Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

28 June 2010

Uncoupled Entries Approved In New York




From DRF.COM
In a change that should give handle a significant boost, the New York State Racing and Wagering Board on Wednesday approved a rule that would uncouple same-trainer, different-owner entries in all races at state tracks.

The rule goes into effect on July 14, the date the next state registry is published. That should allow the New York Racing Association to uncouple entries as early as closing weekend of the Belmont meet. Certainly, the rule will be in place when Saratoga opens on July 23. Currently, multiple horses trained by the same trainer but owned by different parties must be coupled and run as one betting interest.

"Chairman John Sabini and board members Dan Hogan and Charles Diamond were eager to get this done," said Joe Mahoney, a spokesman for the racing and wagering board. "They think this will be a definite plus for the racing industry and they are particularly pleased to put this new rule on the books in advance of the Saratoga racing season. Chairman Sabini is very optimistic that this can help NYRA build handle during the upcoming meet."

While NYRA building handle seems like a reasonable pursuit I think it should not be done against the interest of integrity. While uncoupled entries seems like an innocent detail this really has the potential to impact racing's credibility while littering the product with falsely run intramural races. Like oil in the gulf destroying a vast eco-system you only need one ruinous incident -trainers with multiple entries fixing competition-to decimate the last of racing's trustworthiness. Without credibility there is no more racing.


This rule will affect racing in two ways. The positive effect is that the racing secretary's job just got much easier. Hard to fill races like mares going long on the dirt or higher class allowance races can now fill. Suppose three horses want to run in an allowance. No matter how hard the racing secretary tries he can not find three more to fill the race. All they need to do to make the race go is enter an additional horses from the three barns that already entered. It is in these barns interest to enter these horses so the motivation is built in to enter hopeless race filler with uncoupled entries. In the past these horses would have been coupled in the wagering and the race still could not be carded.

The negative effect is that competition will be reduced. Will these additional horses be competitive? No. Are they even trying to win? Maybe, maybe not but the race will run even if all the runners are not trying. The purse money will be distributed when the falsely run race is over. What the public gets is the opportunity to bet on a falsely run race. It is like betting on weighted dice or a stacked deck; some will know who the real competitors are while most will be in the dark.


The zeitgeist is that daily uncoupled entries will decimate competition. Think allowance races with 6 horses from 2 barns- say 3 from Pletcher and 3 from Dutrow. The 2010 Mother Goose will be the prototype for the daily allowance race. Five horse race three of them from the same barn. Do you think that this was a truly run race? Can we expect entry-mates to duel each other? Uncoupled entry racing is not a real race, it becomes a friendly show of teamwork as barn-mates escort each other to the wire at a pleasure-like pace. It is unfortunate that legislation like this passes with no real input or protection from those who play the horses and fund the purses. The result will be half crooked intramural games where conflicts of interest will play a big role in who wins and this will be info that the public does not have.

The worst part about uncoupled entries is that it greatly increases the chance of a racing fixing incident to occur. It will be the same barns providing multiple entries so that a big horse can get an allowance race- or what is worse barns will be able to create betting coups for the large owner-bettor. perhaps a hopeless looking horse could be entered while the same barns has a 1-5 shot in the same race. With multiple interests having conflicts of interests it would not be that hard to sneak that 35-1 shot home ahead of the 1-5 shot. If word gets out that the fix was in this could be a public relations disaster.


Behind the scenes there will be all sorts of gyrations to make these races go - this is stuff that wagering public is not privy to and stuff that further reduces transparency in a wagering game whose prerequisite for survival is the utmost in integrity. This rule is a huge shot against integrity- you can expect two or three races on a card that are not races at all- it may fly over the head of most but this new rule is a major shot against racing integrity in New York.

27 June 2010

Like Mother Like Daughter~Play Of The Day




Belmont Park Race 9


Looks like Senada is ready for a breakout race today at Belmont Park. It took a graded placed filly to beat her last race; there are no such fillies entered today. The three year old daughter of Owsley should be ready for this race. Senada's mother loved Owsley loved Belmont Park, loved the inner turf and loved 10 furlongs. In fact Owsley won the 2002 New York handicap over the inner turf at this distance. Today is Senada's turn to follow in her dams hoofprints. Who is better training a young horse to negotiate ten furlongs than Barclay Tagg? He has given this $800K purchase plenty of time, has schooled her through 5 works and should have her ready to win. It looks like Senada is going to stalk the pace patsy Gold d' Oro. When Senada takes over at the top of the lane the gaggle of closers entered will run out of gas in the lane over this 10 furlong trip. With horses in the race from the well bet Mott, Clemente and Chad Brown barns we should get a square price on Senada today.

Race 9 Win #8 Senada

17 6-2-1
strike rate 35%
cumulative return $73.60
$2 ROI $4.33
average winner $12.27

25 June 2010

Saturday play of the day




Belmont, Race 9

The Mother Goose Stakes

Yet another year and this race once again draws a small field, the Shuvee and the Ogden Phipps have this same problem on a yearly basis.

#1 Biofuel (5/1)

Taking a flyer on the maple leaf special shipping in for this race. Devil May Care's last race was the Kentucky Derby and she is certain to take the majority of the action here making for little in the way of value. This year's Derby has been a negative race with about half the field coming back with losing efforts off that race so it may be worth a shot to play against what will be a heavy favorite. In Biofuel's last race she closed into a slow pace going two turns and last year she faced a very classy juvenile field that included prominent NY bred Franny Freud.

