Finally Contessa Gets It Right

This race is the play of the day. Preachintothedevil finally cuts back to a dirt sprint. His biggest career win was in a dirt sprint. His highest career beyer fig was in a dirt sprint. His dam was the famous Grade I winning dirt sprinter Acey Deucey. So what does Contessa do with this crack sprinter? He runs him in grass routes, dirt routes, poly routes , turf sprints- with the way this guy has been handled I am surprised Contessa-San didn't enter him in a steeplechase. Finally he is entered in the right kind of race and he should give a true account of his skills today.

W #8 Preachintothedevil

ps. This is my first post after an extended hiatus from the game.

They start with an advantage

It’s the end of October and that means two things. The first is that all of the important grade one races are over until the fourth of November and it is now time for the state breeding programs to shine. This upcoming Saturday is New York Showcase day and next week California bred runners take the spotlight. Last week Delaware and Thistledown showed off the best of their breeding programs from their states.

The fact of the matter is that while a lot of the state bred races from any track is usually impossible to scope at times, they serve a purpose of bringing in handle and filling the daily racing cards. Without the NY bred maiden special weight or first level allowance races that usually populate the weekday cards, NYRA would likely have to cutback racing dates due to the lack of races being filled. Not to go as far as using the term “necessary evil”, but these races usually serve a purpose on a daily basis.

In the instance of the showcase day cards, they usually are loaded cards with some decent fields. Not to mention the occasional horse on the rise that pop up once in a while. Funny Cide won the 2002 Sleepy Hollow and Haynesfield won the 2009 Empire Classic, the year after their victories were multiple graded stakes winners.

The state bred showcase days serve as a useful part of the racing landscape at this time of the year when the all stars of the sport converge on location, leaving the feeder tracks with little pull in the way of attention towards their racing product. The restricted state bred stakes races fill what would be a dead card with some interesting match-ups and provide some cover to what otherwise would be referred to as a barren part of the racing calendar.

Get to know a BC prospect: The Southern California Roundup

Admittedly this site does not cover a lot of the news or horses that run on the opposite coast. It must be the three-hour time difference, general malaise towards the product offered at the three principal tracks, the two synthetic surfaces that are in place, the high takeout rates, or some combination of the four. Whatever the case may be, they do produce some decent runners for the big day much like the other major circuits do. A scouting report on the some of the big players coming to Louisville is in order.

Game On Dude

He is listed at 15/1 in the recent Breeders’ Cup write up for the Daily Racing Form. Seems a bit high even for a rough sketch on the contenders they list. Awesome Gem is the longest shot listed immediately after the Dude at 20/1. This one has been the hard trying type all year long and seems to favor dirt surfaces with two major wins over the Santa Anita surface. His early speed always puts him in contention and he could hang around for the finish if unattended and treated as cheap speed.

The Factor

It’s been an up and down year for this highly touted Baffert runner, after winning two straight grade two races he was defeated in the Arkansas Derby and laid up until the Pat O’Brien stakes where he defeated Smiling Tiger with weight concessions. The Ancient Title was a flat effort where he finished off the board causing high rolling show bettors to look for tall buildings and bridges. He is a Jekyll and Hyde horse if there ever was one, which one will show up on the first Saturday of November is anyone’s guess. Buyers beware.

Dubawi Heights

If Stacelita is at the top of the older filly grass ranks for the U.S. then this one is not far behind. They were one-two in their only meeting on a neutral site at Arlington Park and those two went on to win their next starts in easy fashion. The 11 furlongs of the distaff turf race will be a question mark for this one though as it will be her first trip going three turns and an eighth of a mile longer than she has ever gone in her career. Her rival Stacelita has already done the trip against colts in the United Nations back in July with a respectable third to show for it.

Get to know a BC prospect: Jackson Bend

Likely race he will be entered in: Dirt Mile

Reports about the demise of his racing career have been greatly exaggerated. After brawling with the apex of his class throughout his three-year-old season and showing four in the money finishes out of eight starts with no wins it looked like he was burnt out. After a November to March freshening he had four starts down in Florida with the same results as his 2010 season. Then there was a sudden revival when he hit the track at Saratoga, two straight wins in convincing fashion.

Something broke him out of the malaise of his 0-12 skid that lasted from 2010 to 2011. Was it the fresh country air of Saratoga, the beautiful women who attend the races up there, the mineral rich spring water, or maybe a combination of any of these factors? No, it was the fact that he got back to what brought him to the dance. Sprint races got him noticed as a juvenile down at Calder and eventually led to the high profile acquisition by Robert LaPenta. In his most recent at Belmont, he had Uncle Mo by the collar at the top of the stretch before the big horse turned on the afterburners. The thought process now among the connections is that if he can run 7/8 of mile, he can run the flat mile, heck he almost circled a talented colt at the mile distance.

