Spring Has Arrived In New York

Spring in finally here, this seasonal transition is not determined by a vernal equinox or a climate change but by the move from the Aqueduct Inner Track to the Aqueduct Main Track. While most urban dwellers are completely removed from the seasonal transitions of life the racing fan is in intimate contact with the rhythm of the earth. The racing schedule provides all the hints and cues we need to let us know what time of year it is. If a Grizzly bear could follow horse racing, they would know to terminate their yearly hibernation with the move to the Main Track. Prompted by the move to the main track, racing fans all over New York have began their spring cleaning this week and are planting their tomatoes and peppers.

The move to the Aqueduct main track signals the return of the return of the top class horses from their winter quarters down south. Legendary trainers like Allen Jerkens and Bill Mott will soon be found entering their stock in New York races. The first turf race of the year in New York is scheduled for Saturday. We can look forward to four graded stakes races on the Saturday Aqueduct card. The highlight is the Wood Memorial Stakes which sets the stage for the Kentucky Derby and the rest of the triple crown classics. As New York racing fans we are finishing the last of our winter rations and we can now start feeding on the explosions of budding life brought by the warm spring sun.

Big Brown Delivers A Big Statement -Tomcito Says Hola

On paper the Florida Derby looked like the most exciting prep yet for the Kentucky Derby. We had the Big Brown express delivery service, the Peruvian Conquistador, the Majestic Aristocrat and a supporting cast of useful colts. The race lived up to the billing. Big Brown delivered an express package arriving to the wire quickly and unscathed. Brown lived up to the hype that Dutrow and Desormeaux had been spreading all week making those two look like horseracing profits.

If Big Brown and his quarter cracks can make it to the first Saturday in May he will surely be the favorite and a formidable force on the front end. The challenge for Dutrow to keep this Big Brown blaster on edge for five long weeks. So much so soon for this Big Brown but he surely has more of that brilliant form available for delivery. There will be many people counting on him to deliver on derby day after this command performance.

The win capped off a memorable day for Dutrow, perhaps a day like that has only been trumped by Mandella's 2003 Breeders Cup quad win day. Dutrow started off the day annexing the Godolphin Mile with Diamond Stripes, moved on to Benny The Bull's Golden Shaheen, and placed himself front and center by introducing the world to the Kentucky Derby favorite. He even won the night cap at Gulfstream after the Florida Derby. Have to give him credit for one of the great days ever in racing. Dutrow like Big Brown is a polarizing figure and everyone has an strong opinion about the man one way or the other.

Tomcito made his much anticipated American debut and ran a promising race. After being outrun early he persevered for third. It was the kind of race that a horse can move forward from, and it was a positive first time experience. The connections must be pleased and hopeful for future success. If there is some massive pace melt down in the derby or Belmont Tomcito is the kind of runner that is poised to pick up the pieces. He could make an impact if the chips fall his way. He is the kind of horse with a long form cycle, he should improve and run many honest races.

The Florida derby completely changed the Derby picture. All of the internet, media and newspaper Derby lists will have to be amended to make way for Big Brown up top. Big Brown's race was like the delivery of a birthday cake with an surprise exotic dancer bursting out when you least expected it. It was thrilling, exciting and something that got the heart racing. Tomcito's race was like a new Latino neighbor coming by to drop off their flan recipe. Tomcito's race was good, you enjoyed meeting the new neighbor but the exotic dancer and the cake completely rocked your world and made the flan seem quite ordinary in every way. Keep in mind that in the future the flan recipe could prove much more useful than the exotic dancer in the cake.

Dubai World Cup Winner Curlin to the Turf?

Tremendous performance by Curlin in the Dubai World Cup manhandling his opponents with ease. He won with absolute authority, so dominate that John Murtagh said. "The winner is a monster." After wins in the Breeders Cup Classic and now Dubai World Cup Curlin has very little to prove on the dirt. The trainer and owner seem to be the sporting kind of connections that the game dearly needs. Racing fans should be pleased that the connections are harvesting the rewards of keeping Curlin in training. This sets a positive precedent for other connections to race their top class American horses past the sophomore season. Many horses have pulled off the Breeders Cup/Dubai World Cup double. Why not do something exciting that will distinguish Curlin as one of the greatest Thoroughbred racehorses ever? Now that Curlin has absolutely proven his dominance in the worlds two biggest dirt races why not try the turf?



