With all of the doom and gloom in the racing industry Saratoga was a definite bright spot. It seems like both summer (Del mar is the other) boutique meets had better than expected numbers; these are signs that fan interest is focusing on the better racing even has marginal racino tracks raise purses. These numbers lend credence to the opinion that it is time for racing to eliminate marginal content. The highlights of the meet was of course Rachel Alexandra who surely minted a few thousand new racing fans this summer. Even the most obtuse horseplayers who could care less about equine achievements were moved by Rachel's stirring victory in the Woodward.
The year of the female in racing certainly continued at Saratoga. Not only were most of the notable performances by fillies and mares but a female claimed the training title of the first time. Linda Rice dominated the turf sprint races as she had entry after entry run one big race after another. Careless Jewel ran a tremendous race in the Alabama, especially considering her wild pre-race antics. Icon Project projected her speed in the Personal Ensign with a break-out 13 length tour de force. Of course the highlight of the meet was Rachel Alexandra, so much has been written about her but her greatest achievement is in illuminating the appeal of horse racing to new fans. Saratoga proved to be the perfect venue for Rachel to run her greatest race. A house packed with old and new fans and she "raised the rafters"giving people a memory that they will never forget.
Power cap- existential handicapping
11 September 2009
05 September 2009
Footwear Play Of The Day
Saratoga race 1
There are two need the lead types in here and one is sporting a bar show while the other is going to model an aluminum pad. My policy has always been to toss horses wearing therapeutic horse shoes and except for a few exceptions it has worked out well over the years. My other opinion here is that there is going to be a "big race day" speed favoring track out there. So from right off the pace D' Wild Affair should be able to pass the need the leads after stalking and hold on for the win and about 8-1. Fresh and ready to win.
Win #4 D' Wild Affair
The Stats
41 15-7-3
strike rate 37%
cumulative return 112.90
$2 ROI $2.75
There are two need the lead types in here and one is sporting a bar show while the other is going to model an aluminum pad. My policy has always been to toss horses wearing therapeutic horse shoes and except for a few exceptions it has worked out well over the years. My other opinion here is that there is going to be a "big race day" speed favoring track out there. So from right off the pace D' Wild Affair should be able to pass the need the leads after stalking and hold on for the win and about 8-1. Fresh and ready to win.
Win #4 D' Wild Affair
The Stats
41 15-7-3
strike rate 37%
cumulative return 112.90
$2 ROI $2.75
04 September 2009
Right Sizing The Racing Product
The key issue affecting the racing product is the sheer amount of the product. On any given Saturday in North America there are upwards of two dozens tracks operating with a race commencing every minute. With this much product racing ceases to be an event and resembles an infomercial for a kitchen appliance on a never ending loop in a deserted big box store that nobody goes to in some anonymous blanched suburb. Go to any simulcast center or OTB and every race looks the same. In silence it is anonymous claimers running around in a circle, while older working class men yell and slap their behinds with the racing form. Instead of a complex blood and guts puzzle to contemplate the game is reduced to keno with domesticated animals.
Racing does not need to reinvent the wheel to bring back the big-event nature of the game. The white hot and trendy UFC only holds fights every few weeks. Thus every fight is hotly anticipated as a lack of supply stokes demand. Anticipation is marginalized when in a three minute span the 5th race from Finger Lakes is shortly followed by the 5th from Delaware which is followed by the 4th from Ellis.
This is where government intervention has damaged the collective racing product. The permission to subsidize purses with slot machine revenue has created entirely too much product. Racing has ceased to be a hobby of the wealthy and has become welfare for horsemen. While everyone deserves to be paid for their hard work they should not be subsidized when their work no longer has a market. Should neighborhood shoe repair stores be brought back from the service industry graveyard and be subsidized by slots too? Most of these racino subsidized tracks have an unappealing product and a purse structure that could never exist if not for the slot machine subsidy. Their presence is hurting the existence of neighboring tracks that operate on parimutuel waging alone pressuring them to acquire a slot machine subsidy as well.
The sheer amount of racing not only reduces the appeal of the racino product but it also dilutes the appeal of tracks in neighboring jurisdictions siphoning stables and decimating competition thus neutralizing the appeal of the product. The expansion of gambling from parimutuel wagering and Las Vegas to slots machines in every region is another example of the enlightenment establishment not considering the unintended consequences of their meddling. The horse racing industry has not benefited from the increased gambling even when it enriches the purse structure temporarily it sets in motion the process that will eventually ruin the collective industry by market saturation and the loss of the fickle public as racing fans.
