Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

30 December 2010

Neither of them deserve the honors




For those blissfully living underneath a rock since late October I am referring to the "great" horse of the year debate that has been going on since the finish of the Classic. During the Christmas break on both of the cable racing channels it was all they would talk about. It as is if any other racing has not occurred since this time and that was the last race of the year that anybody saw.

Neither camp should get horse of the year based on one fact, they cancel each other out. Their negatives and positives as far as racetrack efforts are equal. The negative on Zenyatta is her loss in the Classic, a race she was prepped up all year long for by way of winning weak grade one races. The positive is her record though, one loss the whole year and doing what has been told of her no matter the competition or task.

Blame also has one loss on the year, the race he ran in before the Classic. In early October Haynesfield threw a monkey wrench in Blame's unbeaten season in spectacular fashion. This loss has been a sticking point to Zenyatta's supporters, their reasoning is that if this horse is a beast he completes the year unbeaten. Zenyatta's loss kind of cancels out Blame's loss though, both had only one loss on the year. Blame has also been faulted on his competition, which kind of mirrors what detractors of the mare have been using for two years. So once again both debating points are rendered null and void for being common. Blame's supporters counter that he won the races he was entered no matter the competition, once again offsetting the positive point made by the opposing side. So as you can see we are at an impasse.

Which brings me to option C in this pointless war of words, vote outside the box. Yes, you can! Vote for Stormy's Majesty. He has brought joy and riches who have seen his talent and he will be racing next year so you can see him defend his hard earned title. Next year's class of handicap horses are shaking in their shoes at the sight of this hulking monster of horseflesh, mark my words! I implore the eclipse voters to use the slightly edited ballot below that was not crudely changed by way of liquid paper and send it in to the proper authorities. A vote for Stormy's Majesty is a vote for the future!



26 December 2010

2010 Year in Review: Win and you’re retired division




This year marked the second straight year the Derby favorite would miss the race due to a career threatening injury. Eskendereya was on top of everybody’s Derby prospect list after an authoritative win in the Fountain of Youth and fortified that assumption with a run away win at Aqueduct in the Wood Memorial. His injury was a sign of things to come, almost every winner of a major three year old stakes is now at stud.

This year’s Derby hero sure didn’t look like a Derby winner in his three starts following his May 1st triumph under the twin spires. After Eskendereya was knocked out with injury, the possibility of Pletcher going another year without that coveted victory in this signature race looked very likely. History repeated itself for the third time though when Borel rode the rail to victory on Super Saver who loved Churchill and the mud. The Preakness was another race that Pletcher wanted to add to his lengthy resume and Super Saver looked like he was in with a chance with three furlongs left only to weaken throughout the stretch to finish eighth. Pletcher gave Super Saver some time off to get ready for the Haskell, this was Lookin at Lucky’s coming out party though and the Pletcher star was caught for third by a resurgent First Dude. The Travers was four weeks later and the shine was completely off Super Saver at that point, he was not particularly well bet in this race and ran a distant tenth. On October 28th the Derby victor was retired not accomplishing much after his successful run on the first Saturday in May. Sea Hero and Giacomo accomplished more than Super Saver did and raced at four. Sea Hero won the Travers and raced at four in turf stakes races for a majority of that season. Giacomo won a grade two stakes at four at Del Mar and finished out his career a decent fourth in the Breeder’s Cup Classic. Super Saver retired with a minor injury that he could have returned from with some rest and relaxation.

Lookin at Lucky was the last of the major retirements and this happened after he finished fourth in the Classic. It appeared as if he would make a return to the races at four where he would have the chance to dominate a depleted division. Most years it would take three or four wins in major races to clinch divisional honors, this year it only took two. Lookin at Lucky won the Preakness in less than convincing fashion and came back in the Haskell to dominate a lot of the same foes he struggled to hold off at Baltimore. Baffert has had a good amount of high quality three-year-old runners and not a lot of them have made it back to the racetrack for a four-year-old season. The last one that comes to mind is Congaree who was a dominant force at Aqueduct, before that he had Real Quiet and Silver Charm come back to compete after their three-year-old season. Silver Charm won the San Fernando, Strub, Dubai World Cup, Kentucky Cup Classic, Goodwood, Clark, and San Pasqual, from ages four to five. The breeding market gets another son of Smart Strike to breed to now though, a field that includes Curlin, English Channel, Papa Clem, and Square Eddie.

