Saratoga Race 7 High Rock Springs Stakes
After two days of watching the races and largely sitting on my hands I am anxious to make a move. In the High Rock Springs Stakes I feel #6 Future Prospect should be all speed and take this field wire to wire. Going to key The Prospect in all the late bets from doubles to pick 4's. Will have a win bet going if the price is right and the paddock/parade impression is acceptable. Two nice works since his last race confirm that his sharp form remains in tact for this race. Last race was huge in defeat as the horse he lost to Wishful Tomcat is sure to move on to bigger and better things in the graded stakes ranks. After grudgingly giving up the lead to Tomcat the horses could not even get close to him. Track figures to be a sloppy mess and this should help the frontrunning gambit of Future Prospect.
Race 7 Win #6 Future Prospect
Pre-Saratoga Play Of The Day Stats 2009
31 13-3-1
strike rate 42%
cumulative return 99.30
$2 ROI $3.20
Power cap- existential handicapping
31 July 2009
30 July 2009
No Program Numbers
A few years ago I was out in Vegas on one of these frequent excursions I go on. As much as I like playing horses I am also a card player going back to 1981. When I was 5 years old I played gin rummy just about everyday with Rose Casini and her elderly friends who used to babysit me.
For years I have been making money playing blackjack using my own personal martingale system, while the house had come close, they had not busted me out in years. As my winning streak grew year after year my confidence did not identify the danger of a big bust out while using my Martingale system. This was the day things went haywire for me in blackjack for the first time in a long time.
I had a large bet down after winning a bunch of hands in a row just a few minutes after arriving from the airport. I got dealt a pair of 6's which I split because the dealer had showed a bust card. Then unbelievably I got dealt another 6 and then yet another. So I was split four ways to the dealers bust card. The way things worked out I ended up doubling two of the hands and had a significant portion of my bankroll on the table. Long story short but the horror of defeat rushed over me and the dealer pulls a twenty one from out of nowhere. So now I was down and out. I went on tilt and lost the rest of the bankroll shortly after this bizarre hand just thirty minutes after arriving from New York. Dejected and rejected I moseyed over to the sports book to play my last $5 before I turned this gambling trip into a hike to Red Rock Canyon. With the bankroll brutalized I needed to walk off the pain/kill time. As I last ditch effort I sit down in the sports book to look at the racing form and try to make something out of nothing.
It was a Tuesday and 5 MTP to a race at Colonial downs. On Tuesday the Vegas racing form does not have program numbers only names. Quickly looking at the form the third horse down looked tremendous on paper. Form, class, speed and nice works. I look up and the horse is 75-1! What a great price! I run up there to the tellers and bet my last $5. Then I go back to the seat and notice my huge mistake. There was an entry and the 3 that I thought was 75-1 was actually the 4 horse One Genius who was returning from a 7 month layoff and was first time turf coming off horrible races while stepping up in class.
The horse I thought I was betting at 75-1 was actually the 6-5 chalk. As we move to post time the number 4 horse I am now stuck with clicks up to 99-1. Not only did I lose my ass at blackjack with uncharacteristic liberal play but now I am betting my last $5 like a moron on the wrong horses in the sportsbook.
They break from the gate and I have my head in my hands as I am mumbling some gibberish to myself. The 6-5 chalk takes the lead with the 4 horse One Genius tracking the pace in the pocket. They stay that way around the clubhouse turn and along the backside.
As they turn for home One Genius is still in the race. One Genius switches out and I switch out from the seat to the aisle of the sports book. I drop to my knees and start pounding the floor with both fists as I am yelling as loud as I could for One Genius to get up. This was championship caliber rooting drawn from my days at a dirty OTB in Queens, you know the kind of rooting that offends people. It was a nip and tuck duel for the entire length of the stretch with the chalk and One Genius head bobbing for what seemed like forever.
By the slimmest of margins one Genius scores by a zop in a very dirty photo. The feeling came over me when I knew I won like the feeling you get when you ride the Cyclone in Coney Island for the first time. It was a huge thrill almost like the adrenaline rush you feel when you get away from someone that is trying to kill you if you have ever experienced that. I was out of my mind in the sports book and the whole room was looking at the spectacle I had made of myself. When they post the prices I could not believe it. One Genius paid $217 to win. I have hit much bigger tickets and have done so with thought, handicapping, shrewdness and logic but this mistake hit was the biggest thrill I have ever had in horseplaying.
When someone who watched my hysterics stopped me to ask; how did I pick this crazy 99-1 horse? I paused for a nanosecond and was going to tell him about the program numbers/mistake. But them off the cuff I told him the horse was bred for grass and I knew he would run on grass and he was worth a shot at that price. Dumb luck is highly underrated.