In the past I have advocated a laissez faire approach to the current challenges of the horse racing industry. Call it an intellectual breakthrough but I now believe that the laissez faire approach is the road to ruin for racing. There are too many jurisdictions with too many local interests that have the game "drifting like a rudderless ship". At this point centralized influence and power would greatly help in providing "friendly persuasion" to the market forces affecting racing. The ship can not continue to drift and take on more product while the bulkhead of the ship takes on more water.
Racing does not need to reinvent the wheel to bring back the big-event nature of the game. The white hot and trendy UFC only holds fights every few weeks. Thus every fight is hotly anticipated as a lack of supply stokes demand. Anticipation is marginalized when in a three minute span the 5th race from Finger Lakes is shortly followed by the 5th from Delaware which is followed by the 4th from Ellis.
This is where government intervention has damaged the collective racing product. The permission to subsidize purses with slot machine revenue has created entirely too much product. Racing has ceased to be a hobby of the wealthy and has become welfare for horsemen. While everyone deserves to be paid for their hard work they should not be subsidized when their work no longer has a market. Should neighborhood shoe repair stores be brought back from the service industry graveyard and be subsidized by slots too? Most of these racino subsidized tracks have an unappealing product and a purse structure that could never exist if not for the slot machine subsidy. Their presence is hurting the existence of neighboring tracks that operate on parimutuel waging alone pressuring them to acquire a slot machine subsidy as well.
The sheer amount of racing not only reduces the appeal of the racino product but it also dilutes the appeal of tracks in neighboring jurisdictions siphoning stables and decimating competition thus neutralizing the appeal of the product. The expansion of gambling from parimutuel wagering and Las Vegas to slots machines in every region is another example of the enlightenment establishment not considering the unintended consequences of their meddling. The horse racing industry has not benefited from the increased gambling even when it enriches the purse structure temporarily it sets in motion the process that will eventually ruin the collective industry by market saturation and the loss of the fickle public as racing fans.
In the past I have advocated a laissez faire approach to the current challenges of the horse racing industry. Call it an intellectual breakthrough but I now believe that the laissez faire approach is the road to ruin for racing. There are too many jurisdictions with too many local interests that have the game "drifting like a rudderless ship". At this point centralized influence and power would greatly help in providing "friendly persuasion" to the market forces affecting racing. The ship can not continue to drift and take on more product while the bulkhead of the ship takes on more water.
31 August 2009
$5 Million Beldame Challenge~The Race Of Our Lifetime
When we look back at 2009 it is going to be remembered as the year of the filly. Fillies and mares have dominated from coast to coast. So many of them have amazed us with dazzling performances that have dropped jaws and lit up speed figure charts. It would be absolutely extraordinary if a benevolent sponsor offered up an enhanced purse for the Beldame this year. Now is the time, the horses and the rivalry are here right now. NYRA/TVG have promised a million but there are million dollar races throughout the summer. This is a special occasion and it calls for a special race with a huge purse.
Imagine a race that corralled all of the filly all-stars. What about the $3 million Ladies Classic at Santa Anita? It is just not the same on that synthetic surfaces especially without division leader Rachel Alexandra. This distaff classic has to be at Belmont and it must be on dirt. The star studded field of recent big winners would be Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, Icon Project, Seventh Street, Music Note and Careless Jewel. Let them fill out the field to twelve runners to generate maximum handle. There would not be enough words to describe the excitement that a race like this would generate.
Imagine a race that corralled all of the filly all-stars. What about the $3 million Ladies Classic at Santa Anita? It is just not the same on that synthetic surfaces especially without division leader Rachel Alexandra. This distaff classic has to be at Belmont and it must be on dirt. The star studded field of recent big winners would be Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, Icon Project, Seventh Street, Music Note and Careless Jewel. Let them fill out the field to twelve runners to generate maximum handle. There would not be enough words to describe the excitement that a race like this would generate.
30 August 2009
Travers Hangover Play Of the Day
Saratoga Race 10 Personal Ensign Stakes
No Hangover at Power Cap as we picked our spots on the Travers card and have plenty of handicapping vigor left to take on Sundays card. We are looking for the weekend stakes double for Capt. Candy Man's trainer Ian Wilkes. His charge Miss Isella is the power filly in the Personal Ensign. Go back and watch this filly's replays. It is clear that she has the heart of a champion to go along with her talent. Twice at Churchill she determinedly bullied her through up a narrow opening and scored over a horse that had a much better trip. Willing to forgive the loss last time on the bog to the speedy Seventh Street. I figure it is going to take a huge performance from another contender or a disastrous trip to get Miss Isella beat today. She is the most likely winner of the day, hoping for 2-1 and some value in the exotics.