What do Afleet Express and Line of David have in common? They both retired shortly after wins in important stakes races. Line of David shocked the betting public by winning the Arkansas Derby over Dublin and Super Saver, he was no where near the winner in the Derby and a stud deal was reached in June. Afleet Express won the Travers and was retired on November 10th, ten days before the announcement of Lookin at Lucky’s retirement.

Drosselmeyer is back in training after an injury that was detected after his victory in the Belmont Stakes. Probably the only reasons he is not standing at stud are that the market for breeding to Belmont winners is not there and his stable mate Super Saver is in the breeding shed for 2011. Drosselmeyer ran in a Belmont that did not feature a winner of either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness. The last time this happened was 2000 when Commendable wired the Belmont field. Commendable did not win a race after his Belmont score. The only difference is there is no Albert the Great or Tiznow running next year like Commendable had in his class.

Santa Anita Boycott Will be a Failure




These price conscious players are like Bigfoot or the Loch Ness monster; often spoken about but never seen. The group that is advocating a boycott of Santa Anita is unfortunately not going to make a dent in Santa Anita's business. The small uptick in action generated by a takeout reduction can never account for the loss in revenue generated by the takeout reduction itself.

Before you go off and launch into ad hominem mode I am only speaking from experience; with data collected the hard way. There was a time when I used to play Sam Houston solely for the low takeout (12%) pick 3. If some working class guy in New York is spending his evenings working over Sam Houston there must of been many more players like me. I was shocked to see the trifecta pools (25% takeout) at Sam Houston were 2 to 3 times bigger than the pick 3. The Sam Houston pick 3 was a great value; yet it was completely ignored by the public. The public preferred the fast action of the trifecta even if the cost was over 100% more. This was not the only failure of low takeout wagers offered by racetracks to entice players to look at their tracks. The low takeout pick 4 at Ellis was failure. The low takeout offered at Laurel last year was unfortunatly a failure too. This boycott of Santa Anita is destined to be an inadequate effort.


The vast majority of horseplayers are expressing a compulsive vice when they visit the windows; tracks make money by feeding this vice. There is no reason for track management keep hitting their heads against the wall expecting a different result chasing a nonexistent demographic of price conscious players. The demographic is too small to matter. If you want to reach the price conscious crowd publish some coupons in the Sunday paper. Tracks make money by having a large horse population and carding big fields.

23 December 2010

2010 Year In Review: King of the tough beats




Zito has had more tough beats in big events this year than anyone else I can think of in the last ten years. In almost all of the marquee three-year-old events he had horses garner place or show in excruciating fashion. His year started out well enough; once again he had a shed row loaded with newly minted Derby prospects, including a privately purchased Jackson Bend. Jackson Bend was one of the hot Derby prospects up until February when he had his doors blown off by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth. Ice Box took over Jackson’s spot as the top Zito prospect with a fast closing victory in the Florida Derby in March.

The Kentucky Derby is not a race known for an abundance of great trips. Ice Box finished second, yet was considered by many to have run the best race that day due to the fact he had to mount two bids with 3/8 of a mile left to run after getting shut off the first time. The usually consistent Jackson Bend threw in a clunker in the Derby finishing well off the board with the only viable excuse being the sloppy surface. A week later at Belmont it looked like Zito was loaded for the Belmont Stakes when Fly Down blew away the opposition in the Dwyer that included Drosselmeyer, a highly touted Mott trainee.

Back in 1996 Zito had Louis Quatorze turn a poor Derby run into a Preakness victory, no such luck this year. Jackson Bend back after his non effort in the Derby looked like he was going to win during a couple of points in the stretch run just to come up short finishing third. Lookin at Lucky repelled Jackson Bend and First Dude made a comeback to capture second after setting the pace. Jackson Bend has had three starts since this race versus competition of grade three horses or less and has finished fourth, fifth, and sixth in those efforts.

The Belmont looked like Zito was going to get a win in the classics, he had the top two contenders lining up for this race. Ice Box skipped the second leg of the Triple Crown specifically for this race and Fly Down was lights out in his prep for the longest of the three races of the series. Ice Box never looked comfortable finishing eighth and Fly Down finished second less than a length by the same horse he beat in the Dwyer, Drosselmeyer. Mike Smith was on the winner as well adding a little more salt to the wound, Smith rode Jackson Bend in the first two legs of the triple crown.

