Power cap- existential handicapping
05 August 2008
Saratoga-Too Much Of A Good Thing
Porterhouse is my favorite cut of meat but If I had to eat it for breakfast, lunch and dinner for 6 weeks I would surely make its way to the bottom of my favorite cuts of meat list right under buffalo testicles. Saratoga has been running 10 or 11 races a day since the meet began. While the action has been intriguing it has reached a point where it is too much action. Day after day of five hour cards and 40 page pp printouts have begun to wear thin. I see that Wednesday yet another 10 race beast. This is an area where the obsessive horse racing fan can get into trouble. With all the statebred action this week it may be a good time to tune out for a few days and refresh the mind with other interests.
31 July 2008
Trip To Yonkers Raceway
You could call me a horse racing fanatic, a student of the game or even a gambling degenerate. I look at a race card 4 or 5 days a week, the sport crosses my mind many times a day and I even took step to make this web page to express my constant thoughts of racing. I love blackjack, have entered poker tournaments, have been playing dice for almost 20 years and I am not even in my mid-thirties. As someone that lives a stones throw from Yonkers you would figure that I would be there on a weekly basis, perhaps I could even be the customer of the month and have some reserved spot near the door. That is not the case, I have only had been there two times and last night made the third time.
With some time to kill the wife and I headed out there to check the place out and see what goes on there. The auto parking is on the backstretch which is a big hike from the doors. They have shuttle buses to get you from your car to the action. The female driver of the bus took to time to launch an official sounding announcement that warned us to leave with the loot if we hit for big and not to give it back. The first thing you see when you walk in the door is rows and rows of slots. You have to walk past hundreds of slots before you see a horse. The slots have various references to TV like Wheel Of Fortune slots and other things that may appeal to the targeted blue hair demographic. Yonkers offers slots in denominations of 1 cent to $5. I pulled some cash out of my bankroll and funded my wife so she could test the machines out. In Vegas a slot player can usually can last a little while before the bankroll taps out but this was like a dropping a crisp $100 bill in a toilet bowl. You just watched as the money spins around and it is soon gone. These things where tighter than a ducks rump. I could not imagine that any person with an IQ above 80 would enjoy this form of gambling or think they could grind out a profit. The reels were spinning but nothing was hitting. It was not only mindless but it was laughably hopeless. Maybe it was the time of the month(the first of the month is a key day for the patrons there) but the slots were pretty empty at 9PM on a Wednesday evening. I could not understand how this experience could appeal to anyone.
Then we went outside for the races. I am a gambler, I started gambling when I was 5 years old playing gin rummy with the old ladies that lived in my building. Then there was ceilo at lunch and after school in High School and trips to Aqueduct/Belmont every Saturday. With all of this gambling over the last 27 years I have never placed a wager on a harness race. I was all set to bet on the the trotters at Yonkers. I go to the window to make an exacta part wheel with 5 minutes to post. There must have been 10 people in line. I got shut out with 5 minutes to post! The patrons and tellers were so slow and there was so much line capping that I never made it to the window. I look up and the win pool was a minuscule $1700 which I thought was pathetic. The race goes off and #2 Blue Boy breaks first and is 5/2. Blue Boy easily makes the lead and is all of a sudden drops from 5/2 down to 3/2 when they hit the far turn. Considering the size of the pool I guess a $20 win bet could have knocked the winner down 3 or 4 ticks.
Needless to say I will not be returning to Yonkers anytime soon.
With some time to kill the wife and I headed out there to check the place out and see what goes on there. The auto parking is on the backstretch which is a big hike from the doors. They have shuttle buses to get you from your car to the action. The female driver of the bus took to time to launch an official sounding announcement that warned us to leave with the loot if we hit for big and not to give it back. The first thing you see when you walk in the door is rows and rows of slots. You have to walk past hundreds of slots before you see a horse. The slots have various references to TV like Wheel Of Fortune slots and other things that may appeal to the targeted blue hair demographic. Yonkers offers slots in denominations of 1 cent to $5. I pulled some cash out of my bankroll and funded my wife so she could test the machines out. In Vegas a slot player can usually can last a little while before the bankroll taps out but this was like a dropping a crisp $100 bill in a toilet bowl. You just watched as the money spins around and it is soon gone. These things where tighter than a ducks rump. I could not imagine that any person with an IQ above 80 would enjoy this form of gambling or think they could grind out a profit. The reels were spinning but nothing was hitting. It was not only mindless but it was laughably hopeless. Maybe it was the time of the month(the first of the month is a key day for the patrons there) but the slots were pretty empty at 9PM on a Wednesday evening. I could not understand how this experience could appeal to anyone.