A turf campaign would be an exciting close to Curlin's career and a conquest that would endear him to a worldwide audience. Possible targets could be the Arlington Million, then a ship to France for a prep and then the Arc De Triomphe. Here is the best part for team Curlin there is no pressure if they try the grass. When Curlin runs in the Arlington Million, he has a built in excuse as a dirt horse so there is little pressure to perform well. However if Curlin dominates on the turf like I suspect he will , his reputation raises exponentially without any risk. This horse is so good and so classy that he is like racing legends such as Dr. Fager, Round Table, John Henry and Secretariat, these are horses that could transfer dominant dirt form into world class turf form. Running the table on this schedule would lock the Dubai World Cup winner as one of the greatest of all time. Why has no American horse taken on the challenge of the Arc? Curlin is the first American horse that is up to the challenge in some time. Jess Jackson is proud to be a fourteenth generation American, and as a wine making mogul how satisfying would it be for him to bring home Europe's greatest race? Alexander the Great did not become Alexander the Great by sacking the Sardis over and over. Alexander expanded his territory and took on new challenges. Curlin has the potential to be Curlin the great if the connections have the courage to take on new challenges.

Weekend Derby Prep Action 29MAR

The Florida Derby is the most serious derby prep so far along the trail. $1 million purse is also the largest and certainly the most interesting prep in what has been a uneventful derby trail. The Favorite is Big Brown who is a polarizing animal. People are wither swooning over him or labeling him as a cheap plug that has beaten nobody of consequence. A horse that has so much sway over the thoughts and actions of people must have substance, I think that he runs huge here, especially since he needs the graded earnings for connections that would love nothing more than to go to Louisville on the First Saturday in May.

The other interesting horse is Tomcito whose exploits have been extensively chronicled on websites like this one and others. For a horse that has earned $54K he has received more than his fair share of hype. After reviewing his fast works I think this cat in bag is going to fire out of the bag quickly and show more speed than expected. I have a growing suspicion that the connections will want him close to the pace to get him used to the faster pace of American racing. Close to the pace will be his undoing, this is a one run closer. He makes his big late run next out but I think the connections want the Florida Derby to be a positive introduction to American racing for Tomcito more than a inauspicious introduction.

Fierce Wind on the rail has won at the distance and track and has four really nice works since the Sam Davis. He has the speed to track the pace and the class to win it. He has a legit claim as a win contender.

Then we have Hey Byrn who has been beating up on allowance foes, over the track and distance he faces a huge class test today could be a poor mans fierce wind as he has a similar running style.

Majestic Warrior despite the stellar pedigree has the shown hints that he might be a closing sprinter, but do you really want to write off this grade I winner so fast? A case could be made here for a massive form reversal. I will let him prove it.

I like that the two top contenders in the race have the far outside post and the far inside post. My friends at the Flushing OTB would say that this race has balanced Feng Shui. With that in mind I wager that both power horses hit the frame. I will play both Fierce Wind and Big Brown.

exacta box 1/12

trifecta 1,12 / ALL / 1,12

Horseplayers Are Omnivores

Like Macciavelli said a prince must sometimes imitate the fox and also the lion. A handicapper must be able to make the right play at the right time. Sometimes he should be a fox and find a race where the chalk is vulnerable and the value is in a spread vertical exotic. Other times the capper should be a lion and just devour a horse that he loves in the win pool. You can not get locked into one bet or a one dimensional line of thinking if you want to survive in this jungle. The handicapper profits from being a multi dimensional, nimble wagering, parimutuel predator.