For years I have been making money playing blackjack using my own personal martingale system, while the house had come close, they had not busted me out in years. As my winning streak grew year after year my confidence did not identify the danger of a big bust out while using my Martingale system. This was the day things went haywire for me in blackjack for the first time in a long time.
I had a large bet down after winning a bunch of hands in a row just a few minutes after arriving from the airport. I got dealt a pair of 6's which I split because the dealer had showed a bust card. Then unbelievably I got dealt another 6 and then yet another. So I was split four ways to the dealers bust card. The way things worked out I ended up doubling two of the hands and had a significant portion of my bankroll on the table. Long story short but the horror of defeat rushed over me and the dealer pulls a twenty one from out of nowhere. So now I was down and out. I went on tilt and lost the rest of the bankroll shortly after this bizarre hand just thirty minutes after arriving from New York. Dejected and rejected I moseyed over to the sports book to play my last $5 before I turned this gambling trip into a hike to Red Rock Canyon. With the bankroll brutalized I needed to walk off the pain/kill time. As I last ditch effort I sit down in the sports book to look at the racing form and try to make something out of nothing.
It was a Tuesday and 5 MTP to a race at Colonial downs. On Tuesday the Vegas racing form does not have program numbers only names. Quickly looking at the form the third horse down looked tremendous on paper. Form, class, speed and nice works. I look up and the horse is 75-1! What a great price! I run up there to the tellers and bet my last $5. Then I go back to the seat and notice my huge mistake. There was an entry and the 3 that I thought was 75-1 was actually the 4 horse One Genius who was returning from a 7 month layoff and was first time turf coming off horrible races while stepping up in class.
The horse I thought I was betting at 75-1 was actually the 6-5 chalk. As we move to post time the number 4 horse I am now stuck with clicks up to 99-1. Not only did I lose my ass at blackjack with uncharacteristic liberal play but now I am betting my last $5 like a moron on the wrong horses in the sportsbook.
They break from the gate and I have my head in my hands as I am mumbling some gibberish to myself. The 6-5 chalk takes the lead with the 4 horse One Genius tracking the pace in the pocket. They stay that way around the clubhouse turn and along the backside.
As they turn for home One Genius is still in the race. One Genius switches out and I switch out from the seat to the aisle of the sports book. I drop to my knees and start pounding the floor with both fists as I am yelling as loud as I could for One Genius to get up. This was championship caliber rooting drawn from my days at a dirty OTB in Queens, you know the kind of rooting that offends people. It was a nip and tuck duel for the entire length of the stretch with the chalk and One Genius head bobbing for what seemed like forever.
By the slimmest of margins one Genius scores by a zop in a very dirty photo. The feeling came over me when I knew I won like the feeling you get when you ride the Cyclone in Coney Island for the first time. It was a huge thrill almost like the adrenaline rush you feel when you get away from someone that is trying to kill you if you have ever experienced that. I was out of my mind in the sports book and the whole room was looking at the spectacle I had made of myself. When they post the prices I could not believe it. One Genius paid $217 to win. I have hit much bigger tickets and have done so with thought, handicapping, shrewdness and logic but this mistake hit was the biggest thrill I have ever had in horseplaying.
When someone who watched my hysterics stopped me to ask; how did I pick this crazy 99-1 horse? I paused for a nanosecond and was going to tell him about the program numbers/mistake. But them off the cuff I told him the horse was bred for grass and I knew he would run on grass and he was worth a shot at that price. Dumb luck is highly underrated.
29 July 2009
Derby Winner Up Against It Down In West Virginia
Looks like the West Virgina Derby is going to be a tough spot for Mine That Bird. This short field with little pace should have Big Drama loose on the lead and alone at the wire the first and second time. Hard to imagine Mine That Bird scoring in this type of situation. Big Drama returns from a big win and sports 4 nice workouts while receiving 11 lbs from Mine That Bird. Big drama's lone speed set-up is a huge tactical advantage. Mine That Bird will earn further respect if he can muster the rally to run down the drama colt.
28 July 2009
Saratoga Primer
With Saratoga just hours away it is time for handicappers to shift gears. Saratoga offers three basic things. First it offers large competitive fields which are not avsai see downstate or at other tracks. Second Saratoga offers access to value and amateur money. At the downstate racing venues there is very little dumb money in the pools; the wagering is strictly shark on shark. Saratoga’s charm is enough to introduce some chum into the water. More people play their wife’s age at Saratoga in one race than wives ages are played all winter at Aqueduct. The final thing Saratoga offers is racing as an event. If drinking Cisco out of a brown paper bag is Aqueduct; Saratoga is a sipping a fine vintage of Dom Perignon. There are storylines that pique the interest between the lines of the racing form. Horses are pointed here and everyone wants to be in the winners circle.
