European Acclimation Issues At Santa Anita

With the new pro-ride track at Santa Anita the Breeders Cup is expecting a large contingent of European horses to contest the cup this year. While the Europeans may like the sound of a $5 million race over a synthetic surface I am not sure if their horses will like the weather. The temperature on track has been close to 100 degrees Fahrenheit. European horses that are used to cool fall temperatures are going to be in for a shock when they arrive in California and it is not only hot but on fire. The end of October is the fire season in California. If these tempertures continue and a Santa Ana wind develops the canyons surronding Santa Anita will surely ignite. Turning a tempertuire issue into a air quality-temperturte issue.











Spirit One won the Arlington Million with authority. He was bet all the way down to 9-2 in last weekends Goodwood. The horse was visually washed out and having issues with the heat in the post parade. While it has been hot before when the Breeders Cup was run at Santa Anita never before has it been run over a synthetic surface. This Pro-Ride track is dark in color and it absorbs the heat. Combine that with the odor of the polymers, plastics and soft rubber it is not a pleasant experience for horse or rider. From DRF: Bejarano's agent, Joe Ferrer, said Bejarano told him, "I have never been so hot in my life."

10 Year Old Evening Attire Retired

One of our favorites, ten year old Evening Attire has been retired. Year after year this guy has run his heart out. Here are a few of my favorite Evening Attire races.

Here Evening Attire faces off with Champion Street Cry, a horse that already has sons at stud.


Here Evening Attire runs in a graded stakes at 9 years old. A race that made many people very happy.

Improved Race Commentary At NYRA

Andy Serling has joined the on-air team at NYRA and really has pumped up the media content from NYRA. He actually picks winners at a price and provides his personal handicapping insight. A good example of his work is the new Trips and Traps segment that he and Eric Donovan hosted on the NYRA Youtube channel. This is very good information for a public handicapper.

21st September Play Of The Day

Belmont Park Race 6
#2 William T has this field over a barrel. He is the only horse here that has been making up ground in the lane. Willy sports fresh third off layoff form and goes to the post for a top barn. The distance of 1 1/8th could be a issue for many horses, but with Willy T's breeding and prior record at longer distances this should not be an issue. Look for this guy to overhaul this field in the lane. Good key in the horizontal exotics.

Belmont Race 6 Win #2 William T

45 8-7-6
strike rate 18%
cumulative return $94.20
$2 ROI $2.09

Belmont Park September 17th Trip report

Spent a rare Wednesday at Belmont. It was a beautiful late summer afternoon. A welcome nip is spicing the air. Took a nice long ride down on the 7th ave IRT and the LIRR. Started the trip in the Bronx.











225 Street #1 Subway where the trip began










Penn Station platform for the train to Belmont, train was at 2% passenger capacity. The LIRR could have subbed a minibus instead of an 8 car transit behemoth for the trip Penn-Belmont.








The desolate ramp leading to the LIRR station at Belmont after the finale.

NYRA is doing to everything they can to promote Curlin. Posters all over the track along with emails and websites dedicated to his run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Race Notes

Race 1
I was in the paddock for this race. John's Jean is a fractious filly. She refused to be saddled and almost held up the post
parade. When the groom and valet finally had her ready to go she spooked,
reared and flipped. Her skull absorbed much the impact of her crash into the ground, it was
ugly. John's Jean walked away but keep this in mind next time she runs. The
winner from Maryland Ocala Gator was an absolute steal at 4-1. The
trainer sent up his hottest blond groom and I knew this
one was a go as soon as looked at her last race. Gator is a runner.

Race 3

Goldsville had a horror trip. Trapped on the rail and lost all momentum at the top of lane. Surprised this one was not on the pace. Jeffrey Sanchez strikes his first blow.

Race 6
Spoke to a pair of California tourists on the LIRR inbound to Belmont. We
spoke about how safe the Spa was compared to Del Mar with nil
breakdowns on the Spa main track compared to five at Del Mar. After the sixth race I felt like I jinxed it. Poor Cape Cod Escape could not escape her fate and died on the track today at the top of the lane. I felt so bad for her.

