Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

03 January 2008

High takeout-the public loves it

Many players and writers are of the opinion that lowered takeout increases handle. In theory I agree with this thought, but a closer look reveals that lowered takeout does not increase wagering enough to justify the lowered takeout. Why is this? Perhaps the public is not sophisticated enough to divert their play to the pools with lowered takeouts? Have the tracks done enough to educate on low takeout pools? Is the wagering public primarily concerned with action and completely oblivious to takeout?

Over the summer 2007 Ellis Park experimented with a loss leader pick 4 with a unheard of 4% takeout. While the pick 4 pools did increase the experiment was deemed a failure as the increase in handle did not off set the reduction in takeout and the track lost revenue on the deal. The 4% takeout pick four has been nixed for the 2008 Ellis meet.

As you review the chart linked below, the three pools that should catch your attention is the NYRA two horse pools at 17.5% and the Sam Houston pick-3 at 12%. If your action is at NYRA the best deal is the exacta/daily double you are getting two bets at 17.5%, that 8.75% per leg. NYRA also has lowest strait pools in the country.

The lowest takeout pool in the country is unquestionably the Sam Houston Pick 3 at 12%. It is only 4% per leg. You would think that the public would be all over this pool. They are not. You could even say the 12% pick 3 is ignored. The trifecta even with a 25% takeout consistently has two to three time the handle of the pick three. If handicappers want low takeouts they must support them. Track management has to put its neck on the line to lower takeouts. If the public continues to ignore low takeout pools in favor of high takeout pools where is the incentive for track management to lower takeouts?

Lets compare the pick three to the three horse trifecta pool Sam Houston. The trifecta pool takeout at Sam Houston is more than double the pick 3 pool takeout (25%)
31 DEC07
Race 4 Pick 3 10.6K
Tri 26.6K
Race 5 pick 3 6.0k
tri 29.9k
Race 6 pick 3 8.1K
tri 29.5k
race 7 pick 3 10.0k
tri 26.0k
race 8 pick 3 8.0k
tri 22.3k
race 9 pick 3 10.6
tri 23.2k
race 10 pick3 12.0k
tri 26.0k

takeout chart

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