Then we went outside for the races. I am a gambler, I started gambling when I was 5 years old playing gin rummy with the old ladies that lived in my building. Then there was ceilo at lunch and after school in High School and trips to Aqueduct/Belmont every Saturday. With all of this gambling over the last 27 years I have never placed a wager on a harness race. I was all set to bet on the the trotters at Yonkers. I go to the window to make an exacta part wheel with 5 minutes to post. There must have been 10 people in line. I got shut out with 5 minutes to post! The patrons and tellers were so slow and there was so much line capping that I never made it to the window. I look up and the win pool was a minuscule $1700 which I thought was pathetic. The race goes off and #2 Blue Boy breaks first and is 5/2. Blue Boy easily makes the lead and is all of a sudden drops from 5/2 down to 3/2 when they hit the far turn. Considering the size of the pool I guess a $20 win bet could have knocked the winner down 3 or 4 ticks.
Needless to say I will not be returning to Yonkers anytime soon.
Bonus Power Play Of The Day 31JULY
Race 8 Saratoga
Another power play at a big price has been identified by the powercap. This race seems to have a huge amount of speed and a big speed duel looms. Set to benefit from this speed duel is #7 Imagistic. This filly has a few conditioning races under her girth and has the pace set up to win this over the same track and surface she broke her maiden over last year.
Race 8 Win #7 Imagistic
36 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.48
------------------------------------------
Special power cap double play since the dual plays of the day are in consecutive races.
Big DD 3/7
DD 3,4,6,9 / 7
DD 3 / 4,5,7,8
Another power play at a big price has been identified by the powercap. This race seems to have a huge amount of speed and a big speed duel looms. Set to benefit from this speed duel is #7 Imagistic. This filly has a few conditioning races under her girth and has the pace set up to win this over the same track and surface she broke her maiden over last year.
Race 8 Win #7 Imagistic
36 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.48
------------------------------------------
Special power cap double play since the dual plays of the day are in consecutive races.
Big DD 3/7
DD 3,4,6,9 / 7
DD 3 / 4,5,7,8
31JULY Power Play
Saratoga Race 7
Approved by Dylan is cutting back from a 12 and and 14 furlong race. This is a very powerful form factor for a turf horse. Looks like he will be very strong in the lane on the cutback and could light up the toteboard off his 12-1 morning line. Horse is a professional racehorse and could be closing stoutly here at a big price push the powercap ROI even further into the black.
Race 7
Win #3 Approved By Dylan
36 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.48
Approved by Dylan is cutting back from a 12 and and 14 furlong race. This is a very powerful form factor for a turf horse. Looks like he will be very strong in the lane on the cutback and could light up the toteboard off his 12-1 morning line. Horse is a professional racehorse and could be closing stoutly here at a big price push the powercap ROI even further into the black.
Race 7
Win #3 Approved By Dylan
36 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.48
29 July 2008
30JUL Power Bomb Of The Day
Saratoga Race 6
If you had a tough first week at the Spa and the 11 race a day 6 day a week a grind is getting to you I may have an out to take you to East Elationville. Race 6 is a 11 furlong test on the inner turf that is completely void of speed. Sometimes these long turf races are won by a speed horse when all the others are under a hammer lock saving something for the finish. Many times the majority of a turf marathon field will save and save energy and find they are too late to run down that pacesetter who has been clear and loose on the lead. This situation is possible in race 6 and a 30-1 bomb stands to benefit. Chasing The Crown is a turf speed horse who finds himself the lone speed in here. He is third off the bench and should now possess the requisite stamina to win this race. The 7 furlong race sharpened his speed and the 10 furlong race increased his lung capacity. he should be ready today and at this price he is worth a play.
Saratoga Race 6
Win #8 Chasing The Crown
36 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.48
If you had a tough first week at the Spa and the 11 race a day 6 day a week a grind is getting to you I may have an out to take you to East Elationville. Race 6 is a 11 furlong test on the inner turf that is completely void of speed. Sometimes these long turf races are won by a speed horse when all the others are under a hammer lock saving something for the finish. Many times the majority of a turf marathon field will save and save energy and find they are too late to run down that pacesetter who has been clear and loose on the lead. This situation is possible in race 6 and a 30-1 bomb stands to benefit. Chasing The Crown is a turf speed horse who finds himself the lone speed in here. He is third off the bench and should now possess the requisite stamina to win this race. The 7 furlong race sharpened his speed and the 10 furlong race increased his lung capacity. he should be ready today and at this price he is worth a play.
Saratoga Race 6
Win #8 Chasing The Crown
36 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.48
Spa Bomb Parade On Maniac Monday
The Spa faithful have seen a barrage of bombs the last few days. On Monday 8 of the 10 races paid boxcars, with the biggest price being Unflagging a Weaver first time starter at 30-1. (how great is weaver on the turf off the bench?) This has to be tough on the action junkies who could not be coming up with these illogical horses race after race. Mondays at the Spa have traditionally been the day for all hell to break loose, today it broke loose with a vengeance.