Race 7
Jeffrey Sanchez strikes again. Alyssa Givonna was full of run on the rail for 3/8ths of a mile but Sanchez could not work his way out of the switch. This mare needs a trip, she seems generous.

Race 8
The winner of this race Blitzen Too is going places. Future NYB
stakes winner. Tractable and powerful in the lane, she is a very nice filly.

Race 9
Do not bet anyone out of this race unless they drop in class to the
bottom. All ten of them had the reverse lights on in the lane.


A few low quality pics from my mobile phone.











Barclay Tagg saddling Daring Dreamer race 1











Eibar Coa mounting Wonderwho'sbest before the 6th race












The game and honest Peleliu has her picture taken after winning race 6. Jorge Chavez was up Randi Persaud is the trainer for Calabrese Partners Racing Stable.

What Is A Power Cap?

What is a Power Cap, is it this thing?






Definitely not.

Is it a special hat that you wear that magically directs you towards the winners of horse races?
No, once again it is not a cap that you wear.

Is it a computer program or a motor driven tool?
No it is not, the only power is organic and is supplied by the hand, wrist and arm muscles.

If it is not powered or a Cap what the heck is it?
The Powercap is an old fashioned pen and ink handicapping method to find winners at overlaid prices.

The Powercap is inspired by the principles of William Scott and Total Victory At The Track. Basically you are taking basic math, some elbow grease and track positional bias knowledge to outwork your parimutuel adversaries. While it can be tedious filling up notebooks with hand scribbled speed figures and run style equations it can also be very rewarding when your hand made proprietary information leads you to a generous scores.

Pictured below is the actual Powercap for Belmont race 8 and 9 for the 14 of September 2008. The circled numbers represent a form factor edge. A horse with numbers circled across the page holds an edge in every factor of the Powercap. The first equation on the left is PCR (Performance class rating) and is a equation that shows run style and overall ability. The higher the solution to the equation the better the horse. The second equation is ability time and the lower the number the faster the horse. The third group of three letters is a visual short hand for form. The forth notation is a class ranking based on the highest win/place finish and the final notation on the right may be shorthand for a cutback in distance a stretchout in distance or second race off the layoff or something else pertinent. The numbers on the opposite side of the page were the days late wagers, a grand slam and a late pick 4.
















The primary edge of the Powercap is that you are creating your own information. This is proprietary information that nobody else has, unless they steal your ledger. Most of your adversaries in the parimutuel pools are relying on commercial speed figures, sheets or computer picks. Few have the time or will to produce something unique. With commercial speed figures similar information leads to common answers. The Powercap picks originate from a unique point of view, which means a Powercapper is trampling an unworn path, which leads to uncommon answers to the handicapping puzzle. Uncommon answers are the key to parimutuel success. I urge you to heed the words of Robert Frost and find your own road to success in this game.

Big Brown Showed Some Heart Today

Big Brown showed real gameness in the lane today holding off the trio of Shakis, Proudinsky and Silver Tree. At the top of the lane it looked like he was going to get overwhelmed and passed by that threesome of older graded stakes winners. He held well and was as game as could be. As a three year old beating older on a surface switch I thought it was a great effort. However at 3-5 all I could do was tip my cap to him as I thought he was a huge bet against today. Wrong again, but it was sure fun watching.

13th Of September Power play

Cozzi Capital looks like a potential huge overlay. Still in the sweet
spot of the form cycle and cuts back from 9 and 8.5 furlongs to a
mile. Seems to love wet turf. Beat Waquoits Love at Monmouth and
that one will likely be half the price of Cozzi Capital today. Cozzi is the one to use
in exotics as the value horse. Use with Say You Will and Criminologist. Turf only play.

Belmont Park Race 6 Win #2 Cozzi Capital 20-1 ML


45 8-7-6
strike rate 18%
cumulative return $94.20
$2 ROI $2.09