The Breeders Cup Sprint is a better option. The pace is usually hot enough for a closer like Jackson Bend to make a sustained bid and as mediocre as the middle distance dirt runners, the sprint division is doing its part in keeping pace in this category. The cutback from a mile to six furlongs is not without foundation either, Silver Train pulled off the feat back in 2005 by running in the mile Jerome Stakes and winning the Sprint later on. Some closers at the 7/8 distance look like they can get the extra 660 feet because of the explosive kick they have shown at the shorter distance. A good percentage of the time that is due to the pace at seven furlongs being hot and the horse getting on a roll at the right moment. The mile can be trickier; sometimes the pace does not develop and this leaves the closers behind the eight ball.

Jackson Bend is a better fit for the sprint based on the fact he has shown very little in the way of winning past the sprint distances. If he does go in the mile he will be an overbet option in a large field, not the type of preposition any gambler should make. If he goes in the Sprint he will one of a plethora of viable options to take down the jackpot and you may get a price on him. If Zito is a reader of this site then here is a bit of free advice, RUN JACKSON BEND IN THE SPRINT.

He has Mo-mentum

Super Saturday was a formful day where the betting favorite took down four out of the six stakes races. Speed seemed best on the muddy dirt surface where most of the winners were either close to or on the the lead in the early stages.

Stacelita continued her superiority over her own gender on the turf. She will likely be a very well bet favorite for the Filly and Mare Turf off of this effort. How good is this filly? Dubawi Heights, the filly who ran second to Stacelita in the Beverly D. won the Yellow Ribbon a couple of hours later.

Cape Blanco has been racking up the frequent flier miles lately and Dean's Kitten almost took advantage of this. Dean's Kitten ran as a good a race as any of the other winners from today's card. The cross continental trips may be taking a toll Cape Blanco and if he goes in the BC Turf he could be a good play against.

Giant Ryan got to the front during the early stages and did not look back. As the old advertisement for the NY breds goes, "They start with an advantage.".

Uncle Mo loves Belmont and rolls into the Breeders' Cup with this zippy win. The connections of Uncle Mo are toying with the idea of going to the Classic if he did well in this race. It seems like a bad idea, Fusaichi Pegasus tried to the mile stretch out to the classic with no success and Mo seems to thrive at the one turn mile. He could be the first horse to win two different BC races either way, might as well try it in a spot he does well in.

Jackson Bend made a nice run at the winner at the top of the stretch, he has matured into a decent long sprinter. The spot I would run him in off of this race is the BC Sprint, the Dirt Mile may be an 1/8 beyond his best distance and he has not attempted the six furlong distance in quite a while. It may be worth a shot to run in the Sprint.

Havre de Grace won the Beldame with ease and she looked the part of a champion every step of the way through this race. With Blind Luck's loss in the Lady's Secret, her arch rival Havre de Grace edges that much closer to her hopes at Horse of the Year honors.

Flat Out made it two for two over the Belmont dirt with his victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Stay Thirsty made a run at the winner, but it was too late. Drosselmeyer ran a nice effort to grab the place spot by making up ground in the last eighth of a mile, this effort could set him up well for the BC Marathon.

Get to know a BC prospect: To Honor and Serve

The Breeders’ Cup is a double-edged sword, what it offers in deep fields with an inordinate amount of quality horse flesh also takes away from other tracks due to trainers meticulously planning their schedules around having their horses ready for the big day. That being said it does help to scout and assess the top prospects leading up to the two days. Much like what we did for the lead up to the Kentucky Derby, we will do a series on these runners in their march towards November. Time to better get to know a Breeder’s Cup prospect.

Likely race he will be entered in: Classic

What’s old is new, back in the spring this Mott runner was not up to the rigors of the Triple Crown series and much like fellow juvenile superstar Uncle Mo he missed the big dance completely. Whatever problems he had are behind him after two straight authoritative wins at two turns going nine furlongs. Stamina for the mile and a quarter journey that he will likely embark on should not be a problem with Bernardini as the sire and the dam's sire being Deputy Minister.