The last big event for the three-year-olds before the weight for age races in the fall is the Travers. Zito came into this race with three entries, Ice Box, Fly Down, and Miner’s Reserve. Miner’s Reserve avoided the spring classics and ran well in allowance races leading up to the Jim Dandy, a prep for the Travers. Unfortunately for Miner’s Reserve he ran into a horse that also missed the Triple Crown races and was highly touted before missing the big races, A Little Warm. Miner’s Reserve set the pace and could not hold off the charge of A Little Warm. Much like the Jim Dandy in the Travers Miner’s Reserve got out to an early advantage and looked like he had a chance to pull a major upset as they turned into the stretch. He gave way inside the 3/16 pole and was passed by Afleet Express and Fly Down. In one of the tighter photo finishes in the history of the Travers Afleet Express came out the victor, Zito lost another close one. Afleet Express won the Pegasus in June defeating Jackson Bend in an upset.

Things looked like they were going to turn around in the fall when Morning Line won the $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby on September 25 defeating a quality field that included First Dude and A Little Warm. The saying things get better before they get worse clearly did not apply here though. The Breeder’s Cup Dirt Mile had some of the fastest fractions one will see for a flat mile and Morning Line was on the pace that went in 22.41, 44.94, and 1:09.44. He dueled Hurricane Ike, Vineyard Haven, and Tizway into defeat and had a clear advantage going into the last eighth of a mile. The Jerry Hollendorfer trained Dakota Phone was the biggest beneficiary of the rapid pace up front and picked off horses from the 3/4 pole to the stretch, moving from tenth up to third, and forcing a photo finish. If you read this far, it is no surprise who won and who lost the photo. Zito had a horse in the Classic though, unfortunately this Classic field had to be one of the toughest fields assembled in the 27-year history of this event. Fly Down, a multiple time tough beat made his march to the lead around the same time Zenyatta was kicking it into high gear, unfortunately he did not have the same acceleration as the champion mare. Fly Down finished third, three and a half lengths behind one of the greater stretch runs ever seen in this sport.

As it was said at the top, Zito has had a treasure trove of mind numbing defeats, I know regulars at Belmont and Aqueduct that don’t have this many tough beat stories as Zito has compiled this year. That being said, Fly Down looks like one of the top 4-year-old prospects along with Morning Line due to all the retirements of the big names in the 3-year-old and the handicap division. It may not take much to be dominant force in the older male division either. As far as silver linings go, that is not a bad one to have.

Would you look at that





They are showing dark day simulcasting on the ghost of the OTB channel, this is faster progress than expected with regards to New York racing and simulcasting.

22 December 2010

NYRA Video Streaming Approved in New York




After four years the state finally approved streaming video. This was along drawn out battle that lasted longer than WWI. The reason for the delayed approval was the state protecting OTB's interest. The idea from Albany is that if New Yorkers can't watch NYRA at home they will be compelled to OTB parlors or watch the OTB channel. For some this was ridiculous as not every county in New York had an OTB or an OTB channel. These people were caught in the crossing fore between OTB and reason and ended up with access to only TVG if they were lucky to have satellite TV. This is the principle of might is right. OTB had the might in NY state and dictated the terms.

We sent letters three years ago to no avail, the only action or elected officals took was accepting kickbacks for the Aqueduct casino. Four years of no racing video and no real coverage in the press. Too bad it wasn't the Yankers or NFL, if the would have been front page news if video was blocked of those sports. It took the crisis shut down of NYCOTB to finally stream video in New York. Rushed, desperate and reactionary are adjectives that describe how how business is done in New York. With this odyssey under the bridge I look forward to booting up NYRA rewards and watching streaming video next time I play Aqueduct.

16 December 2010

The week long nightmare is over




No need to change the primary start-up channel from 71 to something else anymore. The in-home simulcast feed made a triumphant return today and there is talk about NYRA opening wagering teletheaters as a replacement to the shuttered NYC OTB locations.


Off track betting won't die without a fight though, it is still on the Time Warner Cable listings. Channel 71 will probably be listed as OTB on NYC TV long after the bankruptcy proceedings conclude.


Update, after Aqueduct's live program the blue screen of doom reappeared. Unfortunately, there is no after hours simulcast shown after the conclusion of racing from Aqueduct, hopefully they work towards rectifying this. Some live racing in the living room is better than none though.


14 December 2010

NY Times is a Source of Disinformation




As chief journalistic representative of a culture that supposedly has a love of diversity- the NY Times does a great job of proving otherwise. While the talking class drones on about a love of diversity- the esoteric truth is that this culture from top to bottom is racing towards homogeneity. The NY Times racing coverage affirms this truth. Niche sports like racing doesn't have any room in New York according to the Times "It is hard to shake a feeling that Aqueduct’s precious 192 acres in South Ozone Park, Queens, might be put to better use, perhaps for parks or for reasonably priced housing, which goodness knows the city sorely needs. " When the Times and the cultural masters are done manipulating opinions this world will be a one trick pony- horse racing will not be providing the pony.

