Kentucky Derby Failure Five, Round Two

The first edition of the failure five saw two of the five horses mentioned drop off the pathway, Boys at Toscanova and Tapizar. Tapizar ran poorly in the Bob Lewis Stakes and an injury was found shortly after the race, Boys at Toscanova was not training well and was removed from consideration due to this. In light of this, it is time to update the list.

1. Uncle Mo

The Derby Futures morning line favorite among the entries listed and there is not much to report on this one. Gulfstream Park wrote a race up around the same time as the Tampa Bay Derby in hopes of luring this horse away from Tampa Bay Downs. I’m sure this glorified allowance race will not fill though.

2. To Honor and Serve

The three-year-old debut of this horse will be this Saturday in the Fountain of Youth Stakes; this race produced Eskendereya last year. In related news, Belmont Stakes ticket applications are being accepted now. The only reason this is relative is the fact that for a horse to win the Triple Crown he has to have experience over the Belmont oval, To Honor and Serve has that going for him and the connections go a long way as well. With that being said he will probably either miss the Derby completely or be a tough luck loser in the first leg and run the table in the last two legs. That seems to be the way things go in this sport.

3. Dialed In

There seems to be a recurring theme with this group of three-year-olds, it is that they don’t race much. The top two are still working out and this one will skip a showdown with To Honor and Serve to train up to the Florida Derby. It should be noted that this horse was the co-second choice on the morning line with To Honor and Serve in the futures pool with only two starts to his name. This horse is set up to fall short with this type of schedule, if everything goes according to plan he would make it to the Derby with only three starts and a running style that requires a perfect trip in order to win. Curlin was one of the better horses to compete in the last twenty or so years and he could not pull off a Derby victory with a light schedule leading up to the race, how could this horse be any different?

4. Mucho Macho Man

An old angle that has worked almost every winter and spring with the three-year-olds has been that if a trainer ships a horse out of their home base, the horse will be a force to be reckoned with. It struck again this weekend when Mucho Macho Man shipped to Fair Grounds and beat a wide-open field in the Risen Star. Chances are this horse will train in Florida and race again in the Louisiana Derby. Using Fair Grounds as a springboard to the Kentucky Derby has not been a successful route. The last horse to win the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby was Grindstone back in 1996.

5. The Factor

One California speedball gets knocked out of the frame only to get replaced by another. Baffert has not stated that he is aiming this one for the big dance, but seeing how it is a three-year-old trained by Baffert it is a safe bet he will take a shot at this with a race going two turns in the near future. Two races Baffert cited the Sunland Derby or the Rebel Stakes as possible next starts.

Derby Winner?

This is an auspicious first time start. The first sub 109 six furlong race since 2005 at Fairgrounds. This one has the movement to be a great one. Combine they with top connections and graded stakes is just a matter of time. With today's training style I don't think the triple crown is out of the question for Bind. Uncle Mo better be on his game when he tangles with this one.

Trip To Aqueduct (Dresden Downs)

In post OTB New York City NYRA is providing free bus service from former OTB locations to the venerable Big-A. On the warmest Saturday in ages -downright balmy at 35F- I decided to take advantage of NYRA's generosity and use the free bus from midtown Manhattan to the Big-A.

This is a bus like no other; it is like someone returned from a time warp and dragged a busload of working class NY residents from 1982 with them. In a city increasingly becoming a Bauhaus playground for the wheel-heeled this crowd was a quite the contrast from the typical mid-town Manhattan crowd. Almost all on-board were working class men in their 50s to 80s. On the way back one of them was so tanked he fell over on the way to his seat. Perhaps it is not a coincidence that this working class element has slowly been disappeared from NYC and now one of their favorite haunts has also been shuttered.

Aqueduct itself looks like a post WWII site in Dresden after absorbing the wrath of the Allied war machine. Conducting a sporting event at a venue in this state of disrepair is a surreal experience. The entire third floor grandstand and apron is shuttered while festooned with a large lot of construction/demolition debris. Would ball sports play in a stadium that looks like this? Our observations make it obvious that the casino construction is far from ready; the slot playing blue-hairs are going to have to wait much longer for their VLTs.

