Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

27 April 2011

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Archarcharch

First Impression: He put in a good run to capture a pivotal race leading up to the Derby.

The case for this horse winning the Derby: It looks like the Derby has a good amount of speed that is going to go in here, this one has shown an ability to lay off the lead and make a late bid past some tiring front runners. He has a pair of stakes wins this year, which was not done by many up to this point.

The case against: The saying, “If you missed the wedding, don’t show up for the funeral” could very well apply to this one. His two stakes wins were high-octane payouts and off a high profile win he will likely attract a bit of support.

Since Smarty Jones won the Arkansas Derby back in 2004, this race has been a “hot race” for Derby or high profile stakes winners. Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, and Super Saver used this race for bigger and better things. Derby prep races are a fickle bunch. The Wood Memorial went nearly two decades from Pleasant Colony to Fusaichi Pegasus with horses unsuccessfully using this race to launch their run at the roses.

Location of the last prep races as a handicapping angle is at best a trivial angle, more importantly it is the extenuating circumstances surrounding the last race. Last year Super Saver ran on a conveyer belt surface and it toughened him up for his Derby run. In 2008 Big Brown circled a field from post 12 at Gulfstream en route to Louisville. The point being it is not where they race, it is how much they get out of the effort. With that being said, this son of Arch has shown a dimension that gives him an edge over his front running competition.

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