While most can agree with that opinion that aqueduct is not a venue enjoyed by all the Times really goes off the rails when it becomes a medium for disinformation. "With the failed bookie operation known as the New York City Off-Track Betting Corporation forced to shut its doors, the numbers of horse players trooping to Aqueduct racetrack have swelled." NYCOTB was never a bookie operation, it was a parimutuel outlet- this is a huge difference in complexity and the nature of the operation.

If the New York Times is going to send a reporter to Aqueduct-- shouldn't he be informed? Why report these facts while taking them totally and completely out of context. OTB operated as a political patronage mill and was filled with inefficiency and mismanagement. OTB often acted against ( banning streaming in-home video for example) the best interest of the product. It was the fact that government corruption and ineptitude killed OTB; not the lack of appeal from the racing product. This is not clear in the piece as shows how reporting misinforms rather that informs.

While I have to agree that Aqueduct certainly is not an ascetically appealing new construction palace- I contend that Aqueduct holds a different type of charm. Certainly in this world there are diverse experiences and tastes- especially in New York. Aqueduct is a remnant of old working class New York- like an old pair of jeans that are the most comfortable, rugged and familiar article of clothes in your wardrobe. Everything in the wardrobe can not be a new suit. Must we steamroll/cleanse everything in this culture for the sake of homogeneity? Do we really need to demolish Aqueduct to make way for yet another Wal-Mart or Starbucks or Wal-Mart or Starbucks? Do we need to raid the taxpayers for billions to construct new stadiums -three here in the NYC area just the last two years- so the masses can consume more ball games and only ball games. Does every sport have to be a TV show masquerading as a team sport? If it doesn't fit the narrow mold of Mr. Haberman's world it must be demolished. This is the cultural homogeneity that the NY times silently yet ubiquitously promotes. The worldview is narrow and it is the cultural equivalent of rainforest slash and burn farming. The old is neglected and new turf is constantly slashed and burned to provide the fresh newly built experience that is requisite for "bucolic retreats"

Disinformation and cultural provincialism is not enough to drive the point home for the Times. They have to supplement this with the old stereotype. This is the old "punter as loser" stereotype that constantly appears in the press and by extension in the culture at large. The Times is very careful not stereotype most ethnic groups and certainly does not stereotype ballgame fans as braindead TV watching dolts. Why does the horseplayer always have to be stereotyped as a loser over and over.
I can’t look at horses anymore — there’s no fun,” said Michael Partridge, 69. He regularly added money to his account, but never withdrew. “I got the pleasure of it,” he said. “To handicap horses every night.”
More lackadaisical journalism from the times. There are winners at handicapping and some very sharp handicappers. This can not be read about in the New York Times. For them it is just easier to stereotype the entire group as losers and idiots. I guess if the goal is to demolish racing and get rid of all horse racing from the sports pages it is intellectually convenient to paint them with a broad brush as losers. This way when they are removed from the landscape the cultural guilt will be minimized.


This quote really highlights the poor understanding Mr. Haberman has of twentieth first century parimutuel operations:

The New York Racing Association, which operates the Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga tracks, has begun busing displaced OTB devotees to South Ozone Park. But even with higher attendance figures as a result, the amount bet at the track — the handle, in racing parlance — remains a small fraction of the overall wagering.

On Saturday, for example, the handle from all betting sources for races run at Aqueduct was nearly $8.8 million. At the track itself, in relatively mild weather, the handle came to just over $1 million. That ratio of about nine to one was not significantly different from that of a comparable Saturday last December.

Are ballgames a failure because millions watch on TV with only a few thousand in the stands? Are women abandoning shopping as a source of amusement because the business has migrated to on-line while brick and mortar flounders? The fact that most wagers are being placed on-line or at distant locations is a sign of progress. Mr. Haberman completely misses this point in his piece. Does he not know about simulcasting? As most of us know this gives racing the ability to reach almost everyone in the country. Now snowbound fans in Duluth Minnesota can play Aqueduct from their couch or fans in Chicago can bet Aqueduct from their Hawthorne racecourse. This is progress and not a sign of a game in crisis. Haberman stands this fact on its head and uses it to make the point that horseplayers have found "other ways to throw away their money". Anyone who does not understand this elementary fact should not be an information source- conversely this is the mark of a source of disinformation.