A few pics from the trip:

Scenes from Belmont

Last week Greg went down south to Gulfstream (lucky) and I trekked out to the Belmont simulcast. Mostly for two reasons, the first was you can only go to Aqueduct so many times in a month before the charm wears off (for other people it is one trip in a lifetime) and curiosity, Belmont's clubhouse was opened to take up the slack that the NYC OTB left behind. Apparently the heating for big sandy's clubhouse wasn't quite up to snuff so NYRA had to bring in some kerosene heaters to keep the betttors warm and cozy.



Ever wonder what they do with the Secretariat statue in the paddock during the winter? Wonder no more, much like a museum exhibit it is boxed up and preserved when not on display for the public.


It must be a massive operation to get the odds board ready for winter inactivity as evidenced below.



Belmont's grandstand is big, cold, and empty during the winter. Every once in a while a politician or newspaper editorial raises the point that Aqueduct's property should be sold to developers and Belmont be made into a primary racing center for the year in New York. Just from touring the closed off grandstand this would not be wise. The heating issue is the primary reason, the surface change over to a winterized surface or building an inner dirt surface inside the turf course is another issue, and the track maintenance of this massive oval during the brutal winter months would probably be much more than what they are spending at Aqueduct right now.

Kentucky Derby Failure Five

Almost every racing website has a columnist or two that ranks the Derby hopefuls leading up to the event. This is our attempt to capitalize on the trend not by saying the ranked horses are the best of the group, but by saying they will somehow defect out of the Kentucky Derby or fall short of expectations.

1. Uncle Mo

The champion juvenile and winter book favorite for the big race. Pletcher is waiting until March to start this one in the Tampa Bay Derby, the last two year old champ to do that was War Pass. There are other parallels with War Pass and Uncle Mo as well, both completed the Champagne-Juvenile sweep and both seem to have the same career trajectory. War Pass was lightly raced at two with only four starts on his record and Uncle Mo went to post three times last year. More good news for Uncle Mo’s backers too, the last three Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners did not make it to the Derby.

2. To Honor and Serve

The Remsen to Kentucky path has not been one of success since Thunder Gulch pulled off the trick in 1994. Old Fashioned, Rockport Harbor, and Buddy’s Saint went into their three year old campaigns as hot horses for the Derby only to be sidelined before the main event took place. The runner-up in the Remsen, Mucho Macho Man returned to service in the Holy Bull only to gets his doors blown off by Dialed In as well.

3. Boys At Tosconova

This horse was intended to make his debut this weekend in the Holy Bull, but that was called off because Dutrow did not like how his horse looked going into the race. Probably a wise move on the part of Dutrow, not a good sign for a three year old early in the season though. The pedigree on this one seems to be a bit of a wash, Officer is the sire which probably means that nine furlongs is his limit and Coronado’s Quest is on the dam’s side of the pedigree, which is a decent stamina influence. This horse is a question mark with four legs. Also of note on this horse:


At Horse Racing Nation they are advertising Uncle Mo merchandise on the page of Boys At Toscanova, not a lot of respect being doled out for this horse.

4. Dialed In

A Kentucky Derby prep season without Zito is something that doesn’t happen often. His whole stable is centered on having horses entered in the three year old classics and when that doesn’t happen his year is kind of shot. Had fun losing money on Ice Box in the Derby and Belmont last year? Well this is your chance to get more of the same punishment, this horse has the same type of running style as Ice Box and got a win earlier in the season at Gulfstream than Ice Box did. Andrew Beyer also penned that if this horse won the Holy Bull that it would make the prep season much more interesting. Beyer was right on something, that may be a sign of the apocalypse.

5. Tapizar

Not only included here to defeat all claims of having an east coast bias, but also because this is the first three year old in a long time that I think may turn into something special. Twice now he has outrun other stakes horses on final time, on November 27 his maiden victory was faster than the two mile and a sixteenth stakes races that took place and his win last out was faster than a stakes race for four year olds on the same day.