For example look at 22-1 winner Cagey Girl. She failed miserably last race where she was a lone speed on the speed favoring Belmont Inner Course. At a short 7-2 price she never made the top even with a sweetheart lone speed set-up on paper. On Monday she had to deal with many other speed horses in a much stronger field. Reflecting the increased saltiness of the field Cagey Girls price ballooned to 22-1 as the crowd did not take her very seriously as a win prospect. Left alone on a lonesome lead she cruised to victory with out being challenged by any of the other speed horses like Stormy Relations or Absolute Heaven that figured to press her into defeat.
Seems like the way to make money on these cards is to find a core opinion and cover unlikely scenarios around it. Make chaos your friend. If someone liked 2-1 Kodiac Kowboy they could have flipped a $6 winner into a $37K score with the right use of bombs surrounding him in the pick 4 sequence. For those who have not been able to get a piece of the big price action time may be running out, things are bound to settle down as the meet moves on, at least outside of Maniac Mondays. For those of us in the red we have five weeks weeks to get back to the black.
For example look at 22-1 winner Cagey Girl. She failed miserably last race where she was a lone speed on the speed favoring Belmont Inner Course. At a short 7-2 price she never made the top even with a sweetheart lone speed set-up on paper. On Monday she had to deal with many other speed horses in a much stronger field. Reflecting the increased saltiness of the field Cagey Girls price ballooned to 22-1 as the crowd did not take her very seriously as a win prospect. Left alone on a lonesome lead she cruised to victory with out being challenged by any of the other speed horses like Stormy Relations or Absolute Heaven that figured to press her into defeat.
Seems like the way to make money on these cards is to find a core opinion and cover unlikely scenarios around it. Make chaos your friend. If someone liked 2-1 Kodiac Kowboy they could have flipped a $6 winner into a $37K score with the right use of bombs surrounding him in the pick 4 sequence. For those who have not been able to get a piece of the big price action time may be running out, things are bound to settle down as the meet moves on, at least outside of Maniac Mondays. For those of us in the red we have five weeks weeks to get back to the black.
28 July 2008
Godolphin Should Enter Music Note In The Travers
The fastest classic race run this year by a three year old was run by a filly. After watching the Coaching Club American Oaks I think that Godolphin would be shrewd to run her in the Travers against the boys instead of the Alabama. This years filly group has been a bumper crop. Eight Belles, Proud Spell, Little Belle, Music Note and Pure Clan are the leaders of an outstanding group of three year old fillys. The Alabama could be as strong or even stronger than the Travers for a smaller purse. If Godolphin runs Music Note in the Travers they still have the capable Little Belle to represent the blue and white in the Alabama. Not only will Music Note have a great shot to win the Travers but she will have an extra week of rest to prepare for the race. It would truly be a highlight of the racing season at Saratoga if Music Note hits a high note in the Travers.
27 July 2008
27JUL Play Of The Day
Saratoga Race 1
Let's get this one over with so we can go out and enjoy the day. In race one the heavy morning line chalk Yelt has not won outside of Calder and is a Dutrow horse that has not worked in almost a month. This looks like a classic vulnerable favorite. The second choice is a Churchill shipper with a terminal case of seconditus. The third choice has very little back class breaking the maiden for 20K at Calder . The forth choice is another Churchill shipper that looks for his third win in a row. I think the ship and the step up in class will do this one in. This lets us go deep into the field for 10-1 morning line Loaves And Dishes. This one failed last out as the chalk in a N1X allowance but now drops in class to claimers for the first time since January. The last time this one ran for a tag it meant a big win. Loaves also won going long twice so the seven panels should not be an issue. At 10-1 Loaves and Dishes is an excellent value and a good key in the early double and pick 3.
Saratoga Race 1
Win #7 Loaves And Dishes
35 7-4-5
strike rate 20%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.55
Let's get this one over with so we can go out and enjoy the day. In race one the heavy morning line chalk Yelt has not won outside of Calder and is a Dutrow horse that has not worked in almost a month. This looks like a classic vulnerable favorite. The second choice is a Churchill shipper with a terminal case of seconditus. The third choice has very little back class breaking the maiden for 20K at Calder . The forth choice is another Churchill shipper that looks for his third win in a row. I think the ship and the step up in class will do this one in. This lets us go deep into the field for 10-1 morning line Loaves And Dishes. This one failed last out as the chalk in a N1X allowance but now drops in class to claimers for the first time since January. The last time this one ran for a tag it meant a big win. Loaves also won going long twice so the seven panels should not be an issue. At 10-1 Loaves and Dishes is an excellent value and a good key in the early double and pick 3.
Saratoga Race 1
Win #7 Loaves And Dishes
35 7-4-5
strike rate 20%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.55
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