TVG To Offer Free Past Performances to Account Holders

TVG announced today that it will offer free past performances to their account holders. The first ADW provider to match the free PP's that Twinspires have offered for years. Perhaps somebody at TVG realized what horsesplayers like and they shrewdly arranged some free stuff for horseplayers that clamor for this sort of thing. This is an improvement for a ADW provider who is a notorious nickel and dime operation that charges a $.25 surcharge for every bet placed. If you look at the ADW poll TVG lags far behind Twinspires.

TVG has contributed their fair share to the industry. Perhaps someone like I would not have become an obsessed racing fan if TVG did not exist. While I watched racing since the mid-1980's, the bug did not really hit me until the early 200's when TVG was the first to beam the into the TV 18 hours a day. Before TVG racing was on TV for 12 hours a year, now it is on 18 hours a day everyday of the year. We can not underestimate the positive influence TVG has had in modernizing the racing industry and coaxing non-dinosaur fans into the racing circle. It would be a shame if a network like TVG fails. HRTV does not reach as many people. It would be a greater shame if it failed because it was outgamed by Twinspires and their free BRISNET PDF PP's. It is a huge positive that TVG has entered the free stuff business. Even 58 Flat Matt hit the late pick 4 at Aqueduct today for $670 bucks. Things are looking up at TVG.

Dubai World Cup Card

The Dubai racing club assembled a real humdinger for the Saturday evening Dubai World Cup card. Rarely will a card have over 10 Group/Grade winners and this card has 59 grade/group stakes winners. The class is being dealt out often and in spades.

The late pick 3 has a cumultive purse of $16 million dollars. Going to try to nail this pick 3.

Race 5 Dubai Duty Free- This is where I am going to single. #10 Literato is an absolute machine and has won 9 of 11 mostly in group competition. The win in the Group I Champion stakes confirms his class and the cutback to 9 furlongs should have him running powerfully in the lane. Class turf runners that win race after race are the most reliable horses to wager on and this is where I will hang my hat. The Godolphin home teams claims the the Duty Free for themselves. If Literato scores the game will get very interesting for my interests.


Race 6 Dubai Sheema Classic- This 12 furlong turf classic features a field with 9 Group or Grade 1 placed horses, one of the best races held anywhere in the world in 2008. This is the race where I feel value may be found. Going to spread out in this leg of the sequence, including as many as possible. Latency, Quijano, Sun Classique, Youmzain, Better Talk Now, Oracle West, Viva Pataca, Mourilyan, Doctor Dino and Gower Song have all proven that they belong and a deep spread might find a big price and the keys to a score. The vital form factors in a race like this are class and distance ability.

Race 7 Dubai World Cup- This looks like a possible walkover for Curlin and I agree that he is a formidable favorite in a race that has been dominated by American shippers at a short price. In this sequence the vast majority of pick 3 players will have Curlin singled. I too will be one that singles Curlin on my main ticket but the unexpected happens in horse races, so I will try to make the unexpected my friend. With the unexpected in mind, I will play an alternate contingency ticket that uses Premium Tap, Jalil and Vermilion just in case racing luck shines a bad light on Curlin.

Dubai Pick 3 Ticket A 10 / 1,2,3,5,6,10,12,13,15,16 / 12

Dubai Pick 3 Ticket B 10 / 2,3,5,12,15 / 6,7,8,12

Tomcito Watch Part IV

Tomcito is entered in the Grade I Florida Derby at Gulf Stream on Saturday 29MAR. The workout tab looks consistent and he was asked for speed in a big 5 furlong blowout 17MAR. The favorite will be #12 Big Brown who is looking to be the first horse to ever win a 9 furlong race at Gulfstream since they reconfigured the track to 9 furlongs a few years ago. Lots of hype with Big Brown and there are more than a few esteemed handicappers who swoon over Big Brown's two blowout wins. I am looking for an improved effort from the regally bred Majestic Warrior who should be a big price.

Tomcito drew well in post four and we should get a clear view on exactly who Tomcito is. I hope he runs well and adds some much needed intrigue to the triple crown trail. Peruvian Jorge Chavez takes the mount and I hope all of Peru tunes in to see their connections do well.