Purse Explosion at Belmont

Just a few days after they broke ground at Aqueduct the purses have greatly expanded at Belmont. NY bred allowances are running for $56K. $7.5K claimers run for $31K and maiden specials are no $62K. These are tremendous purses. It is no wonder that the entry box has overflowed all week. Yesterday a N3X/75K open (race 7 29OCT10) allowance going long oversubscribed; this was the kind of race NYRA had trouble filling for the last 8 years. If first impressions hold, this casino subsidy could mean great things for New York racing.

Mile and Sprint prep races insight

With the Breeders Cup program ten days away it would be in the best interest of anyone handicapping the event to start looking through the charts of the prep races that were run earlier in the month or in the past two months.

Breeders Cup Mile prep races

First Lady Stakes

There is only one contender using this race as a springboard to the mile and it was the winner, Proviso. She has had a remarkable season with four straight grade one wins including a win in March against male competition. Later on that same card the Shadwell Mile was run with the final time 1/5 of a second slower than the First Lady and a slightly slower last quarter of a mile. From what my figures show Proviso ran a her final quarter of a mile five lengths faster than the average for the Keeneland meet, while not lightning fast she ran faster than the average and could be worth using in the exotics.

Shadwell Mile

Gio Ponti won this race with a closing kick of 23 1/5 seconds which seems fast on paper, but the average final quarter for mile turf races at Keeneland has been 23.7 seconds. From the looks of it he was life and death to catch the leader Courageous Cat at the 1/16 pole. He is being considered for the classic as well, which would be a tough mountain to climb with all the top tier dirt horses signed on and the mile would be a better spot to show his talent.
Courageous Cat may be worth a look at a price for the Mile, he may have moved too soon in this race and could have been short on stamina for this effort coming off of a March layoff. With a race under his belt for the mile he could be a horse that sneaks into the picture as a nice paying longshot.

Breeders Cup Sprint prep races

Vosburgh Stakes

Girolamo won this race coming off a disappointing effort in the Forego up at Saratoga and did so by shaking off the challenge of Riley Tucker. This race came up very fast against the average times for six furlongs at the Belmont fall meet, nine lengths faster than normal on my numbers. The field he beat was probably not the most stellar though, the group assembled for this race was zero for their careers in grade one company and Driven by Success lost last weekend against state bred runners at Belmont.

The Ancient Title Stakes

Synthetic racing usually produces lots of times that deviate much from the average times, Smiling Tiger’s win in this race has been the fastest race of the meet by a lot. His half mile time was 44.53 and the meet average has been 45.93, his finish was clocked in 1:09.17 and the average for ¾ of a mile has been 1:11.11. This race did not get a high beyer speed figure either with a 103, there could be value to be had with this horse. If he can transfer his form to dirt from the cushion track he will be a menace to his east coast counter parts.

The Pletcher Trio

There are very few things that are certain in horse racing, one of which is that Pletcher will be represented in every race throughout the two days of the Breeders Cup program. He has operations set up in every region of the country so the odds of him not having a horse entered in each race are highly unlikely. The area where he has his premier group of runners stationed is the east or more specifically New York. He campaigned Quality Road exclusively on this side of the country along with Life at Ten and Uncle Mo, all top win candidates in their respective races.


Uncle Mo is short on racing experience with only two starts to his name, but long on reputation at this point with a dominating debut victory and an authoritative win last out in the Champagne. There are some issues that keep him from being a prohibitive favorite though, first of them being that both of his wins were over extremely fast surfaces. His win on Travers day was over a surface that was at least a second faster than usual and there were two races at six furlongs that finished up in 1:09 and change. The Champagne was contested after the Frizette, which had a final time of 1:35 3/5 and the Champagne was run in 1:34 2/5. The track variant for that day for the two routes were a 12, which is far lower than the 23 average that the meet has had so far. He will likely go off a short priced favorite in the Juvenile and his odds will probably be far lower than the acceptable value one can take on him.