Current Record:
2 0-0-0

Prairie preview




Tonight is the first of two nights of multi stakes cards at Prairie Meadows Racetrack in Iowa highlighted by the Cornhusker Handicap, which has served as a feeder race into the Whitney Handicap in recent years. A preview of the stakes action is in order, tonight's stakes action features two sprints and a route.

Saylorville Stakes

Seven fillies and mares line up here and Palanka City most likely will go off the favorite. Her last three have been convincing scores with her most recent being a tune up race where she carried 126 pounds and cruised home, the 7/2 morning line is a pipe dream on this one. Realistically her odds will be 2/1 or less and the 2/1 ceiling is being generous.

Secret Gypsy is listed as the morning line favorite at 3/1 and this one will likely overlay the given odds. She has shown a slight resurgence in form with a bullet work and a second place finish in a stakes race at Churchill, but she is nowhere near the same horse she was back in late 2008 into early 2009 when she won the Grade 2 Distaff handicap.

Mindy Queen is in sharp recent form with a recent win over the surface and wins in three out of her five recent starts. However it must be noted that those five starts have been stretched out from August 2009 until recently.

Iowa Distaff

Six older fillies and mares square off and a case can be made for any of the six to make the winner's circle. Wynning Ride is coming east for the shot at the prize money after a tough beat at Hollywood in the Milady Handicap and her only two dirt starts were at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. Chorageous, Hightap, and Patti's Regal Song all exit the Wild Rose stakes which is the local prep for this race so the trip over surface shouldn't hurt them. Euphony is perfect on the surface at two for two and she won this race last year.

Iowa Sprint

Three years ago this race produced champion sprinter Benny The Bull. Majesticperfection was an impressive winner two back reeling off a final quarter in 23.15 seconds drawing away if this horse stays sound he will be a force to be dealt with in the sprint division. The second and third place finishers out of the Aristides Stakes return here, Cash Refund and Atta Boy Roy. They switch spots in the starting gate this time with Cash Refund breaking inside of Atta Boy Roy. This should help Cash Refund who was caught wide over the Churchill conveyor belt last out.

21 June 2010

Post triple crown headlines




Two news items of interest after this last weekend of racing, both items from drf.com.

Mike Lee winner to move up another step in the Jim Dandy

http://www.drf.com/news/article/114089.html

Provided all goes well between now and the end of July, Friend or Foe will most likely make his next start in the $500,000 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga, trainer John Kimmel said Monday.

This is certainly a bold move by the connections of this prospect, he beat a compact field that featured Ibboyee who could not handle the cutback and General Maximus who set a rapid pace that led to his defeat. The triple crown season may be over, but the three year old season is still in full swing. Colizeo was tough to beat in the Northern Dancer and could be a dangerous foe to the top of the division.

Off to the breeding shed

http://www.drf.com/news/article/114082.html

Flash in the pan Line of David has been retired after being sold to B. Wayne Hughes, he was meant to start in the grade 3 Will Rogers Stakes. His only stakes win was a Grade 1 win on a speed biased Oaklawn surface and he ran only seven times. I'm sure this one will really further the breed much like Sinister Minister did.

20 June 2010

Play of the Day and Booze of the Day




The Independence Day stakes weekend looms on the horizon and then racing has a bit of a breather from the big racing up until the opening of the botique meets of Saratoga and Del Mar. At this point of the year I refer to Belmont as summer Aqueduct due to the outstanding cards they draw in that span of time. On to the play of the day.....

Belmont Park, Race 9

#1, Make Note (10/1)

There are two heavy hitters in here that will take a bulk of the action, multiple stakes winner Ibboyee and General Maximus. They are the most likely candidates to win, but offer little in the way of value. Make Note faced General Maximus last out and today gets a six pound shift in the weights and gets an inside post which would provide for a ground saving trip.

Stats:

Pick record: 1 0-0-0

Booze to accompany the Play of the Day in the likely event that part does not work out

Cisco Peach

I cannot do this fine beverage justice with my writeup, I'll let Bumwine.com do the honors with this excerpt:

Known as "liquid crack," for its reputation for wreaking more mental havoc than the cheapest tequila. Something in this syrupy hooch seems to have a synapse-blasting effect not unlike low-grade cocaine. The label insists that the ingredients are merely "citrus wine & grape wine with artificial flavor & artificial color," but anyone who has tried it knows better. Tales of Cisco-induced semi-psychotic fits are common. Often, people on a Cisco binge end up curled into a fetal ball, shuddering and muttering paranoid rants. Nudity and violence may well be involved too. Everyone who drinks this feels great at first, and claims, "It's not bad at all, I like it." But, you really do not want to mess around with this one, because they all sing a different tune a few minutes later. And by tune, I mean the psychotic ramblings of a raging naked bum.

17 June 2010

Make It A Double~ Play Of The Day




Belmont Park Race 7

Yesterday we had dos plays today we are playing Dos Hombres. In a field full of question marks Dos Hombres offers value. I love how this guy was able to close from off the pace in the inner turf last year. He should love the widener turf and we should get an honest pace set up.

W # 7 Dos Hombres

16 5-2-1
strike rate 31%
cumulative return $66.60
$2 ROI $4.16
average winner $13.32

16 June 2010

Magic Showers~Play Of The Day




Belmont Park Race 8

Today we will offer a second play of the day.
Magic Lion looks like the magic pick here off the claim. Should dominate the pace and draw off for fun. The track will be packed down in anticipation of showers. You can anticipate showers of cash when Magic Lion wins and you have him for monster bucks. This colt should be fresh fit and ready to roar. My key horse to cash the grand slam and other wagers.

Win #3 Magic Lion

stats
14 4-2-1
strike rate 29%
cumulative return $62.80
$2 ROI $4.49
average winner $15.70