As the meet begins I am trimming my wagering strategy away from “power plays” and towards spreading for value. As the meet commences there is an element of chaos. Every field is packed (the opening day card has over 130 horses entered) with entries and unlikely tote busting results are likely. Horses are converging from all points and sometimes form is turned on its side. Do not be afraid to make chaos your friend. As the meet moves forward the chaos will settle down and the surprises will subside.
The bet that will anchor my strategy is the rolling daily double. The double pool typically offers value and with a relatively low take-out I am not afraid to spread on doubles 5 X 3 to try to catch a nice return on a race where there is a vulnerable favorite with several contenders. Other times I may play the wager cold for $20. With the $1 min everyone can afford to vary the bet denomination up and down to express their opinion. With the double a horseplayer is not relegated to the “caveman” spread ticket that most people play in the pick 4. The key for Saratoga handicappers is not to scour the card for winners but for losers. Your first pass over the racing form should be to look for likely losers at a short price. Races with vulnerable chalk are the races to wager on.
Saratoga is an vacation destination. Tourists go there. Tourists do not go to Aqueduct and the tourists that go to Belmont are usually hardcore horseplayers from out of town. These people at Saratoga are there to have fun and they have no idea what they are doing. They play numbers, names, colors and birthdays. As a horseplayer you do not want to be behind these people in line at the windows but these are the people you want to bet against for your entire career as a horseplayer. Saratoga is the last New York meet that provides pari-mutuel access to unsophisticated bankroll.
Uniquely in New York racing, Saratoga is an event. This might be the only meet where the connections of five different horses have their charge sitting on a winning race. At any other meet four of them are going to scratch to find an easier spot. Horses are pointed towards this meet and primed to run a peak effort. For the horseplayer this is the time to pick your spots and use patience. Find the vulnerable favorite on that card and wait for it. While you are waiting learn to watch and enjoy the competition. In the past I have burned myself out playing every day at this meet. Six weeks may be a relatively short meet but it could be a long six weeks if you are playing six days a week ten races a day. Play it cool as the racing heats up. Appreciate the beauty of a venue that still respects the history of racing. If you have not visited I urge you to make the trip up to Saratoga racecourse. Here's to a great meet at Saratoga.
As the meet begins I am trimming my wagering strategy away from “power plays” and towards spreading for value. As the meet commences there is an element of chaos. Every field is packed (the opening day card has over 130 horses entered) with entries and unlikely tote busting results are likely. Horses are converging from all points and sometimes form is turned on its side. Do not be afraid to make chaos your friend. As the meet moves forward the chaos will settle down and the surprises will subside.
The bet that will anchor my strategy is the rolling daily double. The double pool typically offers value and with a relatively low take-out I am not afraid to spread on doubles 5 X 3 to try to catch a nice return on a race where there is a vulnerable favorite with several contenders. Other times I may play the wager cold for $20. With the $1 min everyone can afford to vary the bet denomination up and down to express their opinion. With the double a horseplayer is not relegated to the “caveman” spread ticket that most people play in the pick 4. The key for Saratoga handicappers is not to scour the card for winners but for losers. Your first pass over the racing form should be to look for likely losers at a short price. Races with vulnerable chalk are the races to wager on.
Saratoga is an vacation destination. Tourists go there. Tourists do not go to Aqueduct and the tourists that go to Belmont are usually hardcore horseplayers from out of town. These people at Saratoga are there to have fun and they have no idea what they are doing. They play numbers, names, colors and birthdays. As a horseplayer you do not want to be behind these people in line at the windows but these are the people you want to bet against for your entire career as a horseplayer. Saratoga is the last New York meet that provides pari-mutuel access to unsophisticated bankroll.
Uniquely in New York racing, Saratoga is an event. This might be the only meet where the connections of five different horses have their charge sitting on a winning race. At any other meet four of them are going to scratch to find an easier spot. Horses are pointed towards this meet and primed to run a peak effort. For the horseplayer this is the time to pick your spots and use patience. Find the vulnerable favorite on that card and wait for it. While you are waiting learn to watch and enjoy the competition. In the past I have burned myself out playing every day at this meet. Six weeks may be a relatively short meet but it could be a long six weeks if you are playing six days a week ten races a day. Play it cool as the racing heats up. Appreciate the beauty of a venue that still respects the history of racing. If you have not visited I urge you to make the trip up to Saratoga racecourse. Here's to a great meet at Saratoga.
26 July 2009
OTB Corruption Continues
Here we have a rep from Nassau OTB whining about their lack of access to the Saratoga feed on TV for their Long Island customers. If OTB is so concerned with the horseplayers of New York State being able to watch New York racing, why do they block NYRA from streaming the NYRA feed to their customers on the internet? It was none other than OTB that lobbied Albany to block the internet feed of NYRA racing to New York residents. Seems like some sort of desperate ploy to herd horseplayers into betting at OTB parlors rather than playing at home with a NYRA rewards account. While NYRA was blocked from streaming the signal OTB, went ahead and secretly streamed the signal without NYRA's consent.