With three races from the span of August 1st to September 24th and two wins to show from it, one being a win in the Pennsylvania Derby it is hard not say he is in top physical shape right now. The Classic has had its share of three-year-old colts take down the big prize. Curlin, Tiznow, and Concern come to mind; what is a recurring trait among them is that they put in strong efforts in their races leading up to the big day.

In To Honor and Serve’s Saratoga romp, his early pace figures against the adjusted average calls were twelve and eleven lengths faster than par and his speed figure was eight lengths faster when he was clear and coasting home. His biggest advantage may not be on pace and speed figures either, he was sidelined during the big three races in the spring. Now he is back as a fresh runner while the rest of his class has been butting heads for the past couple of months. If he remains sound and sharp he will be a dangerous runner on the big day of racing.

Grace Under Pressure

The last Saturday at Saratoga featured three grade one races, all with varying degrees of importance now that the calender has turned to September. The highlight of the day being Havre De Grace's attempt at beating the older colts.


The Personal Ensign was rescheduled from August 27th to this Saturday due to inclement weather. It didn't make a difference to Ask The Moon, who swept the distaff races at Saratoga with a wire to wire win. With the older filly division depleted beyond the top two (Blind Luck and Havre De Grace) and the three year old females yet to take on their elders, it should be an interesting set of fall races.


Jackson Bend spent last year chasing some of the better runners of his generation with nothing to show for it other than a few tough beats. What a difference a year makes, the sprint division is anyone's for the taking and his win in the Forego puts him squarely in the lead group of contenders for champion sprinter. The last few seasons the Forego has served as a highly important race earmarked by Midnight Lute and Big Drama winning the Breeders' Cup Sprint after a start in the Forego.


Rachel Alexandra used the Woodward as the end to a perfect season and Horse of the Year honors, this year Havre De Grace is trying the same path to the eclipse awards. Tracking Rule most of the way and being asked for run during the stretch when needed she was an authoritative winner. The race in all likelihood did not take as much energy out of the victor as it did Rachel Alexandra two years ago, Rachel was on the lead the whole way and had to fight off a few late challengers in order to stay perfect for the year. Havre De Grace avoided any dirt in the face and took a wide trip sweeping by Rule with ease, there is probably enough left in the proverbial tank for one more race before the end of the year. The prospectus of the colts and geldings aiming for the classic is not an imposing bunch, so it may be worth it for Havre De Grace to take another shot at the males in the Breeders' Cup Classic. She has already showed an ability to go the distance and that is half the battle in the Classic.

Tale of the Tape, Uncle Mo vs. Stay Thirsty

After this past weekend where Mike Repole’s two stars represented his stable very well, it seems like all the talk is about Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty. Andy Beyer made it the subject of his Wednesday piece in the Daily Racing Form and Stay Thirsty was the cover story on the Saratoga Special on the same day. Pletcher mentioned in passing after the events of the weekend his intention of not having his two champions not being in the same race during the fall. It only seems fair to match these two up in the way boxers are sized up before a prizefight in the tale of the tape.

Major NY Stakes wins
Uncle Mo: Champagne Stakes
Stay Thirsty: Gotham, Jim Dandy, and Travers
Edge: Thirsty, he is truly NY’s horse. It should be noted due to my general laziness that I am shortening up the names to Mo and Thirsty from this point forward.

Eclipse Awards
Mo: King of the Juvenile colts
Thirsty: Zero
Edge: Mo, there is no such thing as a cheap shot in this venue.

Starts in the 2011 Triple Crown
Mo: Zero
Thirsty: Two
Edge: Thirsty, what goes around comes around.

Powercap Nickname
Mo: Mr. Softee
Thirsty: No nickname given
Edge: Mo, to jest is to care. In hindsight we should have given a nickname to every starter in the Triple Crown series this year. Live and learn.

Respective Performances on August 27th
Mo: Photo finish loss after a five-month layoff with noted medical issues
Thirsty: Won the Travers
Edge: Push, if Mo had the benefit of a race before the King’s Bishop and a bit more in the way of works before the month of July he may have won that race.

Going Forward
Mo: Pennsylvania Derby? Vosburgh? Jockey Club Gold Cup? Who knows?
Thirsty: The main goal in all likeliness in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Edge: Thirsty, a defined course is better than being adrift at sea with no direction.

Beyer Speed Figure
Mo: 106
Thirsty: 101
Edge: Mo, even in defeat he puts up a lot of heat. He probably is a better one-turn runner than a router as well.

This is getting tiresome, after seven rounds of conjecture it is all tied up at 3-3 with one push. Well, this didn’t solve anything at all. Might as well have them run against each other at some point in the near future.