up and down year for this highly touted Baffert runner, after winning two straight grade two races he was defeated in the Arkansas Derby and laid up until the Pat O’Brien stakes where he defeated Smiling Tiger with weight concessions. The Ancient Title was a flat effort where he finished off the board causing high rolling show bettors to look for tall buildings and bridges. He is a Jekyll and Hyde horse if there ever was one, which one will show up on the first Saturday of November is anyone’s guess. Buyers beware.
Dubawi Heights
If Stacelita is at the top of the older filly grass ranks for the U.S. then this one is not far behind. They were one-two in their only meeting on a neutral site at Arlington Park and those two went on to win their next starts in easy fashion. The 11 furlongs of the distaff turf race will be a question mark for this one though as it will be her first trip going three turns and an eighth of a mile longer than she has ever gone in her career. Her rival Stacelita has already done the trip against colts in the United Nations back in July with a respectable third to show for it.
Power cap- existential handicapping
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1 comment:
Your article certainly gets the wheels turning.
The presence of Game on Dude certainly makes the pace of the Classic honest and could fell the talented but ill-prepared-for-10 furlongs Uncle Mo.
Dude has shown his mettle in a dogfight, but he's never fought a dog as classy as 'Mo on the front end.
The Classic sets up for a closer...maybe Havre de Grace or Flat Out falls into the ideal trip?
The Factor isn't the kind that can be rated, but that's what Garcia tried to do in the Ancient Title. He'll roll early in the Sprint, but so will his stable mate Euroears...I'm not sure either will survive the battle. Amazombie, a horse proven able to close into a very hot pace, is the true value from California.
Dubawi Heights is the real deal, all class. As you noted, she franked the form of Stacelita and the Beverly D. That said, I think her stretch kick is dulled the farther she runs which will have me looking elsewhere for the win in the Filly & Mare turf.
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