Quality Road ran some scintillatingly fast races earlier this year with wins in the Donn and Metropolitan Handicaps, his last two efforts at Saratoga leave something to be desired. He set a mild pace in the Whitney Handicap and was narrowly defeated by the closer Blame and the Woodward he beat a weak field in a workout-like time of 1:50. They have had him training up to the Classic since his last start in early September and one has to wonder if the 1 ¼ miles is appropriate distance for this horse. His best races have come either at a one-turn mile or two turns going 1 1/8 miles. In fairness though his two tries at 10 furlongs were over sloppy surfaces chasing Summer Bird. Blame, Zenyatta, and Lookin At Lucky will likely lead the cavalry charge going into the stretch and a horse like Haynesfield on the lead will certainly make things harder for Quality Road in his attempt to win the Classic.


Life At Ten has been a gem of consistency for Pletcher with five wins out of six starts in and no off the board finishes this year. Her only loss of 2010 was the Personal Ensign where she dueled with Rachel Alexandra. She rebounded nicely from that defeat with a win in the Beldame though. The noticeable thing of her last race was her ability to stay a length or two off the leader while riding the rail and making a run at the top of the stretch after waiting to be called on for 7 furlongs. Her chief opponents in the Distaff are a pair of three year old fillies that will likely take a lot of support, Havre de Grace and Blind Luck. They have battled each other in three straight races, all of which had a combined winning margin of less than a length and will have to face older females for the first time. Out of the all the high profile Pletcher horses that will run Life At Ten may offer the best value from a win betting standpoint.

Sweeping Move~Play Of The Day

Belmont Park Race 9

Looks like a power play on #5 Frances Gardner. Love the maiden breaker and the " sweeping move". This is the type of gambit that wins flat mile turf races at Belmont. I have a hunch that she will love it here and the price should be right. Willing to forgive the stakes try and the clunker on the speed favoring Spa turf. Belmont will be much more friendly to her closing style.

Win #5 Frances Gardner


stats
26 8-2-3
strike rate 31%
cumulative return $83.40
$2 ROI $3.21
average winner $10.43

The Mother Of All Comebacks~Bold Hawk

Could this be for real? After a three year layoff Bold Hawk is nominated to the Knickerbocker next week. After scoring in the Hawthorne Derby (video at link)Bold Hawk has not been seen during the afternoon since finishing third in the 2007 Hollywood derby. This would be one of the more amazing stories in racing if this gelding made a successful comeback after a three year layoff.














This is a huge gelding with a long stride. He was poised to become a force in turf route division. He showed great promise as the three year old. Can he make it back after all this time?

Super Saturday Recap, Jockey Club Gold Cup

That first picture is of a group pick four ticket that Greg and I were involved in along with another racing fan, it was a hell of a score.

Haynesfield was in control from start to finish, he is a beast at Belmont and giving him an easy lead is akin to giving away the race. Haynesfield's resume at Belmont now includes the Empire Classic, Suburban Handicap, and Jockey Club Gold Cup. Blame was closing late, but the race was over at the 1/8 pole. Rail Trip took a ton of late money after opening up at 9/1 and showed nothing.

Super Saturday Recap, Turf Classic Invitational

Winchester is having a career year with his second high profile stakes win, this time at the expense of Paddy O'Prado. Winchester waited to make his move with less than a quarter mile left and Paddy O'Prado was already in full flight at that point. Paddy O'Prado may have moved too soon at the top of the stretch and had nothing left to fend off the late challenge of Winchester.

Super Saturday Recap, Beldame Stakes

Life At Ten laid off the pace set by Queen Martha and rolled by Unrivaled Belle to win easily. Unrivaled Belle runs her carousel streak of not passing a horse during a race to three straight. Persistently was bet down to 5/2 after her upset score over Rachel Alexandra and did very little other than passing tired foes to get up for third.