Win #4 Miss Isella
The Stats
40 15-7-3
strike rate 38%
cumulative return 112.90
$2 ROI $2.82
No Hangover at Power Cap as we picked our spots on the Travers card and have plenty of handicapping vigor left to take on Sundays card. We are looking for the weekend stakes double for Capt. Candy Man's trainer Ian Wilkes. His charge Miss Isella is the power filly in the Personal Ensign. Go back and watch this filly's replays. It is clear that she has the heart of a champion to go along with her talent. Twice at Churchill she determinedly bullied her through up a narrow opening and scored over a horse that had a much better trip. Willing to forgive the loss last time on the bog to the speedy Seventh Street. I figure it is going to take a huge performance from another contender or a disastrous trip to get Miss Isella beat today. She is the most likely winner of the day, hoping for 2-1 and some value in the exotics.
Win #4 Miss Isella
The Stats
40 15-7-3
strike rate 38%
cumulative return 112.90
$2 ROI $2.82
29 August 2009
Travers Day Washout & The Play Of The Day
Unfortunately this years Travers card is going to be deluged with heavy rain. The Travers looks wide open to me. This is the kind of race where I am going to approach with caution. It is beneficial to absorb the rhythm of the day before committing to one horse the night before.
With conditions sure to be ultra-wet it is doubtful that even the graded stakes turf races will stay on the grass. The good news is I have a few mudders picked out that are sure to run well tomorrow at square prices.
Race 5 - Liscarroll
Race 6 - Mr. Unstoppable & Richland Creek
Race 7 - Selva
Race 10 - Music Note & Tar Heel Mom
Race 11 - Capt. Candyman Can (Play Of The Day)
Race 12- Warrior's Reward
Play Of The Day - Kings Bishop GI
Capt. Candyman Can is going to win the Kings Bishop. He loves the mud and it will take a horse to freak like Quality Road freaked in the Amsterdam to beat him.
Race 11 Win #3 Capt. Candyman Can
The Stats
39 14-7-3
strike rate 36%
cumulative return 103.10
$2 ROI $2.64
With conditions sure to be ultra-wet it is doubtful that even the graded stakes turf races will stay on the grass. The good news is I have a few mudders picked out that are sure to run well tomorrow at square prices.
Race 5 - Liscarroll
Race 6 - Mr. Unstoppable & Richland Creek
Race 7 - Selva
Race 10 - Music Note & Tar Heel Mom
Race 11 - Capt. Candyman Can (Play Of The Day)
Race 12- Warrior's Reward
Play Of The Day - Kings Bishop GI
Capt. Candyman Can is going to win the Kings Bishop. He loves the mud and it will take a horse to freak like Quality Road freaked in the Amsterdam to beat him.
Race 11 Win #3 Capt. Candyman Can
The Stats
39 14-7-3
strike rate 36%
cumulative return 103.10
$2 ROI $2.64
28 August 2009
Justenuffhumor North America's Best Hope For The B.C. Mile
Justenuffhumor is entered in today's Baruch handicap. He has emerged as the leading miler in North America. His form has been sensational reeling off 5 consecutive wins since moving to the turf. He is part of one is most success immediate families in racing with Lewis Michael and Champion Dreaming Of Anna both half siblings. His strength is his turn of foot.
The interesting thing today is that he does not have a workout listed since his score in the fourstardave. This is not Mclaughlin's Modus Operadi. Justenuffhumor may be vulnerable today. If Justenuffhumor can run well today while he may not be at his best, he can solidify his claim as the only horse with a serious chance to beat Goldikova in the B.C. Mile.
The interesting thing today is that he does not have a workout listed since his score in the fourstardave. This is not Mclaughlin's Modus Operadi. Justenuffhumor may be vulnerable today. If Justenuffhumor can run well today while he may not be at his best, he can solidify his claim as the only horse with a serious chance to beat Goldikova in the B.C. Mile.
Naughty New Yorker Becomes A Millionaire
Old war horse Naughty New Yorker pushed past $1 million in earning today with his placing in the Funny Cide stakes at Saratoga. After a year layoff and a few last place finishes it looked like the old war horse would never get to $1 million, he has loomed over $1 million with about $980K in earnings since February 2008. He finally made it past the $1 million plateau with a better run today.
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