Yet another example of how too much government and too much regulation completely kills everything it touches. NYRA is blocked from broadcasting their own in-house signal to protect OTB. OTB is forced to pay money from bets taken on dark days to NYRA, the tangled web of misguided laws leads to a completely dysfunctional operation. If a government can not manage something simple like horserace marketing how can the Fed take to take on healthcare? Downsize this bloated government and get that signal on the internet for New York residents.
25 July 2009
Top Ten Track Slogans
Who can forget famous commercial slogans like "Where's The Beef?" or Nike's "Just Do It". These slogans helped Wendy's crawl out from McDonalds shadow and made Nike the most successful footwear company in the world. It seems like tracks have missed out on the marketing potential of having a slogan that is easy to remember and really catchy. If done right a slogan can embed itself into the minds of the masses. It can take a place that is rarely thought about and make it a place that everyone knows about. Let's get started on bringing a few tracks out of the background and into the public's eye.
10 - Philadelphia Casino & Racetrack - A Totally New Way To Play The Double!
9 - Monmouth Park - Really Really Far From Any Toxic Waste!
8- Keeneland - Our Polytrack Will Amuse You And Confuse You!
7- Aqueduct - Where Snow And Ice Meets Gambling Vice!
6 - Belmont - The Big Empty
photo credit Johnny Evil
5 - Saratoga - We're Not Like Aqueduct At All We're For White People
4 - Suffolk Downs - Home Of The Mass Cap (when we feel like it)
3- Hollywood Park - We Put The Track In Track Housing
2- Mountaineer - Better Than Cockroach Races....You Betcha!!!
1- Del Mar - Where The Sea Foam Meets The Styrofoam
10 - Philadelphia Casino & Racetrack - A Totally New Way To Play The Double!
9 - Monmouth Park - Really Really Far From Any Toxic Waste!
8- Keeneland - Our Polytrack Will Amuse You And Confuse You!
7- Aqueduct - Where Snow And Ice Meets Gambling Vice!
6 - Belmont - The Big Empty
photo credit Johnny Evil
5 - Saratoga - We're Not Like Aqueduct At All We're For White People
4 - Suffolk Downs - Home Of The Mass Cap (when we feel like it)
3- Hollywood Park - We Put The Track In Track Housing
2- Mountaineer - Better Than Cockroach Races....You Betcha!!!
1- Del Mar - Where The Sea Foam Meets The Styrofoam
Extra Zip Play Of The Day
Belmont Race 8
No 12-1 morning line risk taking today. We are going to do this the Smith Barney way, the old fashioned way, earn it on some chalk. Extra Zip drops in class, returns from a big win, has the leading jockey and is lone speed on the inner turf. This horse has more going for him than a handsome 21 year old kid with a rich dad and a drunk Gisele Bundchen on his arm. This horse is either going to win easy or is the most effective capper trap since Secretariat in the 1973 Whitney. I put down the form, looked into Extra Zips eyes and I don't think he is bluffing, he is going to win race 8 handily. Extra Zip is the the single in the late pick 4 and our play of the day.
Win #7 Extra Zip
Stats
30 12-3-1
strike rate 40%
cumulative return 96.20
$2 ROI $3.21
No 12-1 morning line risk taking today. We are going to do this the Smith Barney way, the old fashioned way, earn it on some chalk. Extra Zip drops in class, returns from a big win, has the leading jockey and is lone speed on the inner turf. This horse has more going for him than a handsome 21 year old kid with a rich dad and a drunk Gisele Bundchen on his arm. This horse is either going to win easy or is the most effective capper trap since Secretariat in the 1973 Whitney. I put down the form, looked into Extra Zips eyes and I don't think he is bluffing, he is going to win race 8 handily. Extra Zip is the the single in the late pick 4 and our play of the day.
Win #7 Extra Zip
Stats
30 12-3-1
strike rate 40%
cumulative return 96.20
$2 ROI $3.21
23 July 2009
Today's Bomb Bet & One For The Future
Phone Jazz with Jockey Salmon(per ESPN) runs back today and has a good chance to go wire to wire in a pace-less race. This unknown maiden became famous when ESPN did a feature on him earlier this year when he dumped old master Jean-Luc Samyn and went wire to wire riderless.
Look for Southside Babe when she races back. This mare was full of run today but was the victim of turf traffic in today's Belmont race 8. She surely would have been a winner if she has half a trip.
Look for Southside Babe when she races back. This mare was full of run today but was the victim of turf traffic in today's Belmont race 8. She surely would have been a winner if she has half a trip.
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