So you may be asking me why is he on a list filled with horses that you think may be flops and fizzle out of the picture for the Kentucky Derby? Because the last horse I had this type of notion on was Repent, he got injured after finishing second to War Emblem in the 2002 Illinois Derby and lost subsequent starts in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Gulfstream Trip Report

Finally had enough of 7.5K claimers running next to 7.5 foot tall snow berms in 7.5 degrees. The antidote to cold weather and cheap racing is a trip to 75 degree Gulfstream Park. The weather was much warmer, the horses much classier and there is no snow. However Gulfstream is not a regular track; it is cut from an entirely new cloth. It really is cut from many clothes. It is like a dozen market research analysts got together and combined the best of Las Vegas, the highlights of sunbelt shopping malls with a modern horse racing venue. What we have is a venue that tries to be all things to all people. Sometimes it works other times it is has a confused identity.

From Power Cap

From Power Cap

This has been mentioned umpteen times in other reviews of Gulstream but I will have to say it again. The grandstand is tiny. Like Gary Coleman tiny. There are only three rows of seats. Other areas of the track are also sized down. It seems the designers studied venues like Belmont "big empty" Park and judged that reduced on-track attendance calls for a new venue. Gulfstream is like a big house with many small rooms. The grandstand is smaller along with the stretch area and the simulcast areas. All of this partitioning makes the place seems crowded and vibrant; even on Friday the rail was shoulder to shoulder when the on-track crowd was small.

From Power Cap

The walking ring is clearly meant to be the focal point for the entire facility. It is a beautiful space surrounding a fountain that was clearly inspired by the Bellagio casino Las Vegas. The walking ring is first thing most people will see when they enter the racetrack area. This is not a typical racetrack and Gulfstream throws a curveball here. The saddling paddock is inside the building in a long tunnel away from the crowd. For the first ten minutes of the paddock time the horses are away from the crowd. Someone out there somewhere must hate this but it seemed reasonable. Once the field is saddled they make their appearance to the crowd.

From Power Cap

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One nice thing about the walking ring is that it is surrounded by a balcony on the second and third floors affording a great view of the horses. However seating is limited. Adjacent to the walking ring is the "Gulfstream Village" mall. Included are upscale typical American mall stores and restaurants. About a third of the stores are still vacant. However I enjoyed dinner at the "Yard House" restaurant on Friday night and it was very crowded even at 11Pm.

From Power Cap

The Mig interviews John Velasquez after winning the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf.

From Power Cap

There is still room for improvement on the race track end. The SAM machines are low end AMTOTE machines which are not intuitive like the United Tote machines in New York. The AMTOTE machine lack information like horse names, jockeys and trainers. The worst part is that these AMTOTE machines do not list scratched horses in multi-race wagers. So if you select a scratched horses in the 4th leg of your pick 6 the tote machine simply rejects your wager without any advice on which horses were scratched in which race. To make matters worse many machines were placed in the sun which rendered them completely useless due to glare. Seems like a manager needs to make sweep of this area and correct glare issues and replace the antiquated AMTOTE machines with something modern and user friendly. Most of these machines are used by seniors -even I struggled- they need something simple and intuitive like the machines NYRA uses. Please put together a seating task force and get more seats in this place.

From Power Cap

While the views from the walking were great -this is a reason why I took so many picks of the walking ring- there really was not any way for me to watch the races live. The view from the stretch rail was terrible; once again there was nowhere to sit. It seems like most players at Gulfstream opt for one of two Las Vegas racebook style simulcast rooms. While these simulcast rooms were as nice as any room in Las Vegas -they had hundreds of TVs- the point of going to Gulfstream is to be outside in the sun and not cooped up in a room.

From Power Cap

One of two simulcast rooms where every race anywhere in the world is available for wagering.

From Power Cap

Bellagio inspired fountain in the walking ring comes alive after the races are over with lights and a varied water spray routine.

From Power Cap

Another shot of the walking ring from the ground floor.

From Power Cap

The set where Jessica Pacheco and Ron Niccoletti film the paddock show between races. Perhaps the two best paddock analysts in the game.

From Power Cap

Huge toteboard provides information but blocks the view of the horses on the backstretch.

From Power Cap

The rail along the homestretch is packed with fans on Friday but once again nowhere to sit.

From Power Cap

From Power Cap

Horses break from the gate in the sunshine millions classic.

From Power Cap

Horses thunder down the lane during the closing stages of the Sunshine Millions Classic won by 25-1 longshot Tackleberry.

From Power Cap

It looks like Kent Desormeaux rented a banner plane and had it fly above Gulfstream with this message "Honored to ride- Kent." Is there an innuendo around the track that Kent has too big an ego to care about riding anything less than a graded race? Why would he have to rent an airplane to tell everyone at the track that he is honored to ride? Seems like renting an airplane to tell people you are a humble hard worker is counter-intuitive and an expression of your inflated self worth.

From Power Cap

In the end Gulfstream is a venue that tries hard to be many things to many people. Perhaps too many market research analysts hand their hands in on the recipe and failed to give Gulfstream a clear identity as the venue is more like a hodgepodge of track/mall/casino than village. Still, there are enduring good points. The weather is great, the facility is clean, modern and the food is outstanding; especially for a racetrack. Considering the positives Gulfstream is worth a visit and a fine refuge from the 7.5 foot snow berms and 7.5 claimers.

Tale of the Tape, Saratoga vs. Aqueduct

Note: This format has been ripped off and abused more often than any other form of writing out there. Time to pile on to a stale format!

These two tracks are far apart on the scales of amenities, aesthetics, and many other forms of judging a racing facility. Not to mention that Saratoga is only open for about forty days out of the year compared to the six months that Aqueduct is open. Aqueduct has a less than stellar reputation and Saratoga is put on scale with Wrigley Field and Lambeau Field in terms of “sports cathedrals”. Enough with the hyperbole though, it is time to get down to the brass tax.

Thoroughbred legends with stakes races named after them
Saratoga: Fourstardave
Aqueduct: Evening Attire
Advantage: Push, both are great. Although a conversation involving the two is a refresher from the two horses recently discussed for horse of the year.


Belmont Stakes winners who raced at the respective racetracks following their triumphs
Saratoga: Almost every horse that has won this race in the last 20 years
Aqueduct: Jazil
Advantage: Saratoga, anytime you have Jazil as a trump card in a debate it is an automatic loss.

Marquee Event
Saratoga: Travers Stakes
Aqueduct: Wood Memorial (spring), Cigar Mile (fall)
Advantage: Saratoga, the Travers seems to produce a close finish almost every year. The winner of the Wood usually blows the field out and the Cigar Mile has that Breeders Cup hangover feel.

Crowd size after the feature race
Aqueduct: Still there waiting for the get out race
Saratoga: Nonexistent
Advantage: Aqueduct; say what you will about patrons who attend the racing at Aqueduct, but they are a dedicated bunch.

Loaded racing cards
Aqueduct: Thanksgiving weekend, Gotham stakes day, and Wood Memorial day.
Saratoga: Any given racing card
Advantage: Saratoga, although with the extended meets over the last few years the racing quality has been watered down a bit.

Surrounding neighbors
Aqueduct: Chop shops, dive bars, KFC knockoffs, and an airport
Saratoga: The Whitneys and the Racing Hall of Fame
Advantage: Aqueduct, shockingly enough. Above the chop shops there is an old LIRR right of way that connected Rockaway to Queens Boulevard.

Usual patrons
Aqueduct: Taxi cab drivers, construction workers, and trainers who grind out winners at 8% on a yearly basis
Saratoga: Millionaires well to do trainers, and tourists
Advantage: Aqueduct, their crowd is more entertaining.

Getting to the place from the greater NY metropolitan area
Aqueduct: At the most, hour and a half to two hours by car.
Saratoga: Usually two and a half to three hours depending on your location.
Advantage: Aqueduct, not to mention that NYC transit also is conveniently near by with bus and subway service.

Final Score
4-3 Aqueduct, with a big closing kick. Saratoga has its charms, but it wears off fast with peak hotel rates for that area, travel time, and grinding out tough cards throughout the meet. I’m sure I’ll catch flak for posting this, oh well.

NYRA Rewards video feed update

Live video is now available for tracks other than the Big A, the cogs of progress are moving forward. The next logical step for the wagering platform is to pick up the feeds from the premiere tracks such as Gulfstream and Santa Anita.